Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Mandarin Madness: Self-Fulfilling Prophesy

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As is the case in many trends and their ultimate outcomes, a strong perception of the "inevitable future" becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. Put succinctly, the belief becomes the truth because our actions in response to that belief make it so. The anticipated domination of  China in both the consumer and producer sectors has led to an increase in the number of students in industrialized nations who are learning to speak Mandarin. This is being encouraged by adding this language to the elective studies in high schools and colleges, and further fed by employment statisticians, economists and even professional and industry management recruiters who are preparing the next class of graduates for jobs where speaking Mandarin will give them the "edge."

It is also interesting that this phenomenon once applied to learning to speak Japanese in the late 1970s and in the 1980s in the United States, but to a smaller extent in terms of schools offering the elective and the number of students (as a percentage of total students) choosing to study.

The likely reasons that this newer wave of linguistic leaning is so much greater in proliferation and participation that the earlier one (i.e., learning to speak Japanese) are listed below:

1) The media are constantly speaking of China's inevitable rise to dominance, and the viralized potency of the new social media echoing this point did not exist during the "Japanese Period.";

2) There is less resistance to the idea than previously because their has been an increasing contingent of Asian-Americans and Asian-Europeans during the most recent 20-year span of time. This has had the secondary effect of infusing Chinese culture (and partially-Chinese offspring) into these countries with far more pervasive immigration than ever in history;

3) Unemployment is so intimidatingly high in the Western countries, that learning Mandarin is seen as a survival skill as well as a competitive advantage in accessing employment at the increased number of large firms which are multinationals and internationals. The increase in the number of major firms which are multicultural is simply the result of an increasingly globalized economy brought about through improved efficiencies in communications technology, an ever-increasing number of multi-national co-ventures;

4) University tuition has become so expensive (relative to the rise in cost of many other traditional family staples), that colleges and universities are trying to cater to the increasing market for students who want to be International Business majors. Colleges need tuition revenues from enrolled and matriculating students in order to survive in a very "dry" economy;

5) Referring back to point number 1), above, even articles like this one, with its catchy title (I am rather proud of it), are being amplified and reverberated throughout cyberspace by social media. In merely writing this article, I am contributing an increment of increased momentum and credibility to this Mandarin Madness.

An excerpt from an article which discusses this new international trendency (not a misspelling, but a Lingovation). It further validates the emerging interest in the perceived opportunities in the business of Planetary Geographical Arbitrage as it applies to both education and employment.

Remember this: "We shape the future by our reactions to anticipated visions of the future." 

Douglas E Castle
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Learning Mandarin gains momentum in European, US classrooms
Gains in China's economic standing also have brought about a greater desire for children in the United States and Europe to speak Mandarin, which is supplanting Spanish and German as the second tongue of choice in some schools. More than 3% of American elementary schools offer the language, a large increase considering less than 1% did during the 1990s. "One way or another, China is the future," said Olaf Mertens, a school headmaster in Belgium. The Globe and Mail (Toronto)/Financial Times (17 Oct.)

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by Douglas E Castle


Tuesday, November 1, 2011

College Education? Inevitable "Trend-ency".

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An excellent presentation regarding the current status of college and post-collegiate education and an emerging trend which portends a very sensible paradigm shift. This information appears courtesy of BigThink. But first, I'll give you the Douglas E. Castle perspective regarding The Future Of College Education.


Higher education (particularly in the United States) has gotten increasingly expensive -- to the extent that the average college graduate will emerge with from the endeavor saddled with hundreds of thousands of dollars of inescapable debt, no assurance of employment (or of any type of employment which could possibly generate an annual income as great as a single year's college tuition and expenses), and a very limited practical skill set. The question being asked by many is "What is my ROI on my bachelors or masters degree?" The answer, generally speaking, is far too little.

Several variables combine to produce an alternative trend in education which shows some promise for the future - at least for the students as prospective graduates and members of the workforce.

The variables are: increased cost, decreased utility and improved computer/educational technology. Welcome to the growing possibility of telecommuting your way to an advanced degree.

As a trend-spotter and a Global Futurist, I anticipate the precipitous decline of many universities with extensive physical infrastructure and burdensome fixed costs, a decline in physical college attendance, and an increase in online degrees. I don't believe that this will necessarily lead to a decline in the quality or availability of education (in fact, it will be a positive game-changer for both), but I do believe it will completely change the nature of the educational experience. Dormitory life, frat parties and the social and emotional growth and development which accompanied the traditional full-time, away from home collegiate 'rites of passage' will be gone.

Sadly, I believe that this will impair the development of self-disciplinary, decision making and social adaptation and integration skills which are created as ancillary benefits of the "going away to school" adventure. This may well leave future generations of telecommuted graduates less able to be self-directed and to socialize effectively in their working environments. In a society that is becoming de-socialized and de-personalized, this sea change in the delivery of education will accelerate these negative processes, leaving graduates with "sterile degrees" and a lack of crucial personal and interpersonal survival skills. This would seem to be a tragic loss.

But then, education, and the degrees conferred, will be more accessible to a greater percentage of the qualified prospective student situation. In the simplest terms, there will be more "geeks" and theorists (without any life experience) being produced, and fewer prospective marketers, strategists, leaders and other technical professionals produced.

We will feel this shift in the change of the character of the entrants to the workforce within the next year, with the trend to increase significantly during the course of the next ten years at very least. Many non-telecommuting US students will leave the US to study abroad (another cost-saving alternative), and they will be in great demand. Employers in the United States and, to a lesser extent, the other industrialized nations, will find it very difficult to find viable, socially-adept employees to help them build and sustain their companies.

Enjoy the presentation from BigThink which follows.

Rethinking Higher Education
Rethinking Higher Education
Adam Glick
A new online course that is currently being offered at Harvard, Yale and Bard is threatening to disrupt higher education as we know it. As tuition costs continue to skyrocket, parents and students are demanding answers to this question: what am I getting as the return on my $50 thousand annual investment that is college tuition today? Floating Univeristy offers an alternative. The best professors in the country present online lectures that students can access from anywhere. Watch » 
Douglas E Castle

p.s. "Trend-ency" or its variant, "Trendency" is indeed a Lingovation




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Tuesday, October 18, 2011

The Unnecessary Decline Of Civilization

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Civilization is essentially a business arrangement of convenience entered into by all parties so that each may be better benefited by the expertise, the experience and the contributions (in terms of cooperative and collaborative efforts harmoniously in synergy). A civilization is also very much like a multi-cellular organism, where each cell (i.e., participant) must be reasonably independent and self-managing, but also cooperative in terms of society's "business plan."

If the plan is unclear, if the roles of the participants are uncertain, if there are no policies (i.e., laws and parameters of conduct), or if those policies are capriciously applied without regard to balance, fairness, justice and predictability, and if incentives are not offered for doing things of benefit for society as a whole, the body of civilization disintegrates, as does any overripe, under-managed 'business' that has forgotten or chooses to ignore the reasons for which it was formed.

Every Human Being is a participant in civilization in multiple aspects and capacities.

A bloated system which ignores the notion of contribution and meritocracy, and instead embraces plutocracy, privilege and waste, will lose the faith, initiative and cooperation of its stakeholders (the participants), its employees (the participants) and its clients (the participants).

As the focus of our participants moves away from such once-thought-noble objectives as teaching and helping others; innovating and creating "new" things; gaining and maintaining a reputation for trustworthiness; self-growth; supported entrepreneurship; free and open dialogue and exchanges of ideas; a true opportunity to serve, and direct political elections based upon individual merits of candidates (and not based upon the sizes of their budgets); a streamlined government which does not itself act as an ever-growing parasite subsisting off of the contributions of the participants (hosts) and offering less and less service in exchange for more and more intrusive control at a higher and higher 'commission rate,' extorted in the form of taxes and money creation...we become increasingly (and perhaps preemptively) selfish.

The situation is exacerbated by feeble leadership, increasing inefficiencies, diminished expectations and a lack of positive reinforcement for genuine achievement. When people work for the government but the government doesn't work for the people, when greed eclipses good, when all assessment becomes subjective, the stage is set for a social decline.

Our decline has already begun, and is accelerating worldwide. As a business in the macroscopic sense, civilization neither turns a profit nor justifies, by the decreasing benefits which it bestows upon its participants, its very existence.

As Futurists, we must anticipate a decline in civilization if the implicit trends referenced above are not reversed -- and momentum, combined with typical Human reactivism, are driving us to the brink of some form of neo-feudalism with large enterprises as the warlords who will command us under the guise of protection.

Be prepared. There will be mush more to discuss on the implications, timing, risk mitigation, and intelligent intervention in order to either exploit this coming era of entropy (a seemingly immoral choice), or to plan to surf the coming tsunami.

It is painful to think that this is a generalized trend...poorer service, increased institutionalized lawlessness, de-personalization, diminished expectations and standards, unproductive expenditure and profligate 'bonus entitlement', is, in a sense the triumph of Humankind's animal Nature over the spark of divinity which I believe resides in most if not all of us.

In subsequent posts, we talk about what we need to do as individuals, as families, and as businesses owners and managers.

Douglas E Castle [http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com]

http://BusinessAndProjectPlanning.blogspot.com
http://InfoSphereBusinessAlerts.blogspot.com
http://TakingCommand.blogspot.com
http://SendingSignals.blogspot.com 


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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Cash As A Commodity: MiniTrend

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When banks hold onto cash and the amount of liquidity in the economy-at-large rapidly dries up, companies historically have responded reactively (impulsively) in the short run (starting six months after a media-magnified cash crunch and continuing into a period where indications in the economy point very strongly toward general inflation. Companies hoard troves of cash out of an amalgam of fear and greed -- fear that no further credit will be available to fuel expansion or to address unexpected needs, and greed -- where cash is scarce, and asset values (exclusive of exchange-traded securities) are declining either because of a shortage of viable buyers or customers, or because of anticipated worsening in the economy.

The rating of the United States as a sovereign credit may have been downgraded, and many are speaking about the decline of the value of the dollar vis-a-vis other currencies, but this is of little real consequence within the community of dollar holders with an eye for bargains and arbitrage. You need ready cash in order to be able to secure distress-sale bargains.

Viewing cash as a commodity, which so many fail to do, makes it increase in value when it is in shorter supply, and when it can be used to purchase even more than before in terms of larger-ticket income-producing assets, equipment, et cetera.

It might be well worth your while to have a look at an article just posted on The InfoSphere Business Alerts! Blog. The article can be accessed at http://infospherebusinessalerts.blogspot.com/2011/10/companies-hoarding-cash-no-self-banking.html.

The conventional wisdom would have us believe that corporations (as investing entities) would be fleeing dollars as a store of value, and running to invest in gold, or oil stocks, or FOREX. The fact of the matter is that Corporate America knows that large reserves of cash are wonderful to have in an economy where prices of many assets, supplies and resources are temporarily depressed. Expect corporations and large organizations, both US and international, to be piling up cash reserves until the prices of assets seem to have truly "bottomed out," or after the first few months (three to six months, generally speaking) of reports of rising general inflation.

Were I to hazard a guess, I believe that corporate self-banking, especially in US Dollars, will continue for at least another year to a year-and-a-half, and that reasonably-profitable small- to mid-sized companies are already starting to follow the example of the cash collectors...companies like Apple, for example.

Ironically, this self-banking in response to the contractionary credit environment is actually helping to support and bolster the value of the US Dollar. And that, friends, readers and colleagues, is not necessarily a bad thing.

Douglas E Castle [http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com]
InfoSphere Business Alerts And Intelligence [http://InfoSphereBusinessAlerts]




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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Deepening Divides: Megatrends To Watch - Part 2

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In mid-September, Deepening Divides: Megatrends To Watch - Part 1 was published. The article, which can be found at http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/2011/09/deepening-divides-megatrends-to-watch.html  addressed the nature of these social, economic, political, technological and other movements. They are not merely small waves, aberrations or market adjustments -- they are changes which take place over a rather long period of time, but which keep growing, unchecked, and ultimately lead to dramatic changes affecting all of Human civilization.

I referred to them categorically as Juggernauts. We tend to notice them, but since their effects don't seem imminent, or aren't sufficiently disturbing, we de-prioritize them -- we procrastinate until they are fully upon us. Then it becomes the traditional dance of pointing fingers, placing blame, and miserable crisis management.

The "deepening divides" are enabled, encouraged (I've personified them) and exacerbated because no one chooses to address them. When they become sufficiently intrusive, we tend to wonder, "When did this happen?" Like a tiny crack in the ice on a lake, they grow deeper and further, with unfathomably profound implications for the world and our species. I liken this to walking through the woods and hearing a slight buzzing; as I walk further, it becomes louder. Soon, I find myself stepping into a nest of bees, and I am fully ambushed by an unshakeable cloud of angry bees, stinging me until I fall over in anaphylactic shock, with my body swollen to the size of sea lion.

I brought myself right into the calamity by ignoring small but persistent signs... a gradual increase in the volume of buzzing. I was not vigilant and I failed to react quickly and pre-emptively. The greatest megatrends do not require the studies of a brilliant mind to recognize -- Futurists and journalists don't usually find them exciting or "sexy" enough to warrant serious coverage.

Some of the changes covered in the first Part of the Article are reviewed briefly below:

1) The United Nations will become increasingly irrelevant.
 
2) The average Human attention span will decrease very significantly.

3) Human immunological responses, resiliency and recovery abilities will wane, ushering in a decline in the general level of public health

4) Logistics, fulfillment and transport issues will become increasingly inefficient and technologically unsuitable, e.g., outmoded, to keep pace with the increasing demands for shipments of goods intranationally and worldwide.
 
5) An increasing percentage of the world's population will become poor.


To the above list, I would like to add the following to our Global Futurist vision. And bear in mind that any single one of these "sleeper changes" has the power, in and of itself to radically change the way each and every one of us lives:

6) Militaries, prisons, police agencies and other less media-covered and sensationalized functions of national governments will become privatized, and a handful of giant private contractors, without binding legal or ethical sovereign allegiance will essentially control the greatest concentration of each country's weaponry, as well as the power to terminate and incarcerate individuals almost at will. As Napoleon once said, "God is always on the side of the heaviest artillery." Individuals will essentially be controlled, if not enslaved by these huge monopolies;

7) The average age of individuals will increase, and the percentage of the population being considered as elderly (as of this moment, those individuals over 70 years of age) will increase. The quality of life for these people will decline, a greater number of them will be institutionalized, and many will be kept alive due to the continued profit motive driving healthcare providers to bilk third-party payers for all sorts of life-prolonging procedures, and for purposes of scientific experimentation. The elderly will be increasingly perceived by the young to middle-aged segments of the population as being a 'drain on the economic system'. This is a mindset that leads to frightening consequences if we permit our respective imaginations to wander down their darkest corridors.

8) There will be a dramatic increase in the direct private and dynastic ownership of companies and assets, and a flight from publicly-traded securities or paper debt and currencies. Volatility and growing distrust of the capital markets is beginning to lead the flow of wealth into direct participation in managed business. The Chinese are masterful at this. The Americans are not.

Investments will be increasingly assessed (i.e., valued) based upon their ability to generate recurring income for their owners, and less for the likelihood of a market killing. The gambling portion of the public will continue to play high stakes in the stock market, while the sobered and saddened one-time speculators will rebuild and store wealth in the form of direct ownership of income-producing assets. This could fuel a longer-term (more than eight years from now) rise in the value of multifamily dwellings, farmland, operating mines, smaller businesses involved in low-tech services and product manufacturing and distribution.

Imagine: "Hey, buddy! I've got a hot tip on a company that's going private."

9) Many of the "free to user" computer, internet, communications, publishing and social media services which have become dependent upon these free services will be shocked to find that the seemingly benign geek-born monopolists (Google, Twitter, Facebook, and others), are going to start billing consumers and businesses for services in the same way as any traditional utilities companies. This will force many entrepreneurs and start-ups into bankruptcy, and will cause their larger counterparts to increase prices significantly, as they simultaneously petition the various governments involved to intervene and regulate these rapacious business giants.

Be vigilant. Anticipate changes, Prepare plans and muster the will to put them into effect. These MegaTrends will not only be game-changing -- they will be revolutionary in every sense of that term.

Douglas E Castle [http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com]


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Monday, October 3, 2011

The Future: Site Construction Advisory!

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Apologies, dear readers and respected colleagues! We are currently in the process of re-constructing our blog templates in order to improve your reading, learning and interactive experience at each site. We should be able to resume a normalized, more frequent posting schedule by Wednesday evening, 5th October.

Thank you in advance for reading me. And more than this, thank you for your encouragement, support, responsiveness, constructive feedback and loyalty.

Your patience is deeply appreciated.

Faithfully and with respect,
Douglas E Castle

p.s. If you would like something quite interesting to read in the meantime, I would be delighted if you would have a look at http://aboutdouglascastle.blogspot.com/2011/10/man-versus-machine.html, and let me know your thoughts.

I would also appreciate your feedback on my most recent post (today) on a blog which has been too-long neglected and is now being reconstructed and re-activated. Visit http://BloggingTipsTricksAndTools.blogspot.com. The blog title is quite misleading (and more than a bit ironic), as you'll notice.

- DC

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Prediction: There's No Single Method.

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In my most recent post about using simple linear extrapolation as one of many possible tools which could prove useful in forecasting and preparing for certain events, I'm afraid that I made the terrible mistake (it isn't my first, and will not be my last) of failing to issue a whole roster of circumstances where this approach would not be ideal (if applicable at all), with an accompanying list of limiting parameters where this approach might certainly need to be adjusted significantly if not discarded altogether.

My intention [and perhaps the road to Hell is paved with good intentions] was to cite one very simple approach to discerning a trending pattern and where it might lead. I apparently mislead at least one reader into believing that I thought that linear extrapolation was the absolute best means to make predictions. Now, I hang my head in shame. The linear extrapolation approach to predicting the future has the following limitations, to state just several of a vast number:

1) It assumes a constant (linear) rate of growth or decline over time, which is seldom the case -- the patterns of history do not necessarily repeat themselves, rates of growth and decline are subject to variation, as are many other items. These factors may render our initial projection assumptions invalid;

2) It does not provide for changes in technology, resource availability, demand, competition, regulation, obsolescence, economic markets (fundraising, the cost of capital, the money supply, interest rates, and the like), natural disasters, amazing breakthroughs or the intervention on the part of the futurist making the prognostication in influencing the results via a mechanism correlative with the notion of a self-fulfilling prophesy;

3) It  does not provide for limited markets, holding capacities, or changes in either of these.

In a comment that I received regarding my now infamous post, Xamuel (whose insightful quote is printed below, unretouched) set me straight. Both The Global Futurist and Douglas E Castle humble ourselves before you, and apologize for misleading any of our readers. We also offer our sincere thanks for having this pointed out to us and our readers. Your input, negative, positive or neutral, is welcomed and encouraged. We learn from our mistakes.
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Xamuel said...
Linear extrapolation might work sometimes in, say, climatology. It's not going to predict the future worth a hill of beans, though. It completely misses any revolutionary new development-- by its very nature! Even besides that, it has a bad habit of ignoring holding capacities (say), and predicting (e.g.) that a sample of bacteria will rapidly fill up the entire universe.
Although I have been told never to make generalizations, I will take exception with this advice with reference to Futurists (and those people who love them): There is no single method for prediction. There are many approaches, but each has its own inherent limitations. My approach to drawing a futurescape involves a great deal of imagination, a great deal of data collection, and a combination of a large number of approaches, each with its own respective strengths and weaknesses.
Sadder still is the fact that unpredictable events happen during the course of the extrapolation period (which makes any forecast a moving target) which cause a need for us to re-evaluate our assumptions and our methods to be changed dynamically. Forecasting requires constant monitoring, adjustment and correction for the effects of reactive intervention or interference, self-fulfilling prophesies, and other recursive variables that blur the line between predicting the future and causing the future.

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