Cyberwarfare is here. There have already been attacks, both domestic and foreign in origin where a sophisticated and specialized virus was used to either steal data, destroy computer drives and systems, and, ultimately [referring to the case of the Stuxnet virus which crippled Iran's rapidly-developing nuclear facilities] targeting and destroying or neutralizing physical facilities. Consider these as warnings of our dependencies and vulnerabilities to computer-run lives.
Bear in mind that virtually all of every industrialized nation's infrastructure (i.e., power, traffic lights, communications, power plants, reservoirs, air transportation, military, police, fire departments, capital markets and almost every other thing that is essential to a civilization as we have come to know it) is completely dependent upon "nerve centers" of computers for automation and ongoing operation of everything. We have all, as individuals and as nation states, become completely dependent and addicted to computer technology.
With major international cyberwarfare (nation against nation, or groups of nations against groups of other nations divided by ideology, ethnicity, level of economic development, availability of fuels and key resources, etc.) it is not a matter of possibility, or even of probability -- it is simply a matter of when it will happen, who will initiate it, and what (or whom) the target will be.
Society's greatest enemy is also its greatest protector - the expert computer hacker. And nations invested in cyberdefense are recruiting hackers into their governments and into their military forces. What an irony. A brief article in The New York Times follows:
Bear in mind that virtually all of every industrialized nation's infrastructure (i.e., power, traffic lights, communications, power plants, reservoirs, air transportation, military, police, fire departments, capital markets and almost every other thing that is essential to a civilization as we have come to know it) is completely dependent upon "nerve centers" of computers for automation and ongoing operation of everything. We have all, as individuals and as nation states, become completely dependent and addicted to computer technology.
With major international cyberwarfare (nation against nation, or groups of nations against groups of other nations divided by ideology, ethnicity, level of economic development, availability of fuels and key resources, etc.) it is not a matter of possibility, or even of probability -- it is simply a matter of when it will happen, who will initiate it, and what (or whom) the target will be.
Society's greatest enemy is also its greatest protector - the expert computer hacker. And nations invested in cyberdefense are recruiting hackers into their governments and into their military forces. What an irony. A brief article in The New York Times follows:
Cyberwarfare Emerges From Shadows for Public Discussion by U.S. Officials
By SCOTT SHANE
WASHINGTON — For years, even as the United States carried out sophisticated cyberattacks on Iran’s nuclear program and the Pentagon created a Cyber Command, officials have been hesitant to discuss American offensive cyberwarfare programs openly. Since June, in fact, F.B.I. agents have been investigating leaks to The New York Times about the computer attacks on Tehran.
But the reticence is giving way. The chorus of official voices speaking
publicly about American cyberattack strategy and capabilities is
steadily growing, and some experts say greater openness will allow the
United States to stake out legal and ethical rules in the uncharted
territory of computer combat. Others fear that talking too boldly about
American plans could fuel a global computer arms race.
Next month the Pentagon’s research arm will host contractors who want to
propose “revolutionary technologies for understanding, planning and
managing cyberwarfare.” It is an ambitious program that the Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency, or Darpa, calls Plan X, and the
public description talks about “understanding the cyber battlespace,”
quantifying “battle damage” and working in Darpa’s “cyberwar
laboratory.”
James A. Lewis, who studies cybersecurity at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies in Washington, says he sees the Plan X public
announcement as “a turning point” in a long debate over secrecy about
cyberwarfare. He said it was timely, given that public documents suggest
that at least 12 of the world’s 15 largest militaries are building
cyberwarfare programs.
“I see Plan X as operationalizing and routinizing cyberattack
capabilities,” Mr. Lewis said. “If we talk openly about offensive
nuclear capabilities and every other kind, why not cyber?”
Yet like drone aircraft,
which similarly can be used for both spying and combat, American
cyberattack tools now are passing through a zone of semisecrecy, no
longer denied but not fully discussed. President Obama has spoken
publicly twice about drones; he has yet to speak publicly on American
cyberattacks.
Last week, at a public Cyber Command legal conference, the State Department’s top lawyer, Harold H. Koh — who gave the Obama administration’s first public speech on targeted killing of terrorists in 2010 — stated the administration’s position that the law of war, including such principles as minimizing harm to civilians, applies to cyberattacks.
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What are the implications for the near-term and the longer-term? The Global Futurist Blog examines them, and makes some trend-supported predictions:
1) CEOs, world leaders and the Elders of dynastic families will form strategic partnerships and alliances with skilled hackers;
2) An increased percentage of the budget of every business, government and dynastic family's income and assets will spent upon or invested in computer security;
3) The unspoken demand for hackers as either espionage participants of as security consultants will be greater (within the next 12 months) than the demand for any other type of professional or worker;
4) Government and quasi-government agencies (such as contractors) will be conducting limited cyber attack exercises on innocent civilians domiciled in their own countries and in foreign countries. There will be colossal collateral damage and a great deal of lying and whitewashing in order to cover it up by those responsible for giving the orders;
5) While true Artificial Intelligence is something that will be developed in the more distant future, a great deal of the world military's technological focus will be on combining computer science with robotics and weaponry.
Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist Blog, The Internationalist Page Blog and The Links 4 Life Alerts Blog.
