Eight Technologies Will Dominate The Near-Term Future

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EIGHT TECHNOLOGIES WILL SHAPE THE NEAR-TERM FUTURE

According to an IBM-led study of C-Suite executives, these are the technological foci (focuses) which will shape the near-term (3-5 years) future. While C-Suite executives tend to be fadists more than Global Futurists, the power of the effect of their self-fulfilling prophesy must be given its due. It might be a good exercise to at least understand the aspects and implications of each of these innovative areas before we judge the C-Suite denizens too harshly.

Cloud Computing And Related Services:

Cloud computing, also known as on-demand computing, is a kind of internet-based computing, where shared resources and information are provided to computers and other devices on-demand. It is a model for enabling ubiquitous, on-demand access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources.

Cloud computing and storage solutions provide users and enterprises with various capabilities to store and process their data in third-party data centers. It relies on sharing of resources to achieve coherence and economies of scale, similar to a utility (like the electricity grid) over a network. At the foundation of cloud computing is the broader concept of converged infrastructure and shared services.

Cloud computing is a model for enabling ubiquitous, convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort.
Cloud computing, or in simpler shorthand just "the cloud", also focuses on maximizing the effectiveness of the shared resources. Cloud resources are usually not only shared by multiple users but are also dynamically reallocated per demand. This can work for allocating resources to users. For example, a cloud computer facility that serves European users during European business hours with a specific application (e.g., email) may reallocate the same resources to serve North American users during North America's business hours with a different application (e.g., a web server). This approach helps maximize the use of computing power while reducing the overall cost of resources by using less power, air conditioning, rack space, etc. to maintain the system. With cloud computing, multiple users can access a single server to retrieve and update their data without purchasing licenses for different applications.



Mobile Solutions:



Definition

Mobile solutions refer to the online services that are made available to users while they are on the go. Mobile solutions technology has not only traversed geographical boundaries but has also accessed various domains. Providers of the technology continue to provide services in many different countries through by making use of the many developments in mobile technology. Today, this technology continues to give services in tune to today’s urban mobility needs.

Components

The first component is wireless data networks. This refers to an electronic communications process that allows the orderly transmitting and receiving of data through the use of a wireless network of computers. The next component is wireless data modems. These are devices that allow computers to connect to a wireless local area network (WLAN) without wires or cabling for transmitting and receiving data. 2 Devices need this in order to connect to networks. The third component is mobile computers. These are devices that are wireless ready. These can be easily connected to wireless modems and run wireless enabled applications. These include laptops and notebook computers, handheld computers, palm-sized computers and many more. Next is wireless middleware. Middleware is defined as software that connects different parts of an application or a series of applications. The last component is wireless-enabled applications. These refer to programs and other software that can be readily used once connected to a network.

Functionality and General Uses

There are many mobile solutions providers all over the world. Each provider strives to set itself apart from the other providers by boosting its competitive advantage through differentiation, lower costs and the formation of alliances with leading companies.
Mobile solutions providers have an array of services. Some providers focus purely on payment solutions. Some providers offer an electronic wallet feature that allows businesses to make or accept payments, accept international and local credit card payments and industry specific payments using only their mobile phone. There are also providers that offer online hotel reservations with a deposit, ticketing solutions for events and events organizers, mobile banking and other electronic payment services.
Some providers offer mobile solutions for personal use. Some make use of services such as information alerts and notifications, travel updates, news alerts, sports updates and horoscopes. Other mobile solutions providers have brought the chat services to a whole new level through personal chat, dating and personal consultations. Some providers generate great profit by providing entertainment to their clients through quizzes and games, jokes and cartoons, videos with the use of mobile phones with 3G.
Some providers focus on mobile solutions for providing corporate or business use through file storage, file sharing and mobile e-mailing system. Some companies involved in direct selling also make use of short message service or SMS to allow their customers to check availability of stocks, updates on products, check distribution address and other details for their business. The most common use of mobile solutions technology today is for direct marketing. Companies are able to utilize mobile solutions for their promos and contests and brand advertisements. They are able to advertise their products and services through SMS. Because of the popularity of SMS all over the globe, most companies make use of this as their medium in their promotions.



The Internet Of Things (IoT):



The Internet of Things (IoT) is an environment in which objects, animals or people are provided with unique identifiers and the ability to transfer data over a network without requiring human-to-human or human-to-computer interaction. IoT has evolved from the convergence of wireless technologies, micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) and the Internet. The concept may also be referred to as the Internet of Everything.
The Internet of Things (IoT) is the network of physical objects or "things" embedded with electronics, software, sensors, and network connectivity, which enables these objects to collect and exchange data. The Internet of Things allows objects to be sensed and controlled remotely across existing network infrastructure, creating opportunities for more direct integration between the physical world and computer-based systems, and resulting in improved efficiency, accuracy and economic benefit. Each thing is uniquely identifiable through its embedded computing system but is able to interoperate within the existing Internet infrastructure. Experts estimate that the IoT will consist of almost 50 billion objects by 2020.
British entrepreneur Kevin Ashton first coined the term in 1999 while working at the Auto-ID Labs (originally called Auto-ID centers - referring to a global network of RFID connected objects). Typically, IoT is expected to offer advanced connectivity of devices, systems, and services that goes beyond machine-to-machine communications (M2M) and covers a variety of protocols, domains, and applications. The interconnection of these embedded devices (including smart objects), is expected to usher in automation in nearly all fields, while also enabling advanced applications like a Smart Grid, and expanding to the areas such as smart cities.
"Things," in the IoT sense, can refer to a wide variety of devices such as heart monitoring implants, biochip transponders on farm animals, electric clams in coastal waters, automobiles with built-in sensors, or field operation devices that assist firefighters in search and rescue operations. These devices collect useful data with the help of various existing technologies and then autonomously flow the data between other devices. Current market examples include smart thermostat systems and washer/dryers that use Wi-Fi for remote monitoring.
Besides the plethora of new application areas for Internet connected automation to expand into, IoT is also expected to generate large amounts of data from diverse locations that is aggregated very quickly, thereby increasing the need to better index, store and process such data.



Cognitive Computing:



Cognitive computing is the simulation of human thought processes in a computerized model.
Cognitive computing involves self-learning systems that use data mining, pattern recognition and natural language processing to mimic the way the human brain works. The goal of cognitive computing is to create automated IT systems that are capable of solving problems without requiring human assistance.
Cognitive computing systems use machine learning algorithms. Such systems continually acquire knowledge from the data fed into them by mining data for information. The systems refine the way they look for patterns and as well as the way they process data so they become capable of anticipating new problems and modeling possible solutions.
Cognitive computing is used in numerous artificial intelligence (AI) applications, including expert systems, natural language programming, neural networks, robotics and virtual reality. The term cognitive computing is closely associated with IBM’s cognitive computer system, Watson.
Cognitive computing (CC) makes a new class of problems computable. It addresses complex situations that are characterized by ambiguity and uncertainty; in other words it handles human kinds of problems. In these dynamic, information-rich, and shifting situations, data tends to change frequently, and it is often conflicting. The goals of users evolve as they learn more and redefine their objectives. To respond to the fluid nature of users’ understanding of their problems, the cognitive computing system offers a synthesis not just of information sources but of influences, contexts, and insights. To do this, systems often need to weigh conflicting evidence and suggest an answer that is “best” rather than “right”.
Cognitive computing systems make context computable. They identify and extract context features such as hour, location, task, history or profile to present an information set that is appropriate for an individual or for a dependent application engaged in a specific process at a specific time and place. They provide machine-aided serendipity by wading through massive collections of diverse information to find patterns and then apply those patterns to respond to the needs of the moment.
Cognitive computing systems redefine the nature of the relationship between people and their increasingly pervasive digital environment. They may play the role of assistant or coach for the user, and they may act virtually autonomously in many problem-solving situations. The boundaries of the processes and domains these systems will affect are still elastic and emergent. Their output may be prescriptive, suggestive, instructive, or simply entertaining.



Advanced Manufacturing Technologies:



Advanced manufacturing technology is defined as computer-controlled or micro-electronics-based equipment used in the design, manufacture or handling of a product.
Typical applications include computer-aided design (CAD), computer- aided engineering (CAE), flexible machining centres, robots, automated guided vehicles, and automated storage and retrieval systems. These may be linked by communications systems (factory local area networks) into integrated flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) and ultimately into an overall automated factory or computer-integrated manufacturing system (CIM).



New Energy Sources And Systems:



There are the variations on the fossil fuel formulations and then there are the “alternative” energy sources which either minimize or negate any carbon footprint and are ecologically more desirable.
The variations on the fossil fuel formulations include more extensive offshore drilling and fracking, which is the process of drilling down into the earth before a high-pressure water mixture is directed at the rock to release the gas inside. Water, sand and chemicals are injected into the rock at high pressure which allows the gas to flow out to the head of the well. Both drilling and fracking have their share of pro-environmental opponents, perhaps with valid reason.
Everyday, the world produces carbon dioxide that is released to the earth’s atmosphere and which will still be there in one hundred years time.
This increased content of Carbon Dioxide increases the warmth of our planet and is believed by many to be the main cause of the so-called “Global Warming Effect”. One answer to global warming is to replace and retrofit current technologies with alternatives that have comparable or better performance, but do not emit carbon dioxide. This is generally referred to as alternate energy.
By 2050, one-third of the world's energy will need to come from solar, wind, and other renewable resources. Who says this? British Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell, two of the world's largest oil companies, do. Climate change, population growth, and fossil fuel depletion mean that renewables will need to play a bigger role in the future than they do today.
Alternative energy refers to energy sources that have no undesired consequences such for example fossil fuels or nuclear energy. Alternative energy sources are renewable and are thought to be "free" energy sources. They all have lower carbon emissions, compared to conventional energy sources. These include Biomass Energy, Wind Energy, Solar Energy, Geothermal Energy, Hydroelectric Energy sources. Combined with the use of recycling, the use of clean alternative energies such as the home use of solar power systems will help ensure Humankind's survival into the 21st century and beyond.



Bioengineering:

Bioengineering is the application of the life sciences, physical sciences, mathematics and engineering principles to define and solve problems in biology, medicine, health care and other fields.

Bioengineering is a relatively new discipline that combines many aspects of traditional engineering fields such as chemical, electrical and mechanical engineering. Examples of bioengineering include:

• artificial hips, knees and other joints
• ultrasound, MRI and other medical imaging techniques
• using engineered organisms for chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturing
  

This vast field of integrating or developing mechanical, electrical or design skills to either perform work on, or to become integrated with physiology, also subsumes aspects of stem cell research, the Human Genome Project, cloning and biometrics. These are all terms worth being familiar with, as they will become more and more prominent in the practice of medicine and life sciences in general, and due to the high likelihood of an increasing number of very large companies (conglomerates) who will be investing increasing sums into the research and development of biomedical engineering.



Man-Machine Hybrids [Does Anyone Remember “Robocop”?]:



Yes, indeed... remotely man-operated drones may be considered a crude example of man-machine hybrids (more likely they are man-machine partnerships), but Futurist and scientist Ray Kurzweil has a fascinating view of what true-man-machine hybrids are and will be, and what their potential might be.
Human brains will be boosted with artificial intelligence at some point after the year 2030, one of the foremost thinkers on Artificial Intelligence has said.
The brain will connect to online Artificial Intelligence to become a “hybrid of biological and non-biological thinking”, Ray Kurzweil, director of engineering at Google, suggested.
Tiny “nanobots” made from DNA strands would connect our brains to the internet, allowing us to augment our own intelligence with artificial intelligence, he said.
Professor Stephen Hawking, noted physicist, mathematician, cosmologist and Futurist has expressed fear that Artificial Intelligence might eventually be the undoing of our species and lead to our ultimate demise as a species.
This subject has considerable overlap with biomechanical and biomedical engineering, except that in these last two fields of endeavor, the physical body is integrated with robotic or artificial parts or enhancements, without a change in the basic operation of the Human mind. In Kurzweil's view of the future, the mind will be an amalgam of native Human (organic) thought and neurological capabilities with computer intelligence, storage, pattern recognition and enhanced learning and retention capabilities.



The take-away from all of the foregoing information is not necessarily that each of the areas identified will be one of the “Next Big Things” within the coming three to five-year period; but it is a safe bet to assume (and we all know what happens when we count too much on assumptions) that each of the identified areas will be where C-Suite executives, in their capacities as decision makers, will be investing money and time. Carrying this a step further, The Global Futurist and Global Edge International Consulting Associates, Inc. would see that these anticipated expenditures of money, time and focus are actually leading indicators of the growth and dominance in business and society of these technologies. Being a bit conservative, one might think that these technologies will come to market dominance during the next five to seven-year period, allowing for this “lead indicator effect”.


As always, thank you for reading me.

Douglas Castle, for The Global Futurist, Global Edge International Consulting Associates, Inc. and The Global Edge International Blog

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NOTE: THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED BY THE READER AS BEING LEGAL, FINANCIAL, TAX, ACCOUNTING, ECONOMIC OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. NO OFFERING OF SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENT INTERESTS OF ANY TYPE IN ANY ENTITY IS MADE HEREBY, NOR IS A SOLICITATION FOR THE PURCHASE OF SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENT INTERESTS OF ANY TYPE IN ANY ENTITY MADE HEREBY. THIS ARTICLE IS INTENDED FOR GENERAL INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND REPRESENTS THE VIEW OF THE AUTHOR ONLY.

THIS ARTICLE IS COPYRIGHT 2015 BY DOUGLAS E. CASTLE, WITH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ANY REPRODUCTION, TRANSMITTAL OR DISTRIBUTION OF THIS ARTICLE, EITHER IN WHOLE OR PART, IS UNAUTHORIZED AND MAY BE UNLAWFUL, UNLESS FULL ATTRIBUTION IS GIVEN TO THE AUTHOR AND ALL LINKS IN THE ARTICLE REMAIN INCLUDED AND “LIVE.” 

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THE GLOBAL FUTURIST – Douglas E Castle

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com

Discovering and following significant trends across an extensive range of domestic and international consumer, business, demographic, cultural, economic, political, technological and other key areas of influence and impact on life and business; predicting future change, preparing for it and profiting from it.

Key Terms: business, forecasting, trends, future, prediction, disruption, displacement, innovation, complexity theory, economic waves and cycles, projections, planning



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The Disruption Of Our Future -- 4 Predictions -- Douglas E. Castle

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In a future warped around an increasing frequency of disruptive innovations, there will be great displacement, confusion, and much social, financial and emotional tribulation. Innovation may well a positive thing (per se), but the accelerating pace of the occurrence of innovations can (and will) leave many struggling to survive in the inevitable trauma of its deepening wake. This wave of disruptions, like a hailstorm, has already begun raining down upon us.

For the uninitiated, disruption is defined by Dictionary.Com as "... a radical change in an industry, business strategy, etc., especially involving the introduction of a new product or service that creates a new market..." By definition, disruption certainly sounds, in this context, like a positive thing, and it may well be, once it has reached its point of stabilization.

While the end of a disruptive event may produce a favorable outcome, there is apt to be a great deal of mayhem while things, i.e., changes, are "settling in". But in a futurescape scenario where disruption is layered upon disruption, that state of mayhem will be protracted and increased significantly in severity.

On our planet, we are entering an era, or perhaps an epoch, of accelerating disruptions. These may well be as traumatic to our species as a catastrophic meteor shower or a steepening climatic change. Human beings are generally resistant to change in general, whether it be advantageous or disadvantageous.

Change upsets our equilibrium and violates our 'default setting' of constancy and complacency. Going further, it could be said that a fair amount of predictability in our lives serves to keep us sane... walking upright in a straight line instead of falling all over ourselves in a situation of randomly changing gravity.

Amid this wave of accelerating disruptions, The Global Futurist anticipates the following trends [although we are not in the business of offering any type of investment, tax, financial, legal or other advice] during the next several years' time:

1) Transitional unemployment will increase dramatically. Individuals will not only be between jobs, but between careers. At present, the United States government (through the Bureau Of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve) reports a total unemployment rate of only 5.3%, the actual rate of people out of work but in need of employment (as reported by some very influential Wall Street advisers as of the date of this writing) may be in excess of 25%. As accelerating technological change eliminates many middle-management and other types of jobs across multiple industry sectors, The Global Futurist anticipates an increase in the 25% statistic to in excess of 33% by 2018, although the official pronouncements of the government and mainstream news media will not report this. Expect a higher crime rate and a burgeoning underground economy;

2) Smaller, more entrepreneurial enterprises will rise up in innovation, productivity, visibility and stakeholder value over short time frames, while they will be overtaken by technologically superior successors rapidly, giving them a reduced business lifespan of perhaps a mere 3 to 5 years;

3) A greatly increasing percentage of consumer income will be expended (despite the decreasing prices of various technologies and technology-based items) on purchasing updated, and upgrading items to replace the increasing amounts of techno items. At present, consumers are spending between 17% and 19% of the amount of their annual rent or mortgage payments on technological upgrades and updates. With accelerating obsolescence, the implicit consumer mandate will drive this percentage higher -- perhaps to as much as 25% by as early as 2018. This translates to reduced consumer income for survival expenditures and investment;

4) Due to the foregoing trends, an increasing portion of the population of industrialized nations will be living below the poverty line, with the middle class (the traditional backbone of stability for most every economy) all but disappearing. At present (by way of example) approximately 14.5% of the United States population, or 45 million persons live below the poverty line as defined by the U.S.  government, down from a higher number in the year 2000. This trend away from poverty will reverse by 2018, and the reversal will be significant -- perhaps as high as +/- 18% by the end of 2018.

Generally speaking, this tsunami of accelerating disruptive events will create more loss than actual opportunity until a deceleration of this onslaught can be reached; but with increased instability (i.e., via disruption) comes increased volatility (in life and in the capital markets) and decreased security for individuals and organizations. Just as virtual communications are de-socializing us as fully-sensory beings, an increasing amount of our Humanity and any of its associated benefits can be expected to decay in a radioactive field of aggressive, undeterred accelerating disruption.

This effect will continue until the perceived value of stability finally begins to outweigh the perceived benefits of unbridled disruption. At this point in the evolution of society, industry and capital markets in industrialized nations, the newly positive ideological construct of disruption innovation may just be a bit overrated. I'm neither a technophobe nor a Luddite, but I have learned to take the more distant and larger view when it comes to change. There's a storm, and we've already begun to feel its first winds.

Thank you, as always, for reading me.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist, Global Edge International Consulting Associates, Inc., and the Global Edge International Blog

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THE GLOBAL FUTURIST – Douglas E Castle

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com

Discovering and following significant trends across an extensive range of domestic and international consumer, business, demographic, cultural, economic, political, technological and other key areas of influence and impact on life and business; predicting future change, preparing for it and profiting from it.

Key Terms: business, forecasting, trends, future, prediction, disruption, displacement, innovation, complexity theory, economic waves and cycles, projections, planning



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This site is proudly affiliated with Global Edge International Consulting Associates, Inc. ["GEI”]
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The Virtual Workplace: The Inevitable Disruption - Douglas E. Castle

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The virtual workplace is more than just a tech-speak catchphrase. It is revolutionary, and its effects will be felt in every quarter. The Virtual Workplace - The Inevitable Disruption is a topic worthy of consideration to every trend spotter and every futurist.

The virtual workplace is increasingly becoming the norm, while the traditional brick and mortar offices housing the companies' headquarters are becoming increasingly obsolete - more symbolic of the "old paradigm" businesses. Companies are leaning to the extreme in the direction of telecommuting, and expect these disruptive and progressive trends to be on the rise. Please bear in mind that this article does not provide financial or investment advice:

1) Virtual meeting software and platforms will be in increasing demand. Citrix, WebEx and their other market-dominating peers are going to be experiencing competition for their market space due to the increasing demand for virtual forums;

2) Companies will be retaining more independent contractors and employing fewer in-house employees in order to reduce staffing costs and personnel-related overhead;

3) Commercial real estate will be taking a tumble as companies move to virtual environments and away from renting and purchasing buildings and office space;

4) An increasing number of 1 - 5 person corporations and limited liability companies will be formed as contracting and outsourcing increase and direct corporate employment decreases. Incorporation and registered agent businesses such as Legal Zoom and The Company Corporation will be experiencing increased revenues and market demand, as will their less-dominant competitors;

5) The demand for IT and computer systems professionals will increase, disrupting and displacing many middle-management, administrative and accounting positions;

6) Internationalism, in terms of globally-diversified markets and supply chain structure, will be on the rise as outsourcing and offshoring increase;

7) E-commerce will be displacing and outpacing traditional retail commerce;

8) Tax collections by governmental agencies will become increasingly difficult as the traditional employer-employee structure becomes increasingly displaced and de-centralized;

9) The utilization of household interior space will be shifting in favor of a greater percentage of work-at-home or home office space versus family and leisure space;

10) Society will become increasingly destabilized, and interpersonal and communications skills will suffer greatly due to a breakdown in the traditional face-to-face meeting paradigm.

The rise of the virtual workplace will ultimately affect every aspect of society, from simple reading and writing skills (declining) to the deterioration of international boundaries and political barriers (through outsourcing, offshoring, e-commerce and independent contracting). Be prepared for a radical change in all markets and marketplaces. This all-encompassing sea change is already underway and should be anticipated to accelerate in its course and severity over the next three to five years. After that, watch out for the rise of Artificial Intelligence.

Thank you, as always, for reading me.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist

Please join me on LinkedIn!








THE GLOBAL FUTURIST – Douglas E Castle

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com

Discovering and following significant trends across an extensive range of domestic and international consumer, business, demographic, cultural, economic, political, technological and other key areas of influence and impact on life and business; predicting future change, preparing for it and profiting from it.

Key Terms: business, forecasting, trends, future, prediction, disruption, displacement, innovation, complexity theory, economic waves and cycles, projections, planning



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This site is proudly affiliated with Global Edge International Consulting Associates, Inc. ["GEI”]
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Transforming Ideas Into Reality - Douglas E. Castle

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Transforming Ideas Into Reality

New 3-D Printing Technology Is Revolutionizing The Art And Pace Of Innovation And Invention

By: Douglas E. Castle For THE GLOBAL FUTURIST Blog

I've heard it said that “What the mind can conceive, humankind can achieve.” This notion of transforming ideas into reality is nothing especially new. Visionaries work at converting their ideas, plans and schematics into corporeal, tangible substance. This process has historically been an arduous one, requiring promotion, evangelism, acceptance, engineering, testing and fabrication through mechanical production methods. In brief, the meandering path from an idea (at inception) to a viable, functional product or service has generally been a lengthy and tenuous one, with many otherwise great ideas failing to attain actual materialization along the way. Too many brilliant ideas have never been actualized. The Law Of Attraction may well be in effect, but it operates in a rather slow and indirect way...

This has all changed, and is continuing to change at an accelerating pace, due to the introduction and ongoing development of three-dimensional computer technology which can directly convert drawings into tangible, three-dimensional output. While the output is, generally speaking, somewhat crude, the underlying technological engine of the 3D printers is constantly improving, and the creations being rendered are improving in quality, as well. We are not speaking of arts and crafts, but of the potential to generate human tissue and human organs – and more. This incredibly efficient transformation of thought into matter will revolutionize medicine, manufacturing, technology and life. Although I do not provide investment or financial advice, it is becoming increasingly apparent that investments in companies which design and create 3D software and printers (i.e., the hardware and other peripherals) may well become extremely valuable.

Going further, this emerging technology can be expected to cause substantial displacement over a very wide range of more “traditional” industries, and a significant number of companies [as well as the value of their shares] can be anticipated to be adversely affected.

Following is some additional information relating to this revolutionary technology:

http://3dprinting.com/what-is-3d-printing/#whatitis

https://www.google.com/#q=3d+printing+stocks

https://www.google.com/#q=3d+printing+companies

Thank you, as always for reading me.

Douglas E. Castle

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Douglas E. Castle, displacement, disruption, 3D printing, accelerating technology, investing, innovation, medicine, stocks.

NOTE: THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED BY THE READER AS BEING LEGAL, FINANCIAL, TAX, ACCOUNTING, ECONOMIC OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. NO OFFERING OF SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENT INTERESTS OF ANY TYPE IN ANY ENTITY IS MADE HEREBY, NOR IS A SOLICITATION FOR THE PURCHASE OF SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENT INTERESTS OF ANY TYPE IN ANY ENTITY MADE HEREBY. THIS ARTICLE IS INTENDED FOR GENERAL INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND REPRESENTS THE VIEW OF THE AUTHOR ONLY.

THIS ARTICLE IS COPYRIGHT 2015 BY DOUGLAS E. CASTLE, WITH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ANY REPRODUCTION, TRANSMITTAL OR DISTRIBUTION OF THIS ARTICLE, EITHER IN WHOLE OR PART, IS UNAUTHORIZED AND MAY BE UNLAWFUL, UNLESS FULL ATTRIBUTION IS GIVEN TO THE AUTHOR AND ALL LINKS IN THE ARTICLE REMAIN INCLUDED AND “LIVE.”

THE GLOBAL FUTURIST – Douglas E Castle

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com

Discovering and following significant trends across an extensive range of domestic and international consumer, business, demographic, cultural, economic, political, technological and other key areas of influence and impact on life and business; predicting future change, preparing for it and profiting from it.

Key Terms: business, forecasting, trends, future, prediction, disruption, displacement, innovation, complexity theory, economic waves and cycles, projections, planning

The Imminent Global Business Disaster

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The Imminent Global Business Disaster

The Next Major Worldwide Economic Crash Affecting Consumers And Businesses Alike

Anticipated Crisis To Occur During The Period Between 2015 And 2016

There is a high likelihood of a global business disaster on the near-term horizon, i.e., within a one- to two-year time frame. This disaster is most probably going to be felt the hardest in the United States, where it will have the potential to decimate all but a few government-entrenched and privileged businesses, and to sink all dollar-denominated investment portfolios, regardless of traditional investment diversification. This course to calamity is anticipated to be caused by a confluence (a simultaneous occurrence) of several major economic and banking trends and specific events. The collapse is anticipated by The Global Futurist and other predictive writers and organizations to last for a period of ten to twelve years once it has hit. I refer to the coming threat as a “business” disaster, because business is the offspring of economics that allows for supply and demand to function, and for the existence of commerce and consumerism...

Factors Involved In The Collapse:

=> Further unification and strengthening of the Eurozone Central Banking System – Europe's building of its own independent multinational bank and banking system with a greater circulation and acceptance of the Euro, and with a greater utilization of Euro-denominated financial instruments and commodities purchases, both B2B (business to business) and B2C (business to consumer) throughout the world;

=> A precipitous decline in U.S. Domestic stock prices as predicted by the trending of the economic wave known as “Dow Megaphone Wave” which has accurately predicted the timing and amplitude of every major stock market collapse and resurrection over the past twenty years;

=> The growing acceptance of cybercurrency (such as Bitcoin) as a medium of exchange and a store of value in lieu of investment in and utilization of bank-backed sovereign currencies;

=> The increasing national indebtedness and decline in real savings in the United States – an economy built on debt and artificially propped up by government employment creation and expenditures – especially those expenditures which are fiscally re-cycled back into increasing the size of government, all to the unfortunate displacement of the productive private sector;

=> A declaration by the Bank For International Settlements (the “BIS,” one of the least known and understood as well as secretive and powerful international policy-making bodies in the world) that the United States Dollar is no longer the preferred reserve currency to be held by banks worldwide, leading the dollar into its steepest decline in recorded history.

The above trends and events could lead to the most severe business, economic and consumer crisis since the debacle of 2008, when the world's leading financial institutions demonstrated historically unprecedented irresponsibility, corruption and a total lack of contrition. The systemic cracks in the world's underlying economic foundation have not been repaired, and the business and consumer environments have not gained significant strength in their areas of long-embedded habitual weakness such as an increased ratio of borrowing to spending and an increased ratio of borrowing to saving. Hyper-leverage leads to disastrous results for consumers and businesses – this is, or should be, a matter of common sense.

Defense Strategies Before The Event Of A Collapse:

=> Basic survivalism – the stockpiling of non-perishable foods, potable water, fuel and the like – it is not ridiculous to keep an eye on what the “Doomsday Preppers” are doing and to follow their example, but not to a ridiculous extreme. Don't have a false sense of confidence because the government and mainstream media would have you believe that things have gotten better – this latter notion is utterly ridiculous. You cannot make a nation truly prosperous by perpetuating bad fiscal hygiene. You cannot perpetually repay debt with more borrowing and expect profit to result. Losses can only truly be reversed by significant ongoing increases in productivity.

=> Diversify your savings and investment holdings geographically and in terms of currency denomination – don't concentrate your dollars in any one industry, technology, country or currency; be an Internationalist. Consider investing balances in cybercurrencies. Cybercurrencies will only be bolstered by devaluation of bank-supported sovereign currencies. Since cybercurrencies are a P2P (“peer-to-peer”) variant on the theme of barter, i.e., where no banks are involved and interest charged, they are becoming a serious contender for the conduct of business and commerce, which is currently infested and controlled by banks in virtually every aspect. Incidentally, when I refer to cybercurrencies, I am using that term synonymously with electronic currencies and virtual currencies, for they all refer to the same concept;

=> Borrow up to your maximum in U.S. Dollars in order to purchase non-U.S. Dollar-denominated investments in cybercurrency, foreign currencies and tangible (but necessary and functional) assets currently at distressed prices, such as residential real estate in densely-populated areas and actual, physical commodities that have some practical use. Avoid obsessing over precious metals and exchange-traded commodities which become non-necessities in a survivalist worldscape; their values will reflect reality and not speculation in the trough of a long, deep depression. In terms of tangible commodities of true value, think in terms of such useful physical items as power generators, meal rations, medical supplies, solar panels, water purifiers, potassium iodide and the like. Items of this sort can be sold or traded at a substantial premium in a worst-case economic scenario. This is truly thinking “outside of the box” and “inside of the shelter”;

=> Insure your valuables to the greatest and most practical extent possible for damage and theft. Similarly hedge your investments and insure your portfolio, and be certain that you have both business interruption insurance and personal loss of income insurance if you are conventionally employed;

Don't be a lender expecting to be paid back in U.S. Dollars. It would be wiser to be a borrower while rates are artificially low, and to be paid back in cybercurrency or tangibles of true and lasting value. And be certain to have a disaster recovery strategy in place for your business as well as for your personal life. Private companies which deal in survivalism are making ever-increasing profits as a function of the populace’s suspicious that the economic outlook in the coming years may be less than rosy — and these businesses will be reaping fortunes in the trying times imminently ahead. If you can dedicate or re-purpose a portion or segment of your business to survivalism, this might provide a wise hedge against an uncertain and dangerous future.

Think about it and consider acting upon it sooner rather than later.

Douglas E. Castle

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NOTE: THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED BY THE READER AS BEING LEGAL, FINANCIAL, TAX, ACCOUNTING, ECONOMIC OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. NO OFFERING OF SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENT INTERESTS OF ANY TYPE IN ANY ENTITY IS MADE HEREBY, NOR IS A SOLICITATION FOR THE PURCHASE OF SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENT INTERESTS OF ANY TYPE IN ANY ENTITY MADE HEREBY. THIS ARTICLE IS INTENDED FOR GENERAL INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND REPRESENTS THE VIEW OF THE AUTHOR ONLY.

THIS ARTICLE IS COPYRIGHT 2014 BY DOUGLAS E. CASTLE, WITH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ANY REPRODUCTION, TRANSMITTAL OR DISTRIBUTION OF THIS ARTICLE, EITHER IN WHOLE OR PART, IS UNAUTHORIZED AND MAY BE UNLAWFUL, UNLESS FULL ATTRIBUTION IS GIVEN TO THE AUTHOR AND ALL IMAGES AND LINKS IN THE ARTICLE REMAIN INCLUDED AND “LIVE.”

THE GLOBAL FUTURIST – Douglas E Castle

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com

Discovering and following significant trends across an extensive range of domestic and international consumer, business, demographic, cultural, economic, political, technological and other key areas of influence and impact on life and business; predicting future change, preparing for it and profiting from it.

Key Terms: business, forecasting, trends, future, prediction, disruption, displacement, innovation, complexity theory, economic waves and cycles, projections, planning

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Prediction: There's No Single Method.

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In my most recent post about using simple linear extrapolation as one of many possible tools which could prove useful in forecasting and preparing for certain events, I'm afraid that I made the terrible mistake (it isn't my first, and will not be my last) of failing to issue a whole roster of circumstances where this approach would not be ideal (if applicable at all), with an accompanying list of limiting parameters where this approach might certainly need to be adjusted significantly if not discarded altogether.

My intention [and perhaps the road to Hell is paved with good intentions] was to cite one very simple approach to discerning a trending pattern and where it might lead. I apparently mislead at least one reader into believing that I thought that linear extrapolation was the absolute best means to make predictions. Now, I hang my head in shame. The linear extrapolation approach to predicting the future has the following limitations, to state just several of a vast number:

1) It assumes a constant (linear) rate of growth or decline over time, which is seldom the case -- the patterns of history do not necessarily repeat themselves, rates of growth and decline are subject to variation, as are many other items. These factors may render our initial projection assumptions invalid;

2) It does not provide for changes in technology, resource availability, demand, competition, regulation, obsolescence, economic markets (fundraising, the cost of capital, the money supply, interest rates, and the like), natural disasters, amazing breakthroughs or the intervention on the part of the futurist making the prognostication in influencing the results via a mechanism correlative with the notion of a self-fulfilling prophesy;

3) It  does not provide for limited markets, holding capacities, or changes in either of these.

In a comment that I received regarding my now infamous post, Xamuel (whose insightful quote is printed below, unretouched) set me straight. Both The Global Futurist and Douglas E Castle humble ourselves before you, and apologize for misleading any of our readers. We also offer our sincere thanks for having this pointed out to us and our readers. Your input, negative, positive or neutral, is welcomed and encouraged. We learn from our mistakes.
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Xamuel said...

Linear extrapolation might work sometimes in, say, climatology. It's not going to predict the future worth a hill of beans, though. It completely misses any revolutionary new development-- by its very nature! Even besides that, it has a bad habit of ignoring holding capacities (say), and predicting (e.g.) that a sample of bacteria will rapidly fill up the entire universe.

September 27, 2011 5:55 PM 

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Although I have been told never to make generalizations, I will take exception with this advice with reference to Futurists (and those people who love them): There is no single method for prediction. There are many approaches, but each has its own inherent limitations. My approach to drawing a futurescape involves a great deal of imagination, a great deal of data collection, and a combination of a large number of approaches, each with its own respective strengths and weaknesses.

Sadder still is the fact that unpredictable events happen during the course of the extrapolation period (which makes any forecast a moving target) which cause a need for us to re-evaluate our assumptions and our methods to be changed dynamically. Forecasting requires constant monitoring, adjustment and correction for the effects of reactive intervention or interference, self-fulfilling prophesies, and other recursive variables that blur the line between predicting the future and causing the future.

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Trend-Spotting: The Key To Entrepreneurial Business Planning

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Trend-Watching (or "Trend-Spotting") is one of the key functions of every entrepreneur, leader, strategic planner. It can be a tool for locating an emerging business opportunity or idea -- the basis for the start of a business or an entire industry. More importantly, it is an ongoing responsibility necessary in order to avoid corporate or technological extinction.

The biggest mistake made by most otherwise brilliant project managers, visionaries, strategic planners and business captains is a failure to consistently and attentively watch trends, and to create alternative future scenarios which may impact the organizations which they serve. That is why I originally created The Global Futurist Blog, one of the many infomedia blogs and RSS feeds available in the TNNWC constellation of publications, news media, alert bulletins and intelligence instruments.

Recently, the world witnessed a calamitous failure of its capital markets and banking systems -- the warning signs had been there for several years, but those individuals in charge were trying to maximize profits by taking advantage of a market that was not only falling apart -- but a market which could not possibly sustain the level of greed and expectation of value appreciation that these giant institutions were betting on. They were blindsided by a tidal wave that they had bought into, fed and brought upon themselves, as well as upon the peoples of the world.

Words of Wisdom:

1) Live in the present, but with a constant eye toward the future;

2) There is nothing wrong with making a profit and getting out of the game with your winnings;

3) Always diversify your portfolio, both offensively and defensively;

4) Invest in intelligence and be proactive after being briefed on the findings;

5) Incorporate flexibility and the ability to pivot (keep your GO bags packed for any mission that might require your immediate responsiveness) in your organizational structure...regardless of large you become or how successful that you are.

Sad Reminders (in no particular order):

The Titanic, 8-Track Tapes, Leisure Suits, Triangle Shirtwaist Fire, The Hindenberg, Milli Vanilli, colchicine, asbestos, lead paint, bell bottom jeans (and platform shoes), The Fall of The Twin Towers on 9/11, styrofoam cups, Japan's nuclear meltdown, the Theremin, Aunt Jenny's Fruitcake Recipe...you can probably continue without me...

Following is a story from AP (Associated Press) about the decline of Atlantic City, New Jersey, in the United States. It is a study in failure to observe trends and make course corrections:

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Monopoly lost: Atlantic City's rise and fall

By WAYNE PARRY, Associated Press Tue May 31, 2:44 pm ET

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. – Four years ago, some Atlantic City casino customers were shelling out $1,000 for a brownie sprinkled with edible gold dust in a Baccarat crystal they could take home.

Nowadays, some wait until 11 p.m. to eat so they can get a steak dinner for $2.99.

At the beginning of 2007, Atlantic City's 11 casinos were at the top of a wave of prosperity. Starting with the 1978 opening of Resorts, the nation's first casino outside Nevada, Atlantic City for years was the only place to play slots, cards, dice or roulette in the eastern half of the United States. The cash kept pouring in, the busloads of visitors kept coming and the revenue charts went one way: straight up.

And then, they didn't. Now, battered by competition from casinos all around it, Atlantic City is in a fight for its very survival.

The resort is furiously trying to remake itself into a vacation destination that happens to have gambling, but with no guarantee it has a winning hand even as other threats loom, including the possible expansion of casinos to north Jersey racetracks and a growing push for online gambling.

Intoxicated by years of success, Atlantic City missed numerous opportunities to diversify its offerings, widen its customer base and fend off competition that clearly was on its way even 20 years ago.

"The atmosphere was a total irrational exuberance; it truly was," said Robert Griffin, CEO of Trump Entertainment Resorts, who worked at Trump properties here in the 1980s and 1990s. "There was a feeling that there was no end to the good times and that the money would never end."

Then, disaster struck the nation's second-largest gambling market. A perfect storm of competition right on its doorstep in Pennsylvania, New York and Delaware, coupled with the recession, pummeled Atlantic City worse than any other casino market. In four years, a billion and a half dollars vanished, along with thousands of jobs and tourists. Pennsylvania, with its 10 casinos, is poised to knock Atlantic City into third place at some point next year.

How did things go so wrong so fast?

___

Cars streamed into Atlantic City on May 26, 1978, and people lined the Boardwalk for blocks, waiting to get inside Resorts on the first day it was legal to gamble there.

People bought tickets for buffets they had no intention of eating, just to sneak inside the casino earlier than the rest. Men relieved themselves into plastic coin cups to avoid losing their spot at the tables by going to restrooms. And cash — more than anyone had ever seen and more than management could imagine — flooded into the counting room, to the point that it took nearly an entire day to count it.

"It was euphoria," said Steve Norton, who was Resorts' executive vice president when it opened and now runs a casino consulting firm in Indiana. "I mean, it was an unbelievable time."

One after another in the 1980s, casinos kept coming. Revenues reached a high point of $5.2 billion in 2006.

And then the Pocono Downs harness racing track in Luzerne County, Pa., added slot machines and opened them to the public on Nov. 14, 2006. Suddenly, people in the heart of one of Atlantic City's key feeder markets could drive 10 or 20 minutes to play the slots instead of making a three-hour round trip to Atlantic City. In less than four years, there would be 10 casinos in Pennsylvania, all of which now offer table games, too.

They took in nearly $2.5 billion last year, approaching Atlantic City's $3.6 billion. So far this year, they are running neck-and-neck: $996 million for Pennsylvania, and $1.1 billion for Atlantic City.

"If you didn't anticipate this competition coming, you were asleep at the wheel," said Israel Posner, executive director of the Lloyd Levenson Institute of Gaming at Richard Stockton College of New Jersey.

David Schwartz, director of the University of Nevada-Las Vegas Center for Gaming Research, said Atlantic City can be successful again, "but it's going to require a reinvention."

"Basically, the city needs to stop looking backward and start looking ahead," he said.

A look back reveals many missteps and lost opportunities. The most obvious: a failure to reinvent the resort as a place to go for more than gambling. Atlantic City belatedly jumped on the bandwagon, adding non-gambling amenities over the past eight years like celebrity restaurants, spas, shopping and top-name entertainment. The Borgata even built a stand-alone luxury hotel called the Water Club, and Harrah's indoor pool has become a cash cow, doubling as one of the city's hottest nightspots.

But back then, anything customers couldn't bet on was seen as a waste of money.

"Nobody wanted to build anything other than casinos," Norton said. "The property values shot up so high, it didn't make sense to build anything else."

There's plenty of blame to go around. Casino owners focused only on their own properties instead of the market as a whole, a habit that Atlantic City is only recently shaking off. Competing against each other instead of Las Vegas was the city's playbook for decades.

Now, the casinos are banding together for joint marketing efforts, and will chip in to help sponsor the biggest names in entertainment, rather than letting one casino pay the whole cost of a Britney Spears or Lady Gaga show, or a rodeo. And three casinos are even thinking of jointly funding a new convention or trade show center in Atlantic City to draw badly needed midweek business.

New Jersey also erred by failing to approve legalized sports betting in 1991 when it was given the chance to do so ahead of a nationwide ban, gambling experts say. A state senator sued the federal government in 2009 to overturn the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, but the suit was dismissed by a federal judge last month.

___

When Griffin, the Trump CEO, lays his head on the pillow at night, he worries that New Jersey will one day succumb to political pressure from lawmakers in the more populous northern part of the state to expand casino gambling to the Meadowlands racetrack, 10 minutes from New York City. Analysts expect it would instantly become a $1 billion market. State law now allows casino gambling only in Atlantic City.

"That would devastate us," he said. "This would become a two-casino town; it wouldn't even take five years. That's what keeps me up at night."

Maddie Downey, a bartender at the Showboat, has her own worries. The single mom has already lost one casino job when the Sands closed in 2006, and worries that gas prices will stay near $4 a gallon, keeping people away from Atlantic City.

"I'm just glad to have this job," she said. "I just hope it doesn't get any worse, and I hope the price of gas comes down."

When the Indian-run Foxwoods casino opened in Connecticut in 1992, it was the closest casino to Atlantic City — and a sure sign that more were to come. Mohegan Sun, another tribal casino, opened in Connecticut four years later. The resort responded by allowing its casinos to stay open 24 hours a day; they formerly had to close for a few hours in the wee hours of the morning. It also introduced new games like poker, keno and racing simulcasts.

But the money kept coming in, and the two Connecticut casinos didn't prove to be a major problem for Atlantic City, which sat on its cards. No new casinos opened until the Borgata in 2003, which would usher in a new era of grand dreams — very few of which would ever come true.

The Borgata touched off a casino arms race, with companies from across the country vying to build the next mega-resort here. At the start of 2008, there were plans for as many as four new casinos; MGM Mirage unveiled a $5 billion, three-tower casino project that would have been the largest ever built here.

Pinnacle Entertainment blew up the Sands to make way for its own $2 billion casino resort, modeled on a beach house. Before setting off the explosives that would bring it down, then-CEO Dan Lee spoke of the importance of keeping the market fresh, new and exciting. The challenge, he said, is "to compete in this new world, or be the next implosion."

Yet by the end of 2008, Pinnacle and MGM's projects imploded on their own, and Revel, the first of the new projects to actually put shovels in the ground, was limping along. It would run out of money in 2009 and halt construction on the interior. Morgan Stanley, its major financer, walked away from the project, deciding it was better to take a nearly $1 billion bath on the deal than to stay in Atlantic City.

After scouring the globe for financing, including asking the Chinese government, Revel CEO Kevin DeSanctis finally secured new financing in February 2011 that allowed the project to resume, with some state tax incentives.

"Every market got hit, but nobody faced the amount of new competition coming online as much as Atlantic City did," said Larry Mullin, who was president of the Borgata at the time and now runs an Australian casino company. "We were just exposed. Nothing was going to stop the convenience customer from trying a product that was closer to them. I just don't think there was any silver, magic bullet. It was a very tough situation."

___

Torn between demands from the New Jersey casino and horse racing industries, New Jersey's incoming governor, Republican Chris Christie, sided in 2010 with the casinos, which provided more tax revenue to the state's coffers. He refused to allow slot machines at the racetracks — something the racing industry has long wanted to keep pace with its competitors in other states.

New Jersey staged a quasi-takeover of Atlantic City's casino and tourist zones; Christie called it "a partnership." But the new tourism zone is run by the state and takes charge of many functions Atlantic City's often dysfunctional municipal government had long struggled with, including safety, cleanliness and economic development. (At one point just a few years ago, four of the previous eight mayors of Atlantic City had been arrested on corruption charges.)

The $30 million in annual payments that the casinos had to pony up to the horse racing industry, in return for keeping slots out of the tracks, will now be used to market Atlantic City nationally. The state rewrote many of its famously strict regulations for casinos, removing, among other things, minimum staffing requirements. They even allowed casinos to keep some jackpots that had built up on progressive slot machine games that they decide to cancel.

State-mandated economic redevelopment funds collected from each casino will now be used solely for projects within Atlantic City; before, the money was spread around the state.

The help cannot come too soon. Casinos are selling at fire-sale prices. Within the past year, The Tropicana, Resorts and Trump Marina have all sold for about 10 cents on the dollar from their values of just a few years ago. The Atlantic City Hilton stopped paying its mortgage in 2009 and is looking for a buyer. The casinos have shed nearly 15,000 jobs since 1997, with more layoffs to come.

The extra marketing money is crucial to Atlantic City's future, said Frank Fantini, a Delaware casino consultant and publisher.

"If it can create that same, "I gotta go party!' atmosphere that Las Vegas has, it ought to be able to work," he said.

Griffin, the Trump CEO and Casino Association president, said Atlantic City should bottom out at around $3.5 billion, then slowly start to grow again.

"There's a lot of pain coming, but I strongly believe that in 2012 you're going to see us coming back," he said. "I definitely think better days are ahead for Atlantic City."

Could that be a new marketing slogan for Atlantic City? Most of America seems to know that "what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas." Yet how many people can correctly cite Atlantic City's tourism slogan, "Always Turned On"? The resort is thinking of a new slogan.

The effort has been going on for three years.

####

And so it goes.

If you are outside reading a book (assuming they are not rendered technologically obsolete by pads and tablets, and they they are not ordered to be burned by some repressive inbound political regime as you are reading this) under a shade tree, look up at the skies every so often just to be certain that the clouds aren't thickening with the threat of rain.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

Note: This article was written by author Douglas E Castle and originally published in Entrepreneurial Advice and Insights and titled, "Trend-Watching: The Vigilant Entrepreneur"

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