Showing posts with label History. Show all posts
Showing posts with label History. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

The Future Of War - And There Will Definitely Be A Big Future In It.. 4 Predictions For The Next Half Century

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War, and the obsessive urge to compete violently may be the result of some combination of hard-wired protective instincts (as in 'the best defense is a good offense'), hunter-gather deep-brained programming and societal environmental factors. There is a sad element of anti-social pragmatism to war, conquest and domination... it is far easier to take from another (by overpowering or outmaneuvering that person) than to go through the rigors of earning or creating our own.  The unspoken question has always been, "If I could steal it from somebody else instead of struggling to earn it, which would I choose, as a rational Human Being, if I could get away it, and go unpunished or unopposed.

The sense of entitlement so often associated with those who have already tasted great power and wealth (and also, just as sadly, with those who have lived on the dole or on government hand-outs for several consecutive generations) plays out like this...

"The middle class make it, and the entitled ones take it."

Philosophically, war may well be a more efficient means of satisfying some of our primitive and basic needs (as contrasted with Maslow's Heirarchy Of Needs), in that it is essentially a means of commerce (don't laugh) where you, as the conqueror, dominator, victor or racketeer simply get what you need at minimal cost, with minimal time and minimal effort. 

Children, when very young, steal toys from each other much of the time; each thinks of himself or herself as being the center of a localized universe, where instant gratification is right, and there are no other opinions or consequences to consider. Grownups embezzle, steal, defraud, rob and pillage to acquire the means to suit their needs through what are considered antisocial tactics and strategies. This is an economically driven choice.

But then, there are those who will do damage to the property and persons of others simply because of a sociopathic compulsion to inflict pain. Others love conquest and view it as a sport, or as a basic means of indisputably demonstrating superiority.

War has a long history. It dates back as far as archeological records indicate. And it has a guaranteed future. There are very few things of which a Global Futurist or a trend-spotter can be so certain. War has much more in its favor than does peace.

War provides a staging ground for testing new technology -- things like the atomic bomb, drones, poisons and pestilences;

War provides a laboratory for us to test the limits of the human body and mind -- the soldier makes a great test subject (with or without informed consent) for things like LSD, DMT, steroids, amphetamines and a host of other drugs, psychological operations and technologies that some less-than-empathetic scientists simply must "take for a spin." The Nazis did it. The Russians did it. And the Americans have done it.

But most importantly, war provides and opportunity to either stimulate a sluggish economy, distract the suspicious or disgruntled citizenry ("Let 'em worry about the war! It'll keep 'em too busy to question some of our slickery [a Lingovation] and keep 'em too busy to mount an internal rebellion."), and to make certain of us incredibly wealthy. Heck - don't you see the other, more mundane meaning in the time-honored designation "Soldier of Fortune"?

The following is an excerpt from a posting (more like a treatise) by a gentleman named Paul Mattick on The Economics Of War, published in 2010. Take a deep breath, and read it in its fullness:

Ever since Lord Keynes’ dictum that wars—like pyramid-building and earthquakes—may serve to increase wealth, it has been increasingly recognized that war and preparation for war are necessary aspects of the prevailing economy and a condition of its proper functioning. Because, in recent history, only inflation and war have resulted in full utilization of productive capacities, the question has been raised whether this association between war and full employment is an accident or a necessity. It is usually answered with the assurance that, although it is no accident, it is not a necessity, for government expenditures can lead to full employment whether they are geared to the needs of war or to the requirements of peace. With full employment as the sole goal of economic activity, even people opposed to war do not seriously object to the creation of "wealth" in the form of armaments and military installation, even though they may prefer "wealth" in the form of social welfare. Quite independent of preferences, government spending includes an always growing amount for purposes of defense. The "military wealth" of the United States is said to exceed $124 billion. This "Real and Personal Property of the Defense Department" does not include investments in atomic energy estimated at $12 1/2 billion, nor the properties of the "National Plant and Equipment Reserve," nor the supplies and equipment in overseas depots, nor the military assistance to allied and favored nations. The great bulk of the inventory consists of things that can be used up, wasted, or that will become obsolete. The Defense Department is actually a tremendous business enterprise. In 1955, for instance, it spent more than $42 billion, or about one-seventh of the national income. It was directly responsible for the employment of close to 4 1/2 million people, or about 7 percent of the national labor force. As always, so now, too, there is much talk of cutting government spending and reducing the budget deficit. This economy talk, however, does not include spending for military purposes. On this point both "savers" and "spenders" think alike. The "defense establishment," as the President made clear recently, "is an exception to the general desire of living within the amounts set by the Budget Bureau after it had cut the spending requests." Opposing all cuts and arguing for increased government spending, Truman’s former chief economist Leon H. Keyserling found it necessary to complain that "we remain content with a defense strength far below the minimum judged essential by most experts." But then, spending for defense loses its sinister implications when it is referred to as ‘‘rising cost of peace." 
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Aside from the economic lure of war, as stated before, there is the in situ experimentation process which accompanies the profiteering activity. This is discussed in an article excerpted from BigThink, which I have read several times. Please take a moment to read it and let your mind run free in an imaginary futurescape of endless wars. After that preparatory exercise, please come back for several predictions about war which I would like to share with you. Really. PREDICTIONS.

DANGEROUS IDEAS [From BigThink Ideafeed]
Military Readying Mind-Reading Equipment for the Battlefield
Mind reading devices that can alert soldiers to things they've seen, but that their brains aren't yet aware of, could save lives. Some scientists worry it could also extend the theater of war.
READ NOW
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During the next half century, there will be a great deal of wars. But they will be different in many ways than they have ever been before. As this entry is being written, the reader should bear in mind that more than 70% of the world's proclaimed and recognized sovereign nations are involved in militant hostilities, either directly or indirectly...


FOUR PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE WARS OF THE NEXT HALF CENTURY:

1) Much of nation-to-nation warfare will be conducted utilizing remote robotic technology (drones and the like), computer hacking (and cracking) to destroy key utilities, subliminal messaging through the social media, and communications blackouts or blockades (to destroy command and control, and to keep the citizens or subjects of a targeted nation from being able to communicate without physical contact. Viral propaganda and computer viruses will play major roles [front and center] in generalized full military and civilian attack strategies;

2) Ground warfare (infantry), and air warfare, both physical and logistical by their nature will utilize combined technologies incorporating: stealth; motion detection; heat signatures; infrared; encrypted radio satellite uplinks and downlinks for precise geolocation and constant communication; weaponry using advanced supersonic and subsonic psycho-emotional disruption; plasma waves, laser weapons, and localized climatic disturbance weapons and variations on the augmented railgun will be used in lieu of conventional automatic weaponry and explosive devices because of the increasing demand for A) non-nuclear weapons with high megadeath and geographical coverage potential, or, [ironically] B) because of their tactical targeted precision - each the opposite of the other, yet both complements of each other;

3) There will be sobering incidences of the use (limited to major cities and to portions of countries) of chemical and biological weapons, as well as a weaponized deployment of  swarming nanotechnology -- this last technology is analogous to a swarming of bees with a united goal, instant telepathic communications (as if of one mind), and heuristic adjustments to overcome impediments to target neutralization -- this man-made peril could have more killing potential as biological and chemical weapons;

4) Most substantial strike forces will be privatized armies (mercenary forces) with allegiance only to the multinational mega-companies which either contract with them or which own them captively as defenders and as internal company profit centers. These soldiers will be true warriors, psychologically, emotionally and physically engineered and trained for targeted destruction. There will be experiments with, and the testing of machine "enhancements" implanted into these warriors.
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IN SUMMARY:

It promises to be a dim future for law and a bright future for order, as war becomes a privatized, incorporated enterprise, Loyalties will be tested and shifted. The geographical boundaries of many of the countries as we now know them will be altered. My prediction is for the emergence of a high-technology replay of Medieval times -- a frightening version of a science fiction writer's combination of incredible technolgies in the hands of brutes with Middle-Ages mindsets. 

I am frightened of our invariable movement in this unenlightened direction.





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Thursday, August 4, 2011

Socio-Ecomic Waves, 40-Year Business Cycles And The Pendulum Effect.

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This fascinating piece follows from the MondayMorningMemo, produced and published by the iconic Roy C. Williams, the self-proclaimed (and occasionally very insightful) "Wizard Of Ads." His words ring ominously true upon the ears of every true futurist, trend-watcher and socio-economic forecaster.

History, like a bad lunch, has a tendency to repeat itself. And history tends to swing from extreme to extreme (the pendulum effect) in various astonishingly predictable waves and cycles of time. These reactionary paradigm shifts are not predicated upon the extrapolation of "cause and effect" logic, but on periodicity -- certain lengths of time. Remember the movie "Groundhog Day"?

Ironically, some of these predictable swings can be foreseen by checking your calendar without even taking a look at trending news. Like the life cycle of a Human Being, it would seem that the World has a rhythm of its own. And it would seem that this rhythm is exogenously determined by a force beyond our individual or collective consciousness or abilities to control. I will leave this contemplation to the reader, as it involves issues well beyond my depth, expertise or certainty.

Douglas E Castle

http://TheGlobalFuturist.blogspot.com
http://www.TNNWC.com

You'll find Roy's treatment of this subject as fascinating as you will find it frightening......

"Let me start at the beginning:


We see the world through the lens of an entirely different set of values every 40 years. We become a different people.


We are pulled 20 years up from the tipping point to the zenith of a “We” (1923 to 1943.)
We swing 20 years down to the next tipping point (1963.) Tipping points are interesting times.


We are pulled 20 years up to the zenith of a “Me” (1963 to 1983.)


We swing 20 years down to the next tipping point (2003.)


Eighty years is a complete cycle but there are only 40 years between the extremes. (The 1943 zenith of “We” to 1983 zenith of “Me.”)


We’re nearly halfway up to the next zenith of “We" (2023.) 2011 is 1931 all over again. But instead of being gaga over a thing called “radio” we’re gaga over this thing called “online.”


A new set of values every 40 years...


On one side are the values of “We,” the team, the tribe, the group working together, staying connected.


On the other side are the values of “Me,” the individual, unique and special and possessing unlimited potential.


“Me”

1. …demands freedom of expression.
2. …applauds personal liberty.
3. …believes one man is wiser than a million men, “A camel is a racehorse designed by a committee.”
4. …wants to achieve a better life.
5. …is about big dreams.
6. …desires to be Number One. “I came, I saw, I conquered.”
7. …admires individual confidence and is attracted to decisive persons.
8. …leadership is,Look at me. Admire me. Emulate me if you can.”
9. …strengthens a society’s sense of identity as it elevates attractive heroes.


“We”


1. …demands conformity for the common good.
2. …applauds personal responsibility.
3. …believes a million men are wiser than one man, “Two heads are better than one.”
4. …wants to create a better world.
5. …is about small actions.
6. …desires to be a productive member of the team. “I came, I saw, I concurred.”
7. …admires individual humility and is attracted to thoughtful persons.
8. …leadership is, “This is the problem as I see it. Please consider the things I am telling you and perhaps we can solve this problem together.”
9. …strengthens a society’s sense of purpose as it considers all its problems.


“Me” and “We” are equal-but-opposite attractions that pull our perspective one way, then the other. Western society swings like a pendulum from one set of values to the other every 40 years with the regularity of an old and reliable grandfather clock.


“Me” and “We” values are equally good, but we always take a good thing too far.

If history is to be our guide, the next 20 years will be when we move from our agreement of mutual brokenness, “I’m Not Okay – You’re Not Okay,” to embrace a self-righteous indignation, “I’m Okay – You’re Not Okay.” Sanctimonious vigilante-ism will become popular as indignant leaders demonize their enemies and rally their followers by appealing to their inborn sense of rightness and social obligation, “Let’s clean this place up and to hell with compromise. They are entirely wrong and we are entirely right. They are stupid. We are wise. They are evil. We are good.”


The last time we went through this, America formed a committee in Congress called the House Un-American Activities Committee (1938) which later watched with glee while Senator Joseph McCarthy destroyed countless careers by recklessly branding his enemies as “Communists” and creating the infamous blacklists.


This sounds a bit far-fetched, doesn’t it? I know it does. I'm writing because I want you to be able to look back and recall how absurd this all sounded when I first told you what was on the horizon if history can be trusted.


A self-righteous nut with a gun killed dozens of people in Norway and believed he was doing the right thing.


That’s the problem with self-righteous nuts; they always believe they’re doing the right thing.


Roy H. Williams
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Observation: We cannot predict or prepare for the future without taking into account these "temporal Pendulum swings" and cycles. An accurate forecasting model or algorithm requires that these seemingly exogenously-determined or caused cycles be given inclusion and proper weighting. -- DC
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