TRENDS at 7 August 2008

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WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES.

Dear Friends:

It is almost the middle of August, 2008, and the economy of the World is in turmoil. The exact causality is not known, despite what the pundits might tell us after the fact, as they usually do. Sadly, they give very conditional and nebulous advice in terms of facing what lies unseen ahead of us, but they enjoy a lively ex post facto (e.g., too late) debate about why things happened...about the why of history.

The three principal benefits of studying history are 1) understanding human eccentricities and propensities; 2) understanding the conditions at present, and how we have arrived at the position which we are in; and, lastly, 3) to predict the future.

Please take a moment and re-read the top line, printed in honest blue. Some crucial trends (and their projected course for the next three years) are cited below for you to think about, investigate and act upon if you are inclined to maximize your potential benefits and to minimize your potential losses.

UNEMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT and ENTREPRENEURSHIP

With Fortune 500 Companies and the Financial Institutions Sector losing credibility, liquidity, market share, and opportunities for upward mobility, unemployment will rise to levels not seen since the Great Depression in the United States, with the World following at a short lag. Many of the best US minds will "outsource themselves" to become expatriates in other countries with greater opportunity. In a wicked twist of social darwinism, the void in the United States will be filled with less-skilled immigrants belatedly chasing the American Dream. The remaining major corporate employers will hire these individuals at lower wages, lower standards and with the expected result of declining productivity and quality of service.

I suspect that US and G-8 corporations will continue to outsource every single function which is not geographically sensitive. At this moment, the US is an exporter of jobs, training, investible dollars and talent. Despite the decline of the US Dollar, expect this trend to continue, and at an accelerating pace.

The principal survival skills in the coming economy will be frugal living, flexibility, mobility and entrepreneurship. Job security will become something that can no longer be vested through seniority - it will have to be made by each individual through finding a niche and a means of profiting by serving it. Education will be far less of a success-determining factor than innovation. Entrepreneurship is powerful, personal and portable. Expertise in certain vertical technological fields will be almost as potent as entrepreneurship. A combination of technical expertise and entrepreneurship, using the World Wide Web as a medium will indeed be an unbeatable combination.

I would suggest that you carefully review author Adam J. Kovitz's Laws Of Relationship Capital , and take a second look at author Jay Goldberg's straightforward, no-nonsense book titled: HOW TO GET, KEEP AND BE WELL-PAID IN A JOB. (Outskirts Press, Denver, CO.) if you are trying to seek a position within the lower ranks of the corporate heirarchy. The book is superb for workforce returnees, as well as beginners. In the economy to come, every one of us who is not blessed with an enormous trust fund will be a beginner.

THE "GREEN-COLLAR" INDUSTRIES REVOLUTION

Through my work with the CHILDREN'S INTERNATIONAL OBESITY FOUNDATION, I was fortunate enough to meet Executive Director Felix Urrutia at the NYC Police Athletic League (PAL). He is, in so many ways, a kindred spirit. While we met based upon PAL's increasing focus on overweight and obesity, especially amoung the urban ethnic population(who are hardest hit by any social or economic crisis), our conversations have taken us further into the realm of PAL's mission, a great part of which involves getting at-risk youth and youth exiting the prison system to learn skills and to become gainfully employed as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Mr. Urrutia introduced me to the growing world of "green-collar" jobs, careers involved in hydroponic gardening, ecology, environment, natural resource sustenance, recycling and numerous other ecologically-grounded pursuits. PAL actually trains these youth and puts them to work, giving them an opportunity to earn a decent, honest living, without being judged or stigmatized as "ghetto kids" or as "ex-convicts". PAL, in its steadfast dedication to its mission, is a visionary; a pioneer in a new job market which is open to everyone. with growing concerns over the environment and climatic change, watch for an increase in attention and opportunity in the 'green-collar" sector. I had, in my stereotying and snobbery, misjudged PAL.

My favorite foundation (CIOF) and PAL are involved in numerous ventures because of their (PAL's) surprisingly aggressive attitude toward stopping violence by increasing education, employment and self-worth among disadvantaged urban youth. Keep an eye on Felix Urrutia and Bobby Ferazi (who works with newly-released former offenders), both of PAL. They have not only found a wonderful niche, but they are opening it for others to enter. I believe it will be a growth industry through all urban cities in the US and worlwideWelcome to the Green-Collar Revolution, and a chance at reducing violence and despair. And to think that I had always thought PAL was just about boxing. I am proud to count these Pioneers for Humanity among my friends.

If I may wax poetic: I found some greens among the blues. I now sport a PAL golf shirt.

CAREERS INVOLVING WEATHER, CLIMATIC CHANGE and THE ENVIRONMENT

Just as the Green-Collar Revolution is taking off, expect an increasing number of careers in meteorology and environmentalism; the first, because climatic change is a "government-sanctioned" reality, and businesses are concerned about its effects; the second, because every G-8 government is regulating with increased ferocity against environmental abuses, and businesses need to be in full compliance with these tougher regulations. Further, and for the sake of the public's perception, each one of these major companies wants to buy penance by coming up with "save the environment" and environmental conservation programs. While this latter conduct may seem somewhat like a Mafia Don giving a tithe to the church, the ultimate result is that it is a stimulus to this vertical area of employment opportunity.

A quick synopsis of what has been said so far: While conventional careers are unraveling, opportunities in green-collar, weather-related and environmental areas are on the rise. If you do not choose to join one of these vertical sectors, you will have to be an entrepreneur.

CAREERS INVOLVING ALTERNATIVE FUELS and ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

Every G-8 member nation has become concerned with the need for sources of alternative energy. Technical careers in alternative energy research, development and implementation will be growing over these next few years. Ironically, many of these employment opportunities will be sponsored by the recently engorged petroleum companies. These petro-giants 1) have the money, 2) want to either control or squelch these alternative technologies, and 3) want to show the general public, comprised of victimized, wary consumers, that they are "doing something about the energy crisis." That phrase is becoming a pre-emptive defensive public relations mantra for the Sisters of the Oiligopoly.

Most of the dollars associated with these careers will be allocable to the atomic energy alternative, with an emphasis on thorium-fueled reactors. Most of the residual dollars will be allocable to the development of hybrid, solar and wind technologies. Very little of this allocation will go in the direction of "clean coal" (now there's a paradox) because of the impracticality of dealing with its inherent toxicity and pollution potential.

THE RE-EMPOWERMENT OF THE UNITED NATIONS

The United Nations, an institution whose merits and relevance are hotly debated in the United States and other G-8 member nations, will rise to increased prominence as the United States strives to recover credibility, cooperation and friendships lost or injured during the last six years. Many present-day detractors of the UN will find themselves knocking on its doors for assistance in building improved international trade relationships. I am hopeful that the UN can meet this need, and that it will act as an honest arbiter and broker.

THE FURTHER RISE OF NGOs and CAUSE-BASED ORGANIZATIONS

As discussed in numerous earlier posts, NGOs (Non-Government Observers, or Non-Government Organizations) and other cause-based organizations will continue to grow in size and influence. The traditional capitalistic model of the for-profit enterprise is under fire, and while profits may indeed fuel progress, the public has become increasingly disapproving of their social, environmental and ethical performance. Capitalism, as any other system, has its negatives and toxic byproducts. An increasingly traumatized public has become disenchanted with "big business". This perception comes and goes - it is part of a cycle roughly synchronized (albeit at a lag) with such variables as 1) stock market and capital market performance, 2) publicized prosecutions of corporate executives, and 3) rising unemployment and news of layoffs.

A TRADING EXCHANGE FOR NON-PRECIOUS METALS

It was inevitable. As the capital markets become perceived as riskier and less stable in general, the investing public (and the institutions which manage wealth) needs to find a new arena. Low interest rates, erratic stock market performance and a renewed interest in in-the-ground commodities have paved the way for trading exchanges in non-precious metals and minerals. Thorium and the Rare Earth Elements have been receiving a great deal of attention in these emerging micro-exchanges. The effect of this new "marketization," over time, will be an increase in the liquidity of these non-precious metals, and an increased opportunity for all investors to participate in these investments without their having to be owners and operators of mines. It will likely also result in price increases for every one of the traded commodities as trading activity and exchange formalization and acceptance grow.

On August 1st, the following article appeared in Section C-1 of the WALL STREET JOURNAL:

"The New Chemistry of Speculation
Contracts in Metals, Food Show Difficulty in Placing Shackles on Market Bets By IANTHE JEANNE DUGAN -August 1, 2008-

Even as Washington attempts to crack down on speculation in food, fuel and metals, Wall Street is rolling out new ways to bring in money.

In May, Credit Suisse Group and Deutsche Bank AG began offering investments in iron ore, a component of steel. About one billion tons of iron ore is mined a year but isn't traded on a futures exchange. So it has been virtually impossible for speculators to bet on price movements.

Carl Weine

The investment banks were inundated with interest in iron-ore deals, which function like futures contracts. In just two months, investors and hedgers took on more than $500 million of notional exposure -- about 2.7 million metric tons -- making this one of the biggest commodities markets to spring up almost overnight.

The new markets show how hard it will be for legislators to curb commodities speculation.Such trading is spreading to an array of other goods, from jet fuel to chicken, that have been off-limits to investors because they aren't traded on futures markets. They also are offered for commodities already bought and sold on global exchanges, including crude oil, corn and coffee. Through Goldman Sachs Group Inc., clients can invest in palm oil and other biofuel components. Deutsche Bank is trading ruthenium, an obscure metal used in fountain pens. Along with other firms, Deutsche is expanding into rhodium, used in catalytic converters. Deals are being teed up in lithium and "rare earth" metals..." [end of WSJ quote]

As always, thank you for taking time to look into the future with me.

Stay tuned for (cue drumroll...) :

*GROWTH IN THE SELF-IMPROVEMENT AND "INTROSPECTIVE" MARKETS

*CYBERSPACE and TECHNOLOGICAL CONFLUENCE WEAKENS THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

*PRIVATE LENDING and FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS DISPLACE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

*GREAT STRIDES TO BE MADE IN GENETIC TECHNOLOGIES (BIO-ENGINEERING), NANO-TECHNOLOGIES and AI (Artificial Intelligence)

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

EIGHT NOTEWORTHY TRENDS.

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Dear Friends:

There are at least eight trends which should be taken into consideration in all of your longer-range business and personal planning:

1. NOT-FOR-PROFITS, NGOs (Non-Government Organizations) AND OTHER TYPES OF "ALTERNATIVE FORM" GROUPS WILL RISE IN PROMINENCE AND INFLUENCE:

The profit motive, e.g., the drive for the acquisition and accumulation of wealth, has historically been the dominion of large corporations and powerful monarchs. Corporations have generally thrived as income- and wealth-creation vehicles because of various types of legislated insulation from directors' liability, favorable tax treatment and ready access to the capital markets to fuel expansion and increase value for stakeholders and certain insiders; monarchs, usually by a megalomaniacal claim of divine entitlement coupled with a promise of protection (most often from their own brutality), have simply collected tax or tribute from every person too slow to run and too powerless to protest.



With Sarbanes-Oxley, increasingly vituperative prosecutions of corporate officers and directors, increased regulatory reporting and accountability, and a growing public perception that corporations are faceless devils wholly bereft of sensitivity or morality, the for-profit corporation (especially whose shares are publicly-traded) is looking less and less appealing as a form of business entity.



Anticipate a significant increase in the number, wealth and power of such alternative not-for-profit organizational forms as public foundations, charitable trusts, cooperatives, informal clubs, religious groups, fraternal orders and membership societies during these next five years. These groups will dominate the political process (domestically and internationally), the legislative processes (domestically and via international treaty), consumerism, and ultimately, the re-allocation of wealth internationally. They are easily created, not tightly governed under a particular body of law (with the exception of public foundations, some charities, and a few others), free of the need for shareholders, able to maintain some level of privacy, and are unfettered by the outward semblance of a "for profit" motive.



We are already witnessing a tremendous increase in the activity levels of internet-based networking groups and online communities, which are become a social and business milieu unto themselves. They are relatively unregulated, inexpensive and simple to form and operate, and fabulously efficient int terms of accelerating the contact-formation process. You might want to contribute your Rolodex to the Smithsonian.

2. SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION WILL BECOME MUCH MORE CHALLENGING:

Mechanical and "organic" search engine optimization can be expected to become far more difficult as search enginesrobots, crawlers, and other sensory organs become more sensitive to recognizing meaningful words in relevance and context, and more discriminatory against contrived approaches to SEO, such as "invisible ink" programs, keyword stuffing, excessive word repetition, and other approaches. Ultimately, prominence in the search engine rankings will have to be obtained by increasing readership through compelling and high-utility website and blog content.

Increased readership (e.g., clicking activity) will be gleaned through recognition, recommendation referencing and old-fashioned campaigning. As search engines become "smarter", and develop greater discriminatory capabilities, expect an increase in the content quality of the top-ranked sites, and an increasing gap in terms of success between well-constructed sites and catchphrase-laden "exhibitionist" or "novelty" sites. Advancement in search engine rankings based upon merit might actually replace technological darwinism. (Note: Have you noticed that I have switched shades of blue in this text? I did it quite by accident, and I think that I will just leave it as it is, since this is my blog -- I only hope that I don't invite "blog text color consistency regulations" on the off-chance that some literate legislator sees this post.)

3. BE "GREEN" AND EARTH-FRIENDLY (LEST YOU AND YOUR ORGANIZATION BECOME COMPOST!):

Mother Earth is our friend (in between tsunamis, earthquakes, tornados and the occasional outbreak of an epidemic or the visitation by a plague). Some savvy folks, without mentioning Al Gore, by name, as well as an increasing number of environmental protectionist groups have made the public (and, by the power of polling) extraordinarily fearful of "environmentally unfriendly" activities. The environmental lobby is growing rapidly, and pervasively.



Both regular civilians and companies (as corporate citizens) are increasingly taking actions to be designated as "green" or "environmentally-friendly," through recycling, re-foresting, creating re-usable items, and a host of conspicuous public relations ploys. Whether or not you believe this is merely political hokum, you had best make efforts to become recognized (like Starbucks) as being environmentally conscious, and green.

Consumers will give you preference (especially younger consumers with a higher level of social consciousness and unjaded idealism), and regulators, protectionist groups and other well-intended (albeit meddlesome) parties will not be as readily inclined to do damage to you. On the bright side, some of these groups might even commend you. It is becoming socially fashionable to be environmentally conscious. Most of what you read today is post-consumer content... Oops...what I meant is that it is printed on post-consumer material.


4. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL MAKE QUANTUM STRIDES

Artificial Intelligence (which, ironically, has as its earliest descendant the human intelligence that initiated the first AI programming) will make tremendous advances during the course of these next 30 to 50 years, largely due to breakthroughs fueled by new insights into intelligence theory, complexity theory, nanotechnology and commercial and government applications and refinements of data mining and information analysis technology (a combination of pattern recognition, rule creation and generalization, outcome prediction and recursive system corrections and modifications based upon validity of results).



My guess is that at some time between 2050 and to 2070, AI, in all of its applications and guises, will replace the human intelligence that wished it into being and nurtured it. It will be perceived as more reliable in every aspect than its fallible and emotionally-driven flesh and blood counterpart and grandparent, as it will be shown to be a powerful tool with limitless energy and no need for cigarette or coffee breaks. Without referencing any work of science fiction in particular, the issue will eventually become that of who is the servant and who is the master? I will not share with you how I would bet, if I were a gambling type of fellow.

Bruce Klein writes a wonderful blog which can be accessed at www.novamente.net/bruce_blog, which addresses many interesting issues and developments in the field of AI. He is conducting a poll about when (in terms of decades) AI will achieve parity with the basic functionality of the human mind. Read his blog, track his poll results, and draw your own conclusions from his collected data. I enjoyed participating in the survey, and was honored to be asked for my opinion. View his blog and let me know what you think. He has a very intelligent and articulate readership. As do I .


5. MARKET AND IDEA TESTING AND POLLING WILL BECOME MORE SOPHISTICATED, MORE INTERACTIVE, MORE EFFECTIVE, AND FAR MORE COMMONPLACE:



Test marketing and trial runs based upon free samples, giveaways, intuition, conventional marketing wisdom, "breakthrough ideas" and individual innovation will be supplanted by a very different fundamental approach to testing and pre-marketing: interactive polling and surveying through the e-media. In this way, the targeted consumer market (e.g., the prospective cusomers) will actually have a say in the development of the product, and will actually have an emotional investment and a feeling of proprietorship in the finished product. This psychology is exemplified by the "wiki" phenomenon. For an eloquent example, just put WIKIPEDIA into any search engine.

It is delightful and ironic to think that the consumers will ultimately be the designers and suppliers of the product which they themselves will pay for. (I apologize for ending the preceding sentence with a preposition).



6. EXECUTIVE (PRIVATE LUXURY) AIR TRAVEL WILL BECOME FAR MORE COMMONPLACE:

Due to the increasingly time-consuming and humiliating experience of going through airport security prior to boarding any commercial airlines flight, executive air travel by privately-owned and operated executive transport companies is already on the rise. You can expect this trend to continue as world markets become more competitive, and airport anti-terrorist security protocols become increasingly stringent and unpleasant.

7. THE FOCUS ON THE TREATMENT OF OVERWEIGHT AND OBESITY WILL CHANGE:

At present, the treatment of overweight and obesity is focused on diet (nutrition), exercise (fitness), medication (diet pills and nutritional supplementation) and bariatric surgery (gastric or duodenal bypass surgery), for both adults and children. These are "generic" means of addressing the symptoms after considerable suffering has already occurred. Within the next three to five years, the focus will shift to:

• earlier-stage testing (genetics and endocrinology);
• metabolic typing and testing (look at www.sotmary.com and www.manhattanmetabolic.com);
• non-invasive and endoscopic approaches to digestive tract reconfiguration (a company called Obesity Technologies, Inc. is developing one of these technologies);
• finely-targeted electrical stimulation or suppression of various parts of the brain which are involved in appetite (i.e., the hippocampus), and parts of the stomach and digestive tract (i.e., various nerves controlling endocrine and other functions);
• hypnotherapy and NLP (Neurolinguistic Programming).

From a humanitarian perspective, I think that it is a wonderful idea to 1) predict and determine causality and apprehend the problem through early intervention, and to 2) stop shaming and blaming the victims or sufferers for certain aspects of their overweight and obesity which might truly be beyond their ability to control.

8. ASTROLOGY AND ASTROLOGICAL PLANNING WILL RISE TO PROMINENCE AND BECOME AN ACCEPTED MEANS OF PERSONAL AND BUSINESS PLANNING:

Famous former first lady Nancy Reagan would not let former president Ronald Reagan attend meetings, schedule appointments, make policy decisions or use the executive washroom (perhaps a slight exaggeration) without first consulting her astrologer as to the optimality of the timing. Today, a number of major fund managers and advisors make buy and sell decisions for their portfolios valued at (in the aggregate) hundreds of billions of dollars based upon the alignment of the heavenly bodies. Some of these managers have actually become quite open about it. Expect more utilization and open recognition of astrology as a decisionmaking tool in business. "Astrology -- it's not just for matchmakers anymore."

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

TRENDS TO WATCH...

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Dear Friends:





During the coming weeks and months, there are a number of areas that I will be watching and reporting about in detailed postings on this blog. This is merely a preliminary listing of subjects to be covered and trends to be tracked, and I welcome other culturists, economists, political pundits, social researchers, scientists, bloggers and thinkers of all types to suggest topics which you would like to see covered and trends that you would like to see monitored and reported about. Your input is critical, and will be given due consideration. You may comment directly on any post (e.g., right on this site), or send your information to me directly at FreeDECastle001@yahoo.com. Expect a prompt response. Please do not burden me with apocalytic speculation and other suppositions and whinings about the end of the world -- when the end of the world does indeed arrive, I will simply stop posting...and you will probably have to stop complaining as well. It's only fair.


On a serious note though, for the time being, and for the foreseeable future, I will post as if the world were a going concern, and that my readers are reasonably intelligent, inquisitive and proactive persons who want to prepare for the future and to benefit by applying new information to their decisionmaking rather than stand idly by and watch the future turn into the past.

Some of the selected chart targets are categorized below, in no particular order of priority or importance:


*Privacy, piracy, identity theft, data mining, intrusive technologies, database accumulation, movement tracking, coding, profiling, recordkeeping and reporting, smartcarding, RFID, scanning;

*Advancement of women, minorities, ethnic groups, economic classes in business, consumerism and politics;

*Outsourcing and offshoring trends;

*Internationalism and treaty-formation;

*Technological advances;

*Changes in the regulatory environment and compliance requirements;

*Emerging and declining economies and countries;

*Shifting world demographics;

*Changing belief systems and "conventional wisdom";

*Education and employment trends;

*Culture and consumerism;

*Economic, trade, commodities FOREX, interest and monetary trends and implications;

*Changes in qualification, behavioral and other social standards;

*Movement tracking -- Environmentalism, Religious Fundamentalism, Political Action Groups, NGOs and other groups, clubs and fraternal orders;

*International and intranational alliances in formation, as well as wars and animosities fomenting;

*Industry domination, multinational collusion;

*Individuals and companies on the rise or decline;

*Developments in healthcare, medical treatment, wellness, longevity, the quality of life and the Human condition;

*Longer-term investment trends.

I am optimistic that these posts will be information-intensive and highly useful. Where appropriate, I will hyperlink to other blogs and websites of interest which provide meaningful and credible detail about any of the subjects covered. And I will not waste your time...as we never truly know just how much we have of it.

In a departure from my characteristically antisocial solo style, I will absolutely invite and encourage guest bloggers and interviewees to contribute to postings, and will give full attribution to every contributor. I am anticipating acting as the de facto coordinator and moderator of a massive group effort. It is also wise to bear in mind that trends, when disclosed early-on in the appropriate media by credible sources, often turn into self-fulfilling prophesies. In aggressively promulgating a prediction of the future, we may, in fact, be creating it!

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. The character depicted in the upper left-hand corner of this post translates (loosely) to "book". There is great significance and relevance to the use of this particular character in this post -- I leave it to my insightful and intelligent readers to determine what it is. ~~~