Global Futurist Update - 2013 And Beyond

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The Global Futurist Blog has a great deal of territory to cover regarding what to anticipate in the coming year, the coming 5 years and the coming 25 years (futurescaping). Before I start citing trends, confluences of events, predictions and preparations, please take a moment and read through The Global Economy: Reasons And Remedies and bear in mind the notion of what happens to a society that is changed by technology, power shifts, concentrations of influence, archaic institutions and expectations and fails to adapt to the massive series of disruptive waves. Then, please come back.

Of course, this report would not be fully complete without my fellow Futurist Thomas Frey's insights into where we are and where we are going:

Coding is the new literacy of the 21st century
Could you be sitting on the app concept of the century, but you don’t know the programming basics to create it. Now, thanks to coding courses offered by companies such as DaVinci Coders and Codecademy, people are launching new businesses by taking coding matters into their own hands.
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Denser cities are smarter and more productive

One of the most important, and at times contentious topics in urban development is density.  Density plays an important role in economic growth. Density brings people and firms closer together which makes it easier to share and exchange information, invent new technologies, and launch new firms.
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Baby boomers are the driving force behind 'big data' demand
No matter what generation we are we usually see young adults, who are tethered to their mobile device for texting, gaming and surfing the web, as the drivers of our new data-driven world. But surprisingly, baby boomers aged 46 to 64 represent possibly the largest generation driving rapid growth in data demand.
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U.S. Senator presses FAA to allow use of electronic devices during takeoff and landing

Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) wants the Federal Aviation Administration to relax its long-standing rule against the use of portable electronic devices on airplanes during takeoff and landing. The agency has traditionally claimed the rule is necessary to avoid interference with an airplane’s instruments, but it is currently reconsidering the policy.
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Top 6 social-digital trends of 2013
It’s that time of year where we predict how in the year ahead technology continues to influence how we work and live.  Previously the trends have been under the “social media” lens because that has been the major disruptive force, creating both opportunities and threats. This year, the trends will be under term “social-digital” to broaden the focus.
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The 'flipped academic' in higher education - inform first and publish later

The concept of the ‘flipped classroom’ in schools is when pupils complete course material ahead of lessons to free up time with their teachers and apply the knowledge they have just learned. Now a related philosophy is developing in higher education. Can we also flip academics  or even academia itself?
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Google gives $5 million for drones to hunt African rhino poachers
There are horrific photos of subdued rhinos with their horns amputated by poachers that have become a viral phenomenon. Google is now giving $5 million to a conservation group for lightweight drones that will patrol the African bush, exposing ivory hunters along the way.
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Harvard's top endowment managers make 20 times as much as a professor
Ron Unz of the American Conservative posits that 375-year old Harvard University has grown so rich that it is now essentially a giant hedge fund with a little school attached.
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Are you ready to fly anywhere in the world in under 4 hours?
Are you ready for hypersonic travel?  The British company, Reaction Engines, have passed the European Space Agency’s initial safety tests for their air-breathing rocket engines.
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Are billionaires, Amish, the homeless, slum-dwellers, or Masai the happiest?
These are responses to: “You are satisfied with your life,” ranging from complete agreement (7) to complete disagreement (1), where 4 is neutral..
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And now some practical predictions of my own for the coming year, and the 4 years to follow:

1) CrowdFunding will become the newest and largest of the capital markets, but within  one to two years, look for regulators to step in and try to spoil the party. Right now, some pundits estimate that the demand for crowdfunding, inclusive of start ups, early-stage entrepreneurial enterprises, SMEs and cause-based organizations (including, humanitarian, charitable, PACs, member-based groups and NGOs) will exceed $1.0 billion in 2013 alone -- to avoid a conflict of interest, I must disclose that I recently became the CEO of CrowdFunding Incubator LLC;

2) Real unemployment and underemployment within the industrialized western nations will continue to rise, as real compensation (inclusive of the value of the customary benefits of the past) will plummet;

3) The price of food and other family staples will rise in all of the English-speaking nations;

4) Brazil and other portions of Latin America will thrive, while China, Thailand and Southeast Asia will experience sufficient internal problems as to offset their anticipated denomination of world wealth and commerce;

5) India will continue to make great economic strides and become an increasingly active world trading power, and not just an outsource resource;

6) Most of the Middle East and parts of Africa will be in a state of war - from Shiites versus Sunnis to Islam versus the West to civil wars and uprisings against the leadership in most of these monarchies - and the US will continue to be involved because the weapons and rebuilding businesses are far to profitable to permit strategic withdrawals, no matter the amount of casualties;

7) Hybrid cars will become increasingly popular as oil and gasoline prices continue in their instability;

8) The idea of Global Warming will win much more acknowledgement and acceptance in the scientific community;

9) Nanotechnology will not be as fruitful or as powerful as many of us thought it might be even a year ago, but genetic engineering, stem cell regrowth potentialities, and a better understanding of the electrodynamics of the Human mind and its diseases will attract a great deal of attention, progress, adoption and capital;

10) The Euro will be a secondary currency as the wealthier countries in the European Union become more and more wary of their weaker partners;

11) An amended version of something like the Glass-Steagall Act (which separated banks from investment houses and brokerage firms in terms of their permitted activities, investments and reserve requirements) will resurface in the US and other western countries;

12) While longevity will experience (over these next five years) will increase up to as much as five years, this number will be based upon the median average and not the mean, as obesity, drug-resistant microbes and poorer medical care for the middle class and the working poor will decline precipitously. We will witness a resurgence in the Caribbean and Africa a resurgence of such diseases as cholera, diphtheria, and new strains of super viruses make their appearance;

13) A knowledge of brain chemistry will grow enormously, while AI (artificial intelligence) development will actually slow down as we continue to redefine the very essence and nature of intelligence;

14) Most communications and commerce will be conducted by mobile devices, and most software and data storage operations will be subsumed under the cloud;

15) Cable television will yield (though not without a fight) to satellite television, and streaming mobile-accessible media. Satellite telephones will become increasingly popular as an alternative to tower-to-tower digitized mobile communications;

16) Civilians will be protesting the availability of weapons to the general public, while arms of every caliber and type will be snapped up by an increasingly armed, albeit hypocritical citizenry;

17) Corporate armies and strategic defense departments will become more and more prevalent. Privatized armies will be loyal to their highest bidders, and nationality and patriotism will take more and more of a backseat to mercenary profits. High-net worth individuals and corporate executives will be guarded by private security firms;

18) Divisions between national governments and the governed will increase and become increasingly violent as citizens try to reclaim their power (#occupy), and governments cling tenaciously to the source of their funds through the ability to tax and confiscate. Militia activity in the United States will see a significant increase. The Taxpayer Revolt Movement will experience a resurgence and governments will strive to eliminate paper currency and supplant it with electronic funds transfers in order to more able to a) monitor the money supply, and to b) directly deduct tax liability assessments from the accounts (bank and brokerage) of citizens. This will favorably impact the prices of precious metals, physical commodities and a re-visitation of barter;

19) Mobile device applications will continue to soar in popularity and utilization;

20) As cyber-dependency invites increasingly audacious cyber attacks, companies and government entities will begin recruiting more and more computer security professionals - of course, cyber-espionage will also be on the rise, and many companies will attempt to recruit otherwise unaffiliated hackers into their ranks. Privacy through electronic communications will have become a complete impossibility, again reaffirming the viability of satellite communications and other, older methods of keeping communications secret.

21) There will be tremendous and exciting discoveries during the course of these next one to three years in the fields of disruption theory, plasma and stealth weaponry, and these will raise many ethical and basic Humanitarian questions and concerns.

Thank you as always for reading me, re-tweeting me and to letting me share my visions of the future with you.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist Blog, The Business And Project Planning And Management Blog and the CrowdFunding Incubator LLC Group Of Blogs

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TRUSTING YOUR LIFE TO A STRANGER (OR TWO)

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TRUSTING YOUR LIFE TO A STRANGER
Re-posted 10 July 2009

Dear Friends and Futurists:


A headline from the NEW YORK TIMES:
Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Wednesday, July 8, 2009 -- 12:39 AM ET-----
Google Plans to Introduce a PC Operating System

"In a direct challenge to Microsoft, Google is expected to announce on Wednesday that it is developing an operating system for a personal computer based on its Chrome browser, according to two people briefed on Google's plans. The move would sharpen the already intense competition between Google and Microsoft, whose Windows operating system controls the basic functions of the vast majority of personal computers."
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COMMENTARY - PART 1: The Extremely Frightening Scenario

Microsoft's operating system has made Bill Gate's one of the world's wealthiest monopolists, and has given Microsoft access to incredible amounts of data (public, private and highly classified), as well as control of the functioning of the majority of the world's communications, analytic and automated systems and facilities. Think of some of the potential abuses of this vast power:

1. Access to all of your banked money and securities, and everyone else's.

2. Access to all of your secured facilities (door locks, bank vaults, power plants, government military installations and nuclear facilities).

3. Access to anything (all information) put into any email, computer file, or scanned file.

Google has a similar power over our lives.

Either of these two goliaths could have most of the world at its mercy. And now, they are openly at war. When you think about the implications of this, do you ever imagine yourself as a skinny, loincloth-clad dolt with his legs chained together cuaght in the middle of a tusk battle between two wooly mammoths? I do. I even become claustrophobic.

Either one of these companies has the ability to collapse an economy, trigger a war, and much, much worse. This goes well beyond the Forbin Project. This goes well beyond Absolute Power. As a matter of fact, either of these companies has the ability to terminate Human existence as we have come to know it -- they are bigger than any governments -- they are wired right into governments. We, as Human Beings, are fully at their mercy. We cannot police or regulate entities which are so much more powerful than ourselves and our greatest institutions. We can either trust their organizational morality, or we can distrust and fear them...waiting for the day when they choose to openly declare their reign over our species.

Each of these two juggernauts would like to engulf and devour (or obliterate) the other. As engaged adversaries, they are already formidable to the civilian population...as a combined entity produced by a politically-expedient marriage of oligarchs, they may well be more so. Either company has, at present, sufficient available cash to purchase virtually every small or large (but unprofitable) communications innovator (i.e., Twitter, YouTube, etc.) which has an important position of utility in the marketplace. Feedburner, the largest and best-known RSS feedcaster in the growing blogosphere is now owned by Blogger -- which, in turn, is owned by Google. These types of transactions are textbook cases in vertical integration.

The potential conflicts of interest in this domination are also very frightening. Microsoft's operating system has all but squeezed out all other prospective players in the PC marketplace by coercing companies to use its operating system or suffer the "consequences" of not being able to offer other vital capabilities and programs; Google is the world's best-known search engine, but markets its own products...you can speak about search engine ranking algorithms until your fuses blow out, but pedestrian common sense would lead a rational person (or even some of my closest friends) to the conclusion that Google might give its own profit-makers higher rankings. For all I know, having Google rank or rate sites might be every bit as sensible as having a sixth-grader mark his own test paper, or having an active alcoholic in charge of tending bar or maintaining the accounting records relating to the wine and liquor inventory.

Plainly speaking, we are entrusting our lives to a very small number of organizations that might put their own profitability and power ahead of our consumer satisfaction experience. Power does have the proven potential to corrupt, or at very least, to tempt even the righteous.

What can any person or organization do to stop this domination and its potential abuses? Absolutely nothing. Anti-trust lawsuits and other prosecution or regulation tactics and strategies are about as effective as trying to make an unarmed citizen's arrest of a machine gun-toting terrorist on methamphetamine. [Yes, yes...I know...the metaphors are abominable but I am getting my meaning across]. A prudent Futurist would do well to accept their domination as reality and predict and prepare for their actions. Expecting a moral prerogative or a government agency to come to the rescue is (oh, no -- not another metaphor....or is this one more of an allusion?) is tilting at windmills.

The most frightening components of this nightmare scenario are if:

• One or both of the companies decide to get more aggressively involved in lobbying and kingmaking in government;

• One or both of the companies experiences a significant "glitch," and the systems that our tenuous civilization and infrastructure cease to operate properly - the results would be immediate and calamitous;

• Any one of a number of rogue or disgruntled programmers at either of the companies decides to inflict damage upon the masses by creating or launching a formidable computer virus or worm. These bright young minds have the demonstrated ability to destroy as well as create. There are some of their number who might enjoy the rush of adrenalin associated with hacking into or otherwise corrupting some major programs which operate almost every aspect of our lives...from traffic lights and commerce, to nuclear power plants and the entire national defense system. It is amazing to think that so many young, brilliant and virtually unsupervised staffers have immediate, unimpeded and unquestioned access to potential weapons of mass destruction. The push of the right button at the right moment can turn the lights out all over the grid. On that note, here is just a small sample of this incalculably damaging potential at play:

Click on: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090708/ap_on_go_ot/us_cyber_attack . This article appears courtesy of Associated Press (AP), and is titled, "Federal Web sites knocked out by cyber attack." The incident was reported on July 8th. As noted earlier, this is just one small sample.

I personally think that the realistic threat of a devastating cyber-attack poses a far more clear and present danger than that of: nuclear war caused by either sovereign nations or fanatical fringe groups; major civil unrest (an oxymoron, there), Global Warming, Massive Climatic Change, or poisoning of food or water supplies. Stringent emissions standards, better banking oversight and gun control legislation won't make an iota of difference. If you'd like to start an interesting discussion at a party attended by heads of state and senior military officials, just innocently ask them something along the lines of, "Hey guys! I'm curious. Do you folks have redundant computer systems hosted and managed by several unrelated vendors...I mean, like, a 'backup system'?" The things that we count upon, the things which we depend upon...these are our greatest areas of vulnerability.

COMMENTARY - PART 2: What We Might Expect

There is wisdom in being prepared to address those things which we cannot change. Hence this whole business of trend-spotting and extrapolating, and its natural application to the these goliaths with virtually limitless power. Let's anticipate what they might be likely to do, and what me might be able to do, either in preparation or in response, to use this knowledge to our advantage.

1. THE SOLO INTEGRATION PLAY. In 2002, eBay bought PayPal (a merchant payment processing system, ideal for ecommerce) for the sum of $1.5 Billion. It is indeed a meaningful marriage, giving eBay customers an immediate means of being able to settle their sales and purchases. Since eBay is a publicly-traded entity, with its stock held by a large number of individual shareholders, eBay's gain is its shareholders' gain -- many shareholders use eBay's services, as well. The whole scenario looks rather like a cooperative or a credit union, but without any real banking being involved.

With so many financial institutions in tenuous financial straits, there may well be an opportunity for Google and Microsoft to get into a) more of the merchant payment processing business, and b) some serious aspects of the retail banking business. As an increasing volume of all business is transacted via internet, it makes a good deal of sense for this market to be further harvested for financing. This could most efficiently be accomplished from the standpoints of both regulatory compliance and logistics by having some of the existing financial institutions provide the "backoffice" functions for these giants. Ironically, these backoffice functions are all computerized and invariably involve, well...Microsoft! A silly analogy: Computers and banking are like chicldren and loaded guns.

2. THE CLASH OF THE TITANS PLAY. In this scenario, Google unsettles Microsoft by hitting it where it hurts most...in its operating system. Google provides a great deal of consumer communications services, a great deal of value-added innovation, and has a greater cross-section of the consumer marketplace (because of the dependence upon its many services) than does Microsoft. Google is perceived as more innovative, more consumer-friendly, and more customer interactive than Microsoft, which is dominated by the personal presence of Bill Gates and a seemingly endless string of bad "upgrades" -- can you smell them? Vista, Internet Explorer 8...all of which are beta-tested on the public. Google appears to be more receptive to feedback from the marketplace - from its core consumers. In a battle to the death, and barring a business combination of the two companies, Google will outmaneuver Microsoft, to the cheers of the public (and of Steve Jobs, jumping about gleefullyover at Apple).

3. THE TO EACH ITS OWN PLAY. It is possible that Google will simply become more of a social media services provider, and Microsoft will become an increasingly operations-oriented company (like the IBM of old, but more progressive). It is possible that Microsoft will creep into the financial services industry, while Google keeps polishing its Chrome. Let's not forget that Microsoft's operating system is very deeply embedded into the marketplace -- like a heartworm in your favorite pooch. In this, the most optimistic scenario, we will still be ruled by two giants. And there are numerous individuals within each of these monoliths who have the capability of doing incredible damage on a whim -- simply and quickly. No guns, plutonium, carbon monoxide, melamine, or vial of Andromeda Strain required.

I have taken the step of backing up this article after writing each paragraph. I feel vulnerable to a loss of hours upon hours of hard work due to an unexpected computer glitch. It has happened to me before. At least when the lights go out in a storm, we have an emergency generator.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AFTER THE ORIGINAL RELEASE OF THIS POST (Added 7/11/09):

ALTERNATIVE TITLE: DEPENDENCIES, TRUST and VULNERABILITY

Futurists: What is the greatest actual threat to civilization? Are we taking too much for granted?http://twitlik.com/GOOGLESOFT #TNNW -DC

Reference terms: google, microsoft, dependencies, trust, vulnerability, monopoly, power, Blogs by Douglas Castle, merchant payment processing services, finance and banking, vertical integration, The National Networker, SrMeetUp, Internal Energy Plus, clear and present danger, destruction potential, command, regulation, domination, #TNNW, #TNNW_BUZZWORKS, #SrMeetUp, #Braintenance, indolence, inertia, behavioral psychology, search engines, data mining, redundant systems, antitrust regulations, media controls, operating systems...abuses of power, acquisitions, Douglas Castle blogs, Feedburner, google, industry domination, mergers, microsoft, monopolies, search engines, YouTube

FIVE TO PONDER.

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Dear Friends:

The post is titled "Five To Ponder". Admittedly, it sounds like the title of a cheap thriller --not unlike those books we see 'everyone else' reading on the train. The fact, which you may consider physical law, is that the future will indeed come...whether we fastidiously prepare for it, or proactively shape it, or become fossilized under its unstoppable, marching feet. These five items are worth thinking about. And, sooner or later, you will choose to act upon them, or they will act upon you, your business, and your life.

1. OUTSOURCING AND TELECOMMUTING

The G-8 nations in general, and, in particular, the United States, are outsourcing an increasing percentage of their operations to foreign countries, taking advantage of the favorable arbitrage in labor costs. While the nations receiving the bulk of this contracting largess will be changing as their labor pricing structures adjust to meet demand, the tendency to outsource will be here for a long time to come. Telecommuting through the limitless realm of cyberspace is making this prospect increasingly viable to the point of being irresistible. In five to ten years, what will the term "corporate headquarters" mean? In ten to fifteen years, what will the term "geography" mean? The current construct of "country of origin" is already a vestigial anachronism.

2. DE-NATIONALIZATION FROM THE G-8

The increasing regulatory complexity of conducting business in the G-8 nations, particularly the English-speaking ones, combined with the voracious propensity in these civilized lands to prosecute "corporate" criminals (where then pen is perceived as lethal a weapon as is the sword) for an ever-increasing compendium of nebulously-defined crimes will lead to a massive exodus of corporate charters and head offices to less-sophisticated (e.g., more "commerce-friendly"), hungrier jurisdictions. Just speculating...this could also fuel the increasingly evident flight of capital and employment opportunities from the venerable G-8. The notion of "Free Enterprise" is becoming increasingly hazy. In certain circles, the phrase is deemed politically incorrect.

3. CO-OPETITION NETWORKING

With the increasing prevalence, power and sophistication of the Internet, very little remains secret or inaccessible. Consumers are dictating to an increasing field of emerging vendors precisely what products and services they want, and just what they are willing to pay. The most successfully suppliers will be those who are able to refer customers and co-opt assignments. The best networkers will be the newest addition to the pantheon of the world's richest. Landowners, rights-holders, and traders of all stripes will have to make way for a new generation of shamelessly aggressive networkers. Leveraging of knowledge and contacts, and alliances of former adversaries will replace the hide-and-seek, divide-and-conquer ethic of traditional-style competition. Malcolm Gladwell, an inspired visionary, may have to provide additional place settings at the table for Adam Kovitz, Thomas Power, Jay Deragon and others. Depending upon the menu, Douglas Castle may even join them at the feast. As a businessperson, which end of the fork will you be on? Co-opetition.

4. DATA-DEPENDENCY DOMINATION PARANOIA

I am delighted to report that I have an incredible amount of data storage space in my gmail account. If I wanted to, I could store all of my documents, data, photographs, graphics and other information off-site (e.g., not on my hard drive) thanks to the lads at Google. That's precisely why I opened the account in the first place. And now, Yahoo! is offering me virtually unlimited storage capacity, too! All of this -- for free. Websites, blogs, calendars, financial records, personal information...we sure are trusting these colossal companies with quite a bit of valuable stuff. Hmmmm....

5. THE INWARD EXPLORATION

The human mind is an amazing thing. Its abilities, its capacities its processes are vastly unexplored terrain. Ironically, the increased development of information technologies and intelligence theories will lead us back to the ghost in the machine -- the Human Mind. How we learn, and increasing our ability to learn, and to think will become increasingly objects of exploration and fascination. The mind is an amazing playing field; more than in the physical realm, it is where we live. The study of learning and the study of thought will be tremendous areas of pioneering as a resurgence in curiousity about natural, or "organic" intelligence and the human potential movement seizes the imaginations of our species. Just take a look at the increasing proportion of bookstore and catalogue space being allocated to "self-improvement" and related subjects. After being out of our minds for so long, it raises a smile to think that we may be getting back into them. Intelligent people enjoy irony. Do you?

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. Click on this link (from a very unlikely source) for some fascinating and insightful comments about the future: www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc-futr.htm#quotes