A Major Disruption In Your Living Room

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A MAJOR DISRUPTION IN YOUR LIVING ROOM

I just read a newsletter which I received from The Motley Fool. I believe that what it speaks about is absolute near-term Global Futurist gospel. The is about to be a major disruption right in your living room. Please forgive the spacing and idiosyncratic fonts in this post -- I was so excited and so eager to get it out on a timely basis, that I didn't get a chance to edit it properly.

I have excerpted the following information from that newsletter [this excerpt does not contain the full content of the newsletter itself]:

December 20, 2015

Hi Fellow Fools:

It shouldn't shock you to hear that I'm known as "tech-guy" in my extended family ... always rambling about new gadgets and predictions for the future.

So when scheduling conflicts forced us to open Christmas presents early and my wife unwrapped the newest version of Apple TV, I was more than happy to oblige my family's request to immediately set it up. After setup was complete, their next request shouldn't surprise you either: they wanted to watch a Christmas movie.

So, I handed my wife the remote and told her to simply ask for what she wanted.

Pressing down a button to activate Siri, she said, "Let's watch a Christmas movie on Netflix" ... and was immediately provided a listing of holiday films matching her search. One click later, the movie popped up in Netflix, and we were enjoying a family Christmas flick together. It took all of 10 seconds. Everyone thought the new device was pretty magical. I could tell because they actually applauded when we found a movie so effortlessly.

The future of TV is here ... and there may still be time for you to profit from it.

The future is now

Long-time readers of this column will recall that I've discussed the huge profits up for grabs as consumers shift their spending dollars from expensive cable bills to new forms of entertainment.

An email I sent on July 19 titled, "How you could profit from millions canceling cable" predicted the following:

"My research ... [from February 2014]... showed that we were nearing a tipping point where consumers would begin calling it quits [with their cable bill]. I anticipated that these cancelations would be relatively light to start, but would gain traction and eventually destabilize the entire industry."

At the time, that opinion was very controversial. Up to 2013, the number of people subscribing to paid television options like cable TV had never declined in a single year!

But just last week, we saw the clearest indication yet that my prediction will be right on the money. New findings from researcher eMarketer now predict that before the end of the decade, 23% of households won't pay for the traditional TV we're used to.

Think about that for a moment. We've gone from cable growing every single year to years of accelerating losses so great that nearly a quarter of American homes will have "cut the cord!"

From this new research to my family's reaction to the Apple TV (a device built to appeal to cord cutters), all evidence points toward Americans shifting away from the "old TV" that's been dominant for decades at a stunning pace.

A bet you can make that's worked for centuries

While this trend is unwelcome news to TV incumbents like Comcast (not that you'll be shedding a tear for them!), there's a larger shift that creates huge opportunity for investors like you.

TV is at the center of an entertainment industry that PwC estimates will hit $2.2 trillion by 2017. The industry's continuing growth is a pretty safe bet. Namely because entertainment's growth is fueled by people being more productive at work and having more free time, and also having more discretionary wealth to spend on being entertained. With the world's wealth and productivity having risen for centuries, that's the kind of investing bet I like to make.

Netflix (NFLX) has been the poster child of how ahead-of-the-curve investors can benefit from this trend so far. Fool co-founder David Gardner recommended Netflix six different times to Stock Advisor members through the years. As I'm writing this, the best of those recommendations (from December 2004) is up a stunning 6,393%!

But, there's more opportunity ahead

However, while Netflix is the clearest beneficiary of the evolution sweeping the television industry, there are plenty of other areas of opportunity spread across the trillions of entertainment dollars spent each year.

Here's one example of a booming area of entertainment that's set for huge growth: virtual reality. Yes, it's been an absolute joke for decades, but don't be surprised to see it finally begin invading homes next year.

The promise of virtual reality - taking tours of the world's greatest wonders, stepping inside the scenes of movies - has always been a no-brainer experience consumers would love. The missing ingredient was technology good enough (and cheap enough!) to deliver compelling experiences.

That's about to change in 2016. A series of VR headsets are coming out from companies like Facebook (FB), Samsung, HTC, and many others. I'm going to the world's largest technology show in two weeks, and the number of emails flooding my inbox from virtual reality companies wanting to show me new, amazing technologies is simply overwhelming.

Best of all if you're an investor, this progress has turned into results. The company that makes the processors that many of these VR sets rely on to power their visuals has seen its share price explode in the second half of 2015 as tech insiders saw the advances in VR technology.

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Yes, I believe that it is inevitable. Expect a major disruption right in your living room. Also, please be mindful of the fact that neither this blog nor the author ever provide investment advice. There will be some kinks to be worked out (aren't there always some bugs and bug fixes with every major consumer technology app release?), some privacy or other concerns, some die-hard traditionalists and the usual background noise of the naysayers, but this is an innovation and an application which simply should not and cannot be ignored by anyone.

Happy holidays, and my very best wishes to each and all for a happy, healthy, safe and prosperous New Year.

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- Douglas E. Castle



THE GLOBAL FUTURIST – Douglas E Castle

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com

Discovering and following significant trends across an extensive range of domestic and international consumer, business, demographic, cultural, economic, political, technological and other key areas of influence and impact on life and business; predicting future change, preparing for it and profiting from it.

Key Terms: business, forecasting, trends, future, prediction, disruption, displacement, innovation, complexity theory, economic waves and cycles, projections, planning



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The Disruption Of Our Future -- 4 Predictions -- Douglas E. Castle

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In a future warped around an increasing frequency of disruptive innovations, there will be great displacement, confusion, and much social, financial and emotional tribulation. Innovation may well a positive thing (per se), but the accelerating pace of the occurrence of innovations can (and will) leave many struggling to survive in the inevitable trauma of its deepening wake. This wave of disruptions, like a hailstorm, has already begun raining down upon us.

For the uninitiated, disruption is defined by Dictionary.Com as "... a radical change in an industry, business strategy, etc., especially involving the introduction of a new product or service that creates a new market..." By definition, disruption certainly sounds, in this context, like a positive thing, and it may well be, once it has reached its point of stabilization.

While the end of a disruptive event may produce a favorable outcome, there is apt to be a great deal of mayhem while things, i.e., changes, are "settling in". But in a futurescape scenario where disruption is layered upon disruption, that state of mayhem will be protracted and increased significantly in severity.

On our planet, we are entering an era, or perhaps an epoch, of accelerating disruptions. These may well be as traumatic to our species as a catastrophic meteor shower or a steepening climatic change. Human beings are generally resistant to change in general, whether it be advantageous or disadvantageous.

Change upsets our equilibrium and violates our 'default setting' of constancy and complacency. Going further, it could be said that a fair amount of predictability in our lives serves to keep us sane... walking upright in a straight line instead of falling all over ourselves in a situation of randomly changing gravity.

Amid this wave of accelerating disruptions, The Global Futurist anticipates the following trends [although we are not in the business of offering any type of investment, tax, financial, legal or other advice] during the next several years' time:

1) Transitional unemployment will increase dramatically. Individuals will not only be between jobs, but between careers. At present, the United States government (through the Bureau Of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve) reports a total unemployment rate of only 5.3%, the actual rate of people out of work but in need of employment (as reported by some very influential Wall Street advisers as of the date of this writing) may be in excess of 25%. As accelerating technological change eliminates many middle-management and other types of jobs across multiple industry sectors, The Global Futurist anticipates an increase in the 25% statistic to in excess of 33% by 2018, although the official pronouncements of the government and mainstream news media will not report this. Expect a higher crime rate and a burgeoning underground economy;

2) Smaller, more entrepreneurial enterprises will rise up in innovation, productivity, visibility and stakeholder value over short time frames, while they will be overtaken by technologically superior successors rapidly, giving them a reduced business lifespan of perhaps a mere 3 to 5 years;

3) A greatly increasing percentage of consumer income will be expended (despite the decreasing prices of various technologies and technology-based items) on purchasing updated, and upgrading items to replace the increasing amounts of techno items. At present, consumers are spending between 17% and 19% of the amount of their annual rent or mortgage payments on technological upgrades and updates. With accelerating obsolescence, the implicit consumer mandate will drive this percentage higher -- perhaps to as much as 25% by as early as 2018. This translates to reduced consumer income for survival expenditures and investment;

4) Due to the foregoing trends, an increasing portion of the population of industrialized nations will be living below the poverty line, with the middle class (the traditional backbone of stability for most every economy) all but disappearing. At present (by way of example) approximately 14.5% of the United States population, or 45 million persons live below the poverty line as defined by the U.S.  government, down from a higher number in the year 2000. This trend away from poverty will reverse by 2018, and the reversal will be significant -- perhaps as high as +/- 18% by the end of 2018.

Generally speaking, this tsunami of accelerating disruptive events will create more loss than actual opportunity until a deceleration of this onslaught can be reached; but with increased instability (i.e., via disruption) comes increased volatility (in life and in the capital markets) and decreased security for individuals and organizations. Just as virtual communications are de-socializing us as fully-sensory beings, an increasing amount of our Humanity and any of its associated benefits can be expected to decay in a radioactive field of aggressive, undeterred accelerating disruption.

This effect will continue until the perceived value of stability finally begins to outweigh the perceived benefits of unbridled disruption. At this point in the evolution of society, industry and capital markets in industrialized nations, the newly positive ideological construct of disruption innovation may just be a bit overrated. I'm neither a technophobe nor a Luddite, but I have learned to take the more distant and larger view when it comes to change. There's a storm, and we've already begun to feel its first winds.

Thank you, as always, for reading me.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist, Global Edge International Consulting Associates, Inc., and the Global Edge International Blog

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THE GLOBAL FUTURIST – Douglas E Castle

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com

Discovering and following significant trends across an extensive range of domestic and international consumer, business, demographic, cultural, economic, political, technological and other key areas of influence and impact on life and business; predicting future change, preparing for it and profiting from it.

Key Terms: business, forecasting, trends, future, prediction, disruption, displacement, innovation, complexity theory, economic waves and cycles, projections, planning



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The Virtual Workplace: The Inevitable Disruption - Douglas E. Castle

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The virtual workplace is more than just a tech-speak catchphrase. It is revolutionary, and its effects will be felt in every quarter. The Virtual Workplace - The Inevitable Disruption is a topic worthy of consideration to every trend spotter and every futurist.

The virtual workplace is increasingly becoming the norm, while the traditional brick and mortar offices housing the companies' headquarters are becoming increasingly obsolete - more symbolic of the "old paradigm" businesses. Companies are leaning to the extreme in the direction of telecommuting, and expect these disruptive and progressive trends to be on the rise. Please bear in mind that this article does not provide financial or investment advice:

1) Virtual meeting software and platforms will be in increasing demand. Citrix, WebEx and their other market-dominating peers are going to be experiencing competition for their market space due to the increasing demand for virtual forums;

2) Companies will be retaining more independent contractors and employing fewer in-house employees in order to reduce staffing costs and personnel-related overhead;

3) Commercial real estate will be taking a tumble as companies move to virtual environments and away from renting and purchasing buildings and office space;

4) An increasing number of 1 - 5 person corporations and limited liability companies will be formed as contracting and outsourcing increase and direct corporate employment decreases. Incorporation and registered agent businesses such as Legal Zoom and The Company Corporation will be experiencing increased revenues and market demand, as will their less-dominant competitors;

5) The demand for IT and computer systems professionals will increase, disrupting and displacing many middle-management, administrative and accounting positions;

6) Internationalism, in terms of globally-diversified markets and supply chain structure, will be on the rise as outsourcing and offshoring increase;

7) E-commerce will be displacing and outpacing traditional retail commerce;

8) Tax collections by governmental agencies will become increasingly difficult as the traditional employer-employee structure becomes increasingly displaced and de-centralized;

9) The utilization of household interior space will be shifting in favor of a greater percentage of work-at-home or home office space versus family and leisure space;

10) Society will become increasingly destabilized, and interpersonal and communications skills will suffer greatly due to a breakdown in the traditional face-to-face meeting paradigm.

The rise of the virtual workplace will ultimately affect every aspect of society, from simple reading and writing skills (declining) to the deterioration of international boundaries and political barriers (through outsourcing, offshoring, e-commerce and independent contracting). Be prepared for a radical change in all markets and marketplaces. This all-encompassing sea change is already underway and should be anticipated to accelerate in its course and severity over the next three to five years. After that, watch out for the rise of Artificial Intelligence.

Thank you, as always, for reading me.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist

Please join me on LinkedIn!








THE GLOBAL FUTURIST – Douglas E Castle

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com

Discovering and following significant trends across an extensive range of domestic and international consumer, business, demographic, cultural, economic, political, technological and other key areas of influence and impact on life and business; predicting future change, preparing for it and profiting from it.

Key Terms: business, forecasting, trends, future, prediction, disruption, displacement, innovation, complexity theory, economic waves and cycles, projections, planning



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This site is proudly affiliated with Global Edge International Consulting Associates, Inc. ["GEI”]
Free Subscription to The GEI Business Daily!
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Receive Our Free GEI RSS Feed!

Hot Issue Of TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS Newspaper Is Out! - 07.16.2013

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Here it comes...

TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS This newspaper is a supplement to The Global Futurist Blog. Published by Douglas E Castle 14 July 2013 Stories Leisure Business Education Technology Sports #trends #trending
Today's headline WTF, Internet? Social media holdouts, you're the worst Shared by Social Media CMO www­.digitaltrends.com - Disclaimer: I really love you, mom, please don’t be mad at me for the following anecdote. You’re probably cursing the gods for giving you a kid who decided to be a writer/is sort of a jerk. How abo...

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Cyber-Industrial Complex Redefines Military-Industrial Complex

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Sometimes humor is the best escape.

The article which follows was originally published in the Get Global Edge Blog which appears in the Global Edge Technologies Group LLC website. It brings to mind a kind of return, within a few years at most, to something akin to medieval times (except with the amazing power of the internet and the inevitable use of robotic drones as a tool of push-button death both abroad, and eventually within the United States. As Delilah said to Samson after he awoke to find himself with a prison guard haircut and the useless locks strewn on the floor about him, "How could you have told me something that would give me so much power and then have expected me not to use it."

History, like a bad lunch, has a way of repeating itself -- Samson of the Old Testament pulled down the twin twin towers with the last of his strength, and died amidst the rubble. Two of the towers of the World Trade Center literally pancaked down to the ground on 9/11, during an incredible act of terrorism. In fact, one of the towers (I believe it was Tower Number 4, a third tower which seemed to be minding its own business) simply collapsed despite the fact that no plane had hit it. Sort of like 'terrorism meets the tale of The Three Little Pigs and The Big Bad Wolf.'

I discovered a wonderfully telling article in the BigThink Daily IdeaFeed, a wonderful source of information, commentary and prognostication regarding major thought-provoking events and possible disruptors of the perceived status quo.

BigThink publications have either provided me with inspiration or have given me precious supporting information for articles which I have written for The Global Futurist Blog, and The Internationalist Page Blog.

In the late 1950's and going into the early 1970s, the talk amongst the cognoscenti in the United States was the prospect of the country falling under the thral of , and the citizenry becoming slaves to the Military-Industrial Complex -- a potent pairing of corporations and the military. First, there was the issue of corporations getting huge, lucrative contracts from the military; second was the threat posed by a large private sector contractor to the military if it decided to delay an order or to trade the national security for some seditious and traitorous acts of selling to foreign powers; thirdly, and most inevitably, was the slow but steady merger of the two forces such that the military would be more readily responsive (as would be a private army of hired mercenaries) to the needs of the companies which would have entrenched high-level management largely comprised of retired but influential military decision makers, than to the country and its safety and security interests.

Nobody wanted to say "private militaries or paramilitaries, financed and loyal to multinational corporations would have loyalty to their multinational masters instead of to any sovereign state," but an increasing number of major corporations were entering into transnational and international contracting agreements and business combinations such as mergers, acquisitions and co-ventures, and symbolic patriotism increasingly took a back seat to the prospect of actually arming either the highest bidder at a weapons auction, or arming both sides in a bloody conflict and profiting from a drawn-out war. War and the ensuing reconstruction, from the 1980s to today, is seen as being one of the most profitable businesses in existence.

Now the principal means of designing, developing, transmitting and storing crucial military ordnance product (weapons systems and countermeasures) and tactical information is via Internet and by physically accessible hosting servers, such that the nerve center and the core vulnerability of any significantly industrialized nation is a network of computers, wires and electrons.

Companies and the military are both increasingly obsessed (and understandably so) with cybersecurity and with the threat posed by hackers and hacker groups. Whomsoever controls the storage and transmittal of data has the power, in theory, to rule large portions of the international landscape. Combine this, for better or for worse, with an unarmed citizenry, and you have the recipe for a corporate-military takeover of the governments and of the enslavement of the unfortunate residents.

Cyberstorage (storing data) and cybercommunications (transmitting data from station to station) are the two greatest strategic vulnerabilities in any private sector or public sector entity.  The trained special forces experts and snipers are no longer the most dangerous Humans -- the most dangerous Humans are skillful hackers who are protected by these tactical field operatives. And these field operatives and proficient killers and infiltrators are increasingly private contractors, "rented" by governments from large corporations in the "security" business.

Hence the newer term for the Military-Industrial Complex, with it "war for profit" credo: let us give a warm greeting to the Cyber-Industrial Complex, its refined, more lethal offspring. 



CYBERSECURITY
The NSA and the Rise of the Cyber-Industrial Complex Edward Snowden, the whistleblower who went public with the NSA's clandestine data mining operation, forms part of an increasing crossover between government and private cybersecurity organizations.
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The future belongs to the best hackers and their hypnotic handlers or "controls" as they like to call these amoral and effective results-oriented operatives in the cinema.

Douglas E. Castle for Global Edge Technologies Group, LLC, a Member of The CFI Group Of Companies

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