Showing posts with label industry domination. Show all posts
Showing posts with label industry domination. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

The Future Of War - And There Will Definitely Be A Big Future In It.. 4 Predictions For The Next Half Century

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War, and the obsessive urge to compete violently may be the result of some combination of hard-wired protective instincts (as in 'the best defense is a good offense'), hunter-gather deep-brained programming and societal environmental factors. There is a sad element of anti-social pragmatism to war, conquest and domination... it is far easier to take from another (by overpowering or outmaneuvering that person) than to go through the rigors of earning or creating our own.  The unspoken question has always been, "If I could steal it from somebody else instead of struggling to earn it, which would I choose, as a rational Human Being, if I could get away it, and go unpunished or unopposed.

The sense of entitlement so often associated with those who have already tasted great power and wealth (and also, just as sadly, with those who have lived on the dole or on government hand-outs for several consecutive generations) plays out like this...

"The middle class make it, and the entitled ones take it."

Philosophically, war may well be a more efficient means of satisfying some of our primitive and basic needs (as contrasted with Maslow's Heirarchy Of Needs), in that it is essentially a means of commerce (don't laugh) where you, as the conqueror, dominator, victor or racketeer simply get what you need at minimal cost, with minimal time and minimal effort. 

Children, when very young, steal toys from each other much of the time; each thinks of himself or herself as being the center of a localized universe, where instant gratification is right, and there are no other opinions or consequences to consider. Grownups embezzle, steal, defraud, rob and pillage to acquire the means to suit their needs through what are considered antisocial tactics and strategies. This is an economically driven choice.

But then, there are those who will do damage to the property and persons of others simply because of a sociopathic compulsion to inflict pain. Others love conquest and view it as a sport, or as a basic means of indisputably demonstrating superiority.

War has a long history. It dates back as far as archeological records indicate. And it has a guaranteed future. There are very few things of which a Global Futurist or a trend-spotter can be so certain. War has much more in its favor than does peace.

War provides a staging ground for testing new technology -- things like the atomic bomb, drones, poisons and pestilences;

War provides a laboratory for us to test the limits of the human body and mind -- the soldier makes a great test subject (with or without informed consent) for things like LSD, DMT, steroids, amphetamines and a host of other drugs, psychological operations and technologies that some less-than-empathetic scientists simply must "take for a spin." The Nazis did it. The Russians did it. And the Americans have done it.

But most importantly, war provides and opportunity to either stimulate a sluggish economy, distract the suspicious or disgruntled citizenry ("Let 'em worry about the war! It'll keep 'em too busy to question some of our slickery [a Lingovation] and keep 'em too busy to mount an internal rebellion."), and to make certain of us incredibly wealthy. Heck - don't you see the other, more mundane meaning in the time-honored designation "Soldier of Fortune"?

The following is an excerpt from a posting (more like a treatise) by a gentleman named Paul Mattick on The Economics Of War, published in 2010. Take a deep breath, and read it in its fullness:

Ever since Lord Keynes’ dictum that wars—like pyramid-building and earthquakes—may serve to increase wealth, it has been increasingly recognized that war and preparation for war are necessary aspects of the prevailing economy and a condition of its proper functioning. Because, in recent history, only inflation and war have resulted in full utilization of productive capacities, the question has been raised whether this association between war and full employment is an accident or a necessity. It is usually answered with the assurance that, although it is no accident, it is not a necessity, for government expenditures can lead to full employment whether they are geared to the needs of war or to the requirements of peace. With full employment as the sole goal of economic activity, even people opposed to war do not seriously object to the creation of "wealth" in the form of armaments and military installation, even though they may prefer "wealth" in the form of social welfare. Quite independent of preferences, government spending includes an always growing amount for purposes of defense. The "military wealth" of the United States is said to exceed $124 billion. This "Real and Personal Property of the Defense Department" does not include investments in atomic energy estimated at $12 1/2 billion, nor the properties of the "National Plant and Equipment Reserve," nor the supplies and equipment in overseas depots, nor the military assistance to allied and favored nations. The great bulk of the inventory consists of things that can be used up, wasted, or that will become obsolete. The Defense Department is actually a tremendous business enterprise. In 1955, for instance, it spent more than $42 billion, or about one-seventh of the national income. It was directly responsible for the employment of close to 4 1/2 million people, or about 7 percent of the national labor force. As always, so now, too, there is much talk of cutting government spending and reducing the budget deficit. This economy talk, however, does not include spending for military purposes. On this point both "savers" and "spenders" think alike. The "defense establishment," as the President made clear recently, "is an exception to the general desire of living within the amounts set by the Budget Bureau after it had cut the spending requests." Opposing all cuts and arguing for increased government spending, Truman’s former chief economist Leon H. Keyserling found it necessary to complain that "we remain content with a defense strength far below the minimum judged essential by most experts." But then, spending for defense loses its sinister implications when it is referred to as ‘‘rising cost of peace." 
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Aside from the economic lure of war, as stated before, there is the in situ experimentation process which accompanies the profiteering activity. This is discussed in an article excerpted from BigThink, which I have read several times. Please take a moment to read it and let your mind run free in an imaginary futurescape of endless wars. After that preparatory exercise, please come back for several predictions about war which I would like to share with you. Really. PREDICTIONS.

DANGEROUS IDEAS [From BigThink Ideafeed]
Military Readying Mind-Reading Equipment for the Battlefield
Mind reading devices that can alert soldiers to things they've seen, but that their brains aren't yet aware of, could save lives. Some scientists worry it could also extend the theater of war.
READ NOW
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During the next half century, there will be a great deal of wars. But they will be different in many ways than they have ever been before. As this entry is being written, the reader should bear in mind that more than 70% of the world's proclaimed and recognized sovereign nations are involved in militant hostilities, either directly or indirectly...


FOUR PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE WARS OF THE NEXT HALF CENTURY:

1) Much of nation-to-nation warfare will be conducted utilizing remote robotic technology (drones and the like), computer hacking (and cracking) to destroy key utilities, subliminal messaging through the social media, and communications blackouts or blockades (to destroy command and control, and to keep the citizens or subjects of a targeted nation from being able to communicate without physical contact. Viral propaganda and computer viruses will play major roles [front and center] in generalized full military and civilian attack strategies;

2) Ground warfare (infantry), and air warfare, both physical and logistical by their nature will utilize combined technologies incorporating: stealth; motion detection; heat signatures; infrared; encrypted radio satellite uplinks and downlinks for precise geolocation and constant communication; weaponry using advanced supersonic and subsonic psycho-emotional disruption; plasma waves, laser weapons, and localized climatic disturbance weapons and variations on the augmented railgun will be used in lieu of conventional automatic weaponry and explosive devices because of the increasing demand for A) non-nuclear weapons with high megadeath and geographical coverage potential, or, [ironically] B) because of their tactical targeted precision - each the opposite of the other, yet both complements of each other;

3) There will be sobering incidences of the use (limited to major cities and to portions of countries) of chemical and biological weapons, as well as a weaponized deployment of  swarming nanotechnology -- this last technology is analogous to a swarming of bees with a united goal, instant telepathic communications (as if of one mind), and heuristic adjustments to overcome impediments to target neutralization -- this man-made peril could have more killing potential as biological and chemical weapons;

4) Most substantial strike forces will be privatized armies (mercenary forces) with allegiance only to the multinational mega-companies which either contract with them or which own them captively as defenders and as internal company profit centers. These soldiers will be true warriors, psychologically, emotionally and physically engineered and trained for targeted destruction. There will be experiments with, and the testing of machine "enhancements" implanted into these warriors.
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IN SUMMARY:

It promises to be a dim future for law and a bright future for order, as war becomes a privatized, incorporated enterprise, Loyalties will be tested and shifted. The geographical boundaries of many of the countries as we now know them will be altered. My prediction is for the emergence of a high-technology replay of Medieval times -- a frightening version of a science fiction writer's combination of incredible technolgies in the hands of brutes with Middle-Ages mindsets. 

I am frightened of our invariable movement in this unenlightened direction.





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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

TRUSTING YOUR LIFE TO A STRANGER (OR TWO)

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TRUSTING YOUR LIFE TO A STRANGER
Re-posted 10 July 2009

Dear Friends and Futurists:


A headline from the NEW YORK TIMES:
Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Wednesday, July 8, 2009 -- 12:39 AM ET-----
Google Plans to Introduce a PC Operating System

"In a direct challenge to Microsoft, Google is expected to announce on Wednesday that it is developing an operating system for a personal computer based on its Chrome browser, according to two people briefed on Google's plans. The move would sharpen the already intense competition between Google and Microsoft, whose Windows operating system controls the basic functions of the vast majority of personal computers."
####

COMMENTARY - PART 1: The Extremely Frightening Scenario

Microsoft's operating system has made Bill Gate's one of the world's wealthiest monopolists, and has given Microsoft access to incredible amounts of data (public, private and highly classified), as well as control of the functioning of the majority of the world's communications, analytic and automated systems and facilities. Think of some of the potential abuses of this vast power:

1. Access to all of your banked money and securities, and everyone else's.

2. Access to all of your secured facilities (door locks, bank vaults, power plants, government military installations and nuclear facilities).

3. Access to anything (all information) put into any email, computer file, or scanned file.

Google has a similar power over our lives.

Either of these two goliaths could have most of the world at its mercy. And now, they are openly at war. When you think about the implications of this, do you ever imagine yourself as a skinny, loincloth-clad dolt with his legs chained together cuaght in the middle of a tusk battle between two wooly mammoths? I do. I even become claustrophobic.

Either one of these companies has the ability to collapse an economy, trigger a war, and much, much worse. This goes well beyond the Forbin Project. This goes well beyond Absolute Power. As a matter of fact, either of these companies has the ability to terminate Human existence as we have come to know it -- they are bigger than any governments -- they are wired right into governments. We, as Human Beings, are fully at their mercy. We cannot police or regulate entities which are so much more powerful than ourselves and our greatest institutions. We can either trust their organizational morality, or we can distrust and fear them...waiting for the day when they choose to openly declare their reign over our species.

Each of these two juggernauts would like to engulf and devour (or obliterate) the other. As engaged adversaries, they are already formidable to the civilian population...as a combined entity produced by a politically-expedient marriage of oligarchs, they may well be more so. Either company has, at present, sufficient available cash to purchase virtually every small or large (but unprofitable) communications innovator (i.e., Twitter, YouTube, etc.) which has an important position of utility in the marketplace. Feedburner, the largest and best-known RSS feedcaster in the growing blogosphere is now owned by Blogger -- which, in turn, is owned by Google. These types of transactions are textbook cases in vertical integration.

The potential conflicts of interest in this domination are also very frightening. Microsoft's operating system has all but squeezed out all other prospective players in the PC marketplace by coercing companies to use its operating system or suffer the "consequences" of not being able to offer other vital capabilities and programs; Google is the world's best-known search engine, but markets its own products...you can speak about search engine ranking algorithms until your fuses blow out, but pedestrian common sense would lead a rational person (or even some of my closest friends) to the conclusion that Google might give its own profit-makers higher rankings. For all I know, having Google rank or rate sites might be every bit as sensible as having a sixth-grader mark his own test paper, or having an active alcoholic in charge of tending bar or maintaining the accounting records relating to the wine and liquor inventory.

Plainly speaking, we are entrusting our lives to a very small number of organizations that might put their own profitability and power ahead of our consumer satisfaction experience. Power does have the proven potential to corrupt, or at very least, to tempt even the righteous.

What can any person or organization do to stop this domination and its potential abuses? Absolutely nothing. Anti-trust lawsuits and other prosecution or regulation tactics and strategies are about as effective as trying to make an unarmed citizen's arrest of a machine gun-toting terrorist on methamphetamine. [Yes, yes...I know...the metaphors are abominable but I am getting my meaning across]. A prudent Futurist would do well to accept their domination as reality and predict and prepare for their actions. Expecting a moral prerogative or a government agency to come to the rescue is (oh, no -- not another metaphor....or is this one more of an allusion?) is tilting at windmills.

The most frightening components of this nightmare scenario are if:

  • One or both of the companies decide to get more aggressively involved in lobbying and kingmaking in government;

  • One or both of the companies experiences a significant "glitch," and the systems that our tenuous civilization and infrastructure cease to operate properly - the results would be immediate and calamitous;

  • Any one of a number of rogue or disgruntled programmers at either of the companies decides to inflict damage upon the masses by creating or launching a formidable computer virus or worm. These bright young minds have the demonstrated ability to destroy as well as create. There are some of their number who might enjoy the rush of adrenalin associated with hacking into or otherwise corrupting some major programs which operate almost every aspect of our lives...from traffic lights and commerce, to nuclear power plants and the entire national defense system. It is amazing to think that so many young, brilliant and virtually unsupervised staffers have immediate, unimpeded and unquestioned access to potential weapons of mass destruction. The push of the right button at the right moment can turn the lights out all over the grid. On that note, here is just a small sample of this incalculably damaging potential at play:

Click on: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090708/ap_on_go_ot/us_cyber_attack . This article appears courtesy of Associated Press (AP), and is titled, "Federal Web sites knocked out by cyber attack." The incident was reported on July 8th. As noted earlier, this is just one small sample.

I personally think that the realistic threat of a devastating cyber-attack poses a far more clear and present danger than that of: nuclear war caused by either sovereign nations or fanatical fringe groups; major civil unrest (an oxymoron, there), Global Warming, Massive Climatic Change, or poisoning of food or water supplies. Stringent emissions standards, better banking oversight and gun control legislation won't make an iota of difference. If you'd like to start an interesting discussion at a party attended by heads of state and senior military officials, just innocently ask them something along the lines of, "Hey guys! I'm curious. Do you folks have redundant computer systems hosted and managed by several unrelated vendors...I mean, like, a 'backup system'?" The things that we count upon, the things which we depend upon...these are our greatest areas of vulnerability.

COMMENTARY - PART 2: What We Might Expect

There is wisdom in being prepared to address those things which we cannot change. Hence this whole business of trend-spotting and extrapolating, and its natural application to the these goliaths with virtually limitless power. Let's anticipate what they might be likely to do, and what me might be able to do, either in preparation or in response, to use this knowledge to our advantage.

1. THE SOLO INTEGRATION PLAY. In 2002, eBay bought PayPal (a merchant payment processing system, ideal for ecommerce) for the sum of $1.5 Billion. It is indeed a meaningful marriage, giving eBay customers an immediate means of being able to settle their sales and purchases. Since eBay is a publicly-traded entity, with its stock held by a large number of individual shareholders, eBay's gain is its shareholders' gain -- many shareholders use eBay's services, as well. The whole scenario looks rather like a cooperative or a credit union, but without any real banking being involved.

With so many financial institutions in tenuous financial straits, there may well be an opportunity for Google and Microsoft to get into a) more of the merchant payment processing business, and b) some serious aspects of the retail banking business. As an increasing volume of all business is transacted via internet, it makes a good deal of sense for this market to be further harvested for financing. This could most efficiently be accomplished from the standpoints of both regulatory compliance and logistics by having some of the existing financial institutions provide the "backoffice" functions for these giants. Ironically, these backoffice functions are all computerized and invariably involve, well...Microsoft! A silly analogy: Computers and banking are like chicldren and loaded guns.

2. THE CLASH OF THE TITANS PLAY. In this scenario, Google unsettles Microsoft by hitting it where it hurts most...in its operating system. Google provides a great deal of consumer communications services, a great deal of value-added innovation, and has a greater cross-section of the consumer marketplace (because of the dependence upon its many services) than does Microsoft. Google is perceived as more innovative, more consumer-friendly, and more customer interactive than Microsoft, which is dominated by the personal presence of Bill Gates and a seemingly endless string of bad "upgrades" -- can you smell them? Vista, Internet Explorer 8...all of which are beta-tested on the public. Google appears to be more receptive to feedback from the marketplace - from its core consumers. In a battle to the death, and barring a business combination of the two companies, Google will outmaneuver Microsoft, to the cheers of the public (and of Steve Jobs, jumping about gleefullyover at Apple).

3. THE TO EACH ITS OWN PLAY. It is possible that Google will simply become more of a social media services provider, and Microsoft will become an increasingly operations-oriented company (like the IBM of old, but more progressive). It is possible that Microsoft will creep into the financial services industry, while Google keeps polishing its Chrome. Let's not forget that Microsoft's operating system is very deeply embedded into the marketplace -- like a heartworm in your favorite pooch. In this, the most optimistic scenario, we will still be ruled by two giants. And there are numerous individuals within each of these monoliths who have the capability of doing incredible damage on a whim -- simply and quickly. No guns, plutonium, carbon monoxide, melamine, or vial of Andromeda Strain required.

I have taken the step of backing up this article after writing each paragraph. I feel vulnerable to a loss of hours upon hours of hard work due to an unexpected computer glitch. It has happened to me before. At least when the lights go out in a storm, we have an emergency generator.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AFTER THE ORIGINAL RELEASE OF THIS POST (Added 7/11/09):

ALTERNATIVE TITLE: DEPENDENCIES, TRUST and VULNERABILITY

Futurists: What is the greatest actual threat to civilization? Are we taking too much for granted?http://twitlik.com/GOOGLESOFT #TNNW -DC

Reference terms:
google, microsoft, dependencies, trust, vulnerability, monopoly, power, Blogs by Douglas Castle, merchant payment processing services, finance and banking, vertical integration, The National Networker, SrMeetUp, Internal Energy Plus, clear and present danger, destruction potential, command, regulation, domination, #TNNW, #TNNW_BUZZWORKS, #SrMeetUp, #Braintenance, indolence, inertia, behavioral psychology, search engines, data mining, redundant systems, antitrust regulations, media controls, operating systems...abuses of power, acquisitions, Douglas Castle blogs, Feedburner, google, industry domination, mergers, microsoft, monopolies, search engines, YouTube

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