Eight Technologies Will Dominate The Near-Term Future

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EIGHT TECHNOLOGIES WILL SHAPE THE NEAR-TERM FUTURE

According to an IBM-led study of C-Suite executives, these are the technological foci (focuses) which will shape the near-term (3-5 years) future. While C-Suite executives tend to be fadists more than Global Futurists, the power of the effect of their self-fulfilling prophesy must be given its due. It might be a good exercise to at least understand the aspects and implications of each of these innovative areas before we judge the C-Suite denizens too harshly.

Cloud Computing And Related Services:

Cloud computing, also known as on-demand computing, is a kind of internet-based computing, where shared resources and information are provided to computers and other devices on-demand. It is a model for enabling ubiquitous, on-demand access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources.

Cloud computing and storage solutions provide users and enterprises with various capabilities to store and process their data in third-party data centers. It relies on sharing of resources to achieve coherence and economies of scale, similar to a utility (like the electricity grid) over a network. At the foundation of cloud computing is the broader concept of converged infrastructure and shared services.

Cloud computing is a model for enabling ubiquitous, convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort.
Cloud computing, or in simpler shorthand just "the cloud", also focuses on maximizing the effectiveness of the shared resources. Cloud resources are usually not only shared by multiple users but are also dynamically reallocated per demand. This can work for allocating resources to users. For example, a cloud computer facility that serves European users during European business hours with a specific application (e.g., email) may reallocate the same resources to serve North American users during North America's business hours with a different application (e.g., a web server). This approach helps maximize the use of computing power while reducing the overall cost of resources by using less power, air conditioning, rack space, etc. to maintain the system. With cloud computing, multiple users can access a single server to retrieve and update their data without purchasing licenses for different applications.



Mobile Solutions:



Definition

Mobile solutions refer to the online services that are made available to users while they are on the go. Mobile solutions technology has not only traversed geographical boundaries but has also accessed various domains. Providers of the technology continue to provide services in many different countries through by making use of the many developments in mobile technology. Today, this technology continues to give services in tune to today’s urban mobility needs.

Components

The first component is wireless data networks. This refers to an electronic communications process that allows the orderly transmitting and receiving of data through the use of a wireless network of computers. The next component is wireless data modems. These are devices that allow computers to connect to a wireless local area network (WLAN) without wires or cabling for transmitting and receiving data. 2 Devices need this in order to connect to networks. The third component is mobile computers. These are devices that are wireless ready. These can be easily connected to wireless modems and run wireless enabled applications. These include laptops and notebook computers, handheld computers, palm-sized computers and many more. Next is wireless middleware. Middleware is defined as software that connects different parts of an application or a series of applications. The last component is wireless-enabled applications. These refer to programs and other software that can be readily used once connected to a network.

Functionality and General Uses

There are many mobile solutions providers all over the world. Each provider strives to set itself apart from the other providers by boosting its competitive advantage through differentiation, lower costs and the formation of alliances with leading companies.
Mobile solutions providers have an array of services. Some providers focus purely on payment solutions. Some providers offer an electronic wallet feature that allows businesses to make or accept payments, accept international and local credit card payments and industry specific payments using only their mobile phone. There are also providers that offer online hotel reservations with a deposit, ticketing solutions for events and events organizers, mobile banking and other electronic payment services.
Some providers offer mobile solutions for personal use. Some make use of services such as information alerts and notifications, travel updates, news alerts, sports updates and horoscopes. Other mobile solutions providers have brought the chat services to a whole new level through personal chat, dating and personal consultations. Some providers generate great profit by providing entertainment to their clients through quizzes and games, jokes and cartoons, videos with the use of mobile phones with 3G.
Some providers focus on mobile solutions for providing corporate or business use through file storage, file sharing and mobile e-mailing system. Some companies involved in direct selling also make use of short message service or SMS to allow their customers to check availability of stocks, updates on products, check distribution address and other details for their business. The most common use of mobile solutions technology today is for direct marketing. Companies are able to utilize mobile solutions for their promos and contests and brand advertisements. They are able to advertise their products and services through SMS. Because of the popularity of SMS all over the globe, most companies make use of this as their medium in their promotions.



The Internet Of Things (IoT):



The Internet of Things (IoT) is an environment in which objects, animals or people are provided with unique identifiers and the ability to transfer data over a network without requiring human-to-human or human-to-computer interaction. IoT has evolved from the convergence of wireless technologies, micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) and the Internet. The concept may also be referred to as the Internet of Everything.
The Internet of Things (IoT) is the network of physical objects or "things" embedded with electronics, software, sensors, and network connectivity, which enables these objects to collect and exchange data. The Internet of Things allows objects to be sensed and controlled remotely across existing network infrastructure, creating opportunities for more direct integration between the physical world and computer-based systems, and resulting in improved efficiency, accuracy and economic benefit. Each thing is uniquely identifiable through its embedded computing system but is able to interoperate within the existing Internet infrastructure. Experts estimate that the IoT will consist of almost 50 billion objects by 2020.
British entrepreneur Kevin Ashton first coined the term in 1999 while working at the Auto-ID Labs (originally called Auto-ID centers - referring to a global network of RFID connected objects). Typically, IoT is expected to offer advanced connectivity of devices, systems, and services that goes beyond machine-to-machine communications (M2M) and covers a variety of protocols, domains, and applications. The interconnection of these embedded devices (including smart objects), is expected to usher in automation in nearly all fields, while also enabling advanced applications like a Smart Grid, and expanding to the areas such as smart cities.
"Things," in the IoT sense, can refer to a wide variety of devices such as heart monitoring implants, biochip transponders on farm animals, electric clams in coastal waters, automobiles with built-in sensors, or field operation devices that assist firefighters in search and rescue operations. These devices collect useful data with the help of various existing technologies and then autonomously flow the data between other devices. Current market examples include smart thermostat systems and washer/dryers that use Wi-Fi for remote monitoring.
Besides the plethora of new application areas for Internet connected automation to expand into, IoT is also expected to generate large amounts of data from diverse locations that is aggregated very quickly, thereby increasing the need to better index, store and process such data.



Cognitive Computing:



Cognitive computing is the simulation of human thought processes in a computerized model.
Cognitive computing involves self-learning systems that use data mining, pattern recognition and natural language processing to mimic the way the human brain works. The goal of cognitive computing is to create automated IT systems that are capable of solving problems without requiring human assistance.
Cognitive computing systems use machine learning algorithms. Such systems continually acquire knowledge from the data fed into them by mining data for information. The systems refine the way they look for patterns and as well as the way they process data so they become capable of anticipating new problems and modeling possible solutions.
Cognitive computing is used in numerous artificial intelligence (AI) applications, including expert systems, natural language programming, neural networks, robotics and virtual reality. The term cognitive computing is closely associated with IBM’s cognitive computer system, Watson.
Cognitive computing (CC) makes a new class of problems computable. It addresses complex situations that are characterized by ambiguity and uncertainty; in other words it handles human kinds of problems. In these dynamic, information-rich, and shifting situations, data tends to change frequently, and it is often conflicting. The goals of users evolve as they learn more and redefine their objectives. To respond to the fluid nature of users’ understanding of their problems, the cognitive computing system offers a synthesis not just of information sources but of influences, contexts, and insights. To do this, systems often need to weigh conflicting evidence and suggest an answer that is “best” rather than “right”.
Cognitive computing systems make context computable. They identify and extract context features such as hour, location, task, history or profile to present an information set that is appropriate for an individual or for a dependent application engaged in a specific process at a specific time and place. They provide machine-aided serendipity by wading through massive collections of diverse information to find patterns and then apply those patterns to respond to the needs of the moment.
Cognitive computing systems redefine the nature of the relationship between people and their increasingly pervasive digital environment. They may play the role of assistant or coach for the user, and they may act virtually autonomously in many problem-solving situations. The boundaries of the processes and domains these systems will affect are still elastic and emergent. Their output may be prescriptive, suggestive, instructive, or simply entertaining.



Advanced Manufacturing Technologies:



Advanced manufacturing technology is defined as computer-controlled or micro-electronics-based equipment used in the design, manufacture or handling of a product.
Typical applications include computer-aided design (CAD), computer- aided engineering (CAE), flexible machining centres, robots, automated guided vehicles, and automated storage and retrieval systems. These may be linked by communications systems (factory local area networks) into integrated flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) and ultimately into an overall automated factory or computer-integrated manufacturing system (CIM).



New Energy Sources And Systems:



There are the variations on the fossil fuel formulations and then there are the “alternative” energy sources which either minimize or negate any carbon footprint and are ecologically more desirable.
The variations on the fossil fuel formulations include more extensive offshore drilling and fracking, which is the process of drilling down into the earth before a high-pressure water mixture is directed at the rock to release the gas inside. Water, sand and chemicals are injected into the rock at high pressure which allows the gas to flow out to the head of the well. Both drilling and fracking have their share of pro-environmental opponents, perhaps with valid reason.
Everyday, the world produces carbon dioxide that is released to the earth’s atmosphere and which will still be there in one hundred years time.
This increased content of Carbon Dioxide increases the warmth of our planet and is believed by many to be the main cause of the so-called “Global Warming Effect”. One answer to global warming is to replace and retrofit current technologies with alternatives that have comparable or better performance, but do not emit carbon dioxide. This is generally referred to as alternate energy.
By 2050, one-third of the world's energy will need to come from solar, wind, and other renewable resources. Who says this? British Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell, two of the world's largest oil companies, do. Climate change, population growth, and fossil fuel depletion mean that renewables will need to play a bigger role in the future than they do today.
Alternative energy refers to energy sources that have no undesired consequences such for example fossil fuels or nuclear energy. Alternative energy sources are renewable and are thought to be "free" energy sources. They all have lower carbon emissions, compared to conventional energy sources. These include Biomass Energy, Wind Energy, Solar Energy, Geothermal Energy, Hydroelectric Energy sources. Combined with the use of recycling, the use of clean alternative energies such as the home use of solar power systems will help ensure Humankind's survival into the 21st century and beyond.



Bioengineering:

Bioengineering is the application of the life sciences, physical sciences, mathematics and engineering principles to define and solve problems in biology, medicine, health care and other fields.

Bioengineering is a relatively new discipline that combines many aspects of traditional engineering fields such as chemical, electrical and mechanical engineering. Examples of bioengineering include:

• artificial hips, knees and other joints
• ultrasound, MRI and other medical imaging techniques
• using engineered organisms for chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturing
  

This vast field of integrating or developing mechanical, electrical or design skills to either perform work on, or to become integrated with physiology, also subsumes aspects of stem cell research, the Human Genome Project, cloning and biometrics. These are all terms worth being familiar with, as they will become more and more prominent in the practice of medicine and life sciences in general, and due to the high likelihood of an increasing number of very large companies (conglomerates) who will be investing increasing sums into the research and development of biomedical engineering.



Man-Machine Hybrids [Does Anyone Remember “Robocop”?]:



Yes, indeed... remotely man-operated drones may be considered a crude example of man-machine hybrids (more likely they are man-machine partnerships), but Futurist and scientist Ray Kurzweil has a fascinating view of what true-man-machine hybrids are and will be, and what their potential might be.
Human brains will be boosted with artificial intelligence at some point after the year 2030, one of the foremost thinkers on Artificial Intelligence has said.
The brain will connect to online Artificial Intelligence to become a “hybrid of biological and non-biological thinking”, Ray Kurzweil, director of engineering at Google, suggested.
Tiny “nanobots” made from DNA strands would connect our brains to the internet, allowing us to augment our own intelligence with artificial intelligence, he said.
Professor Stephen Hawking, noted physicist, mathematician, cosmologist and Futurist has expressed fear that Artificial Intelligence might eventually be the undoing of our species and lead to our ultimate demise as a species.
This subject has considerable overlap with biomechanical and biomedical engineering, except that in these last two fields of endeavor, the physical body is integrated with robotic or artificial parts or enhancements, without a change in the basic operation of the Human mind. In Kurzweil's view of the future, the mind will be an amalgam of native Human (organic) thought and neurological capabilities with computer intelligence, storage, pattern recognition and enhanced learning and retention capabilities.



The take-away from all of the foregoing information is not necessarily that each of the areas identified will be one of the “Next Big Things” within the coming three to five-year period; but it is a safe bet to assume (and we all know what happens when we count too much on assumptions) that each of the identified areas will be where C-Suite executives, in their capacities as decision makers, will be investing money and time. Carrying this a step further, The Global Futurist and Global Edge International Consulting Associates, Inc. would see that these anticipated expenditures of money, time and focus are actually leading indicators of the growth and dominance in business and society of these technologies. Being a bit conservative, one might think that these technologies will come to market dominance during the next five to seven-year period, allowing for this “lead indicator effect”.


As always, thank you for reading me.

Douglas Castle, for The Global Futurist, Global Edge International Consulting Associates, Inc. and The Global Edge International Blog

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THE GLOBAL FUTURIST – Douglas E Castle

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com

Discovering and following significant trends across an extensive range of domestic and international consumer, business, demographic, cultural, economic, political, technological and other key areas of influence and impact on life and business; predicting future change, preparing for it and profiting from it.

Key Terms: business, forecasting, trends, future, prediction, disruption, displacement, innovation, complexity theory, economic waves and cycles, projections, planning



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Employment Outlook: Dramatically Changing Landscape

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Thomas Frey is a well-regarded and very thoughtful Futurist and has made some very provocative predictions for the coming five- to fifteen-year time horizon. His site, the FuturistSpeaker.com is one of my most visited blog sources of information. While I do not agree with Mr. Frey about everything, and while he and The Global Futurist Blog may be at odds about certain potentialities for both the near term and the longer term, I am largely in alignment with his opinion (expressed in a blog posting of about a month ago) regarding which careers will be disappearing and which careers will be coming into demand and prominence. I would strong advise that you read what follows carefully, and start adjusting your plans rapidly. When Douglas E. Castle and Thomas Frey are in full agreement, I believe that increases the viability of the information...

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When I brought up the idea of 2 billion jobs disappearing (roughly 50% of all the jobs on the planet) it wasn’t intended as a doom and gloom outlook. Rather, it was intended as a wakeup call, letting the world know how quickly things are about to change, and letting academia know that much of the battle ahead will be taking place at their doorstep.

Here is a brief overview of five industries – where the jobs will be going away and the jobs that will likely replace at least some of them – over the coming decades.

1.) Power Industry

Until now, the utility companies existed as a safe career path where little more than storm-related outages and an occasional rate increase would cause industry officials to raise their eyebrows.

Yet the public has become increasingly vocal about their concerns over long-term health and environmental issues relating to the current structure and disseminating methods of of the power industry, causing a number of ingenious minds to look for a better way of doing things.

Recently I was introduced to two solutions that seem predestined to start the proverbial row of dominoes to start falling. There are likely many more waiting in the wings, but these two capitalize on existing variances found in nature and are unusually elegant in the way they solve the problem of generating clean power at a low cost.

Both companies have asked me to keep quiet about their technology until they are a bit farther along, but I will at least explain the overarching ramifications.

I should emphasize that both technologies are intended to work inside the current utility company structure, so the changes will happen within the industry itself.

To begin with, these technologies will shift utilities around the world from national grids to micro grids that can be scaled from a single home to entire cities. The dirty power era will finally be over and the power lines that dangle menacingly over our neighborhoods, will begin to come down. All of them.

While the industry will go through a long-term shrinking trend, the immediate shift will cause many new jobs to be created.

Jobs Going Away

• Power generation plants will begin to close down.
• Coal plants will begin to close down.
• Many railroad and transportation workers will no longer be needed.
• Even wind farms, natural gas, and bio-fuel generators will begin to close down.
• Ethanol plants will be phased out or repurposed.
• Utility company engineers, gone.
• Line repairmen, gone.

New Jobs Created

• Manufacturing power generation units the size of ac units will go into full production.
• Installation crews will begin to work around the clock.
• The entire national grid will need to be taken down (a 20 year project). Much of it will be recycled and the recycling process alone will employ many thousands of people.
• Micro-grid operations will open in every community requiring a new breed of engineers, managers, and regulators.
• Many more.

2.) Automobile Transportation – Going Driverless

Over the next 10 years we will see the first wave of autonomous vehicles hit the roads, with some of the first inroads made by vehicles that deliver packages, groceries, and fast-mail envelopes.

The first wave of driverless vehicles will be luxury vehicles that allow you to kick back, listen to music, have a cup of coffee, stop wherever you need to along the way, stay productive in transit with connections to the Internet, make phone calls, and even watch a movie or two, for substantially less than the cost of today’s limos.

Driverless technology will initially require a driver, but it will quickly creep into everyday use much as airbags did. First as an expensive option for luxury cars, but eventually it will become a safety feature stipulated by the government.

The greatest benefits of this kind of automation won’t be realized until the driver’s hands are off the wheel. With over 2 million people involved in car accidents every year in the U.S., it won’t take long for legislators to be convinced that driverless cars are a substantially safer and more effective option.

The privilege of driving is about to be redefined.

Jobs Going Away

• Taxi and limo drivers, gone.
• Bus drivers, gone.
• Truck drivers, gone.
• Gas stations, parking lots, traffic cops, traffic courts, gone.
• Fewer doctors and nurses will be needed to treat injuries.
• Pizza (and other food) delivery drivers, gone.
• Mail delivery drivers, gone.
• FedEx and UPS delivery jobs, gone.
• As people shift from owning their own vehicles to a transportation-on-demand system, the total number of vehicles manufactured will also begin to decline.

New Jobs Created

• Delivery dispatchers
• Traffic monitoring systems, although automated, will require a management team.
• Automated traffic designers, architects, and engineers
• Driverless “ride experience” people.
• Driverless operating system engineers.
• Emergency crews for when things go wrong.

3.) Education

The OpenCourseware Movement took hold in 2001 when MIT started recording all their courses and making them available for free online. They currently have over 2080 courses available that have been downloaded 131 million times.

In 2004 the Khan Academy was started with a clear and concise way of teaching science and math. Today they offer over 2,400 courses that have been downloaded 116 million times.

Now, the 8,000 pound gorilla in the OpenCourseware space is Apple’s iTunes U. This platform offers over 500,000 courses from 1,000 universities that have been downloaded over 700 million times. Recently they also started moving into the K-12 space.

All of these courses are free for anyone to take. So how do colleges, that charge steep tuitions, compete with “free”?

As the OpenCourseware Movement has shown us, courses are becoming a commodity. Teachers only need to teach once, record it, and then move on to another topic or something else.

In the middle of all this we are transitioning from a teaching model to a learning model. Why do we need to wait for a teacher to take the stage in the front of the room when we can learn whatever is of interest to us at any moment?

Teaching requires experts. Learning only requires coaches.

With all of the assets in place, we are moving quickly into the new frontier of a teacherless education system.

Jobs Going Away

• Teachers.
• Trainers.
• Professors.

New Jobs Created

• Coaches.
• Course designers.
• Learning camps.

Prototype of a 40′ X 40′ 3D Printer capable of printing a small building

4.) 3D Printers

Unlike a machine shop that starts with a large piece of metal and carves away everything but the final piece, 3D printing is an object creation technology where the shape of the objects are formed through a process of building up layers of material until all of the details are in place.

The first commercial 3D printer was invented by Charles Hull in 1984, based on a technique called stereolithography.

Three-dimensional printing makes it as cheap to create single items as it is to produce thousands of items and thus undermines economies of scale. It may have as profound an impact on the world as the coming of the factory did during the Henry Ford era.

3D Printed Dress

3D Printed Shoes

Jobs Going Away

• If we can print our own clothes and they fit perfectly, clothing manufacturers and clothing retailers will quickly go away.
• Similarly, if we can print our own shoes, shoe manufacturers and shoe retailers will cease to be relevant.
• If we can print construction material, the lumber, rock, drywall, shingle, concrete, and various other construction industries will go away.

New Jobs Created

• 3D printer design, engineering, and manufacturing
• 3D printer repairmen will be in big demand
• Product designers, stylists, and engineers for 3D printers
• 3D printer ‘Ink’ sellers

Boston Dynamics’ BigDog

5.) Bots

We are moving quickly past the robotic vacuum cleaner stage to far more complex machines.

The BigDog robot, shown above, is among the most impressive and potentially useful for troops in the immediate future–it’s being developed to act as an autonomous drone assistant that’ll carry gear for soldiers across rough battlefield terrain.

Nearly every physical task can conceivably be done by a robot at some point in the future.

Jobs Going Away

• Fishing bots will replace fishermen.
• Mining bots will replace miners.
• Ag bots will replace farmers.
• Inspection bots will replace human inspectors.
• Warrior drones will replace soldiers.
• Robots can pick up building material coming out of the 3D printer and begin building a house with it.

New Jobs Created

• Robot designers, engineers, repairmen.
• Robot dispatchers.
• Robot therapists.
• Robot trainers.
• Robot fashion designers.

Final Thoughts

In these five industries alone there will be hundreds of millions of jobs disappearing. But many other sectors will also be affected.

Certainly there’s a downside to all this. The more technology we rely on, the more breaking points we’ll have in our lives.

Driverless drones can deliver people. These people can deliver bombs or illicit drugs as easily as pizza.

Robots that can build building can also destroy buildings.

All of this technology could make us fat, dumb, and lazy, and the problems we thought we were solving become far more complicated.

We are not well-equipped culturally and emotionally to have this much technology entering into our lives. There will be backlashes, “destroy the robots” or “damn the driverless car” campaigns with proposed legislation attempting to limit its influence.

At the same time, most of the jobs getting displaced are the low-level, low-skilled labor positions. Our challenge will be to upgrade our workforce to match the labor demand of the coming era. Although it won’t be an easy road ahead it will be one filled with amazing technology and huge potentials as the industries shift.

By Futurist Thomas Frey

Author of “Communicating with the Future” - the book that changes everything.

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I believe that some of these extinctions and geneses will occur at very different times, and I hesitate to speculate on which ones will occur in order. But I do think that all of these changes in the fundamental structure of the employment market and the nature of the workforce are going to be life-changing for all of us.

Further, I believe that the vanishing jobs are going to leave a vacuum in their wake, for some time before those qualified to step into the newly-created positions will be able to counterbalance this unemployment by techno-extinction. Career counselors, students, Human Resource professionals, management recruiters and all individuals involved in business planning (as well as those involved in career advice) must incorporate these coming changes into their projected resource needs and staffing requirements.

Not only will some careers disappear only to be overtaken by brand new ones, but entire industries and business will face extinction if they cannot anticipate, adjust and evolve proactively.

Douglas E. Castle for  The Global Futurist Blog





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Bioenergetics - The Ultimate Power Source

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Living organisms consume food (as fuel) and carry on with the various tasks of living. Each living creature is a consumer and creator of bioenergy. Plant and animal bioenergetics is being looked at very seriously as a potentially limitless source of power for virtually every conceivable use. The difference between input (food) and output (work) is the magical key.

The issues surrounding its inevitable development and deployment include:

1) Obtaining it efficiently;

2) Transporting (or 'conducting') it efficiently;

3) Storing it for future use with a minimal loss or decay factor;

4) Converting it from one form to another as may be required in the circumstances;

5) Multiplying its efficiency in terms of input versus output, and perpetuating the production cycle.

Regarding this latter issue, picture the example of trying to get a hamster to cycle a wheel to the greatest number of revolutions per minute while feeding it the least expensive source of nutrition.

If you combine living creatures which are highly energetic little machines (such as microbes or even viruses) which consume waste products or pollutants for the purpose harnessing a source of energy, several perplexing problems facing us in the present and in the future could theoretically be solved (or at least mitigated) simultaneously.

The utopian picture of bioenergetics would be harnessing energetic output to produce electricity from a species of microbes which consumes oil spills and excretes (as a byproduct of the energy production process) harmless waste products that are readily biodegradable, or perhaps even useful.

I strongly believe that enterprises which invest in bioenergetics in any aspect will begin to make an appearance late in 2012 (principally as academically-sponsored start-ups and ventures), and will be very valuable in terms of profit potential and stock pricing potential by the third quarter of 2015.

The following article excerpt comes to us courtesy of SmartPlanet:

Using everyday microbes to power electrical devices

A grad student is improving technology that creates electrical fuel cells from everyday microbes like yeast. Read the full story

This field is fashionably green, ecologically unassailable, and addresses an almost unimaginably enormous demand while simultaneously solving some very serious problems. It has the ancillary sociological benefit of bringing together a merger of interests between naturalists and preservationists with the lust for innovation and profits of entrepreneurs and capital providers. Perhaps some venture capitalists, accredited angel investors and crowdfunding organizers are listening.

I would certainly hope so.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist



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Dear Friends:

"These are very dangerous times."

How many bleary-eyed street-corner philosophers have you heard making this profound observation regarding the Human Condition ? (which, incidentally, sounds like an incurable disease -- picture it, if only for a moment: the court systems of our increasingly litigious world, as clogged as a long-haul trucker's arteries, with class-action lawsuits against an endless roster of plaintiffs liable for their failure to change Human Nature -- makes you grin, doesn't it?).



The Human Condition remains unchanged, principally due to the persistence of Human Nature, which not only resists change, but has a propensity to avoid it at all possible costs. We generally are happier to dance with "the devil we know" than to go out on a blind date with the unfamiliar. In the paradox of our species, we all seem to understand that all potential gains involve the taking of risks, yet we are generally content to let others take those risks while we hide in our caves and await word of the outcome through the all-pervasive and sensationalistic media.



This risk-aversion is generally a protective instinct, but it becomes an impediment to survival when the circumstances about us change, and new behaviors are called for, while the older, instinctually-entrenched ones become nothing more than enslaving inertia. We stand in utter disbelief, and complain bitterly about situations, and yet we do nothing to change them...that is unless:



1. We are actually starving, homeless, or threatened with danger that is perceived as imminent (i.e., a mean-looking fellow with an unfashionable stocking cap and a sawed-off shotgun tells us that if we do not open the store safe, he will kill our children while we are forced to watch);



2. We can take some action without being identified with its outcome, thereby avoiding persecution, prosecution and other -ution suffixed words relating to "consequences". ***I have avoided mentioning Elliot Spitzer's name here, as that would be bad form and perceived by many of my colleagues as a "cheap shot."



3. We perceive that we have nothing to lose, so we just gamble. Gambling is the contrarian component which is hard-wired into the otherwise conservative and hyper-protective mechanics of Human behavior. If I have $10 left in my bank account, it is worth so little that I would rather buy a lottery ticket or make a sports bet than save it and enjoy the exponential growth effect of compound interest (albeit posthumously).



BUT I HAVE DIGRESSED....



Speaking Globally, watch for the following trends and tendencies in the near-term (1 to 3 years):

A NEW FORM OF LIQUIDITY CRISIS

There will be four major "liquidity" crises, each one brought about by a different type of causal agent.

The U.S. Dollar will plummet against other currencies due to a combination of 1) weakness against the Euro and other world currencies; 2) a rejection of the U.S. Dollar by certain industries as a standard means of acceptable payment; 3) the international credit standing of a United States which is ensnared in accumulating debt -- debt which can only be paid by the printing of reams of scrip (e.g. unsupported paper or electronic currency), or through untenable tarrifs and taxation -- and cannot possibly generate the income or other value to cover debt service payment, let alone actual debt retirement.

There will be an increasing shortage (due to a combination of Global Warming, pollution and inadequate or expensive purification technologies) of safe, pure drinking water worldwide.

There will be an increasing shortage of oil throughout the non oil-producing nations brought about through production decreases by OPEC and Company (to support inflated prices), hoarding of emergency reserves, and an tentative, though appreciably increased, utilization of hybrid and non-fossil fuel-powered vehicles, equipment, and the like.

There will be a worldwide decrease in available liquidity in "meaningful and credible" currencies as a flight to commodities increases and acquires momentum. Simply put, picture masses of concerned persons trading away their paper currencies and financial instruments for tangible commodities, such as precious metals and a host of medieval favorities, plus some newer ones like thorium and the Rare Earth Elements, which have unclear "intrinsic" value at the moment, but have unmistakable practical value as important depletable resources necessary to atomic energy production and many technologies.



TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

By "technological convergence" I mean that different types of communications devices will soon be technologically sophisticated enough that each type can send and receive messages and media from eachother. Simplistically, picture: your daughter's iPod talking your son's Blackberry; watching movies on your Treo or PDA; and. recording news programs (and "Friends" reruns) on your cellphone. All of these devices will become interconvertible -- a great boon to communications, coupled with a great dependency and vulnerabily. Science teaches us (if we bother to go to school that day) that more complex systems are most easily upset by ambitious viruses. Don't say that I didn't warn you. Somes themes for the next presidential administration to ponder:

ALTERNATIVES FOR EVERYTHING

HEALTH CRISES

LEADERSHIP CRISES

ILLITERACY ON THE RISE

COMMODITIES OVER PAPER

THE MIDDLE CLASS FALLS OUT

WE SIGNED WHAT TREATY? WHO AUTHORIZED THIS?

These will be very challenging times for traditionalists and the blindly faithful. They will be superb times for 1) activism; 2) neo-fuedalism: and 3) entrepreneurial individuals who are communications-savvy.

I can hardly wait. As for those of you who are not reading this article (it's always funny to address the audience that isn't there...it's a curious paradox, but very politically expedient)...Bend Over.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

For THE GLOBAL FUTURIST