ORDER OUT OF CHAOS - A Socio-Economic and Behavioral Commentary

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Dear Friends:

My question for my colleagues is a simple one: Are you motivated more by FEAR, or by the OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN? Be fully honest. Christine West's Seminar: http://ping.fm/SH3ov . My personal commentary follows.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

ORDER OUT OF CHAOS - A SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND BEHAVIORAL COMMENTARY

Throughout the United States and the rest of the world that surrounds us (I sound a bit paranoic, don't I?), people are frightened. The economy is in a contractionary state; many formidable and once-credible "bedrock" institutions have failed amid allegations of major misjudgments and corruption -- and the distinctions between the public and private sectors are becoming increasingly unclear. People tend to be frightened by rapid change and general uncertainty.

Panic makes for some terrible decisionmaking, while maintaining a calm and analytic state of mind while those about us are in a state of irrationality can reveal some contrarian investment bargains. While fear has locked many investors and businesses into a paralytic holding pattern, a distinct minority, virtually a special social class, is quietly buying up controlling stakes and future monopolistic positions in a variety of industries, companies and commodities. This minority, for the most part, is comprised of very wealthy, privileged families...families who have prospered through generation after generation, almost regardless of the political or economic environment. We will refer to them (for the purposes or simplicity) as dynastic families. Their blueblooded names are familiar to many of the rest of us, and they have held tremendous power for quite some time -- centuries, in fact.

I am betting that amongst the pedestrian, "common" population, fear is a far superior motivating force than the promise of an opportunity for gain. I believe that we travel long, circuitous routes in order to avoid confrontation, pain and loss, while we seldom leave the living room couch for an opportunity, which might require effort on our part. Inertia, indolence and a lack of ambition combine to work against the potential efficacy of positive reinforcement, while fear actually creates a physiological reaction (i.e., the secretion of adrenalin, cortisol, etcetera) which actually produces the means for rapid movement in a "fight or flight" response.

The endorphin "rush" produced by the mind's complex neurochemical apparatus is, in contrast, usually much slower to gain a foothold and much weaker in terms of its sway over our responses to the environment and circumstances. It is interesting to note that fear is regarded by many as a visceral reflex, while ambition, and the excitement that accompanies it, is seen to be more of a cerebral, learned action.

Is it possible that the actual physiology of the members of these dynastic families has changed, through some sort of evolutionary genetic mechanism, over the generations? Is it possible that the progenitors who spawned these imperial families started out with an anomalous physiological/ psychological makeup which permitted them to seize ever-increasing stakes of wealth and power while others panicked and fled? Is there a "contrarian gene" that makes these people different, or is it a function of a learned response which is handed down from each generation to its successor?

These few have triumphed through virtually every tragic chapter in the course of Humanity's erratic, ungainly evolution. I am fascinated by the fact that such a small group of persons can continually control the bulk of the world's resources.

These dynastic families all have one thing in common -- they are not motivated by fear.

I am equally fascinated by my almost dull, ho-hum, all-too-calm expectation, in my dual roles as a Strategic Planner and a Futurist, that these dynastic families will become even wealthier and more powerful as a result of the severe economic recession that has befallen us; and that they will emerge, as they always have, with an even greater percentage of the world's wealth when the current crisis has ended. The irony is that these families always benefit by their uncanny ability to maintain their cool in the midst of the confusion -- to make order (and money) out of chaos. This observation has made conspiracy theorists out of many of us. We are indeed, by and large, a fearful group of primitives running from the lightning, while these others are out flying their kites.
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A MESSAGE OF HOPE AND OPPORTUNITY

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Dear Friends:

Please take a moment to read an important message of hope and opportunity by clicking on http://humanitasmaximus.blogspot.com/2008/12/doors-close-but-new-ones-open.html .

I promise that you will not be disappointed.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle




KEYWORDS, TERMS AND ORGANIZATIONS:

globalism, CFR, NGO, UN, WTO, IMF, central bank, outsourcing, offshoring, capital markets, import, export, international trade, strategic alliances, e-commerce, entrepreneurship, social networking, banking, finance, trade, ventures, business, securities, stock exchanges, indexes, futurism, trends, citizen ambassadorship, enterprise, capitalism, international politics, commodities, prime rate, LIBOR, foreign currencies, foreign exchange, blogs, blogging, bloggers, aol, google, yahoo, msn, AP, news, media alerts, world government, world governments, international affairs, treaties, tariffs, trade restrictions, marketing, advertising, business development, arbitrage, obtaining capital, promotion, publicity, EU, NATO, military affairs, government regulation, trade restrictions, liquidity crisis, business opportunities, web-based businesses, communication, communications, technology, intelligence, embassies, consulates, business resources, Douglas Castle,The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, international politics, elections, time management, cyberspace, AI, energy, industry, productivity, Mixx, Digg, Technorati, Sphere, Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, LinkedIn, advertising, economics, strategy, management, cooperation, widgets, blidgets, links, incoterms, CCH, UCC, freight forwarding, custom house brokers, diversity, employment, culture, micro-loans, technological convergence, trends, financial planning, FOREX, futures, stock index, inflation, recession, sub-contracting, Department of Commerce, CIOF, the next generation, amnesty, humanitarianism, foreign aid, philanthropy, charity, LinkedIn, singularity, transportation, IT, intelligence, complexity theory, energy sources, shortages, climatic change, pop-culture, survivalism, mergers and acquisitions...

THE KING IS DEAD- LONG LIVE THE KING

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WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES

Dear Friends:

The title of this post should bring a smile to the wrinkled face of every Egyptologist or student of secret societies. Throughout the world, and principally in the United States, we are experiencing a radical shakeup in the Citizenry's faith and trust in the Government, and its duly-chartered and licensed institutions.
The scenario is disillusioning enough to bring even some of the most narcoleptic proponents of begrudging apathy to a state of alarm, consternation and re-evaluation. When you wake up to discover that your paradise is actually a prison, and that your protectors are truly your captors, the psychological ramifications are frightening.

The administration in power in The United States, accompanied by a dwindling number of disenheartened allies, is fighting an endless "war" against terrorism, which has greatly increased instability in the Middle east; alienated many western allies and trading partners; put the country into massive debt, much of which is held by other nations (e.g., as creditors); caused a precipitous decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar and massive inflation, principally driven by unprecedented oil-price increases and resultant cost-push increases in all transportation-dependent services and products; precipitated steepening unemployment and declining output (largely due to outsourcing, offshoring and a decline in domestic initiative and entrepreneurship), and the virtual elimination of the "checks and balances" prescribed by the U.S. Constitution (as well as the concept of "due process under the law," which no court has the testicular fortitude to opine upon, let alone rule upon), which is largely disregarded by the occupants of the White House for cited reasons of "executive privilege," "secrecy in the interests of National Security," and "special wartime powers," none of which are apparently subject to any domestic or international laws or codes of justice, ethics, honor or even tradition... and ---

1. The fall of many big-name investment banking firms and commercial banks due to their overextension of readily-available credit, their propensity to gamble for short-term gain, a lack of impartial oversight and accountability, and an incredible failure to prudently diversify investments and avoid large concentrations in any one customer or investment product -- this is Finance 101...Mr. Lehmann is crying out from the grave. As for Keynes, he stopped talking long ago (as some dead people tend to do);


2. Growing concerns about climatic change (whether real or imagined), and its ramifications;


3. Shocking declines in the quality of life, availability of affordable healthcare (and medical insurance), and fitness of the population (I could point to the obesity statistics);


4. Radically changing demographics, and the non-integration and assimilation of most newer immigrants into what used to be "mainsteam American culture." There is an increase in the Tower Of Babel Effect -- the formation of cultural enclaves, barrios, ghettos and other inwardly-oriented protective cultural preservation configurations. We are not a melting pot...we are a camprground for disparate groups who are more co-inhabitants than neighbors. While this effect seems most pronounced in the United States, it is proliferating throughout Europe, as well.

There is a great deal of apocalyptic writing, speaking and thinking. Read the most recent novels by Stephen King, Dean Koontz and others. The motion picture industry is turning out more films about the end of the world than ever before. It is a popular theme, but the crowds do not leave the theatres smiling. The population is squaring off, albeit meekly and slowly, against the government and large institutions. "Big government" and "big business" are being demonized.

During these next five years, watch for the following trends and tendencies, bearing in mind that preparation can be the difference between being hit by a car or getting a lift in one:

1. Acceleration in the proliferation of ecommerce, and a reduction in the prevalence of paper media. As security measures improve on e-commerce websites, and as transportation becomes increasingly expensive, a greater percentage of the world's population will conduct a greater percentage of their purchases online;
2. Personal service, and even telephonic helpdesk services will become increasingly scarce, minimizing the interpersonal contact between consumers and service providers. The availability and quality of all services will continue to decline. Those exceptional sellers and providers of services to the wealthiest minority of consumers will provide interpersonal service, but only at a tremendous price premium;
3. Wires will rapidly begin to disappear as all communications equipment becomes wireless. Newer homes will be built with fewer electric outlets;
4. In several of the G-8 Nations (including the United States), paper currency and coin will vanish, as all payment and transfers will be done by institutional wire or by credit or debit card. Taxes will be estimated and extracted directly by governments from bank accounts, and the burden will be entirely on the individual to contest and disprove the government's "tax estimates" -- this process will be as discouraging as it is difficult;
5. Most of the United States' wealthiest and brightest individuals will live abroad as expatriates, or will apply for alternative citizenship;
6. Fossil fuels will give way to nuclear energy, most likely provided by thorium-based reactors, the first of which will be built in the G-8 nations within the next three years;
7. Executives will opt for private jet charter or lease services as commercial airlines in the G-8 nations continue to decline in their ability to service demand;
8. In the United States, immigrants (both legal and illegal) who are not fluent in English will outnumber English-speaking residents and citizens;
9. Communication media will be more efficient than ever before, but the willingness to take maximum advantage by speaking the same language will continue to steeply decline;
10. There will be a virtual elimination of the middle class throughout virtually every industrialized nation. The bluebloods will continue onward in indifference, some entrepreneurs and professionals will remain at the lower strata of the wealthy class, but the balance of the populace (probably more than 75% by census) will be desperately struggling to survive.

Students of history, as well as some uniquely visionary thinkers will see that we are approaching the end of an era. This invariably means confusion, violence, rampant distrust, re-grouping (as in medieval fiefdoms), and survival of only the extremely wealthy or the very, very enterprising.

If you are reading this (which you are), devise your plans based upon the assumption that you have between three to five years at maximum to become very rich or very clever. I would recommend both. And while you are in the process of building these fiscal and intellectual munitions, try to maintain a low profile so you don't get sidetracked by government investigations or an indeterminate prison sentence. Any actions taken in disagreement with the persons in power are not protected by either civil rights, constitutionally protected rights, or human rights.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle