Cash As A Commodity: MiniTrend

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When banks hold onto cash and the amount of liquidity in the economy-at-large rapidly dries up, companies historically have responded reactively (impulsively) in the short run (starting six months after a media-magnified cash crunch and continuing into a period where indications in the economy point very strongly toward general inflation. Companies hoard troves of cash out of an amalgam of fear and greed -- fear that no further credit will be available to fuel expansion or to address unexpected needs, and greed -- where cash is scarce, and asset values (exclusive of exchange-traded securities) are declining either because of a shortage of viable buyers or customers, or because of anticipated worsening in the economy.

The rating of the United States as a sovereign credit may have been downgraded, and many are speaking about the decline of the value of the dollar vis-a-vis other currencies, but this is of little real consequence within the community of dollar holders with an eye for bargains and arbitrage. You need ready cash in order to be able to secure distress-sale bargains.

Viewing cash as a commodity, which so many fail to do, makes it increase in value when it is in shorter supply, and when it can be used to purchase even more than before in terms of larger-ticket income-producing assets, equipment, et cetera.

It might be well worth your while to have a look at an article just posted on The InfoSphere Business Alerts! Blog. The article can be accessed at http://infospherebusinessalerts.blogspot.com/2011/10/companies-hoarding-cash-no-self-banking.html.

The conventional wisdom would have us believe that corporations (as investing entities) would be fleeing dollars as a store of value, and running to invest in gold, or oil stocks, or FOREX. The fact of the matter is that Corporate America knows that large reserves of cash are wonderful to have in an economy where prices of many assets, supplies and resources are temporarily depressed. Expect corporations and large organizations, both US and international, to be piling up cash reserves until the prices of assets seem to have truly "bottomed out," or after the first few months (three to six months, generally speaking) of reports of rising general inflation.

Were I to hazard a guess, I believe that corporate self-banking, especially in US Dollars, will continue for at least another year to a year-and-a-half, and that reasonably-profitable small- to mid-sized companies are already starting to follow the example of the cash collectors...companies like Apple, for example.

Ironically, this self-banking in response to the contractionary credit environment is actually helping to support and bolster the value of the US Dollar. And that, friends, readers and colleagues, is not necessarily a bad thing.

Douglas E Castle [http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com]
InfoSphere Business Alerts And Intelligence [http://InfoSphereBusinessAlerts]





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PLEASE, SIR.....I'D LIKE ANOTHER.

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Dear Friends:

"These are very dangerous times."

How many bleary-eyed street-corner philosophers have you heard making this profound observation regarding the Human Condition ? (which, incidentally, sounds like an incurable disease -- picture it, if only for a moment: the court systems of our increasingly litigious world, as clogged as a long-haul trucker's arteries, with class-action lawsuits against an endless roster of plaintiffs liable for their failure to change Human Nature -- makes you grin, doesn't it?).



The Human Condition remains unchanged, principally due to the persistence of Human Nature, which not only resists change, but has a propensity to avoid it at all possible costs. We generally are happier to dance with "the devil we know" than to go out on a blind date with the unfamiliar. In the paradox of our species, we all seem to understand that all potential gains involve the taking of risks, yet we are generally content to let others take those risks while we hide in our caves and await word of the outcome through the all-pervasive and sensationalistic media.



This risk-aversion is generally a protective instinct, but it becomes an impediment to survival when the circumstances about us change, and new behaviors are called for, while the older, instinctually-entrenched ones become nothing more than enslaving inertia. We stand in utter disbelief, and complain bitterly about situations, and yet we do nothing to change them...that is unless:



1. We are actually starving, homeless, or threatened with danger that is perceived as imminent (i.e., a mean-looking fellow with an unfashionable stocking cap and a sawed-off shotgun tells us that if we do not open the store safe, he will kill our children while we are forced to watch);



2. We can take some action without being identified with its outcome, thereby avoiding persecution, prosecution and other -ution suffixed words relating to "consequences". ***I have avoided mentioning Elliot Spitzer's name here, as that would be bad form and perceived by many of my colleagues as a "cheap shot."



3. We perceive that we have nothing to lose, so we just gamble. Gambling is the contrarian component which is hard-wired into the otherwise conservative and hyper-protective mechanics of Human behavior. If I have $10 left in my bank account, it is worth so little that I would rather buy a lottery ticket or make a sports bet than save it and enjoy the exponential growth effect of compound interest (albeit posthumously).



BUT I HAVE DIGRESSED....



Speaking Globally, watch for the following trends and tendencies in the near-term (1 to 3 years):

A NEW FORM OF LIQUIDITY CRISIS

There will be four major "liquidity" crises, each one brought about by a different type of causal agent.

The U.S. Dollar will plummet against other currencies due to a combination of 1) weakness against the Euro and other world currencies; 2) a rejection of the U.S. Dollar by certain industries as a standard means of acceptable payment; 3) the international credit standing of a United States which is ensnared in accumulating debt -- debt which can only be paid by the printing of reams of scrip (e.g. unsupported paper or electronic currency), or through untenable tarrifs and taxation -- and cannot possibly generate the income or other value to cover debt service payment, let alone actual debt retirement.

There will be an increasing shortage (due to a combination of Global Warming, pollution and inadequate or expensive purification technologies) of safe, pure drinking water worldwide.

There will be an increasing shortage of oil throughout the non oil-producing nations brought about through production decreases by OPEC and Company (to support inflated prices), hoarding of emergency reserves, and an tentative, though appreciably increased, utilization of hybrid and non-fossil fuel-powered vehicles, equipment, and the like.

There will be a worldwide decrease in available liquidity in "meaningful and credible" currencies as a flight to commodities increases and acquires momentum. Simply put, picture masses of concerned persons trading away their paper currencies and financial instruments for tangible commodities, such as precious metals and a host of medieval favorities, plus some newer ones like thorium and the Rare Earth Elements, which have unclear "intrinsic" value at the moment, but have unmistakable practical value as important depletable resources necessary to atomic energy production and many technologies.



TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

By "technological convergence" I mean that different types of communications devices will soon be technologically sophisticated enough that each type can send and receive messages and media from eachother. Simplistically, picture: your daughter's iPod talking your son's Blackberry; watching movies on your Treo or PDA; and. recording news programs (and "Friends" reruns) on your cellphone. All of these devices will become interconvertible -- a great boon to communications, coupled with a great dependency and vulnerabily. Science teaches us (if we bother to go to school that day) that more complex systems are most easily upset by ambitious viruses. Don't say that I didn't warn you. Somes themes for the next presidential administration to ponder:

ALTERNATIVES FOR EVERYTHING

HEALTH CRISES

LEADERSHIP CRISES

ILLITERACY ON THE RISE

COMMODITIES OVER PAPER

THE MIDDLE CLASS FALLS OUT

WE SIGNED WHAT TREATY? WHO AUTHORIZED THIS?

These will be very challenging times for traditionalists and the blindly faithful. They will be superb times for 1) activism; 2) neo-fuedalism: and 3) entrepreneurial individuals who are communications-savvy.

I can hardly wait. As for those of you who are not reading this article (it's always funny to address the audience that isn't there...it's a curious paradox, but very politically expedient)...Bend Over.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

For THE GLOBAL FUTURIST