The Next 7 Years: 2010 - 2017

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The Next 7 Years: 2010 - 2017

Dear Readers:

I would like to take this opportunity to wish each and all of you a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year -- a year filled with epiphanies, satori moments, recovering investments, renewed faith and energy, and love. That was the friendly component of this bulletin, and I am glad to offer it. What follows is about trends to watch during these next seven years. At the very end, you'll find an embedded video that has absolutely no relevence whatsoever to the subject matter of this brief article.

The years 2010 - 2017 will be pivotal, and will be marked by the tempest and challenge of change and an altered perception of reality. Unlike Nostradamus, I will not present you with mysterious quatrains. I do not possess the gift of clairvoyance -- but I do have the ability, as you all do, to connect the dots and to draw a line. This is more extrapolation than 'second sight'. But then, I have come to believe that what we term "supernatural" is more often than not merely the temporarily unexplainable.

Succinctly:

1. The "invisible" longer-term health hazards associated with wireless communications (electromagnetic radiation, radio waves, microwaves), as well as those associated with proximity to electronic cabling and utility wiring will be revealed to the public, and a number of opportunistic class action lawsuits (in the true John Grisham fashion) will emerge from the ether faster than you can say 'mesothelioma' or 'Konigsberg and O'Shaunessy, attorneys fighting for your rights'. Companies involved in the development and sale of radiation shielding for homes and workplaces will begin to thrive, and the telecomm industry lobby will not be able to keep the legislature from enacting all manner of safety laws. You can anticipate that the EPA and other government agencies will increase in their influence and prominence;

2. Cloud computing will begin to displace sales of many types of "utility software" and hardware. Firms like Microsoft will be beseiged and have their sales volume eroded by fragmented entrepreneurial competition from cloud computing service providers and innovators. It may well be time to Google "Cloud Computing";

3. There will be an increase in both the number and types of electronic devices being surgically implanted (like the pacemaker, for example) in the Human population to assist the heart and other organs with their functioning;

4. Obesity will continue to affect an increasing percentage of the population, but there will be tremendous resistance to addressing the issue as a full-blown (no pun intended) pandemic because of the widely and deeply-held perception that all obesity is associated with gluttony, laziness and other "controllable" character flaws. It will continue to be in the headlines, but it won't warrant the wearing of wristbands and ribbons like the ones associated with breast cancer and some of the other "real" and better-established diseases which are better entrenched in the media;

5. China will be the most economically and politically influential sovereign power in the world;

6. The severity and fatality of many diseases and chronic conditions currently treated with medication or transplantation will be dramatically reduced with genetic engineering, stem cell-based organ regeneration, and some rudimentary applications of nanotechnology. A number of physiologically-caused emotional illness will be treated or become treatable in this manner as well, and the companies which manufacture anti-depressant drugs (especially SSRIs and SNRIs) will be hurt by declining sales of these staples and by the inevitable rash of attorney-driven class-action lawsuits which will spread like a psoriatic inflammation;

7. Gold, in both its physical form, and in the form of claims secured, backed or collateralized by the metal will become an increasingly large percentage of investment portfolios and as a store of value due to increased fears about the volatility and intrinsic value of other investments as the consumer world shakily emerges from the recession sometime in 2012, and begins to reinvigorate itself in a classic self-fulfilling prophesy...except there will not be as much rejoicing as there will be caution and a few uears of attempted moderation;

8. Both large corporate and governmental excesses will continue, unchecked and essentially unchanged. The public's memory is short, and the immediate monetary gratification of the porkers in the executive suites and boardrooms will far overshadow any pangs of conscience or concerns about the longer-term effects of these unproductive expenditures at the expense of stakeholders and the tax-paying public;

9. The "Green Movement" will continue to gain momentum, legislative and public support, financial backing, media coverage and lobbying strength;

10. There will be a worldwide resurgence of interest in the occult, astrologically-based predictive systems, psychic phenomena and in dimensions theorized, but as yet, unproven;

11. There will be an increasing acceptance of the notion of Internationalism and transnational entities (mostly conglomerates and diverse combinations) will increase in size and number.

12. The demography of the industrialized nations (especially that of the United States) will change radically as more immigration into these countries takes place to absorb the capacity and demand left unaddressed by the many skilled workers, businesspeople and professionals who will be leaving these floundering giants to find employment in Asia and South America.

13. People throughout the English-speaking world will still be superstitious about the number thirteen (13). I am not certain how it is spelled, but I believe that this particular superstition-based fear is occasionally referred to as tristadecaphobia. There are times when I wish I hadn't poisoned my editor (kidding).

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle [ http://aboutdouglascastle.blogspot.com/ ]

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As an added bonus, I have embedded a YouTube Video Player with a performance of Sofrito (O Mi Shango) by Mongo Santamaria. If the video does not appear, just click this link to receive the same thrill. He is one of the understated ambassadors of Afro-Cuban (Latin Jazz) music from Havana to the United States. Listen and become entranced:

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THE RECONFIGURATION OF THE CORPORATE STRUCTURE

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Dear Friends and Fellow Futurists:

Greetings, one and all, and please accept my sincere best wishes for a happy, healthy, prosperous and productive 2009...a year filled with learning, barrier-breaking, renewed self-confidence and self-reliance...a year filled with new friendships and mutually-productive and enjoyable business relationships.

I also offer you a brief reminder to take some time, as frequently as possible, to review the links to other sites of interest which I have placed on this blog for your information and enjoyment. There is a great deal of intense thought (as well as progress!) going on in virtually every quarter of futurism, from Artificial Intelligence to Medicine. My fellow writers and visionaries have been keeping extraordinarily busy -- invest some clicking activity in seeing what they have been doing.

Now, to my subject:

The current economic environment is forcing the issue of a reconfiguration of the conventional corporate structure. Blindly downsizing (a common, instinctual reaction to an anticipated decline in demand) is simply not the answer. As discussed in previous posts, "cutting costs" which are unproductive is a prudent tactic, but the tendency is to cut productive costs (e.g., those which are necessary to sustain the business and to generate revenues) as part of the bargain. In a season of economic panic, business owners and executives, in reacting to the various pressures which crush them, tend to attempt to do a microsurgeon's job with a machete -- blindfolded. A great percentage of these life-saving operations are ultimately terminal.

Every business entity has revenue-producing components and revenue-consuming components, just as every business has fixed cost components and variable cost components. The word "component" is really the key. Businesses are very much like multicellular creatures, and each component is a cell. Each cost is a component of the business.

To restructure business, an increasing number of visionary business leaders are going to start evaluating their businesses component by component, instead of as "take it or leave it" creations which are mired in traditions and policies that may have become obsolete, irrelevant or destructive.

The new methodology will be to break each business up into its multiple essential components, and to evaluate each individual one carefully. After this analysis is complete, some components will be kept, some modified, and some eliminated. Then, the business will be re-synthesized as a functioning whole. This is akin to the notion of "zero-based budgeting" and requires intellectualism rather than barbarianism. It requires precision and care. It requires a new, smarter, more scientific than reactive mindset. In brutally direct terms, it may permit you to let your full-time corporate administrator go (who currently costs you, with all benefits and employment-related expenses, $65,000.00 per year, and who is only being utilized one day per week on average) with a part-time consultant who costs $1,500.00 per month, or $18,000.00 per year, for a savings of $47,000.00 per year. Multiply this savings by a vast number of defined positions and the savings can mean the difference between profitability and extinction.

A business viewed as a multicellular organism can be restructured with a minimum of trial and error required. Every individual component can be evaluated in order to make subtle and surgical improvements rather than sweeping changes which might have unintended negative effects. Every business is modular, and modules can be eliminated, refitted or replaced as required. In fact, the rise of outsourcing, offshoring and subcontracting during this past decade gives further evidence to support this fact.

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If you had hired a full-time employee in 2006 (in the United States, and on the average), you would not only be paying for that individual's salary, but you would also be paying taxes, compliance costs, healthcare, pension, and other benefits equal to roughly 33% of that employee's base compensation. If you chose to terminate that employee, you might have been socked with legal fees. If you didn't hire your personnel along the legally mandated "equal opportunity" employment racial, ethnic, sexual orientation, and other "lifestyle" guidelines, you would have been socked with legal costs and regulatory action. The larger your company, the less choice you were permitted to exercise in terms of hiring based upon merit, and the less flexibility you had with respect to terminating poorly-performing employees.

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In this new and challenging (a euphemism for "crappy") economy, you actually have some options. Ironically, a number of them actually provide benefits to your home country's economy.

When reviewing each module, determine 1) if it is necessary; 2) how much of it - in terms of person/hours per week - you will truly need; and, 3) if it can be addressed by contactors or consultants who are technically proficient enough to minimize any investment in on-the-job training and supervision. After having done this, you will be able to make serious budget and personnel cuts, and convert many of your fixed costs into either lower fixed costs, or into variable costs.

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If you are moved by patriotism, you can retain consultants (as non-employees) to cover those modules which do not require full-time employees. You have flexibility in the tasks that you can assign to them, and flexibility in both the hours purchased and the length of the contract. If you are, for example, a U.S.-based organization, you can retain the limited services of U.S.-domiciled consultants. You needn't outsource overseas. You are, in effect, replanting the seeds of full employment where you have had to cut jobs. And, your business can continue to survive and thrive with a lower fixed cost profile and greatly enhanced operating flexibility.

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There are a number of services which provide listing opportunities for freelance consultants, and/or employers looking for specific skills to apply toward specific projects. These services, like guru.com, freelancers.com, and others do have some shortcomings, but if you invest the time searching and interviewing, you may ultimately fill all of your modules. The drawbacks are the time required, the likelihood of a poor "match" and that there is no ongoing feedback, support or quality assurance mechanism. Many of these services tend to be project-oriented, instead of function-oriented. They are not optimized toward replacing a full-time employee with a limited-time contractor on an ongoing basis.

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A better approach, in my opinion, is the one taken by Bruce Newman of The Productivity Institute, LLC. (http://www.prodinst.com/) . His firm (which he calls "PI") actually maintains a stable of consultants in a variety of specialties, including, but not limited to, IT, administration, CRM, accounting, telephony and a host of others which relate to marketing, advertising, public relations, and other non-computer specialties. PI rates the consultants in each class using an ongoing rating algorithm and continuous quality control monitoring system, and provides client organizations with a short list of five rated consulting firms in any given modular specialization. This eliminates time, trial and error, and cost. What is every bit as important, is that PI will constantly communicate with each client organization for feedback on the consultant placed there. Consultants pay to be rated and listed, and client companies pay a minimal fee in order to keep PI "on tap." The advantage here is that once PI has developed a clear understanding of what its clients truly require (not only technically, but in terms of interpersonal, corporate culture and qualitative factors), it can be an even more potent resource for supporting the client company's ongoing needs.

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In every case, the victors who will triumph through the economic upheaval currently taking place, are those who are willing to look at their companies as multicellular, modular organisms, and to reconfigure their structures and policies to accommodate this new paradigm.

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Faithfully,

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Douglas Castle

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KEYWORDS, TERMS AND ORGANIZATIONS:

globalism, CFR, NGO, UN, WTO, IMF, central bank, outsourcing, offshoring, capital markets, import, export, international trade, strategic alliances, e-commerce, entrepreneurship, social networking, banking, finance, trade, ventures, business, securities, stock exchanges, indexes, futurism, trends, citizen ambassadorship, enterprise, capitalism, international politics, commodities, prime rate, LIBOR, foreign currencies, foreign exchange, blogs, blogging, bloggers, aol, google, yahoo, msn, AP, news, media alerts, world government, world governments, international affairs, treaties, tariffs, trade restrictions, marketing, advertising, business development, arbitrage, obtaining capital, promotion, publicity, EU, NATO, military affairs, government regulation, trade restrictions, liquidity crisis, business opportunities, web-based businesses, communication, communications, technology, intelligence, embassies, consulates, business resources, Douglas Castle,The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, international politics, elections, time management, cyberspace, AI, energy, industry, productivity, Mixx, Digg, Technorati, Sphere, Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, LinkedIn, advertising, economics, strategy, management, cooperation, widgets, blidgets, links, incoterms, CCH, UCC, freight forwarding, custom house brokers, diversity, employment, culture, micro-loans, technological convergence, trends, financial planning, FOREX, futures, stock index, inflation, recession, sub-contracting, Department of Commerce, CIOF, the next generation, amnesty, humanitarianism, foreign aid, philanthropy, charity, LinkedIn, singularity, transportation, IT, intelligence, complexity theory, energy sources, shortages, climatic change, pop-culture, survivalism, mergers and acquisitions...