Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Trend Bulletin (09.28.2010): Consolidation, Monopolization and REAL Inflation.

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TREND BULLETIN (09.28.2010): Consolidation, Monopolization and REAL Inflation
For THE GLOBAL FUTURIST and THE TNNWC DAILY NEWS FEED by Douglas Castle



[Above Illustration Courtesy of CRAIN'S NEW YORK BUSINESS]
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Dear Friends, Futurists and Entrepreneurs:

Wall Street and Washington (through the US Federal Reserve Board) tell us that their is no danger of inflation during the course of the "foreseeable future" and that key interest rates will be held stable in the absence of a threat and in order to aid in the economic recovery believed by many to be occurring within the United States.

The classical example of inflation ("Classic Inflation") is a decrease in the value of currency such that more of it is required to purchase the same goods as could be purchased with a lesser amount previously.

The picture that is frequently painted is that of some defeated man or woman pushing a bushel basket filled with paper currency (usually US dollar bills) to the supermarket in order to buy a loaf of bread.

A note of caution is in order -- a very misleading "seeming deflation" can be created in a situation where there is insufficient available income (amongst consumers) to purchase goods or services at any price. That is to say, by way of illustration, that if I am unemployed and you (an aggressive and optimistic real estate broker) are showing me a house that sold four years ago for $500,000 which is now on the market for a mere $50,000, I still won't buy it. The marketplace, driven by desperation from the "sell side" starts lowering prices in order to clear inventory, but, ironically, regardless of how low the prices fall, too few people have adequate money (due to unemployment, vanishing pensions, decimated retirement funds, and the like) to make these purchases at any price. And these prices are part of the  market basket of goods and services that the government uses in order to determine inflation.

Theoretically (or actually), a nation can be experiencing "seeming deflation" even when the average family barely has adequate funds to pay for the barest of necessities.

In fact, because of business consolidations (where giant companies buy other giant companies, as in the case of Unilever negotiating to Purchase Alberto-Culver, or Southwest Airlines negotiating to acquire or merge with AirTran), marketplace competition is being eliminated due to fewer and fewer choices, and the consuming public is being increasingly faced with sharply rising grocery costs, airfares and the like -- as the quality of goods and services declines and as actual incomes and wealth decline. The reality is that when large companies combine, many jobs are lost.

Being a simple person myself, I look at the inflation situation simply: If I have lost my job, and I don't have any money, I cannot afford to subsist regardless of how much prices fall. I actually feel the full effect of inflation (i.e., I cannot put together enough cash to pay the mortgage, pay the note on the car and to feed my family) while the government is telling me good news about how we are in a period of either deflation or stabilizing prices...I cannot afford to send my children to college, and even if they were to get massive scholarships to most universities, they would not be able to get decent entry-level (or any-level) jobs upon graduation.

The tough reality on Main Street is that REAL inflation, the kind that severely and adversely impacts consumers, is actually climbing despite that CLASSICAL inflation (an economic notion that doesn't apply when unemployment and under-employment are quite high and continuing to increase). Using numbers, if my income decreases 100%, and the price of food remains 'stable' or increases 'modestly', I feel the same effect as if I were living in an economy where hyperinflation was in the newspaper headlines.

This situation does not improve if jobs are fewer and declining, but certain specialty positions are commanding higher salaries. If the interest rates charged by banks are at an all-time low but they are not making credit available to me, I cannot afford many of the necessary things which I purchased using credit before... things like my home, my car, my appliances.

When large stores which sell durable goods are advertising plans where you can purchase something today on a "layaway plan" where no payments are required for 12 or 18 months, and afterwards you (the lucky consumer!) can pay the balance off in non-interest-bearing installments, I do not see a great opportunity or a sign of economic recovery if I do not actually anticipate the ability to be able to make the first payments when they begin in a year and a half because I don't know if I'll be employed at that time. That is the reality.

I do not need to read The Financial Times or The Wall Street Journal once the prices of the things that they quote have become irrelevant to me.

No bargain is a bargain when I do not have a job, a positive prospect for a job, or any savings.

Broke is broke.

Forecast: Over the next 18 months, anticipate the following in the US, and in its industrialized European counterparts:
  • More mergers and consolidations;
  • Fewer permanent jobs, and a decrease in "real salaries" and "real income" (unless you work for Goldman...);
  • Rising prices on necessities;
  • A continuing reduction in the availability of consumer and small business credit;
  • Marginal businesses failing at an increasing rate;
  • A decline in the number of students graduating college, and a greater portion of students (at an older median age than that which had historically been associated with college attendance);
  • An increase in taking a year or two off (to work, travel, or live off of their parents or with friends) after high-school;
  • A significant increase in trade school advertising, and in people graduating with certificates instead of degrees;
  • Fewer divorces (due to the expense); and fewer office or workplace extramarital affairs (due to the expense and the decline in workplace attendance);
  • Declines in the quality of the customer service experience;
  • Very expensive airfares;
  • The beginnings of a precipitous rise in gasoline and fossil-fuel products -- an ominous sign of both REAL and CLASSICAL inflation on the way, and impacting the prices of everything;
  • A sharp increase in the cost of healthcare and healthcare insurance;
  • An increase in the percentage of suicides amongst two groups of segments of the population -- college-aged youth and Baby Boomers;
  • An increase in crime across all categories;
  • The disappearance of an increasing number of paper publications (mostly periodicals, journals and the like).
Who will fare best during the next 18 months, given this short-run futurescape?

Those who will fare best will likely be: frugal trust-fund offspring of dynastic families; directors and executive officers of the largest corporations, especially financial, pharmaceutical and oil conglomerates; healthcare professionals; certain licensed tradespersons (plumbers, for instance); cerebrotonic computer geeks; and, of course, intrepid entrepreneurs --my favorite group of people, and my greatest hope for the future.

Where there is entrepreneurship, there is great hope. Hope is so very important.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle, for

TNNWC Group, LLC (http://www.tnnwcgroup.com/) and The Global Futurist (http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/)
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Labels, Tags, Key Words and Reference Terms For This Article: unemployment, financial and investment trends, inflation,  consolidations, mergers, prices, declining real income, Real Inflation, Classical Inflation, entrepreneurship,The Global Futurist, The National Networker Weekly Newsletter, DouglasCastleBlogosphere, business plans, business planning.


Douglas Castle
Toll-Free Telephone: 888.317.6498
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Tuesday, May 11, 2010

When The Numbers Just Don't Add Up...

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When The Numbers Just Don't Add Up.....The Davinci Institute's Outlook On Future Trends - Douglas Castle's Insight and Commentary

Dear Fellow Friends and Futurists:

The following information has been excerpted from the Davinci Institute's Future Trend Report.

While I do not agree with all of the contents or views expressed in the Report, I believe that The Davinci Institute is one of a number of very interesting and thought-provoking sources of information which is worthy of your consideration. This particular report is quite interesting -- what it does not say, but prognosticates implicitly, is that a tremendous shortfall of US tax receipts combined with a growing level of government expenditures to stimulate (and subsidize) the US economy spells an abysmal fiscal deficit which can only lead to: 1) a bubble of hyperinflation just waiting to burst; 2) a devaluation in the US Dollar and a downgrading of US sovereign debt. There are indeed times when I wish that I hadn't majored in Economics while I was an undergraduate -- now is one of them. I am always troubled when the numbers just "don't add up."

In my humble opinion, the recently-proclaimed economic "recovery" in the United States is merely the calm in the eye of the storm. Further, I believe that the cost of this recovery will create a far greater economic calamity for the United States (and to a lesser extent, the rest of the world) than the one which we have recovered from.

Sometimes a potentially fatal health condition goes into remission -- but just as often, it comes back with a wrath and a vengeance that more than adequately make up for the brief respite from the pain and suffering.
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle 
_____________________________
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Abortion Rates Skyrocket Among Poor Women
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More Babies Born to Women Over 35 Than to Teens
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More American's Moved Last Year But Not Long Distance
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2009 Tax Bills Lowest Since 1950
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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

A COMMENT ABOUT THE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

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Dear Readers:

I depart from my customary prognostications and pontifications ("P and P" for short) to discuss the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve Board (the "Fed").

In today's NEW YORK TIMES, I learned that the Fed is reducing the discount rate, the special rate at which member banks can borrow from the Fed, and from their fellow banking fraternity members, to between 0.25% and 0.00%. This is not the amount of the reduction -- this is the actual borrowing rate! The article can be accessed by clicking on:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/17/business/economy/17fed.html?8au&emc=au

My response to the article at issue is posted below for your your enjoyment. If you don't have time to read my response, a capsule synopsis of its import might be, "The Fed is doing a miserable job." And they are. In fact, they are not only failing to help the Nation through the current crisis, but they are planting the demon seeds of future runaway inflation. Mr. Bernanke and the Board Of Governors are like a haphazard MASH unit, giving a blood transfusion of the wrong type to the wrong patient. Both patients will likely die.

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Castle Responds To THE NEW YORK TIMES Article, referenced above:

The Fed's rate reduction is a foolish and heavyhanded misuse of monetary policy where a more prudent regulatory or fiscal policy governing banks and lending would have been far more helpful.

The Fed's action is merely symbolic of its continued frustration in dealing with a growing recession fueled by two principal variables: 1)growing unemployment and loss of disposable personal income, and the banking system's tightening credit to both consumers and merchants. The banking industry's pulling in the reins on lending is further ensuring the steepening of this recession.

Sadly, an economy built upon credit, is being starved by a banking system which has not been given any enforceable or quantitative directive by the Fed to extend credit to the merchants and consumers who so desperately need access to capital in order to restimulate the economy through commerce.

The Fed's policies are misguided, and only serve to help the banks to continue their incestuous, low-risk game of unproductive interbank borrowing and lending. Banks are essentially investing in eachother and treasury instruments without putting any money into the hands of needful and legitimate borrowers -- the foundation of our economy.

It does not matter what rate that banks are charged to borrow at the discount window when there is no compelling reason for them to extend credit to facilitate employment, production and consumption.

The irony is that banks are actually curtailing consumer and business lending activities! In doing so, they are helping to perpetuate and steepen this crisis.

What is the Fed doing to get capital into the hands of merchants and consumers? Absolutely nothing.

Douglas Castle
http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/
http://theinternationalistpage.blogspot.com/
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I hope that you found the article, and my posted response, of interest.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle, for THE GLOBAL FUTURIST

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Saturday, November 8, 2008

TO REWARD STUPIDITY IS TO ENCOURAGE AND PERPETUATE IT

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Dear Friends:

To reward stupidity is to encourage and perpetuate it. To my sorrow, this post is about the United States of America.

A government which "bails out" or pays off the debts of companies which have been inordinately avaricious, corrupt, inefficient, negligent, noncompetitive or just incompetent is a curious way to shore up an economy which is headed into a profound depression. When I speak of depression, I speak of people being foreclosed upon, unemployed in massive numbers and unable to provide for their basic needs. When the average American Citizen is two weeks away from total financial devastation (i.e., homelessness, joblessness, hunger and potentially violent desperation), there is, in fact, a depression.

When the volatile and knee-jerk-of-the-moment, poll-conforming stock market rises and falls based upon the news of that particular day's political speeches without reflecting any corporate performance fundamentals or longer-term potential in its assessments of stock values, it becomes anti-analytic and dangerous. Even more telling than the incredible volatility based upon rumor and innuendo is the fact that whenever the market indexes and prices rise, all of the "gains" are pulled out (and traded for desperately-needed cash) by individuals and institutions who have lost faith in both the underlying companies and in the sensibility and rationality of the markets.At the root of this disaster there exists a deadly crisis of confidence.

Sadly:


  1. Individuals are generally overleveraged to the extent that they work to pay off interest and amortization, with very little for essential expenditure and none for savings;

  2. Institutions have encouraged this by their irresponsible practices and policies, and the terms "earning it" or "saving up for it" have become quaint anachronisms amongst the populace, which is largely obessessed with FICO scores and borrowing -- all of which have been fueling incredible inflation in virtually every commodity, from housing to automobiles, because of the availability of too much money from lenders;

  3. Free Enterprise does not exist in the United States, where barriers to change are immutable, and incentives to conformity and indolence are systemically inculcated. Innovation is hindered, and a "follow the crowd" mindset has predominated a culture once fecund with inventiveness and entrepreneurship;

  4. The theoretical "Middle Class", the buffer and bedrock of any civilization is disappearing;

  5. The United States government, through its arms and agencies, seeks short-term "politically expedient" fixes by "bailing out" failing institutions (banks, investment banking houses, insurance companies and large employers) with money which it must either print or borrow, fueling inflation, increasing the National Debt, incentivizing begging, borrowing and stealing instead of earning, innovating and private-sector problem-solving.

The United States is in a severe domestic depression, and this will likely steepen over these next few years. The world, to a lesser extent, is experiencing a deepening financial crisis as well, largely due to our example. Our country has spent incredible sums on prosecuting wars, financing "reconstruction," and spreading democracy -- and it seems that all of the funds have come from the domestic treasury and have "left the system" through the use of overseas banking, contractors and other parties outside of the scope of the domestic economy.

In brief, we are an impoverished nation, living on borrowings, and on borrowed time. Our wealth may be counted on unsupported paper...paper which is inexchangeable for buying necessities. The more that our political superstructure subsidizes inefficiency and misbehavior, the deeper the pit becomes. The problem is compounded when we insist on issuing these funds without any promise, in return, for a change in the conduct that has led a great nation to the eve of reckoning of its own mortality.

The money must ultimetely go to consumers, and not to the parties who have consistently, without contrition or compunction, exploited them. The benefits must be rewards for jobs creation, innovation, efficiency -- for problem-solving instead of problem creation.

Author Patrick Kennedy has written an article about a proposed series of actions which he would see the United States undertake in order to recover from its current crisis. I agree with Pat on many of his points, and I disagree on several of them, as well. But what is most important is that Mr. Kennedy, as a concerned citizen, thought about the problem and actually set about tp the colossal undertaking of proposing a blueprint for its solution. I respect innovation and intelligence, as I respect the courage to confront the truth and to take direct action without untenable, inefficient compromise. The article follows for your information and enjoyment.


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SOLVING THE UNDERLYING CAUSES OF OUR FINANCIAL DISASTER, by Patrick Kennedy
NOTES & SUGGESTIONS (Written on 7/6/2006 )
http://blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-HCis9sc6fqgYzJzE_UTQSloMDpctRPTVwhE0sJ742ms-?cq=1&p=6

I am not an economist, politician or an expert on war, taxes or law and it is doubtful that any reader would fully agree with all of the recovery concepts expressed in this memo. If you are interested enough to read it, you probably have an opinion – this is mine. I am aware that such things as welfare, unemployment benefits, Medicare, grants, loans, social security etc. exist; I am concerned with their administration, funding and future.

Terror is an ominous word; used daily by the media to alert us to potential danger from terrorists. Seldom is the word used by commentators or writers to describe the horror most often experienced by thousands of US citizens during their lifetime. Terror is also an appropriate word to describe;
· The mind set of a father or mother who has just lost their job to “out sourcing” and is faced with explaining to their family, why he or she cannot support them.
· The feeling that consumes you at the moment you realize that you are walking away from a house that you have loved, knowing that you have lost it and will never be going “home” again.
· The helplessness, when a family member is involved in a tragic accident or is seriously ill with no insurance or reserve and is confronted with the nightmare of substandard medical treatment or bankruptcy.
· Being too old to be hired, knowing that the social security you have paid for and counted on for 40+ years is delayed and may even be cut.
· Facing a monthly choice between food and medicine.
· A parent with a child or other family member hopelessly hooked on illegal drugs. These terrors have not been adequately addressed.

We are an industrious and resilient people, we are enthusiastic and optimistic and believe that all is never lost; that we can turn the tide and work our way through any government or self made dilemma. These assets have carried us far but, we do make mistakes – we savor and covet our right to make them and.... we all make them! We have always garnered the courage to forebear in the face of them and the will; to rise again and again in spite of them but now, we really need some legislative leadership.

We must strive to find leadership with the courage and sense of humanity to; ignore the lobbyists for deceitful agendas, the manipulating special interests with self serving issues, the colleagues who don’t share their passion for better American solutions and to fight for us – not for them!

It is easy, for the oracles of our society, who have not experienced these terrors, to say that all citizens should save more, work harder, get a better education and plan better. All of this is true and we should. But, it is equally as easy for us to say that our government is a large beneficiary of our labors and that the equity that we invest in it should help to support, in every way possible, its contributors and all of its citizens. This is also true and it doesn’t.

We are involved in a conflict testing our strength of arms and technology against an enemy that fights on will alone - at least that is what they think. They believe that; with every suicide bomber and attack against any free society - we lose our will to fight. They keenly observe that; each sadistic violent murder becomes tomorrows high profile story, each story solicits new protestors and each new protest convinces more Americans that we cannot win or that the price in American lives is too high or even that the war is costing too much money. We cannot allow this to be true.

Whether it is right or wrong to be in a conflict for the freedom of the Iraqi’s, it is definitely wrong to protest this war while it is being fought; protesters fuel our enemy’s endurance and their determination to continue to kill our soldiers. The time for objecting has past; it expired when our elected legislators voted (right or wrong – misinformed or not) to declare this war. This is a time for Americans to show their “iron”. A politician could never voice this opinion – he would be accused of violating our freedom of speech but, I can as, I am obviously not a politician.

Every sane person in the world wants the war to end and their troops to come home now, whether they believe in liberating Iraq – or not! However, we are now committed to the extent that, if we yield to the will of these assassins, hundreds of thousands of people, who now believe in us, will systematically be murdered and no one will ever trust us again. We will have delivered them into the hands of our enemies. We must stay the course, until they are capable of militarily supporting their new democracy. Despite what these terrorists think, our most feared weapon is not our strength of arms or technology; it is (as it has always been) the American will to win and prevail. These murderer’s do not need a cheerleading squad, if we let them win in Iraq they will be blowing themselves up in our cities! They proved their willingness to do this on 9/11, before we ever put a soldier in the field.

Americans all support the elimination of the evil dictators and zealots that call for American blood, who slay the innocent and repress their people’s thinking with self serving “religious” misinterpretations - all free people do. No one wants to go to war, particularly those who fight it and I personally, do not support the idea of allowing this particular war to be a catastrophic financial disaster because; it does not need to be!

Implementing the creation of any new tax, duty, tariff or law is difficult and sometimes dangerous as tax revenue must be used as intended however; desperate times call for desperate measures. There is no doubt that all of the subject matter here has been discussed (some is in place in half measures) but dismissed by CYA cautious advisors as politically not acceptable. It is easy to blame someone/everyone else for our current predicament; that exercise only empowers bitter people who are unable or unwilling to resolve difficult problems. In this spirit, I have some suggestions and observations:

This war has exacted American lives and an economic burden that our youngest and most valuable citizens will be required to endure long after we have departed. I suggest that we manage the financing of this war as a benevolent debt and not just as an act of charity.

· That we allow the Iraqis to produce their oil but insist that they execute an exclusive call on oil, for export or sale, to all nations who gave the lives of their soldiers and the funds to carry on (proportionately with the numbers of troops sent and the funds expended) in perpetuity.
· That we increase the combat benefits to our soldiers & their families by 5 times.
· That we assist them with every “oil producing” technology available.
· I suggest that we pay the Iraqi’s 50% of posted prices and use the difference to reduce the debt. This then, would give the US and its true allies a financial interest as well as a humanitarian interest in preserving their democracy.

Note: The critics will say that the US started the war to gain a foothold in a Middle Eastern oil state. Terrorists started this “war” and an ignorant, self serving, murdering dictator who sought WMD’s to exterminate any glimmer of freedom, precipitated it. We were doomed, by his arrogance, to fight him eventually – as with Hitler, better there than here and better now than later. Those that will protest this logical step (strangely), criticize and seem to be hardened against anything that generates revenue for nationalistic programs however, this is necessary. The people who love this country will not feel ashamed if we are informed that we are not giving the lives of our young and expending our financial freedom solely for holistic reasons – even if it is politically incorrect. I am not ashamed of the fact that, for whatever reason, there is another free nation in the world; though it cost us dearly.

Install a US import tax on all foreign crude oil, exempting the first $25.00/barrel and taxing 20% of any amount over $25.00/barrel. Use the proceeds to:

· Finance/subsidize alternative energy technology.
· Discourage foreign price gouging. I understand that they can produce and deliver crude oil to any destination at a cost of less than $6.00/barrel (they will soon realize that by charging over $25.00/barrel, they are financing their, alternative energy, competition).
· Balance the trade deficit.
Install a “special” windfall profit tax on domestic crude oil, exempting the first $45.00/barrel and taxing 20% on any amount over $45.00/barrel.
Use the proceeds to:
· Create funds to subsidize exploration, production and refiners, if oil falls below $20.00/Barrel (preventing the loss of continuous investment in exploration).
· Stabilize US production revenues at a profitable but, manageable level.
· Allow the economy and manufacturing to anticipate the upper level of energy and shipping costs.
. Install a “parity” tax on all imported goods and services arriving from any; non-democratic country, any country owing the US money and/or any country that violates international human rights laws as defined by us. Use the average of the 3 lowest priced US manufacturers, of like goods or services, as the marker.
*Important: Mexican goods or services should be exempt from this tax. This will;
· Decrease the exporting of US jobs.
· Regenerate the US manufacturing base with livable wages.
· Alleviate the trade deficit.
· “Possibly” reinstate and fund the social security system via new tax $ stimulation.
· Create an investment and manufacturing climate in Mexico that would induce their laborers to stay home and/or return to better opportunities than they have as illegal aliens in the US.

Install a 1% tax on each share of publicly traded stock that is sold to or by US entities with a 4% “provisional” tax on all pharmaceutical company and publicly traded pharmacy retailer stocks. The provision would exempt pharmaceutical companies that supply drugs to seniors or persons living below the US income poverty level at their cost, never market their drugs with more than a 200% markup and that did not sell medicines to (or in) foreign countries for less than they sell them to US retailers or citizens.

· This will not severely impact investors or R & D companies and it should only affect those wealthy enough to deal in stocks.
· With billions of stocks trading hands monthly, it may finance a workable, national health and livable senior drug plan.
· A national health plan, funded in this manner, would bring many corporations (auto manufactures, for example) back to the US - as supplying their workers with health care benefits has forced them into opening foreign plants.
· Forty million Americans, without health insurance, will be eternally grateful.

Replace our current income tax system with the Fair Tax Act (H.R. 25, S. 25) which has been languishing in the "in-box" of the House Ways and Means Committee since at least 1996. Exempt personal homes under $200,000 and all fuel and energy sources that are of non-fossil origin. This would;

· Eliminate the corporate income tax, and the huge cost of dealing with the income tax system that is passed on to the end consumer by every company that has a role in the making, marketing, distributing or retailing of everything we purchase. This (hidden) federal sales tax is paid by every consumer on top of all the other taxes we pay, and amounts to 15%-to-30% of the cost of every consumer product. It is paid by every person who buys things, whether they pay with Food Stamps or the proceeds of their trust fund.
· Cause the millions of tourists and illegal aliens who pay no taxes now, to pay their fair share of the cost of operating our government.
· Each year, according to the U.S. Customs Service, 60 million people enter the United States on more than 675,000 commercial and private flights. Another 6 million come by sea and 370 million by land. In addition, 116 million vehicles cross the land borders with Canada and Mexico . More than 90,000 merchant and passenger ships dock at U.S. ports. Another 157,000 smaller vessels visit our many coastal towns; none of these visitors pay US income tax.
· Allow every working American to keep his/her entire paycheck. Imagine what that alone will do for the economy!
· Make all American-made goods 15-30% cheaper on foreign markets.
· Eliminate the IRS, the single greatest disincentive to enterprise in this country.
· Promote bio-diesel (positively impacting farming and agriculture), all alternative fuel vehicles and solar/wind energy for electricity etc.
· Repatriate hundreds of millions of dollars that are lost monthly because drug dealers and others involved in illegal activities avoid paying any taxes (If they were taxed as they spent the money, the tax payers would get something out of it).
· Reclaim billions of dollars that are parked offshore (and are leaving) in accounts that are non-taxable; virtually billions would return and..... be taxable.
· The people who have money and are spending it; pay more tax and the people with little money; pay less tax. This sounds fair to me. The “hundreds” of good reasons to change the current (intentionally complex) tax system, far outweigh the “special interests” illogical rationale to keep it.

Install a “serenity” tax of 4% on, personal use, fossil fuel vehicles retailing for over $50,000. Distribute the funds to disenfranchised community tax treasuries to pay;
· Heads of households with disabilities that keep them unemployed.
· The property taxes on behalf of the senior citizens with homes valued at less than $100,000 and incomes below the poverty level. These folks do not deserve to lose a home that they have labored to own for 20+ years to a tax collector!
· This would also encourage clean burning, alternative fuel vehicle use. It may even encourage manufacturers to lower the cost of gasoline and diesel engine vehicles.
Redefine the “War on Drugs” by removing the profit to criminals. Illegal drug use costs the nation approximately $110 billion annually (not including the cost of loss of life, hospitalization, the prosecution/imprisonment of criminals and the US dollars that are lost to foreign criminals). We are a religiously orientated country and no religion advocates the use of these debilitating and dangerous substances however, no religious doctrine would advocate the costs in loss of life, human suffering or in crime either. These national disasters are and will remain a fact of our lives for as long as our government does not change our drug laws! We are perpetuating this travesty; we are creating a favorable climate for criminals and the purveyors of death by not decriminalizing drug use. Even a worse result of this failed policy, is the impact on our schools and children. I suggest the following as an alternative:

· Have all types of drugs evaluated and select only those drugs that do the least amount of physical and mental harm – primarily being natural substances.
· Tax and sell all of the chosen drugs through liquor stores subject to all local, state and federal ordinances, including legal definitions of minor’s laws and warnings.
· (This is the part that really gets interesting) Establish a non-punitive Random Student Drug Testing (RSDT) program in every school. Check all of the student population for drugs and alcohol weekly. If the use of these substances is found, include the findings on the student’s report card. Students who fail the drug/alcohol testing and/or are failing should be required to attend special “instructional” classes to get them back on track If there is no violation, issue a monthly, federally funded check of $300.00 to the parent(s) for each drug and alcohol free student who maintains passing grades!. This creates an incentive and rewards; the parents for monitoring their children and the children who do want an education and who refuse to use drugs or alcohol. This would be the ultimate “stimulus” package.
· Decriminalizing the use of “illegal” drugs would save the US 110,000,000,000 annually; there are about 30,500,000 students (including college) of the age that are susceptible therefore, we could pay the parents $300.00/month for keeping their children on track. This would also offset the amount of expense that is necessary to maintain a student in school through college, thus helping single parents and/or struggling families.
· There are many moral and religious reasons, for all parents to forbid their children to use drugs or alcohol. The truth is that many parents just cannot or will not! This “financial” incentive not only encourages them to try harder (they will) but, rewards the parents who are successful.
· Stop treating individuals that are “hooked” on drugs as criminals so they will not be forced to hook others or turn to burglary, prostitution, robbery, or embezzlement etc. in order to support their habit (resolving 80% of all existing crime). They would not be imprisoned (which would clear 75% of our future prison inmates), but rather could, without recrimination, seek legitimate medical attention with no reprisals.
· This alone will save the tax payers Billions of dollars. By decriminalizing drugs we remove the profit from the criminals, we will remove their incentive to hold our citizens hostage to their terror. Short of destroying all sources of grown drugs (We have the technology, see the novel “To Slay a Demon”), there is no other resolution that I can envision, to end the most costly war ever waged and worse terror ever imagined; the “War on Drugs”.

We, the concerned citizens of the United States, need to elect legislators who have the courage to tell us exactly what must be done; in the face of every other interest (political or otherwise) – no matter how much we like it or don’t like it– no matter what it might cost them in “ratings” or political equity and then... DO IT. Cut through the unconscionable government tangle that we have all created and/or allowed to exist and re-establish our path to financial dignity and to nationalistic pride. We need to go down in history as the generation that;

· Gave democracy a foothold in a Middle Eastern oil producing nation, without adding to the national debt.
· Did something about our dependency on foreign oil.
· Saved our county’s manufacturers.
· Resolved our illegal alien problem.
· Saved social security.
· Gave us a real national health care program.
· Saved hundreds of thousands of homes for hardship families and seniors.
· Helped to save our environment.
· Ended the IRS nightmare.
· Worked to pay off our national debt.
· Saved hundreds of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars by decriminalizing and thereby ending the War on Drugs.
· Ended our everyday terror.

P. Kennedy, a concerned citizen.

Best Regards,

Patrick Kennedy

kennedy200@sbcglobal.net


####


I am an ardent internationalist, a old-fashioned constitutionalist, and a skeptic who has worked closely enough with our government to understand just what lengths certain political aspirants ro privateers will go to in order to either get us involved in a war, or to steal our civil and constitutionally guaranteed rights (including, but not limited to lying, aiding and abetting supposed "enemies," scapegoating, malicious prosecution, abuse of "executive privilege," classifying (i.e., hiding) critical records as "secret" in the protection of the "National Interest," extortion and, of course, murder), and I do not share Mr. Kennedy's view of who actually started (or permitted) the 9/11 tragedy, or of the mechanism by which oil prices are established. But I think he gives noble recertification to the notion of "Freedom Of Speech," as well as to the idea of the virtue of trying to solve problems instead of glancing around the Capitol to find somebody to blame.

Mr. Kennedy, it seems, is worthy of the gift of democracy. If more of us cared to be as forthright and constructive as he has chosen to be, we could hoist ourselves out of the fiscal and spiritual famine that has come over this once-blessed country. Democracy, as I view it inlight of Patrick's passionate arnd coherent article, requires constant analysis and mionitoring. It requires vigilance. It needs positive inducements for decent behavior than excessive regulation and capriciously applied laws and standards.

Thank you, Pat.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

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Wednesday, July 16, 2008

THE UNITED STATES: CRITICAL TIMES, CRITICAL CHOICES

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WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES.

Dear Friends:

I have chosen to dedicate this space to an article about the United States... The nation where I grew up (arguably), dreamed my first dreams, and have lived most of my life. A country often regarded as the "Leader Of All Nations," and the "Land Of Opportunity." My grandfather came to this country from Russia expecting to find the streets paved with gold.

At this moment, the United States is a nation at the crossroads, and is exhibiting an increasing dichotomy between its celebrated "American Way," and the harsh realities of 1) how it is now perceived by its own population, and 2) how it is now regarded by the rest of the world. The US is going through a trying period of very painful introspection and intense scrutiny by the other nations which inhabit its neighborhood on the planet.

For the US, these are critical times which demand critical choices...both by those of us who make our geological homes here, and by those of us who are outside of its physical borders. Troubled times create great opportunities for intelligent, enterprising individuals, as well as for pirates, unimpeded by conscience.

Whichever category that you have chosen to occupy, I present you with some information. Each of us has: Things to ponder. Plans to make. Actions to take.

1. A ZERO-GRAVITY DECISIONMAKING ENVIRONMENT.

We must do our thinking with the understanding that even the process of our observation, or even our inaction, will have an effect on the circumstances. Remember the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle? Whether we idly wait or act decisively and precipitously, our personal circumstances will be changed because of our choices. My favorite example is the case of the "ultimate conservative," who leaves his currency in his house safe while he "waits for things to stabilize." This poor fellow (probably living in Arkansas) is losing money daily, while he waits for stability -- and stability, despite its definition, is always temporary. There are actions to take, regardless of instability. We must hedge against domestic inflation, the declining value of the US Dollar, and the tempestuous credit markets. If the world is changing and we choose to hold still, we are being moved anyway.

Questions:

Because economies move in waves and cycles, at which point are we on the curve? What will the amplitude of the cycle be? How long will the cycle last? [We Economists like to quietly guess, and then cook up an explanation after the fact].

How do we best incorporate some form of "Chaos Cushioning" into all of our planning.? We must chart a course, but we must constantly monitor it, and be prepared to engage in evasive maneuvers. The whole notion of "Steady State" is a temporal illusion.

How do we avoid the very Human instinctual protection of denial, and dispassionately accept reality and the challenge of change? Our long-held beliefs, if proven unfounded, serve only to hinder and encumber us.

WHOM DO WE TRUST?

Every day we are inundated with information. It may be news radio, RSS feeds, newspapers, magazines, professional advisors, or political (or government agency) speeches. There is a great deal of information available -- so much so, that it has begun to sound like background noise. In this age of information overload, it has become increasingly difficult to 1) get anyone's attention, and 2) determine what we should focus on and what we should ignore. Going further, we must determine (through an increasingly ingrained facility of "sensorial triage") who to listen to [competence criterion] and if who to believe [the matter of trust]. We are constantly posed with the dilemma of judging the veracity of the message by judging the integrity of the messenger.

Knowing this, we have to develop the ability to selectively screen out the conflicted and avaricious self-promoters and purveyors of hidden agandas, and find human resources whom we can trust. They are rare. People in the United States are disenfranchised and disillusioned...they believe, by and large that lying is part of what should be expected of politicians, corporate CEOs and even publishers.

In his Laws Of Relationship Capital, publisher and author Adam J. Kovitz (THE NATIONAL NETWORKER) speaks about an individual's trustworthiness being one of the key variables which enters into the computation of that person's Relationship Capital value.

Author Jay Goldberg, in his critically-acclaimed book, HOW TO GET, KEEP AND BE WELL PAID IN A JOB (Outskirts Press) , invests almost a quarter of the text on dealing with ethical dilemmas in the workplace. Most of the means of dealing responsibly and ethically with the workplace situations addressed by Mr. Goldberg in his book would have seemed obvious to most Americans twenty years ago. I am obligated to report that the conventional wisdom of twenty years ago now has to be codified in a procedure manual. Twenty years ago, this book would not have found an adult market -- today, it is a secular bible. You can get direct information aout this book at http://outskirtspress.com/webpage.php?ISBN=9781432725297 . It's worth reading for any prospective employer as well as for any employee entering or re-entering the work force.

One of the most important investments of time which Americans (and, for that matter, everyone and anyone anywhere) can make is in choosing whom to trust. The persons and business entities which will successfully differentiate themselves from the chattering throng of persistent competitors for our attention and our money will be those who:

  • Have proven their trustworthiness and integrity (character);
  • Have a unique and fascinating way of presenting themselves, their products and their services (innovation/creativity); and
  • Have something to offer which is of great utility and exceptional quality (superiority).

The three simple points above comprise the foundation of branding. Trust is becoming an increasingly significant differentiator in the building of a brand.

In a world of so many choices, where things are bought and sold by and from strangers to strangers through the Internet, and where everything seems so accessible...trust is becoming a critical component in decisionmaking. This is a belated return to a time where one person would say to another, "My word is my bond," and mean it...when a person's reputation for integrity was truly prized. A good reputation was worth earning and defending -- sometimes in a duel.

In sum, Americans would like to know that if someone speaks to them of the threat of "Weapons Of Mass Destruction (just an example, folks)," that those weapons really exist, and that the threat is genuinely imminent. People are certainly jaded, but there is societal sea change in the direction of trust. I am glad about it.

While nations engender and even promote distrust to control their respective subjects or citizens, individuals will increasingly run the contrary course of building and seeking trust.

WHAT IS "EQUITY," ANYWAY? AND WHAT IS/ARE/WERE SAVINGS?

A hypothetical discussion overheard in a bar:

If I can have the use of something without having to own it, isn't that just as good as owning it? If I can make small monthly payments to obtain the use of a car or a home which I could never afford to purchase outright...if I can live like a multimillionaire on a peasant's salary, why shouldn't I? Why wait for years and years to enjoy a life of luxury if I can get it now? If a financial institution offers me credit, doesn't it mean that I'm worthy?...after all, bankers and financial experts would never offer me a loan or a credit line if they weren't certain that I was a good risk, right? Right? Hey! Why is everybody giving me dirty looks? What'd I say? And why is Douglas Castle italicizing all of my words?

We are suffering from a deeply encultured INSTANT GRATIFICATION habit, fueled by the excessive availability of credit. I am calling it "credit" because nobody likes to use the "D - Word." <debt>

Sadly, most Americans are slaves to credit. An increasing portion of personal post-tax income goes to paying off high monthly loan and lease payments. Wages are used to service these payments when savings accounts are nonexistent. When wages disappear, debts go unpaid. When debts go unpaid, repossessions, foreclosures and other undignified and uncomfortable things happen.

As of the date of this writing, the majority of US citizens are so enslaved by debt that they are from between four to six paychecks away from being completely dispossessed? The term "dispossessed" is a politically correct euphemism for "out in the street." We should all feel mighty insecure.

Ironically, while our government can and does print money to pay its debts (although this practice tends to devalue our currency and to fuel inflation), individuals are not permitted to avail themselves of this printshop panacea for fear of incarceration, which can be every bit as unpleasant as poverty, except for the "advantages" of "government-subsidized housing" and "gourmet government dining."

Credit availability drives prices skyward, too. It's human nature: When I know that I can scrape up enough money to make the monthly payment, why should I care about the cost of "buying" the damned thing? Why, if I earn 50,000 USD per year, I can drive out of the auto-dealer's showroom with a 34,000 USD car! Why shouldn't I?

Americans tend to dis-save (e.g., spend more than they actually earn), whereas many Europeans and Asians customarily save and accumulate wealth to provide for the future, and for future generations. This is as responsible as it is romantic and charming.

Relatively speaking, as inflation skyrockets, the Dollar plummets, and jobs are being exported, Americans are getting poorer and poorer than their European and Chinese counterparts.

America's assets are either owned by massive financial institutions (many of which are now failing), or by foreign interests. Our precipitous loss is everyone else's gain. During the course of the next several years, the United States will be a bargain basement for the greater Global Community. The Middle Class, upon whose collective back the greatness of this country was built, is evaporating. Americans are poor, but we don't quite see it yet...we're like the fellow in the movies who is walking about, yelling and screaming, but no one hears him (think "The Sixth Sense" or "Ghost"), and he can't seem to get anybody's attention. That's because he is DEAD but DOESN'T KNOW IT.

THE FINAL FRONTIER FOR VALUE-ADDED.

Americans will not be inventing too much that is new during these next few years, with the exception of advancements in Nanotechnology, Stem Cell viability, Technological Convergence, Artificial Intelligence and nuclear energy provided through Thorium-based reactors. In fact, I would rather be invested in thorium claims than in a portfolio of exchange- traded stocks. Thorium Energy, Inc. is a company with no operations, no management, and with all of its money invested underground. Literally. A share of stock is only as valuable as the competency of the company's management multiplied by the brazenness of its public relations firm -- but thorium, rare earth elements, and other non-precious (a misnomer) resources lying beneath this planet's surface are not subject to the human frailties and the frequent revelations that shock the stock market.

Americans will, however, make product advances in terms of the bundling and re-packaging of existing information and communications technologies. We are still a nation of ingenious marketeers and tinkers, and that is our greatest remaining gift. The irony here is that while we will be comming up with these ceaseless innovations here at home, the manufacturing and servicing will most likely be outsourced to China and India, and the largest global markets will be Asia, the European Union, some of the Slavic countries and some of the Latin-American countries, as well.

Thank you for joining me. It was a pleasure to take a break from the Oil Crisis for a short while.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

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