Showing posts with label Fear and the Future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fear and the Future. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

The Future Of War - And There Will Definitely Be A Big Future In It.. 4 Predictions For The Next Half Century

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War, and the obsessive urge to compete violently may be the result of some combination of hard-wired protective instincts (as in 'the best defense is a good offense'), hunter-gather deep-brained programming and societal environmental factors. There is a sad element of anti-social pragmatism to war, conquest and domination... it is far easier to take from another (by overpowering or outmaneuvering that person) than to go through the rigors of earning or creating our own.  The unspoken question has always been, "If I could steal it from somebody else instead of struggling to earn it, which would I choose, as a rational Human Being, if I could get away it, and go unpunished or unopposed.

The sense of entitlement so often associated with those who have already tasted great power and wealth (and also, just as sadly, with those who have lived on the dole or on government hand-outs for several consecutive generations) plays out like this...

"The middle class make it, and the entitled ones take it."

Philosophically, war may well be a more efficient means of satisfying some of our primitive and basic needs (as contrasted with Maslow's Heirarchy Of Needs), in that it is essentially a means of commerce (don't laugh) where you, as the conqueror, dominator, victor or racketeer simply get what you need at minimal cost, with minimal time and minimal effort. 

Children, when very young, steal toys from each other much of the time; each thinks of himself or herself as being the center of a localized universe, where instant gratification is right, and there are no other opinions or consequences to consider. Grownups embezzle, steal, defraud, rob and pillage to acquire the means to suit their needs through what are considered antisocial tactics and strategies. This is an economically driven choice.

But then, there are those who will do damage to the property and persons of others simply because of a sociopathic compulsion to inflict pain. Others love conquest and view it as a sport, or as a basic means of indisputably demonstrating superiority.

War has a long history. It dates back as far as archeological records indicate. And it has a guaranteed future. There are very few things of which a Global Futurist or a trend-spotter can be so certain. War has much more in its favor than does peace.

War provides a staging ground for testing new technology -- things like the atomic bomb, drones, poisons and pestilences;

War provides a laboratory for us to test the limits of the human body and mind -- the soldier makes a great test subject (with or without informed consent) for things like LSD, DMT, steroids, amphetamines and a host of other drugs, psychological operations and technologies that some less-than-empathetic scientists simply must "take for a spin." The Nazis did it. The Russians did it. And the Americans have done it.

But most importantly, war provides and opportunity to either stimulate a sluggish economy, distract the suspicious or disgruntled citizenry ("Let 'em worry about the war! It'll keep 'em too busy to question some of our slickery [a Lingovation] and keep 'em too busy to mount an internal rebellion."), and to make certain of us incredibly wealthy. Heck - don't you see the other, more mundane meaning in the time-honored designation "Soldier of Fortune"?

The following is an excerpt from a posting (more like a treatise) by a gentleman named Paul Mattick on The Economics Of War, published in 2010. Take a deep breath, and read it in its fullness:

Ever since Lord Keynes’ dictum that wars—like pyramid-building and earthquakes—may serve to increase wealth, it has been increasingly recognized that war and preparation for war are necessary aspects of the prevailing economy and a condition of its proper functioning. Because, in recent history, only inflation and war have resulted in full utilization of productive capacities, the question has been raised whether this association between war and full employment is an accident or a necessity. It is usually answered with the assurance that, although it is no accident, it is not a necessity, for government expenditures can lead to full employment whether they are geared to the needs of war or to the requirements of peace. With full employment as the sole goal of economic activity, even people opposed to war do not seriously object to the creation of "wealth" in the form of armaments and military installation, even though they may prefer "wealth" in the form of social welfare. Quite independent of preferences, government spending includes an always growing amount for purposes of defense. The "military wealth" of the United States is said to exceed $124 billion. This "Real and Personal Property of the Defense Department" does not include investments in atomic energy estimated at $12 1/2 billion, nor the properties of the "National Plant and Equipment Reserve," nor the supplies and equipment in overseas depots, nor the military assistance to allied and favored nations. The great bulk of the inventory consists of things that can be used up, wasted, or that will become obsolete. The Defense Department is actually a tremendous business enterprise. In 1955, for instance, it spent more than $42 billion, or about one-seventh of the national income. It was directly responsible for the employment of close to 4 1/2 million people, or about 7 percent of the national labor force. As always, so now, too, there is much talk of cutting government spending and reducing the budget deficit. This economy talk, however, does not include spending for military purposes. On this point both "savers" and "spenders" think alike. The "defense establishment," as the President made clear recently, "is an exception to the general desire of living within the amounts set by the Budget Bureau after it had cut the spending requests." Opposing all cuts and arguing for increased government spending, Truman’s former chief economist Leon H. Keyserling found it necessary to complain that "we remain content with a defense strength far below the minimum judged essential by most experts." But then, spending for defense loses its sinister implications when it is referred to as ‘‘rising cost of peace." 
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Aside from the economic lure of war, as stated before, there is the in situ experimentation process which accompanies the profiteering activity. This is discussed in an article excerpted from BigThink, which I have read several times. Please take a moment to read it and let your mind run free in an imaginary futurescape of endless wars. After that preparatory exercise, please come back for several predictions about war which I would like to share with you. Really. PREDICTIONS.

DANGEROUS IDEAS [From BigThink Ideafeed]
Military Readying Mind-Reading Equipment for the Battlefield
Mind reading devices that can alert soldiers to things they've seen, but that their brains aren't yet aware of, could save lives. Some scientists worry it could also extend the theater of war.
READ NOW
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During the next half century, there will be a great deal of wars. But they will be different in many ways than they have ever been before. As this entry is being written, the reader should bear in mind that more than 70% of the world's proclaimed and recognized sovereign nations are involved in militant hostilities, either directly or indirectly...


FOUR PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE WARS OF THE NEXT HALF CENTURY:

1) Much of nation-to-nation warfare will be conducted utilizing remote robotic technology (drones and the like), computer hacking (and cracking) to destroy key utilities, subliminal messaging through the social media, and communications blackouts or blockades (to destroy command and control, and to keep the citizens or subjects of a targeted nation from being able to communicate without physical contact. Viral propaganda and computer viruses will play major roles [front and center] in generalized full military and civilian attack strategies;

2) Ground warfare (infantry), and air warfare, both physical and logistical by their nature will utilize combined technologies incorporating: stealth; motion detection; heat signatures; infrared; encrypted radio satellite uplinks and downlinks for precise geolocation and constant communication; weaponry using advanced supersonic and subsonic psycho-emotional disruption; plasma waves, laser weapons, and localized climatic disturbance weapons and variations on the augmented railgun will be used in lieu of conventional automatic weaponry and explosive devices because of the increasing demand for A) non-nuclear weapons with high megadeath and geographical coverage potential, or, [ironically] B) because of their tactical targeted precision - each the opposite of the other, yet both complements of each other;

3) There will be sobering incidences of the use (limited to major cities and to portions of countries) of chemical and biological weapons, as well as a weaponized deployment of  swarming nanotechnology -- this last technology is analogous to a swarming of bees with a united goal, instant telepathic communications (as if of one mind), and heuristic adjustments to overcome impediments to target neutralization -- this man-made peril could have more killing potential as biological and chemical weapons;

4) Most substantial strike forces will be privatized armies (mercenary forces) with allegiance only to the multinational mega-companies which either contract with them or which own them captively as defenders and as internal company profit centers. These soldiers will be true warriors, psychologically, emotionally and physically engineered and trained for targeted destruction. There will be experiments with, and the testing of machine "enhancements" implanted into these warriors.
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IN SUMMARY:

It promises to be a dim future for law and a bright future for order, as war becomes a privatized, incorporated enterprise, Loyalties will be tested and shifted. The geographical boundaries of many of the countries as we now know them will be altered. My prediction is for the emergence of a high-technology replay of Medieval times -- a frightening version of a science fiction writer's combination of incredible technolgies in the hands of brutes with Middle-Ages mindsets. 

I am frightened of our invariable movement in this unenlightened direction.





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Friday, October 30, 2009

THE POINT OF REVERSAL - FEAR and the FUTURE

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The Point Of Reversal

Dear Friends and Fellow Futurists:

Two of the principal behavioral characteristics which have guided the course of Human history (albeit haphazardly), and which will undoubtedly play their respective roles in shaping the future, are 1) fear and 2) aggression. By "aggression," I mean the appetite to grow, to own, to control, to dominate, to acquire and to win -- the ultimate manifestation of a need to assert one's own self-worth. 

Aggressors conquer while the frightened majority cower and submit. The forces seem opposed, but they are sides of the same coin.

Fear is a demonstrably more powerful motivator than opportunism (or aggression) in the vast majority of people. Fear breeds compromise, complacency and a feudal system of social organization. A world of slaves and masters.

The great curiousity here is the paradoxical point of reversal -- the point where there is so much fear and pent-up frustration, that the dispossessed, the ghetto constituency, and the downtrodden become so numb with pain that it drives them to the point of revolt or rebellion. After all, if you are "tired yet wired" with too much fear, suppression can convert of aggression. The issue is: at what moment will a point of reversal take place in the foreseeable future?

Points of reversal cause rebellions, revolutions, an occasional beheading (Marie Antoinette) and a shift in the balance of power. The eerie sense of "nothing to lose" makes for bold and oftimes violent counteractions.

The article which follows was written for Braintenance, another blog which I contribute to.

My questions to those of you who are truly trend-spotters, behaviorists and dedicated futurists are:

1)   How many years are each of the major industrialized nations away from a critical point of reversal, where the populace "rises up" against the status quo?

2)   What form will this point of reversal take?

3)   What are the metrics associated with the "critical mass" for a point of reversal event? Some of these include the rate of joblessness, the rate of inflation, the loss of confidence in major institutions and leadership, the loss of trust in government, shortages of supplies (fuel, food, etcetera)...

There's much here to think about.

--DC
####  

Fear versus Positive Motivation - What moves us?

Dear Thinkers, Ponderers and Students of Life:

It is sad, but true. Human beings are much more readily motivated to action by the threat of pain or loss (i.e.,by fear) than by the opportunity to gain, socially, professionally or financially, with some curious high-risk exceptions where it comes to instant gratification. Of course in these latter exceptions, the risk usually involves getting caught (and it is perceived as unlikely) while the reward is pleasure (which is perceived as very likely).

Fear overcomes inertia or creates inertia, while the positive incentive...the opportunity to gain tends to be far less of a driver. Again, there is another exception here where the potential perceived gain is enormous with respect to the amount of risk or work entailed in the process. People tend toward indolence.

Viewing this situation, why do you suppose our minds and our resultant behavior tend to operate in this fashion?

Here are some possibilities:

1.     Because we visualize threats more powerfully, and more sensorially;

2.     Because we feel that the likelihood of loss is always more probable than the likelihood of gain;

3.     Because we are more emotionally invested in maintaining the "status quo" than we are in getting ahead -- we are only motivated when we feel what little we have, or what little we believe that we deserve;

4.     Because we perceive that an adversary's ability and willingness to carry out a threat is far greater than our ability and willingness to make something positive happen through our efforts;

5.     Because we feel, in the deepest reaches of our subconscious, that we are more deserving of punishment than reward (through feelings of low self-esteem, guilt, and the like) and that it is more likely that harm will come to us than happiness;

6.     Because it is, in fact and perception, easier to run away from something than to run toward something;

7.     Because we feel that we are weaker than those around us.

I would like to know your thoughts, as would Christine West, a colleague and a featured columnist for The National Networker Newsletter. Please either respond by posting directly to this this article in the "comment" section below, or by writing directly to Christine West, noted expert on facing down and overcoming fear, at info@TheBusinessMD.net . If you write to Christine directly, please write "Braintenance and Fear" in the subject line of your email.

You can visit Christine West's website (a beautifully designed one, too) at http://www.thebusinessmd.net/ .

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

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