In mid-September, Deepening Divides: Megatrends To Watch - Part 1 was published. The article, which can be found at http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/2011/09/deepening-divides-megatrends-to-watch.html addressed the nature of these social, economic, political, technological and other movements. They are not merely small waves, aberrations or market adjustments -- they are changes which take place over a rather long period of time, but which keep growing, unchecked, and ultimately lead to dramatic changes affecting all of Human civilization.
I referred to them categorically as Juggernauts. We tend to notice them, but since their effects don't seem imminent, or aren't sufficiently disturbing, we de-prioritize them -- we procrastinate until they are fully upon us. Then it becomes the traditional dance of pointing fingers, placing blame, and miserable crisis management.
The "deepening divides" are enabled, encouraged (I've personified them) and exacerbated because no one chooses to address them. When they become sufficiently intrusive, we tend to wonder, "When did this happen?" Like a tiny crack in the ice on a lake, they grow deeper and further, with unfathomably profound implications for the world and our species. I liken this to walking through the woods and hearing a slight buzzing; as I walk further, it becomes louder. Soon, I find myself stepping into a nest of bees, and I am fully ambushed by an unshakeable cloud of angry bees, stinging me until I fall over in anaphylactic shock, with my body swollen to the size of sea lion.
I brought myself right into the calamity by ignoring small but persistent signs... a gradual increase in the volume of buzzing. I was not vigilant and I failed to react quickly and pre-emptively. The greatest megatrends do not require the studies of a brilliant mind to recognize -- Futurists and journalists don't usually find them exciting or "sexy" enough to warrant serious coverage.
Some of the changes covered in the first Part of the Article are reviewed briefly below:
1) The United Nations will become increasingly irrelevant.
2) The average Human attention span will decrease very significantly.
3) Human immunological responses, resiliency and recovery abilities will wane, ushering in a decline in the general level of public health.
4) Logistics, fulfillment and transport issues will become increasingly inefficient and technologically unsuitable, e.g., outmoded, to keep pace with the increasing demands for shipments of goods intranationally and worldwide.
5) An increasing percentage of the world's population will become poor.
To the above list, I would like to add the following to our Global Futurist vision. And bear in mind that any single one of these "sleeper changes" has the power, in and of itself to radically change the way each and every one of us lives:
6) Militaries, prisons, police agencies and other less media-covered and sensationalized functions of national governments will become privatized, and a handful of giant private contractors, without binding legal or ethical sovereign allegiance will essentially control the greatest concentration of each country's weaponry, as well as the power to terminate and incarcerate individuals almost at will. As Napoleon once said, "God is always on the side of the heaviest artillery." Individuals will essentially be controlled, if not enslaved by these huge monopolies;
7) The average age of individuals will increase, and the percentage of the population being considered as elderly (as of this moment, those individuals over 70 years of age) will increase. The quality of life for these people will decline, a greater number of them will be institutionalized, and many will be kept alive due to the continued profit motive driving healthcare providers to bilk third-party payers for all sorts of life-prolonging procedures, and for purposes of scientific experimentation. The elderly will be increasingly perceived by the young to middle-aged segments of the population as being a 'drain on the economic system'. This is a mindset that leads to frightening consequences if we permit our respective imaginations to wander down their darkest corridors.
8) There will be a dramatic increase in the direct private and dynastic ownership of companies and assets, and a flight from publicly-traded securities or paper debt and currencies. Volatility and growing distrust of the capital markets is beginning to lead the flow of wealth into direct participation in managed business. The Chinese are masterful at this. The Americans are not.
Investments will be increasingly assessed (i.e., valued) based upon their ability to generate recurring income for their owners, and less for the likelihood of a market killing. The gambling portion of the public will continue to play high stakes in the stock market, while the sobered and saddened one-time speculators will rebuild and store wealth in the form of direct ownership of income-producing assets. This could fuel a longer-term (more than eight years from now) rise in the value of multifamily dwellings, farmland, operating mines, smaller businesses involved in low-tech services and product manufacturing and distribution.
Imagine: "Hey, buddy! I've got a hot tip on a company that's going private."
9) Many of the "free to user" computer, internet, communications, publishing and social media services which have become dependent upon these free services will be shocked to find that the seemingly benign geek-born monopolists (Google, Twitter, Facebook, and others), are going to start billing consumers and businesses for services in the same way as any traditional utilities companies. This will force many entrepreneurs and start-ups into bankruptcy, and will cause their larger counterparts to increase prices significantly, as they simultaneously petition the various governments involved to intervene and regulate these rapacious business giants.
Be vigilant. Anticipate changes, Prepare plans and muster the will to put them into effect. These MegaTrends will not only be game-changing -- they will be revolutionary in every sense of that term.
Douglas E Castle [http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com]
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