Near-Term Trends, Forecasts and Projections at 01.21.2011 - The Global Futurist - The Internationalist Page

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Near-Term Trends, Forecasts and Projections at 01.21.2011 - The Global Futurist - The Internationalist Page
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Dear Friends, Fellow Futurists, Entrepreneurs, TNNWC Members and Global Thinkers:

Greetings and compliments. As usual, the customary disclaimer applies. If you do not read it and understand it, you are not authorized to read any of the content which follows it. If you cannot read it or understand it, you probably should be reading a different article, on a different blog, by a different author...perhaps you should just be watching television or playing with a Slinky. These are not generally considered to be dangerous activities (unless you are taking medication, have a health condition limitation, or you are doing the Slinky thing on or near steps or a stairwell). Having said this, if you concur, please read on [I will wait].


Note: The information contained herein is not and should therefore not be considered or construed as financial, investment, tax, accounting, legal or health advice under any circumstances. If you are seeking professional advice regarding any of your business or personal affairs, please consult with the appropriate professional. Neither the author, nor The Global Futurist, nor The Internationalist Page are in the business of offering any  professional advice, and none of the foregoing parties shall assume any liability, either express or implied, regarding any actions taken, or not taken, by any third party or parties as a result of, or in any manner, relating to the information contained herein. The reader of this article understands and acknowledges that he or she has read and fully understands the foregoing, and indemnifies and holds harmless each and all of the aforementioned parties with respect to any liability whatsoever resulting from any actions taken or decisions made based upon, or in relation to, any of the information contained herein.

NEAR-TERM TRENDS, FORECASTS AND PROJECTIONS AT 01.21.2011

1. The price of oil (per barrel) will rise to between $120 and $150 US Dollars per barrel, and both oil and gasoline prices at the pump in both the US and Europe will reflect this. The timeframe will be between now and June, 2011. Prices per gallon of gasoline in the US will rise to approximately $5.00 US per gallon at the pump. All transportation-related industries, and all transportation-dependent commodities will rise in price in response. This will slow the alleged economic recovery and dampen employment prospects in the United States and in Europe.

2. The US mainstream media will begin focusing on tensions and troubles in North Korea and Iran, while the US military and contractors dependent therupon will be lobbying for increased defense spending. As China becomes a world leader and flexes more and more of its fiscal and military muscle, this lobbying will increase in intensity, and effectiveness. The timeframe for this will be between now and 2012. An increased defense allocation and related spending will ultimately result. Privately-owned and publicly-traded military, engineering and other "contractors" will continue to thrive, as military actions and "nationbuilding" activities become increasingly privatized.

3. International investments in certain of Asia's ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) will increase, particularly in Singapore and Malaysia. These ETFs will outperform most other exchange-traded non-commodity investments. Major oil company stocks will outperform the general securities markets during most of this time [now to 2012].

4. There will be an increased percentage of consumer purchasing activity taking place over the internet internationally, as travel becomes less practical and more expensive. This will benefit the operators or e-commerce businesses. [now to 2012]

5.  There will be increased civilian arms sales within the United States - this has already begun in response to fears of domestic violence and a deepening security crisis in neighboring Mexico, which will become increasingly controlled by major drug lords and international drug cartels, to the extent that the Mexican government will be merely a vestige of authority. [now to 2012]

6. There will be a further exodus of jobs, talent, opportunities and well-educated individuals (recent college graduates and displaced Baby Boomers) from the United States to Asia, Canada, Western Europe and to parts of Central and South America. [now, and for another five years at minimum]

7.  The economies of  China, emerging nations in Southeast Asia, India and Brazil will outperform virtually all of the others. [now, and for the next three years at minimum]

8. For reasons unknown to the author, catastrophic weather events, and rapid environmental and ecological changes will continue to be more the norm than a mere aberration. Global Warming? Ecological Abuse? Revelations? I offer no cause -- only an effect. The business of catastrophic event-related insurance and political risk insurance will rise to greater public prominence and thrive in profitability. [now, and continuing for an uncertain period of time]

9. Cloud computing will rise to a greater acceptance level, and mobile devices will be the predominant means of communication. Texting will all but replace email, and a few major "software as service" cloud providers will emerge to dominate the communications landscape. Mobile applications and mobile-friendly communications will supplant most software-stuffed computers, and their use. Communications security will be a concern, but will not significantly slow the adaptation of cloud configurations and dependencies.

10. Stuxnet, the sophisticated virus which confounded Iran's efforts to become a nuclear power (i.e., to build nuclear reactors for peacetime energy production), is just one of many government-sponsored or organization-sponsored cyberterrorist weapons or threats to be developed and used during the next few years. The interrelationships among universities, governments and giant computer service providers will make this impossible to safeguard against. Science fiction? No. Reality.

11. The business of reputation management on the internet (i.e., protecting an individual's or company's image or reputation on the internet from being sullied by citizen journalists, vindictive [and occasionally unfounded] but indelible complaints and allegations which do not disappear from search engine findings and data-mining research) will rise to prominence and grow. Large enterprises will use the technologies of reputation management entites offensively as well as defensively in battles over marketshare and the the court of public opinion. I believe that this industry will be booming during the course of these next two years, commencing with Spring of 2011. The ingrained philosophies and ethics of negative campaigning virtually assure the success of these reputation management forms -- competitive campaigning will feed these companies to robust growth.

I believe that's all that I have for now. I look forward to updating you.

As someone's uncle once said, "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." Where there are new problems, there are also new opportunities for those who can see them and seize upon them rapidly.


Tags, Labels, Key Terms: ETFs, exchange-traded funds, oil prices, recession, unemployment, brain drain, futurism, baby boomers, outsourcing, offshoring, demographic shifts, climate change, ecology, catastropic weather, cloud computing, malware, cyberterrorism, new types of insurance, internet reputation management, industries of the future, internationalism, e-commerce, Stuxnet, foreign affairs, CFR, Council on Foreign Relations, defense budget, military privatization, drug lords, drug wars, Articles by Douglas E. Castle, unfolding trends, international investing, global economics, TNNWC Group, mobile applications, mobile-friendly, communications security, hackers, industrial sabotage, industrial espionage, search engine manipulation, search engine rigging, negative campaigning, SEO manipulation, DouglasCastleBlogosphere, Fibonacci, militias, opportunities in times of crisis, internet reputation protection, malware issues, data-mining, The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, Taking Command 


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TRUSTING YOUR LIFE TO A STRANGER (OR TWO)

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TRUSTING YOUR LIFE TO A STRANGER
Re-posted 10 July 2009

Dear Friends and Futurists:


A headline from the NEW YORK TIMES:
Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Wednesday, July 8, 2009 -- 12:39 AM ET-----
Google Plans to Introduce a PC Operating System

"In a direct challenge to Microsoft, Google is expected to announce on Wednesday that it is developing an operating system for a personal computer based on its Chrome browser, according to two people briefed on Google's plans. The move would sharpen the already intense competition between Google and Microsoft, whose Windows operating system controls the basic functions of the vast majority of personal computers."
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COMMENTARY - PART 1: The Extremely Frightening Scenario

Microsoft's operating system has made Bill Gate's one of the world's wealthiest monopolists, and has given Microsoft access to incredible amounts of data (public, private and highly classified), as well as control of the functioning of the majority of the world's communications, analytic and automated systems and facilities. Think of some of the potential abuses of this vast power:

1. Access to all of your banked money and securities, and everyone else's.

2. Access to all of your secured facilities (door locks, bank vaults, power plants, government military installations and nuclear facilities).

3. Access to anything (all information) put into any email, computer file, or scanned file.

Google has a similar power over our lives.

Either of these two goliaths could have most of the world at its mercy. And now, they are openly at war. When you think about the implications of this, do you ever imagine yourself as a skinny, loincloth-clad dolt with his legs chained together cuaght in the middle of a tusk battle between two wooly mammoths? I do. I even become claustrophobic.

Either one of these companies has the ability to collapse an economy, trigger a war, and much, much worse. This goes well beyond the Forbin Project. This goes well beyond Absolute Power. As a matter of fact, either of these companies has the ability to terminate Human existence as we have come to know it -- they are bigger than any governments -- they are wired right into governments. We, as Human Beings, are fully at their mercy. We cannot police or regulate entities which are so much more powerful than ourselves and our greatest institutions. We can either trust their organizational morality, or we can distrust and fear them...waiting for the day when they choose to openly declare their reign over our species.

Each of these two juggernauts would like to engulf and devour (or obliterate) the other. As engaged adversaries, they are already formidable to the civilian population...as a combined entity produced by a politically-expedient marriage of oligarchs, they may well be more so. Either company has, at present, sufficient available cash to purchase virtually every small or large (but unprofitable) communications innovator (i.e., Twitter, YouTube, etc.) which has an important position of utility in the marketplace. Feedburner, the largest and best-known RSS feedcaster in the growing blogosphere is now owned by Blogger -- which, in turn, is owned by Google. These types of transactions are textbook cases in vertical integration.

The potential conflicts of interest in this domination are also very frightening. Microsoft's operating system has all but squeezed out all other prospective players in the PC marketplace by coercing companies to use its operating system or suffer the "consequences" of not being able to offer other vital capabilities and programs; Google is the world's best-known search engine, but markets its own products...you can speak about search engine ranking algorithms until your fuses blow out, but pedestrian common sense would lead a rational person (or even some of my closest friends) to the conclusion that Google might give its own profit-makers higher rankings. For all I know, having Google rank or rate sites might be every bit as sensible as having a sixth-grader mark his own test paper, or having an active alcoholic in charge of tending bar or maintaining the accounting records relating to the wine and liquor inventory.

Plainly speaking, we are entrusting our lives to a very small number of organizations that might put their own profitability and power ahead of our consumer satisfaction experience. Power does have the proven potential to corrupt, or at very least, to tempt even the righteous.

What can any person or organization do to stop this domination and its potential abuses? Absolutely nothing. Anti-trust lawsuits and other prosecution or regulation tactics and strategies are about as effective as trying to make an unarmed citizen's arrest of a machine gun-toting terrorist on methamphetamine. [Yes, yes...I know...the metaphors are abominable but I am getting my meaning across]. A prudent Futurist would do well to accept their domination as reality and predict and prepare for their actions. Expecting a moral prerogative or a government agency to come to the rescue is (oh, no -- not another metaphor....or is this one more of an allusion?) is tilting at windmills.

The most frightening components of this nightmare scenario are if:

• One or both of the companies decide to get more aggressively involved in lobbying and kingmaking in government;

• One or both of the companies experiences a significant "glitch," and the systems that our tenuous civilization and infrastructure cease to operate properly - the results would be immediate and calamitous;

• Any one of a number of rogue or disgruntled programmers at either of the companies decides to inflict damage upon the masses by creating or launching a formidable computer virus or worm. These bright young minds have the demonstrated ability to destroy as well as create. There are some of their number who might enjoy the rush of adrenalin associated with hacking into or otherwise corrupting some major programs which operate almost every aspect of our lives...from traffic lights and commerce, to nuclear power plants and the entire national defense system. It is amazing to think that so many young, brilliant and virtually unsupervised staffers have immediate, unimpeded and unquestioned access to potential weapons of mass destruction. The push of the right button at the right moment can turn the lights out all over the grid. On that note, here is just a small sample of this incalculably damaging potential at play:

Click on: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090708/ap_on_go_ot/us_cyber_attack . This article appears courtesy of Associated Press (AP), and is titled, "Federal Web sites knocked out by cyber attack." The incident was reported on July 8th. As noted earlier, this is just one small sample.

I personally think that the realistic threat of a devastating cyber-attack poses a far more clear and present danger than that of: nuclear war caused by either sovereign nations or fanatical fringe groups; major civil unrest (an oxymoron, there), Global Warming, Massive Climatic Change, or poisoning of food or water supplies. Stringent emissions standards, better banking oversight and gun control legislation won't make an iota of difference. If you'd like to start an interesting discussion at a party attended by heads of state and senior military officials, just innocently ask them something along the lines of, "Hey guys! I'm curious. Do you folks have redundant computer systems hosted and managed by several unrelated vendors...I mean, like, a 'backup system'?" The things that we count upon, the things which we depend upon...these are our greatest areas of vulnerability.

COMMENTARY - PART 2: What We Might Expect

There is wisdom in being prepared to address those things which we cannot change. Hence this whole business of trend-spotting and extrapolating, and its natural application to the these goliaths with virtually limitless power. Let's anticipate what they might be likely to do, and what me might be able to do, either in preparation or in response, to use this knowledge to our advantage.

1. THE SOLO INTEGRATION PLAY. In 2002, eBay bought PayPal (a merchant payment processing system, ideal for ecommerce) for the sum of $1.5 Billion. It is indeed a meaningful marriage, giving eBay customers an immediate means of being able to settle their sales and purchases. Since eBay is a publicly-traded entity, with its stock held by a large number of individual shareholders, eBay's gain is its shareholders' gain -- many shareholders use eBay's services, as well. The whole scenario looks rather like a cooperative or a credit union, but without any real banking being involved.

With so many financial institutions in tenuous financial straits, there may well be an opportunity for Google and Microsoft to get into a) more of the merchant payment processing business, and b) some serious aspects of the retail banking business. As an increasing volume of all business is transacted via internet, it makes a good deal of sense for this market to be further harvested for financing. This could most efficiently be accomplished from the standpoints of both regulatory compliance and logistics by having some of the existing financial institutions provide the "backoffice" functions for these giants. Ironically, these backoffice functions are all computerized and invariably involve, well...Microsoft! A silly analogy: Computers and banking are like chicldren and loaded guns.

2. THE CLASH OF THE TITANS PLAY. In this scenario, Google unsettles Microsoft by hitting it where it hurts most...in its operating system. Google provides a great deal of consumer communications services, a great deal of value-added innovation, and has a greater cross-section of the consumer marketplace (because of the dependence upon its many services) than does Microsoft. Google is perceived as more innovative, more consumer-friendly, and more customer interactive than Microsoft, which is dominated by the personal presence of Bill Gates and a seemingly endless string of bad "upgrades" -- can you smell them? Vista, Internet Explorer 8...all of which are beta-tested on the public. Google appears to be more receptive to feedback from the marketplace - from its core consumers. In a battle to the death, and barring a business combination of the two companies, Google will outmaneuver Microsoft, to the cheers of the public (and of Steve Jobs, jumping about gleefullyover at Apple).

3. THE TO EACH ITS OWN PLAY. It is possible that Google will simply become more of a social media services provider, and Microsoft will become an increasingly operations-oriented company (like the IBM of old, but more progressive). It is possible that Microsoft will creep into the financial services industry, while Google keeps polishing its Chrome. Let's not forget that Microsoft's operating system is very deeply embedded into the marketplace -- like a heartworm in your favorite pooch. In this, the most optimistic scenario, we will still be ruled by two giants. And there are numerous individuals within each of these monoliths who have the capability of doing incredible damage on a whim -- simply and quickly. No guns, plutonium, carbon monoxide, melamine, or vial of Andromeda Strain required.

I have taken the step of backing up this article after writing each paragraph. I feel vulnerable to a loss of hours upon hours of hard work due to an unexpected computer glitch. It has happened to me before. At least when the lights go out in a storm, we have an emergency generator.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AFTER THE ORIGINAL RELEASE OF THIS POST (Added 7/11/09):

ALTERNATIVE TITLE: DEPENDENCIES, TRUST and VULNERABILITY

Futurists: What is the greatest actual threat to civilization? Are we taking too much for granted?http://twitlik.com/GOOGLESOFT #TNNW -DC

Reference terms: google, microsoft, dependencies, trust, vulnerability, monopoly, power, Blogs by Douglas Castle, merchant payment processing services, finance and banking, vertical integration, The National Networker, SrMeetUp, Internal Energy Plus, clear and present danger, destruction potential, command, regulation, domination, #TNNW, #TNNW_BUZZWORKS, #SrMeetUp, #Braintenance, indolence, inertia, behavioral psychology, search engines, data mining, redundant systems, antitrust regulations, media controls, operating systems...abuses of power, acquisitions, Douglas Castle blogs, Feedburner, google, industry domination, mergers, microsoft, monopolies, search engines, YouTube

SOME NOTABLE TRENDS AND SIGNALS: THE TRANSPARENT SOCIETY - April, 2009

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THE TRANSPARENT SOCIETY

Dear Friends:

Several trends and signals have come to my attention that I would like to share with you. Please use the information wisely, and conduct your own research (if you are so inclined) to confirm or debunk my observations and insights.

GLOBAL WARMING

This news item is fresh off the press at the NEW YORK TIMES:

"E.P.A. (the United States Environmental Protection Agency) to Clear the Way for Regulation of Warming Gases."

"The agency on Friday is expected to formally declare carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases to be pollutants that threaten public health and welfare."

Please read more at http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na .

Upon second glance, this is actually a multiple message, and here are some of the threads to follow:

1. Global Warming has now been fully accepted by most of the world's governmental decisionmakers as an indisputable scientific fact -- that it is, indeed, a murderous juggernaut headed our way;

2. Regulators in the U.S. and G20 believe that human activities contribute significantly to Global Warming, and that by changing our ways and our standards, we will be able to either significantly mitigate or forestall the effects of Global Warming;

3. We should expect increased environmental compliance audits, expenses, penalties and taxes as a result of this conclusion and the ensuing regulatory intervention;

4. This should be seen as a major victory by environmentalists;

5. This should be seen as potentially economically discouraging to new and existing businesses (as it represents a signifcant element of increased compliance costs and prosecutorial risk), and as a slight, but possible, hindrance to economic recovery.

6. This may encourage some investment in the technological sector in terms of developing means of reducing or processing gaseous emissions. I do not, however, go so far as to predict an increase in the sales or share price of Beano, or other companies involved in similar businesses.

7. The imposition by the EPA of regulations on US businesses will affect trade viability in international commerce as international co-ventures and transactions will have to conform (whether inbound or outbound)to EPA guidelines. Expect the regulatory bodies of many nations to follow the example of the EPA.

If this trend toward governmental intervention and oversight helps prevent or mitigate the allegedly disasterous effects of Global Warming, it will have indeed been a positive one. If Global Warming is unaffected, it will just have been a further intrusion by government-at-large on the private sector, both in the US and Internationally -- this would indeed be an Inconvenient Truth.

My personal contribution toward staving off Global Warming will be to reduce the amount of CO2 I emit when I spout off hot air. I will also encourage others to minimize their exhalations and expulsions (from all manner of orifices), as well.

INTERNATIONAL STRIFE

There is significant opposing troop movement in the direction of Afganistan. Many US troops (being removed from a still-unstabilized Iraq), as well as other "allied" troops will be amassing forces in and around Afganistan. This will have to incite increasing hostilities between Pakistan and the nations of the West engaged in the interminable "War On Terror." This will also continue the trend of friendlier relations between the West and India, Pakistan's principal nemesis. Did someone once say "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"? Let's watch this play out.

Expect continued histrionics, threats and widely-heralded displays of military ineptitude (i.e., failed rocket, bomb and satellite tests) on the part of North Korea. Certainly not during the current regime, or any familial successor to it.

Darfur, and other emerging nations which are not regarded as politically significant, affluent, or oil-producing, will continue in unabated carnage and suffering while the world superpowers stay focused on economic (recession-related) and environmental issues, rather than on sociological and humanitarian ones.

INTERNET SOCIAL MEDIA

Facebook, Twitter and other social media are finding adherents, members and addicts in increasing numbers daily. While this represents an increase in the qualtity and diversity of Human communications, it also represents a continuing tendency toward "virtual" relationships and the de-personalization of business and human affairs. The art and leisure of socializing are being rapidly supplanted by terse, impersonal communications. These communications are readily accessible by government agencies and any interested (and persistent) third parties, so privacy is a fast-disappearing luxury. Welcome to the Transparent Society.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

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