16 Phrases to Illustrate Some Human Common Traits

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16 Phrases to Illustrate Some Human Common Traits

The article which follows was authored by Dr. Franco Oboni (foboni@riskope.com) for The Global Futurist. As an expert in multiple areas of international risk assessment, mitigation and management, Dr. Oboni, through his firm (http://www.riskope.com) and http://www.foboni.wordpress.com/ advises both private sector and public sector entities and organizations on integrating risk factors into their decisionmaking processes. Through his dealings with many organizations throughout some of the most dangerous parts of the world, and in his capacity as advisor to senior policymakers, Dr Fanco Oboni has become, albeit inadvertently, somewhat of an expert in behavioral psychology and the "Human Factor" which is involved in every business decision. Dr. Oboni is a Featured Columnist for THE NATIONAL NETWORKER Newsletter.  

As a Risk and Crisis Manager working all over the world supporting corporations, governmental agencies and individuals in their decision making and alternatives selection process, I have learned that we, human beings, share very strong and significant common traits, despite the apparent huge differences contributing to make our world such a colorful and wonderful place.

I am neither a psychologist nor a sociologist, so I will leave the discussion related to the origins of these common traits to those specialists.

Having said this, I feel it necessary to set forth a list, to raise awareness, as I believe that the world would be a better place, and more importantly, that we would build a better future, if we were to modify our characteristic behaviors and responses in these areas.

To make it simpler and clearer I will not describe the traits themselves, but instead compile a list of typical, commonplace phrases which reflect those traits. The list is split into four categories, A to D, describing the situation in which a person “normally/unfortunately” generally comes out with a phrase (I have included four examples per category) corresponding to a trait that we should modify.

So, for example:

WHEN: (A) People are made aware of a hazard (something unpleasant that could happen to those people), they GENERALLY REPLY:

1. 
   
   "Oh, yeah, I know, but that will not happen to me...because I know better, I am lucky, It has never happened before...."
   
   
   
2. 
   
   "Well, it has happened last year/in the last five-ten years, so we are good for a while."
   
   
   
3. 
   
   "Actually we had a security system for that, but we turned it off, as the alarm was scraring off people...and you see, no accident has happened since!"
   
   
   
4. 
   
   "Risk assessment is only there to scare people about huge accidents that never happen. Think positively!"
   
   
   

WHEN: (B) Something has gone wrong (could very well be the same guys in the list above), they GENERALLY REPLY:

1. 
   
   "What  bad luck, gee..."
   
   
   
2. 
   
   "I cannot understand how this happened... we had it all under control until then!"
   
   
   
3. 
   
   "Well you know, the alarm did not work that well."
   
   
   
4. 
   
   "We should probably do some risk assessment right now."
   
   
   

WHEN: (C) Decisions are to be made (could very well be the same guys in the two lists above), they GENERALLY REPLY:

1. 
   
   "You can do all of the analyses you want, but at the end, I will make the decision, following my instinct/my gut feelings, (and other body parts or particular garment areas): it has never failed me before."
   
   
   
2. 
   
   "I can see pros and cons and my decision will take all of those into account: you know, I have always taken calculated risks."
   
   
   
3. 
   
   "Man, when you are an entrepreneur, you know you have to take risks!"
   
   
   
4. 
   
   "You know, we have the experience to deal with whatever might come up in the course of this project."
   
   
   

WHEN:.(D) Contemplating project's fiasco, failure to perform, bankruptcy, they GENERALLY REPLY:

1. 
   
   "What happened is unprecedented, unforeseeable, how could we have...."
   
   
   
2. 
   
   "Well, there were so many uncertainties, what a pity..."
   
   
   
3. 
   
   "Well, we tried with all our best people and invested all of that money, ...well, you know, sometimes the best intentions.... (or, "sometimes things just happen")
   
   
   
4. 
   
   "We had done it so many times before, and lots of others have done it, how come it did not work this time?"
   
   
   

I am sure you can dig out examples you have heard about (or you may have lived as an actor), where these or other similar phrases were used by one or more stakeholders.

For instance, the Subprime fiasco and resulting economic turmoil, generated at least the following statements among Bankers, politicians and affiliated professionals:

A1, A3, A4, B1, B2, B3, B4, C1, C2, C3, C4, D1, D2, D3, D4.

You may have noticed that the only one missing is A2 [“well, it has happened last year, so we are good for a while”]. BEWARE: when the next bubble blows up, A2 will most certainly be in the list.

Am I pessimistic? Please do not get that very wrong impression. All my work, and my life is geared toward getting people, corporations and governmental agencies to turn to rational risk and crisis management, to perform risk-based decision making, to establish their risk tolerability and enhance their chances of success. Approaches and methods scalable for small to huge businesses and projects do exist, and I use them every day for the benefit and protection of my clients and their interests.

It's important to note the difference between rational risk and crisis management, and rationalized risk and crisis management. The very Human trait of rationalizing is indeed one of the biggest impediments to sensible risk mitigation or avoidance.

-- Franco Oboni

Labels and Terms: alternatives, bubble, business strategy, decisionmaking, economy, Making the Future, oboni, participation in the process of future-building, recession, risk, selection, turmoil

TACTICS AND STRATEGIES - Today until 2012

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Dear Friends:

Two postings ago, I spoke of some of the many hardships that the declining global economy will be visiting upon us during the course of the worsening global recession (which I would never call a "depression," as this latter term has become Politically Incorrect). Yet, as doors to conventional employment and credit markets are being decimated by the frightened people in charge, opportunities are coming to light. I would like to discuss these here. Grinning, and head-nodding are not only permitted, but strongly encouraged.

Here are the ways to think, the places to be and the things to do:

• You probably should never trust a man having the last name "Madoff" with your money... and although every U.S. defense lawyer would immediately jump out at me and say, "according to the American System Of Justice (all rise!), he [Bernard Madoff] is 'presumed innocent until proven guilty'," my bet would be with "any person, at any time, is as guilty as the government wants him to be." To wit: former New York judge Sol Wachler (who, himself, was snared by the FBI while dressing up as a cowboy and stalking his one-time mistress) once said, "A good prosecutor could indict a ham sandwich," and the U.S. Government's conviction rate stands in excess of 98% as I write this. Similarly: do not lend money to a fellow whose name is "Skip"...be very cautious before dating someone whose last name is "Loveless"...and never throw a pair of shoes at another person who is protected by the U.S. Secret Service. As a side note, throwing a pair of used gym socks is cheaper, just as offensive across a broad spectrum of cultures, and might make you famous. This ends the humorous portion of this article;

• Understand the difference between Tactics and Strategies -- Strategies are the longer- term plans you make for achieving your ultimate goals and objectives, in accordance with your ambitions, desires and inclinations. A strategic plan maight cover a span of time from several months to an entire lifetime, but its destination is where you want to be. Tactics are short-term initiatives for dealing with the impediments, complications and situations which you encounter along the path to achieving your goals and objectives. They often involve palliative measures, adjustments in timing, a slight detour from the map -- but they are merely immediate accommodations, and should never keep your ultimate focus from your goals and objectives. The simplest analogy is in a situation where you are planning to go to a supermarket, and your ordinary route is blocked off by Police Crime Scene Investigators, a fallen tree, a picket line of anti-government protestors, an oily chemical spill, or an inoperative traffic light; while you will navigate a new route (the tactic), you will still be heading for the supermarket (the strategy to appease your hungry children who are suffering from Taco-Bell Gastritis). Don't lose sight of strategy when engaged in a tactical maneuver;

• Renegotiate your mortage and other personal debts with institutional lenders -- while they are generally as heartless as they are headless, they would rather have a performing loan (or even a loan settled at a discount) than a defaulted or non-performing loan. They are today's 'bad guys' and have certain suble regulatory imperatives which are making them more receptive. Be proactive and scare them a bit. They want to keep your loan in good standing, even if their tactic du jour is to restructure or modify your repayment schedule. They will be more cooperative if you are very explicit with them about 1) the dire economic consequences with which you are faced, 2) with your knowledge that they are doing this for many other borrowers, and with the fact that 3) it is a "win win" proposition for them [trite but effective]. By the way, don't waste time with those aggressively-marketed consumer credit management companies...negotiate with each credit card company yourself;

• If you must pay Inland Revenue, Internal Revenue, or any tax authority, try to pay by postal money order instead of by check. This may help to forestall or even prevent any levy and seizure of your bank account. I would add that if you are a U.S. citizen, or any party subject to U.S. taxes, pay timely and treat the tax authorities as a high-priority creditor. They have virtually unlimited rights and access to anything you own or earn, and they can tack on interest, penalties and other charges at will. You are outgunned - render unto Caesar before he sends his soldiers after you;

• If you are in a technical business or trade, focus your assets, marketing and efforts on repair and maintenance -- While people cannot afford new autos, homes and other large-ticket items, they are increasingly compelled to care for and maintain what they already have. Don't sell a new box -- sell the servicing and upgrading of the old, but salvagable one;

• Businesses which conduct e-commerce via internet are much better choices for investment and promotion than geographically-anchored businesses which people must drive to in order to procure products. This is the era of the online entrepreneur. Consumer purchases will be declining, but an increasing percentage of them will relate to a) repairs and maintenance, and b) online purchases;

• Identity theft, as well as crime, in general, will be increasing. When purchasing online, use a PayPal account instead of a credit card account. Further, if you are an online merchant, you might consider using PayPal as your principal merchant services provider for this reason;

• In business, try to keep your payment obligations in U.S. Dollars, and your billings, borrowings and receivables in Euros to the greatest extent possible;

• If you have an investible portfolio, you might consider keeping some of your holdings in gold, Euros, international Euro-denominated instruments, and very inexpensive multiunit housing properties (non publicly traded) which are producing current income, and which you do not have to borrow money to purchase. In investing, now is not a good time to leverage up and buy on any type of margin. Invest for asset preservation and current return. The notion of the "hot tip for quick gain" is for pathological gamblers and imbeciles;

• Develop your networking and relationship-building resources, as well as your team skills -- partnerships offer diversification of abilities, revenue sources and moral support in difficult economic times;

• If you are in corporate middle management, start thinking like an entrepreneur and building an independent business. You might also start to circulate a winning resume with a captivating cover letter (see the SELF-HELP, PERSONAL GROWTH AND PROFESSIONAL SUCCESS Sections at either HUMANITAS MAXIMUS or IEP in order to get some superb resources) -- your corporate days may be numbered;

• The fields associated with self-help, counseling, religion, astrology will be growing -- Pay serious attention to them, and get into them if you have the inclination, skills and energy. A world of people is desperate for reason, restoration of hope and faith, and information to help them to deal with a difficult time and a very uncertain future. Help these people in earnest, and profit by it.

I wish you, each and all, a wonderful holiday season, a resurgence of self-confidence, a growth in faith, and a renewal in person-to-person communications and socializing.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

NOTE: THE NATIONAL NETWORKER WILL BE INAUGURATING A NEW PRESS RELEASE, PUBLICITY AND PUBLIC RELATIONS SERVICE IN JANUARY. IT IS THE BEST INVESTMENT ANY SMALL, OR UP-AND-COMING INTERNET-BASED BUSINESS CAN MAKE. IT PRODUCES MAJOR RESULTS FOR MINIMUM DOLLARS. LEARN MORE...

KEYWORDS, TERMS AND ORGANIZATIONS:

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A COMMENT ABOUT THE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

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Dear Readers:

I depart from my customary prognostications and pontifications ("P and P" for short) to discuss the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve Board (the "Fed").

In today's NEW YORK TIMES, I learned that the Fed is reducing the discount rate, the special rate at which member banks can borrow from the Fed, and from their fellow banking fraternity members, to between 0.25% and 0.00%. This is not the amount of the reduction -- this is the actual borrowing rate! The article can be accessed by clicking on:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/17/business/economy/17fed.html?8au&emc=au

My response to the article at issue is posted below for your your enjoyment. If you don't have time to read my response, a capsule synopsis of its import might be, "The Fed is doing a miserable job." And they are. In fact, they are not only failing to help the Nation through the current crisis, but they are planting the demon seeds of future runaway inflation. Mr. Bernanke and the Board Of Governors are like a haphazard MASH unit, giving a blood transfusion of the wrong type to the wrong patient. Both patients will likely die.

####
Castle Responds To THE NEW YORK TIMES Article, referenced above:

The Fed's rate reduction is a foolish and heavyhanded misuse of monetary policy where a more prudent regulatory or fiscal policy governing banks and lending would have been far more helpful.

The Fed's action is merely symbolic of its continued frustration in dealing with a growing recession fueled by two principal variables: 1)growing unemployment and loss of disposable personal income, and the banking system's tightening credit to both consumers and merchants. The banking industry's pulling in the reins on lending is further ensuring the steepening of this recession.

Sadly, an economy built upon credit, is being starved by a banking system which has not been given any enforceable or quantitative directive by the Fed to extend credit to the merchants and consumers who so desperately need access to capital in order to restimulate the economy through commerce.

The Fed's policies are misguided, and only serve to help the banks to continue their incestuous, low-risk game of unproductive interbank borrowing and lending. Banks are essentially investing in eachother and treasury instruments without putting any money into the hands of needful and legitimate borrowers -- the foundation of our economy.

It does not matter what rate that banks are charged to borrow at the discount window when there is no compelling reason for them to extend credit to facilitate employment, production and consumption.

The irony is that banks are actually curtailing consumer and business lending activities! In doing so, they are helping to perpetuate and steepen this crisis.

What is the Fed doing to get capital into the hands of merchants and consumers? Absolutely nothing.

Douglas Castle
http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/
http://theinternationalistpage.blogspot.com/
####

I hope that you found the article, and my posted response, of interest.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle, for THE GLOBAL FUTURIST

KEYWORDS, TERMS AND ORGANIZATIONS:

globalism, CFR, NGO, UN, WTO, IMF, central bank, outsourcing, offshoring, capital markets, import, export, international trade, strategic alliances, e-commerce, entrepreneurship, social networking, banking, finance, trade, ventures, business, securities, stock exchanges, indexes, futurism, trends, citizen ambassadorship, enterprise, capitalism, international politics, commodities, prime rate, LIBOR, foreign currencies, foreign exchange, blogs, blogging, bloggers, aol, google, yahoo, msn, AP, news, media alerts, world government, world governments, international affairs, treaties, tariffs, trade restrictions, marketing, advertising, business development, arbitrage, obtaining capital, promotion, publicity, EU, NATO, military affairs, government regulation, trade restrictions, liquidity crisis, business opportunities, web-based businesses, communication, communications, technology, intelligence, embassies, consulates, business resources, Douglas Castle,The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, international politics, elections, time management, cyberspace, AI, energy, industry, productivity, Mixx, Digg, Technorati, Sphere, Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, LinkedIn, advertising, economics, strategy, management, cooperation, widgets, blidgets, links, incoterms, CCH, UCC, freight forwarding, custom house brokers, diversity, employment, culture, micro-loans, technological convergence, trends, financial planning, FOREX, futures, stock index, inflation, recession, sub-contracting, Department of Commerce, CIOF, the next generation, amnesty, humanitarianism, foreign aid, philanthropy, charity, LinkedIn, singularity, transportation, IT, intelligence, complexity theory, energy sources, shortages, climatic change, pop-culture, survivalism, mergers and acquisitions...

YOU HAVE BEEN SERVED.

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Dear Friends:

YOU HAVE BEEN SERVED.

...an ominous title for a post about what we can expect during these next five years. I see that it has caught your attention. That is a positive occurrence for both of us.

There will be some tremendous and traumatic changes in the world during the course of only a few years, and savvy individuals will incorporate these anticipated changes into their plans and thrive, while others will merely suffer the consequences. By crude analogy, it is a matter of "surf, or be crushed by the tidal wave."

NOTICE: The article which follows is not intended to be treated as tax, financial, investment or legal advice.The reader is advised to seek the assistance of legal and investment counsel, and other experts and advisors as may be necessary, prior to embarking upon any investment strategy and before making any investment. Investment feasibility varies from individual to individual, depending upon personal economic circumstances, expectations and objectives.

1) The United States will be embroiled in economic warfare with the EU, the oil-producing countries and with China, as: the US dollar declines against the Euro and other currencies; as more jobs are exported from the US through increased outsourcing and offshoring; as the US domestic economy declines steeply (in terms of falling employment, decreasing real personal income, increasing price levels, increasing imports, decreasing imports, forced consolidations of numerous financial institutions, increasing outbound investment by US enterprises and funds in foreign economies) and as China becomes an increasingly powerful exporter and consumer. This trend will continue, without reversal, for more than ten years, and US dollars (as well as many US dollar-based investments) will lose tremendous value. The threat of a "cold war" with China, and perhaps even Russia will replace terrorism as the principal national security concern.

2) The US and other G-8 Nations will move in the direction of a cashless society as the counterfeiting of currency becomes increasingly easy due to improved computer scanning technologies.

3) Despite existing fears about identity theft, Internet-based commerce will boom as fuel prices continue to rise (or remain uncertain), consumers become more computer-oriented and educated in facilitating transactions online, and computer security technology is significantly improved.

4) Investments in all aspects of alternatives to fossil fuels will do increasingly well, especially those involving clean nuclear power. Holdings in thorium properties and thorium mining rights will dramatically increase in value internationally, as thorium becomes acknowledged as one of the safest and "cleanest" nuclear fuel sources. Hybrid automobiles will increase in popularity and proliferation, and electricity will be revisited as a transportation power source.

5) Religious fundamentalism, principally Christian, will find an increasing number of adherents in the G-8 Nations, and particularly in the US. There will be a growing preoccupation with The Book Of Revelations, and the notion of The Apocalypse. Religion will become an increasingly profitable enterprise worldwide.

6) Astrology, mysticism and spiritualism, as well as various occult practices, ideas and beliefs will become increasingly accepted, popular and integrated into mainstream G-8 culture. There will be a growing interest in the study of ancient societies, primitive religions, magic and alchemy.

7) A steeply greater percentage of all social and business interaction will be conducted between persons via web-based teleconferencing and communications than during the past five years. The facilitating technology will continue to improve and decrease in actual cost. In-person meetings will cease to be the norm for smaller, entrepreneurial businesses and many international enterprises. By 2012, most educational programs and business meetings will be conducted in cyberspace.

In closing, I will state that the future cannot be predicted so much as reasonably anticipated through a combination of three evaluative elements:

• THE STUDY OF TECHNOLOGY;


• THE STUDY OF HISTORY;


• THE STUDY OF PSYCHOLOGY.

Thank you for being here with me. Good joss!

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. The photograph above was taken at Winter Solstice. There is relevance here if you look for it purposefully.