Ben Bernanke Speaks In Somber Tones - Douglas Castle Predicts The Effects.
Ben Bernanke Sets A Somber Tone for the U.S. Economic "Recovery." -- Perhaps this is a pre-emptive political strike against allegations of fraud... hmmm.....
Ben Bernanke Sets A Somber Tone for the U.S. Economic "Recovery." -- Perhaps this is a pre-emptive political strike against allegations of fraud... hmmm.....
Dear Colleagues and Friends:
I am not fond of Ben Bernanke, nor of his knee-jerk, symptomatic relief reactions, duplicity and delay policies. In fact, when a prestigious New York magazine named this bailout baron "Man of the Year," for keeping the US out of a "dangerous recession," I had mentioned to a handful of friends (that's about as many as I have) that the award was rather like having an arsonist set fire to your house, watching it burn for awhile, and then running in to rescue one of your five children... and winning a medal for courage. Sadly, many have believed in Bernanke's intrusive policies, taxpayer-crushing bailouts, backroom merger deals to merely forestall the inevitable, his philosophy of borrowing our way out of debt (sounds screwy, no?) and his notably uncharismatic "positive yet cautious" tone. If he's not delusional, he is merely a rather cold-hearted fibber trying to buy the current US economy and the current administration time to somehow "come around" based upon miracles and propaganda.
It's failed.
Banks aren't lending to consumers and small businesses. Joblessness (the true measure of unemployment) continues to climb. Productivity is also decreasing, great minds are leaving the country (as are many jobs), and businesses are seeking other home domiciles in order to 1), get cheaper labor -- the kind where people work for a wage instead of waiting for a government check, and to 2), escape before taxes in the US become impossibly burdensome and back-breaking in order to pay for the government's irresponsible policymaking.
Compounding the problem, is the influence that the US still exerts over the World economy -- It's what I like to refer to as the "Weapons Of Mass Destruction hoakum, trap 'em and choke 'em" routine.
The following news, excerpted from a newsletter issued by David Weiss speaks about about Bernanke's latest, most realistic declaration of the unpleasant truth, as the US slides (as do all major sovereigns) into a double dip recession that is actually a profound, fundamental depression:
Breaking news:
Bernanke slams U.S. economy! What to do ...
| MONEY AND MARKETS » |
Dear Mr. Castle, Global Futurist:
For the first time in many years, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve went before Congress, set aside his rose-colored glasses, dispensed with most of his sugar-coated platitudes and made some hard-hitting statements about the U.S. economy. Bernanke on jobs: "This is the worst labor market since the Great Depression."Bernanke on housing: Bernanke on fears about the future: "Most ... viewed uncertainty about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the majority saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside."Bernanke on tight credit for small businesses: "Bank loans outstanding have continued to contract. Small businesses, which depend importantly on bank credit, have been particularly hard hit."And never forget: All this is coming from a man whose job invariably makes him extremely reluctant to admit to negative trends in any sector at any time — if Bernanke is saying things are bad, you can bet your bottom dollar they're actually far worse. Our recommendation:
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AND NOW, MY PREDICTIONS CONCERNING WHAT THIS ACTUALLY MEANS FOR THE UNITED STATES, AND GLOBALLY (AT A SLIGHT LAG). DOUGLAS CASTLE PROGNOSTICATES:
1. Citizens are buying up weapons and ammunition for both home and street protection in anticipation of rampant crime -- some of them (mostly the militia crowd) are stockpiling military ordnance to defend themselves against a giant government that is growing in its fiscal appetite and its vampirical bloodfest off of the public at a neoplastic rate, unchecked, unstoppable and infinitely powerful.
2. Unemployment (non-government unemployment) will continue to rise as the availablity of credit for smaller business and for consumers shrinks.
3. Occasional upticks in consumer spending will be the sad result of a combination of factors, including:
- Interest rates on bank instruments are too low relative to the real rate of inflation -- there is less incentive to save and more to consume;
- Pension plans and capital markets (principally equities and index-based funds) are either a) too volatile for a person of average cardiac capacity to monitor and tolerate or b) are steadily eroding legitimately-earned principal;
- Consumers buy durable goods on interest-free layaway plans from large stores that are eventually going to go out of business but need to book current sales;
- An increasing portion of spending is going toward gambling-related activities, substance abuse (escapism), and frivolous consumption ["since the world is going to end tomorrow, I might as well buy a pepperoni pizza"];
- The release of new media/communications gadgetry.
4. Cooperative consumer movements and anti-government sentiment will be on the rise as an alternative to and a protest against irresponsible and immensely expensive government doles and metastically-growing, amoral monopolistic conglomerates;
5. The notion of community will begin to return as more public services are weakened or discontinued;
6. The IRS will be all the more vigilant in its efforts to audit, assess and repossess in order to assist the government in narrowing and ever-increasing national debt;
7. The underground (cash economy) will continue to flourish, and become regarded by the general public as more respectable than ever in history;
8. The gap between what banks pay for deposits (very, very little) and what banks will charge for the few loans they make (loaded with costs, fees, points and hidden charges) will continue to widen;
9. The new Financial Reforms will be of no consequence in regulating against massive financial institutional failures, but will create more government jobs and some more work for some of the larger, better-established multipartner law firms;
10. Taxes, fines tolls, tarrifs, surcharges, fees and "mandatory contributions" will increase steadily and lethally during the next two years to cover the costs of minimalist public services and to narrow the federal and state budget deficits;
11. Not-For-Profits will have a very difficult time getting donations -- many will go out of business;
12. Commercial real estate values will continue to decline in a downward "sawtooth" wave;
13. There will be increasing friction between federal and state governments on issues of funds allocation, jurisdiction, constitutionality, regulatory issues, law enforcement and conflicts between laws -- some of these conflicts will result in massive civil unrest, and a generalized sentiment or peception of seeing the federal government as having interests increasingly detrimental to those of the individual states. Some serious showdowns and confrontations will occur;
14. The demographics in the US will shift in favor of peoples of color with limited professional technical skills and education, while educated professional caucausians and established and successful people of color will seek to become expatriates;
15. US involvement in military and nation-building projects throughout the world will continue, with a handful of "contractors" profiting tremendously and with their profits remaining unrepatriated and uninvested in the US markets;
16. All forms of offshore or international investment, trusts and entities will be increasingly scrutinized and regulated against as being "unpatriotic."
17. I believe that a US economic rebound (and never a restoration to its former glory or leadership role) is possible through a very slow process (fueled by American entrepreneurship and foreign investment in the US) which may commence in the second half of 2013 and take in excess of seven years.
18. To add an additional nugget to the apex of a growing governmental cow pie, military efforts, expenditure and loss of life in Afghanistan will increase, as will the likelihood of more aggressive confrontation with Iran. The US presence in the "newly-rebuilt" Iraq will actually increase, but the increase will be in the form of lucrative (to a select few) mercenary and rebuilding engagements.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
Douglas Castle
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NOTE: This Article was originally published in The Global Futurist blog at http://TheGlobalFuturist.blogspot.com
KEY WORDS, TAGS AND TERMS: Bernanke, causes of economic recession, federal reserve system, recession and depression, the capital markets, Douglas Castle, TNNWC, The Omnigadget, The National Networker.
NOTE: This Article was originally published in The Global Futurist blog at http://TheGlobalFuturist.blogspot.com
KEY WORDS, TAGS AND TERMS: Bernanke, causes of economic recession, federal reserve system, recession and depression, the capital markets, Douglas Castle, TNNWC, The Omnigadget, The National Networker.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
The One Constant in a World of Variables
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The One Constant in a World Of Variables
Written by Douglas Castle and originally published in THE GLOBAL FUTURIST (http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/)
I have a propensity to be riled by certain expressions. Three of them have especially bothered me since my childhood. They are:
1. "Hurry up and wait"
2. "The public's memory is short."
3. "The more that things change, the more they remain the same."
They continue to upset me, not only because they all sound sort of contradictory or just plain stupid (that would be #3), but because they call forth painful truths about Human nature. The recurring and recursive patterns of people's and society's behavior over time are very predictable. This makes us a species easily deceived, easily manipulated and dangerously self-destructive.
An observer from outside of our species (I am not thinking of a marmoset or a carp...I am thinking more along the lines of an intellectually-evolved creature with a 1,000-year lifespan from a distant galaxy, far away from midtown Manhattan) could rather easily predict Human responses to various stimuli or environmental changes. This observer would also notice that we [as a sciety or civilization] make very limited progress (think about our dependency on fossil fuels, nuclear proliferation, endless "winnable" wars, senseless fads and fashions, racism, climate change, depletion of resources, extinction of species, impulse purchasing, conspicuous consumption, fear of responsibility, drive-by shootings, Humvees, David Letterman's debauchery, Oprah Winfrey's weight...and so on) because we Humans generally have very limited attention spans, very limited conscious powers of recall, and a love of escapism, distraction and irresponsibility.
The Financial Times discusses the dubious progress that the global powers have made in pulling the industrialized world out of the current financial recession, and the dubious progress we've made in terms of changing any of the causal factors associated with the recession. In brief, we keep walking into the same tree, over and over again. One gets a headache just thinking about it.
The one constant in a world of variables is Human nature -- and aside from the limitations of physics, physiology, and certain unforeseen occurences (i.e., a large meteor impacting the Earth), Human nature is the most significant variable; or rather, the most immutable constant.
As one of my students remarked years ago (when I was teaching at Hofstra University and discussing the causality of banking collapses), "Wow. People are more constant than Pi." He was indeed a wise, if not articulate, fellow. He later went on to work for the prestigious firm of Merrill Lynch.
Please have a look at the Financial Times Newsletter. Just click on the link below:
http://us.update.ft.com/?key=3rft4qk8dkM2v2gs8r3t3kv7nM
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
The One Constant in a World Of Variables
Written by Douglas Castle and originally published in THE GLOBAL FUTURIST (http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/)
I have a propensity to be riled by certain expressions. Three of them have especially bothered me since my childhood. They are:
1. "Hurry up and wait"
2. "The public's memory is short."
3. "The more that things change, the more they remain the same."
They continue to upset me, not only because they all sound sort of contradictory or just plain stupid (that would be #3), but because they call forth painful truths about Human nature. The recurring and recursive patterns of people's and society's behavior over time are very predictable. This makes us a species easily deceived, easily manipulated and dangerously self-destructive.
An observer from outside of our species (I am not thinking of a marmoset or a carp...I am thinking more along the lines of an intellectually-evolved creature with a 1,000-year lifespan from a distant galaxy, far away from midtown Manhattan) could rather easily predict Human responses to various stimuli or environmental changes. This observer would also notice that we [as a sciety or civilization] make very limited progress (think about our dependency on fossil fuels, nuclear proliferation, endless "winnable" wars, senseless fads and fashions, racism, climate change, depletion of resources, extinction of species, impulse purchasing, conspicuous consumption, fear of responsibility, drive-by shootings, Humvees, David Letterman's debauchery, Oprah Winfrey's weight...and so on) because we Humans generally have very limited attention spans, very limited conscious powers of recall, and a love of escapism, distraction and irresponsibility.
The Financial Times discusses the dubious progress that the global powers have made in pulling the industrialized world out of the current financial recession, and the dubious progress we've made in terms of changing any of the causal factors associated with the recession. In brief, we keep walking into the same tree, over and over again. One gets a headache just thinking about it.
The one constant in a world of variables is Human nature -- and aside from the limitations of physics, physiology, and certain unforeseen occurences (i.e., a large meteor impacting the Earth), Human nature is the most significant variable; or rather, the most immutable constant.
As one of my students remarked years ago (when I was teaching at Hofstra University and discussing the causality of banking collapses), "Wow. People are more constant than Pi." He was indeed a wise, if not articulate, fellow. He later went on to work for the prestigious firm of Merrill Lynch.
Please have a look at the Financial Times Newsletter. Just click on the link below:
http://us.update.ft.com/?key=3rft4qk8dkM2v2gs8r3t3kv7nM
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
Saturday, March 14, 2009
THE TRUTH ABOUT ETHICS AND RESPONSIBILITY IN BIG BUSINESS
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Dear Friends:
Dear Friends:You can read a fascinating article about the modern day "Pirates Of the Caribbean" by clicking on http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15AIG.html?_r=1&hp.
A very brief synopsis follows for those of you who are impatient, or pressed for time in your struggles to find employment, pay debts and keep your lives (and sanity) together:
Breaking News Alert: The New York Times, Saturday, March 14, 2009 -- 8:23 PM ET-----
A.I.G. to Pay $100 Million in Bonuses After Huge Bailout
Despite being bailed out with more than $170 billion from theTreasury and Federal Reserve, the American International Group is preparing to pay about $100 million in bonuses to executives in the same business unit that brought the company to the brink of collapse last year. [End of summary]
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After Merrill Lynch's pilferage, and numerous other widely-known and shameless acts of incredible selfishness and brazen wastefulness, this should not strike anybody as particularly unexpected. Rest assured that there will be some balking on the part of numerous regulators and the usual background white noise of the public "outcry," but that these generous rewards for fiscal irresponsibility, gross misconduct and profligate lifestyles of shameless entitlement will be paid out in full to each of the crew members. Rest assured that there will be no major civil investigations or criminal proceedings brought against any of these payees, or of the government policymakers and politicians who have failed to stop this leakage in the once-proud American Republic. The mythical character Gordon Gekko was a petty thief by comparison.
Those who have violated the basic tenets of moral decency shall be richly rewarded. Those who have been displaced, dispossed, foreclosed upon and destroyed emotionally, as well as fiscally -- perhaps the American Public At Large -- will continue to 1) be punished, and 2) to pick up the tab for the unindicted criminals and social miscreants who victimized them. Liars, thieves, con-artists, hypocrites, as well as their cadre of aiders, abetters and enablers, shall live more comfortably than ever before, while the impotent, disenchanted, war-weary people receive no relief, and ever-heightening abuse. For some, the United States was once indeed perceived as the land of opportunity. The once highly-regarded notions of fairness and justice have been exiled, leaving a sorrowful vaccuum in their wake. I am in mourning for the United States, the country that my grandparents came to to find opportunity, a fair chance at success, human dignity and constitutional justice.
Banks are getting out of the business of all consumer and commercial lending. They are cutting back on credit card credit limits, without reasonable notice and due cause, and have the unmitigated temerity to charge good, paying customers "surprise" over limit fees. New credit solicitations are going out, but they are purely a public relations ploy. If banks no longer finance either production or consumption, they are merely safe deposit deposit boxes with overly-large offices. They are worse than useless -- they are economically destructive. But their executives are being rewarded with colossal bonuses and an absence of controls, oversight or regulation. Jeez...don't you wish you owned a bank?
Insurance companies are getting out of the business of writing insurance policies or paying reasonable claims. This means that your premiums are merely an extorted, one-sided annuity for the companies that are supposed to protect you when you are ill, unable to earn income, unable to pay your bills, or to collect on debts owed you by defaulting creditors. If you become disabled or die, you cannot count on them to provide promised payments to your family to permit their survival -- and if you have a medical procedure, regardless of how critically necessary, expect to do battle with their legal counsel in order to be reimbursed for the inflated and exhorbitant costs of your treatment. Like the banks, they are in the business of stealing your money, and never returning it to you. And like the banks, their executives continue to be richly rewarded.
Automobile companies, long-known to be inefficient and low on quality, want government subsidies (and are receiving them) so that they may continue to pay out large bonuses to key individuals while they actually decrease production of automobiles and continue to layoff thousands of workers.
It has become virtually impossible to draw the line, any line, between an incompetent and ethically-compromised government, and the heads of the large corporations that control them like mad puppeteers. These carpetbaggers are filling their pockets and every other available container with all of the money that they can take.
It comes down to bahavioral psychology. Simply, when there are no rewards for ethics and responsibility, people, particularly those in power, will abandon them for other, more remunerative pursuits.
Capitalism, without any parameters of ethics and responsibility, has a propensity to self-destruct and deteriorate to a form of feudalism. It is happening today. There are even some who believe that the stage is being set for revolution in the United States. I find this prospect very frightening.
Capitalism is not the enemy, per se...it is the perpetrators, both in government and in corporate America who need to be brought to account.
Within these next few years, the only people who will be left standing in this science-fiction desertscape will be 1) the thieves and miscreants who are busily stealing at the expense of the national and global economy, and 2) the few entrepreneurs and networkers among us.
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Neither the government or the large corporations can save us. Look to the ingenuity of the entrepreneurs, the business visionaries and the newly-emerging leaders of small business and private entrepreneurship to rebuild from the rubble.
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
p.s. Please click on http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com and subscribe to receive my blogs via RSS feed or by daily EMAIL. Thank you, one and all.
p.p.s. If you do not currently subscribe to THE NATIONAL NETWORKER, 1) subscribe now (it's free, and fabulous), and 2) choose wheteher you would like to receive your updates via RSS feed or by daily EMAIL. Again, thank you.
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globalism, CFR, NGO, UN, WTO, IMF, central bank, outsourcing, offshoring, capital markets, import, export, international trade, strategic alliances, e-commerce, entrepreneurship, social networking, banking, finance, trade, ventures, business, securities, stock exchanges, indexes, futurism, trends, citizen ambassadorship, enterprise, capitalism, international politics, commodities, prime rate, LIBOR, foreign currencies, foreign exchange, blogs, blogging, bloggers, aol, google, yahoo, msn, AP, news, media alerts, world government, world governments, international affairs, treaties, tariffs, trade restrictions, marketing, advertising, business development, arbitrage, obtaining capital, promotion, publicity, EU, NATO, military affairs, government regulation, trade restrictions, liquidity crisis, business opportunities, web-based businesses, communication, communications, technology, intelligence, embassies, consulates, business resources, Douglas Castle,The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, international politics, elections, time management, cyberspace, AI, energy, industry, productivity, Mixx, Digg, Technorati, Sphere, Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, LinkedIn, advertising, economics, strategy, management, cooperation, widgets, blidgets, links, incoterms, CCH, UCC, freight forwarding, custom house brokers, diversity, employment, culture, micro-loans, technological convergence, trends, financial planning, FOREX, futures, stock index, inflation, recession, sub-contracting, Department of Commerce, CIOF, the next generation, amnesty, humanitarianism, foreign aid, philanthropy, charity, LinkedIn, singularity, transportation, IT, intelligence, complexity theory, energy sources, shortages, climatic change, pop-culture, survivalism, mergers and acquisitions...
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