THE IRONY OF POLLS

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Dear Friends:



We are all too familiar with the notion of the self-fulfilling prophesy -- a fascinating psychological phenomenon (used here in the negative context) whereby we are gripped by a fearful anticipation to such a great extent that we subconsciously help to make it come to fruition through our defensive responses and our instinctual, reflexive behavior.

Extrapolating and philosophizing just a bit (simultaneously!), it might be said that the future will be just as wonderful or just as horrific as we imagine that it will be.

In Bruce Klein's NOVAMENTE blog (there is a link to his blog in the Links section of this one), Bruce cites the top 10 Existential Risks, and asks, indirectly, that we prioritize which ones we would rate as the most important/ worrisome by how much money (based upon a theoretical total budget of $100 million) we would choose to allocate to researching each of them. Simply: the greater the perceived threat, the more money we would be willing to apportion to researching it. It is presented as a poll, and I look forward to seeing the results.

The risks, unranked, but ordered in the construction matrix of the poll, are listed below:

BIOLOGICAL (viruses, etc.)
SPACE THREATS (asteroids, etc.)
ENVIRONMENTAL (global warming, etc.)
EXTRATERRESTRIAL (invasion, etc.)
NANOTECHNOLOGY (gray goo, etc.)
NUCLEAR (holocaust, etc.)
GOVERNMENTS (abusive power, etc.)
SIMULATION SHUT DOWN (assumes we live in one, etc.)
SUPERINTELLIGENT AI (unfriendly, etc.)
OTHER:________________

There are several statistical biases inherent in this type of a poll that emerge from a confusing confluence of two effects -- the actual nature of how the question is framed (e.g., the manner in which you ask a question, or request an answer), and human nature, with its idiosycracies and encultured conformities.

A brief look at some of these interesting bias points:

1. The assumption that all of the risks presented are truly the "Top Ten", or at least the "Top Nine" and a write-in.

2. The inclination by many prospective respondents to inherently view the likelihood or severity of the risks in a declining order, with the most dangerous being first on the list. We all have a tendency to do this, by the way.

3. The implicit tendency to assume that the more money we allocate to studying a problem, the more likely it is to be solved. <"We need your donations to find a cure!">

4. The implicit understanding that any study, in fact, can or will yield a solution of some sort...or even have any effect on the possibility of preventing the occurrence of some disaster, or, at least, mitigating the damage that it wreaks.

5. The natural propensity to mitigate or "hedge" answers, by a kind of diversification. Simply put, if I truly believe (for the sake of illustration) that ENVIRONMENTAL risks (either Global Warming, or having to listen to Al Gore lecture about Global Warming) are the only ones which we can proactively short-circuit via research, I will still not put all of the $100 million into the ENVIRONMENTAL category; I will spread that money around a bit, because I have been indoctrinated with the cultural paradigm that diversification = safety.

I would suggest that you visit Bruce's blog, and participate in the poll. I think that simply designing a poll which yields metrics undistorted by "human nature error" is something worth studying, too.

One final observation about the poll, or about any poll, is that if the category OTHER is given as an alternative, many respondents will allocate some of the $100 million to that category automatically, because they are subconsciously trying to address an ingrained perception that we are always "leaving something out". OTHER becomes the "just in case..." hedge. Not unlike when you jiggle the mailbox chute, or check your doorknob, or look behind you to be certain that your car's lights are off.

I wonder if there is a way to segregate people's actual thoughts from the way in which they express them when confronted with a poll format.

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Now, to the business of The Global Futurist. We are going to be seeing more of the following:

1. Decisions, both in business and in politics being made by the use of public polls.

2. Polls being used as a propagandist tool to incite concern, fear, or to simply divert attention away from other issues or actions.

3. Polls as the primary horsemen of the self-fulfilling prophesy.

4. Increased reliance on polling and a corresponding decreased reliance on expertise.

5. Published polling results supplanting creative thought and innovation.


Keep watching. On a serious note, it causes me a feeling of impending loss when I think of the possibility that people may ultimately wait for poll results before they formulate opinions of their own. Perhaps we might consider spending some of Bruce's hypothetical $100 million on ways to preserve spontaneity and originality.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

911

OIL - THE NEW CURRENCY OF CHOICE?

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Dear Friends:



As of the date of this post, oil prices are hovering at close to $100 per barrel. All products and services which require transportation as part of the delivery process are being forced to endure higher transportation costs, which are, as is customary, being passed along to the consumer. The world economy is still quite oil dependent. The capital markets, the securities exchanges, and many other indicators of economic stability and strength are showing the strain.

With the Chinese and numerous other oil-producing nations loudly rattling their sabers about the prospect of accepting other currencies (and perhaps even excluding the U.S. Dollar) in exchange for their oil, this bodes poorly for the value of the U.S. Dollar. While it bodes somewhat better in the shorter term for the Euro and some other currencies which compete with the U.S. Dollar, the ultimate effect will be the creation of uncertainty at the capriciousness of the oil-producing and exporting countries, and a net devaluation of all currencies in a rush for currency diversification among oil purchasers eager to hedge their bets.

Anticipate the rise to prominence of several types of products during the course of these next 24 months:

1. A spate of oil hedge contracts and other pre-emptive cost insurances;

2. A spate of currency de-valuation insurance products;

3. An upsurge in the type, number and volume of diversified currency funds and fund products available in the U.S. and elsewhere;

4. An upsurge in the prices of shares in publicly-traded "alternative energy" stocks worldwide;

5. Some token tax and other economic incentives to be promulgated by the US Government to encourage the development of alternatives to fossil fuels;

6. An increasing number of exporters (into the U.S.) unwilling to accept the U.S. Dollar as a preferred form of payment;

7. A number of innovative financial instruments which are not only backed by, but which are denominated in gallons or barrels of oil;

8. A worldwide revisitation of the notion of barter.

9. Escalating hostilities between nations which are net producers of oil and those nations which are net consumers of oil. Veiled threats couched in overtures at compromise. Ironically, this exercise will be noisy but relatively ineffective for several simple reasons, including the facts that: A) Too many unholy alliances exist between multinational companies in both camps; B) Too many net consumers of oil are also heavily invested in oil as an asset and a store of value; C) The wide-scale use of any viable, and useable substitute for fossil fuels is likely quite far off in the future (due to the preceding conflicts, and many other reasons, as is so often the case when so many parties are more deeply invested in the problem than any true solution).

BLACK GOLD? I THINK SO.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. Should I fill my gas tank or pay my mortgage? Perhaps I should simply consolidate, and live in my car.

TRENDS TO NOTE, EVALUATE, AND ACT UPON

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Dear Friends:

There are several trends worth your immediate attention, and I have outlined them below for your information and use.

A particularly unimaginative boss who had mistakenly hired me some years ago said, in a typical moment of cliched monologue, "If you fail to plan, you might as well plan to fail." He was, of course, correct. In fact, cliches do generally embody some component of logical folk wisdom.

I would ask that you note these trends, think about how they may ultimately impact your personal and professional life, and then incorporate them into your planning process.



1. Online communities, interactive resources, referral services and networking groups (social and professional) such as FaceBook, LinkedIn, eCademy and MyWorkster are proliferating at a staggering rate. Creating a network of thousands of contacts is becoming easier and easier, and the speed of growth in accumulating sheer numbers of contacts is accelerating. Some unresolved issues which need to be addressed in order to optimize the advantage of utilizing this medium continue to remain bothersome and poorly addressed, even by the biggest names in networking. I invite their input, as always:

• How do I best (most efficiently) interface with these contacts?;


• How do I best keep in touch with these contacts;


• How do I induce these contacts to actually transact business with me?

Whoever can answer these questions will be a great catalyst for a sea change in the way that all business is conducted. Whoever applies this knowledge will become wealthy.

I invite you to take a look at Adam Kovitz' THE NATIONAL NETWORKER. He has a uniquely utilitarian approach to networking that seems to separate him from the rest of the name collectors (akin to autograph seekers) who seem to dominate this medium without telling us how to utilize it. Visit http://www.thenationalnetworker.com/ and http://thenationalnetworker.blogspot.com/. Please send Adam my best. Maybe he'll let me write a post for him someday.

2. Artificial Intelligence development is moving along through multiple channels, and at a faster pace than many conservative folks had ever expected. I am always fascinated by Bruce Klein's blog on the subject, at http://www.novamente.net/bruce. With apologies to Heisenberg, Jung and a host of other smart fellows, Bruce is doing something which I greatly admire...he is aggressively inviting bright individuals (and even a few of my former fraternity brothers) to participate in an open forum regarding every aspect of AI. When one attracts and aggregates a great number of researchers, invites them to interact, and constantly promulgates all of their findings, the probability of a significant breakthrough is increased. My New Age-oriented friends call this the "Group Mind" or "Mastermind" concept. Rosicrucians consider it to be a variation on the cosmic consciousness theme. I believe that human minds, like nuclear reactors, can reach a certain critical mass from which a brilliant idea emerges (instead of an explosion or a meltdown). The latest is that online worlds (the virtual worlds in which our computer-linked children spend so much of their time) being used as AI incubators. This may well ramp up the pace at which AI develops, becomes widely accepted, and becomes more inextricably interwoven in everyday life than anyone had ever imagined. Gaming is a fabulous educational tool, as well. Visit http://edweb.sdsu.edu/courses/edtec670/edgames to learn more about this trend. Science Fiction author Orson Scott Card was truly prescient with his novel, ENDER'S GAME.

3. The virtual office is not only here, but has become quite socially acceptable. A combination of outsourcing, telecommunications, and Internet technology have created an unlimited world, laden with fascinating possibilities unconstrained by space or time. Economically, this phenomenon is lowering the cost of entry for entrepreneurs to compete with the better-established firms in many industry sectors, and creating intensely specialized vertical market competition. Additionally, companies are becoming increasing de-centralized in terms of their management, and commercial real estate (principally office buildings) values may be subject to a downward pricing adjustment. By way of example, visit http://www.virtualmanagementconceptsllc.com/.

4. Personal Branding has become all the rage in marketing and career management. the ultimat objective is to make a person, with his/her unique set of talent and abilities, into a "brand". Oprah Winfrey and Martha Stewart are living avatars of this phenomenon. with the use of the Internet, this type of opertaion is becoming increasingly inexpensive and easy. Career coaches and personal brand managers abound today, helping us to "market ourselves" and to "accentuate our differentiating characteristics". You may someday find yourself purchasing a fine pair of Douglas Castle socks. Visit Anne Warfield's website at http://www.impressionmanagement.com/ just to gather a quick glance of one aspect of personal branding.

5. Stress (as well as related anxiety and depression) and overweight are affecting an increasing percentage of the world's population. Stress-reduction and weight control are two rapidly growing fields of interest, and a great deal of profit will be made by some imaginative entrepreneurs who can address these maladies successfully, and deliver remedies to an ever-increasing market population.

All the best.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. HAVE YOU JOINED THE INTERNAL ENERGY PLUS Online Community? Click on http://groups.yahoo.com/group/INTERNAL_ENERGY_PLUS/

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)

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Dear Friends:

Please read my previous post of several days ago regarding EIGHT NOTEWORTHY TRENDS. The information in that post is, I believe, very much on target, and more than a little frightening.

On another front, as a long-standing student and fan of Intelligence Theory, Complexity Theory and the notion of Artificial Intelligence (AI), I am pleased to extend to you, for your consideration, an invitation that was sent to me by Professor Stan Franklin regarding a call for papers on AI. In fact, you can download our email correspondence by clicking on www.savefile.com/files/1029649 (and by then clicking on the "DOWNLOAD" button).

Information about the FIRST CONFERENCE ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, in terms of presenters, parameters, agenda and other particulars can be found by simply clicking on www.agi-08.org/ .

I will be in touch with you soon.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. The above photo (taken through the Hubble Telescope) is of a section of space containing our Milky Way Galaxy, as well as a number of other galaxies. The irony is in the fact that I can contain such an incredibly vast space in such a tiny picture frame. Of course, if I were to enlarge the photo, the resolution would degrade exponentially. By poetic analogy, this demonstrates that perspective must be obtained telescopically, by backing away from small and rapid things, and observing things from the greatest possible distance over the greatest possible length of time. In this manner, we often find that things which look chaotic up close are actually parts of greater patterns. Extrapolating to social analogy, if we do not constantly refer back to the big picture, we can never be clear on what we are seeing, or of the ultimate impact of what we are doing. If I launch a projectile 2 degrees off course, the further it travels, the further from its intended target it will fly. Miniscule changes with giant effects.

EIGHT NOTEWORTHY TRENDS.

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Dear Friends:

There are at least eight trends which should be taken into consideration in all of your longer-range business and personal planning:

1. NOT-FOR-PROFITS, NGOs (Non-Government Organizations) AND OTHER TYPES OF "ALTERNATIVE FORM" GROUPS WILL RISE IN PROMINENCE AND INFLUENCE:

The profit motive, e.g., the drive for the acquisition and accumulation of wealth, has historically been the dominion of large corporations and powerful monarchs. Corporations have generally thrived as income- and wealth-creation vehicles because of various types of legislated insulation from directors' liability, favorable tax treatment and ready access to the capital markets to fuel expansion and increase value for stakeholders and certain insiders; monarchs, usually by a megalomaniacal claim of divine entitlement coupled with a promise of protection (most often from their own brutality), have simply collected tax or tribute from every person too slow to run and too powerless to protest.



With Sarbanes-Oxley, increasingly vituperative prosecutions of corporate officers and directors, increased regulatory reporting and accountability, and a growing public perception that corporations are faceless devils wholly bereft of sensitivity or morality, the for-profit corporation (especially whose shares are publicly-traded) is looking less and less appealing as a form of business entity.



Anticipate a significant increase in the number, wealth and power of such alternative not-for-profit organizational forms as public foundations, charitable trusts, cooperatives, informal clubs, religious groups, fraternal orders and membership societies during these next five years. These groups will dominate the political process (domestically and internationally), the legislative processes (domestically and via international treaty), consumerism, and ultimately, the re-allocation of wealth internationally. They are easily created, not tightly governed under a particular body of law (with the exception of public foundations, some charities, and a few others), free of the need for shareholders, able to maintain some level of privacy, and are unfettered by the outward semblance of a "for profit" motive.



We are already witnessing a tremendous increase in the activity levels of internet-based networking groups and online communities, which are become a social and business milieu unto themselves. They are relatively unregulated, inexpensive and simple to form and operate, and fabulously efficient int terms of accelerating the contact-formation process. You might want to contribute your Rolodex to the Smithsonian.

2. SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION WILL BECOME MUCH MORE CHALLENGING:

Mechanical and "organic" search engine optimization can be expected to become far more difficult as search enginesrobots, crawlers, and other sensory organs become more sensitive to recognizing meaningful words in relevance and context, and more discriminatory against contrived approaches to SEO, such as "invisible ink" programs, keyword stuffing, excessive word repetition, and other approaches. Ultimately, prominence in the search engine rankings will have to be obtained by increasing readership through compelling and high-utility website and blog content.

Increased readership (e.g., clicking activity) will be gleaned through recognition, recommendation referencing and old-fashioned campaigning. As search engines become "smarter", and develop greater discriminatory capabilities, expect an increase in the content quality of the top-ranked sites, and an increasing gap in terms of success between well-constructed sites and catchphrase-laden "exhibitionist" or "novelty" sites. Advancement in search engine rankings based upon merit might actually replace technological darwinism. (Note: Have you noticed that I have switched shades of blue in this text? I did it quite by accident, and I think that I will just leave it as it is, since this is my blog -- I only hope that I don't invite "blog text color consistency regulations" on the off-chance that some literate legislator sees this post.)

3. BE "GREEN" AND EARTH-FRIENDLY (LEST YOU AND YOUR ORGANIZATION BECOME COMPOST!):

Mother Earth is our friend (in between tsunamis, earthquakes, tornados and the occasional outbreak of an epidemic or the visitation by a plague). Some savvy folks, without mentioning Al Gore, by name, as well as an increasing number of environmental protectionist groups have made the public (and, by the power of polling) extraordinarily fearful of "environmentally unfriendly" activities. The environmental lobby is growing rapidly, and pervasively.



Both regular civilians and companies (as corporate citizens) are increasingly taking actions to be designated as "green" or "environmentally-friendly," through recycling, re-foresting, creating re-usable items, and a host of conspicuous public relations ploys. Whether or not you believe this is merely political hokum, you had best make efforts to become recognized (like Starbucks) as being environmentally conscious, and green.

Consumers will give you preference (especially younger consumers with a higher level of social consciousness and unjaded idealism), and regulators, protectionist groups and other well-intended (albeit meddlesome) parties will not be as readily inclined to do damage to you. On the bright side, some of these groups might even commend you. It is becoming socially fashionable to be environmentally conscious. Most of what you read today is post-consumer content... Oops...what I meant is that it is printed on post-consumer material.


4. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL MAKE QUANTUM STRIDES

Artificial Intelligence (which, ironically, has as its earliest descendant the human intelligence that initiated the first AI programming) will make tremendous advances during the course of these next 30 to 50 years, largely due to breakthroughs fueled by new insights into intelligence theory, complexity theory, nanotechnology and commercial and government applications and refinements of data mining and information analysis technology (a combination of pattern recognition, rule creation and generalization, outcome prediction and recursive system corrections and modifications based upon validity of results).



My guess is that at some time between 2050 and to 2070, AI, in all of its applications and guises, will replace the human intelligence that wished it into being and nurtured it. It will be perceived as more reliable in every aspect than its fallible and emotionally-driven flesh and blood counterpart and grandparent, as it will be shown to be a powerful tool with limitless energy and no need for cigarette or coffee breaks. Without referencing any work of science fiction in particular, the issue will eventually become that of who is the servant and who is the master? I will not share with you how I would bet, if I were a gambling type of fellow.

Bruce Klein writes a wonderful blog which can be accessed at www.novamente.net/bruce_blog, which addresses many interesting issues and developments in the field of AI. He is conducting a poll about when (in terms of decades) AI will achieve parity with the basic functionality of the human mind. Read his blog, track his poll results, and draw your own conclusions from his collected data. I enjoyed participating in the survey, and was honored to be asked for my opinion. View his blog and let me know what you think. He has a very intelligent and articulate readership. As do I .


5. MARKET AND IDEA TESTING AND POLLING WILL BECOME MORE SOPHISTICATED, MORE INTERACTIVE, MORE EFFECTIVE, AND FAR MORE COMMONPLACE:



Test marketing and trial runs based upon free samples, giveaways, intuition, conventional marketing wisdom, "breakthrough ideas" and individual innovation will be supplanted by a very different fundamental approach to testing and pre-marketing: interactive polling and surveying through the e-media. In this way, the targeted consumer market (e.g., the prospective cusomers) will actually have a say in the development of the product, and will actually have an emotional investment and a feeling of proprietorship in the finished product. This psychology is exemplified by the "wiki" phenomenon. For an eloquent example, just put WIKIPEDIA into any search engine.

It is delightful and ironic to think that the consumers will ultimately be the designers and suppliers of the product which they themselves will pay for. (I apologize for ending the preceding sentence with a preposition).



6. EXECUTIVE (PRIVATE LUXURY) AIR TRAVEL WILL BECOME FAR MORE COMMONPLACE:

Due to the increasingly time-consuming and humiliating experience of going through airport security prior to boarding any commercial airlines flight, executive air travel by privately-owned and operated executive transport companies is already on the rise. You can expect this trend to continue as world markets become more competitive, and airport anti-terrorist security protocols become increasingly stringent and unpleasant.

7. THE FOCUS ON THE TREATMENT OF OVERWEIGHT AND OBESITY WILL CHANGE:

At present, the treatment of overweight and obesity is focused on diet (nutrition), exercise (fitness), medication (diet pills and nutritional supplementation) and bariatric surgery (gastric or duodenal bypass surgery), for both adults and children. These are "generic" means of addressing the symptoms after considerable suffering has already occurred. Within the next three to five years, the focus will shift to:

• earlier-stage testing (genetics and endocrinology);
• metabolic typing and testing (look at www.sotmary.com and www.manhattanmetabolic.com);
• non-invasive and endoscopic approaches to digestive tract reconfiguration (a company called Obesity Technologies, Inc. is developing one of these technologies);
• finely-targeted electrical stimulation or suppression of various parts of the brain which are involved in appetite (i.e., the hippocampus), and parts of the stomach and digestive tract (i.e., various nerves controlling endocrine and other functions);
• hypnotherapy and NLP (Neurolinguistic Programming).

From a humanitarian perspective, I think that it is a wonderful idea to 1) predict and determine causality and apprehend the problem through early intervention, and to 2) stop shaming and blaming the victims or sufferers for certain aspects of their overweight and obesity which might truly be beyond their ability to control.

8. ASTROLOGY AND ASTROLOGICAL PLANNING WILL RISE TO PROMINENCE AND BECOME AN ACCEPTED MEANS OF PERSONAL AND BUSINESS PLANNING:

Famous former first lady Nancy Reagan would not let former president Ronald Reagan attend meetings, schedule appointments, make policy decisions or use the executive washroom (perhaps a slight exaggeration) without first consulting her astrologer as to the optimality of the timing. Today, a number of major fund managers and advisors make buy and sell decisions for their portfolios valued at (in the aggregate) hundreds of billions of dollars based upon the alignment of the heavenly bodies. Some of these managers have actually become quite open about it. Expect more utilization and open recognition of astrology as a decisionmaking tool in business. "Astrology -- it's not just for matchmakers anymore."

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

FIVE TO PONDER.

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Dear Friends:

The post is titled "Five To Ponder". Admittedly, it sounds like the title of a cheap thriller --not unlike those books we see 'everyone else' reading on the train. The fact, which you may consider physical law, is that the future will indeed come...whether we fastidiously prepare for it, or proactively shape it, or become fossilized under its unstoppable, marching feet. These five items are worth thinking about. And, sooner or later, you will choose to act upon them, or they will act upon you, your business, and your life.

1. OUTSOURCING AND TELECOMMUTING

The G-8 nations in general, and, in particular, the United States, are outsourcing an increasing percentage of their operations to foreign countries, taking advantage of the favorable arbitrage in labor costs. While the nations receiving the bulk of this contracting largess will be changing as their labor pricing structures adjust to meet demand, the tendency to outsource will be here for a long time to come. Telecommuting through the limitless realm of cyberspace is making this prospect increasingly viable to the point of being irresistible. In five to ten years, what will the term "corporate headquarters" mean? In ten to fifteen years, what will the term "geography" mean? The current construct of "country of origin" is already a vestigial anachronism.

2. DE-NATIONALIZATION FROM THE G-8

The increasing regulatory complexity of conducting business in the G-8 nations, particularly the English-speaking ones, combined with the voracious propensity in these civilized lands to prosecute "corporate" criminals (where then pen is perceived as lethal a weapon as is the sword) for an ever-increasing compendium of nebulously-defined crimes will lead to a massive exodus of corporate charters and head offices to less-sophisticated (e.g., more "commerce-friendly"), hungrier jurisdictions. Just speculating...this could also fuel the increasingly evident flight of capital and employment opportunities from the venerable G-8. The notion of "Free Enterprise" is becoming increasingly hazy. In certain circles, the phrase is deemed politically incorrect.

3. CO-OPETITION NETWORKING

With the increasing prevalence, power and sophistication of the Internet, very little remains secret or inaccessible. Consumers are dictating to an increasing field of emerging vendors precisely what products and services they want, and just what they are willing to pay. The most successfully suppliers will be those who are able to refer customers and co-opt assignments. The best networkers will be the newest addition to the pantheon of the world's richest. Landowners, rights-holders, and traders of all stripes will have to make way for a new generation of shamelessly aggressive networkers. Leveraging of knowledge and contacts, and alliances of former adversaries will replace the hide-and-seek, divide-and-conquer ethic of traditional-style competition. Malcolm Gladwell, an inspired visionary, may have to provide additional place settings at the table for Adam Kovitz, Thomas Power, Jay Deragon and others. Depending upon the menu, Douglas Castle may even join them at the feast. As a businessperson, which end of the fork will you be on? Co-opetition.

4. DATA-DEPENDENCY DOMINATION PARANOIA

I am delighted to report that I have an incredible amount of data storage space in my gmail account. If I wanted to, I could store all of my documents, data, photographs, graphics and other information off-site (e.g., not on my hard drive) thanks to the lads at Google. That's precisely why I opened the account in the first place. And now, Yahoo! is offering me virtually unlimited storage capacity, too! All of this -- for free. Websites, blogs, calendars, financial records, personal information...we sure are trusting these colossal companies with quite a bit of valuable stuff. Hmmmm....

5. THE INWARD EXPLORATION

The human mind is an amazing thing. Its abilities, its capacities its processes are vastly unexplored terrain. Ironically, the increased development of information technologies and intelligence theories will lead us back to the ghost in the machine -- the Human Mind. How we learn, and increasing our ability to learn, and to think will become increasingly objects of exploration and fascination. The mind is an amazing playing field; more than in the physical realm, it is where we live. The study of learning and the study of thought will be tremendous areas of pioneering as a resurgence in curiousity about natural, or "organic" intelligence and the human potential movement seizes the imaginations of our species. Just take a look at the increasing proportion of bookstore and catalogue space being allocated to "self-improvement" and related subjects. After being out of our minds for so long, it raises a smile to think that we may be getting back into them. Intelligent people enjoy irony. Do you?

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. Click on this link (from a very unlikely source) for some fascinating and insightful comments about the future: www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc-futr.htm#quotes

TRENDS TO WATCH...

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Dear Friends:





During the coming weeks and months, there are a number of areas that I will be watching and reporting about in detailed postings on this blog. This is merely a preliminary listing of subjects to be covered and trends to be tracked, and I welcome other culturists, economists, political pundits, social researchers, scientists, bloggers and thinkers of all types to suggest topics which you would like to see covered and trends that you would like to see monitored and reported about. Your input is critical, and will be given due consideration. You may comment directly on any post (e.g., right on this site), or send your information to me directly at FreeDECastle001@yahoo.com. Expect a prompt response. Please do not burden me with apocalytic speculation and other suppositions and whinings about the end of the world -- when the end of the world does indeed arrive, I will simply stop posting...and you will probably have to stop complaining as well. It's only fair.


On a serious note though, for the time being, and for the foreseeable future, I will post as if the world were a going concern, and that my readers are reasonably intelligent, inquisitive and proactive persons who want to prepare for the future and to benefit by applying new information to their decisionmaking rather than stand idly by and watch the future turn into the past.

Some of the selected chart targets are categorized below, in no particular order of priority or importance:


*Privacy, piracy, identity theft, data mining, intrusive technologies, database accumulation, movement tracking, coding, profiling, recordkeeping and reporting, smartcarding, RFID, scanning;

*Advancement of women, minorities, ethnic groups, economic classes in business, consumerism and politics;

*Outsourcing and offshoring trends;

*Internationalism and treaty-formation;

*Technological advances;

*Changes in the regulatory environment and compliance requirements;

*Emerging and declining economies and countries;

*Shifting world demographics;

*Changing belief systems and "conventional wisdom";

*Education and employment trends;

*Culture and consumerism;

*Economic, trade, commodities FOREX, interest and monetary trends and implications;

*Changes in qualification, behavioral and other social standards;

*Movement tracking -- Environmentalism, Religious Fundamentalism, Political Action Groups, NGOs and other groups, clubs and fraternal orders;

*International and intranational alliances in formation, as well as wars and animosities fomenting;

*Industry domination, multinational collusion;

*Individuals and companies on the rise or decline;

*Developments in healthcare, medical treatment, wellness, longevity, the quality of life and the Human condition;

*Longer-term investment trends.

I am optimistic that these posts will be information-intensive and highly useful. Where appropriate, I will hyperlink to other blogs and websites of interest which provide meaningful and credible detail about any of the subjects covered. And I will not waste your time...as we never truly know just how much we have of it.

In a departure from my characteristically antisocial solo style, I will absolutely invite and encourage guest bloggers and interviewees to contribute to postings, and will give full attribution to every contributor. I am anticipating acting as the de facto coordinator and moderator of a massive group effort. It is also wise to bear in mind that trends, when disclosed early-on in the appropriate media by credible sources, often turn into self-fulfilling prophesies. In aggressively promulgating a prediction of the future, we may, in fact, be creating it!

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. The character depicted in the upper left-hand corner of this post translates (loosely) to "book". There is great significance and relevance to the use of this particular character in this post -- I leave it to my insightful and intelligent readers to determine what it is. ~~~

Tomorrow is always too late.

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Dear Friends:


Greetings. This blog has been created for the purpose of focusing on futurism...especially for identifying and discussing the prospective implications for businesses of emerging consumer, technological, regulatory, political, market, financial and cultural trends. You will not want to miss a single post. Program this blog into your Favorites.


Stay tuned for an eye-opening first post.


Thank you for your anticipated interest.

*******

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle