Governments Become Like Living Organisms.

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Governments, with time and growing mass, become like living organisms, preoccupied with their own survival, growth and increased power over their surroundings. It is a function of Human Nature multiplied by a certain type of institutionalized, inculcated organizational psychology (the more highly organized and structured cousin of mob psychology).

You're right -- this post is a slight departure from the usual Global Futurist Blog agenda, but it should foreshadow some of the predictions I'm going to be sharing with you during these next few months.

Back to Governments: The more they eat, the bigger they become. The bigger they get, the more they must eat in order to maintain their gain. They become gluttonous, and if they do not meet with constant resistance from outside of themselves, they develop a sense of righteousness, entitlement and an insatiable appetite for all that they can consume. they become self-obsessed and stop existing to serve the people -- they begin to harvest and feed off of the people...

The people become servants of an ever-growing, ever-more-powerful government, which starts to look at them as a farmer looks at milk cows. These neoplastic juggernauts lose sight of their ethical purpose and become oppressive and intimidating.

When times are hard, they become desperate, and they go to greater, more aggressive measures to become satiated. Since they do not produce a measurable product or output, they take what they require or demand from the people's productivity, and offer less and less in exchange for these increased transgressions.

That should set the tone for the articles coming during these next few months...

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist Blog

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Social Media Stocks: Impending Bubble? - Watch Your Portfolios...

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Yes. I believe, as does brilliant visionary economist Robert J. Shiller, that the prices of social media platform and related-application stocks are due for a bursting of their current bubble. I believe that they are grossly overvalued, and that true economic performance and aggressive piranha-like aggressors (those darned enterprising entrepreneurial types) will begin to snack on the fatted calf. My estimate for the purposes of The Global Futurist Blog, is that the bubble will burst within the next 18 months. And you can quote me on FaceBook if you'd like...

Economics, as a field of study, is truly an analysis of the behavioral psychology and resultant reflexes study of people behave turned loose in certain circumstances -- either real or perceived. Share prices rise and fall with perception, anticipation and manipulation. Human Beings, even the brightest Futurists, have an inherent propensity (a slightly irrational drive) to try to defy the macroscopic rules of economic waves and cycles in a microscopic style. This accounts for some contrarian investing, for baseless valuations, for unproductive bidding wars, for monopolies, for competition and for bubbles.

Bubbles occur in every aspect of any market where the participants involved stop looking at fundamental guidelines for valuation, and get caught up in a buying frenzy. And, as if suffering from some recurrent amnesia, they seem to forget about varies economic calamities which preceded the one in which they are currently obsessed, and start believing that there will be an asymptotic ascension of prices and values heavenward, with no adjustment or compensating balance. Like gamblers on a lucky streak they raise the amount of the sure bet bet until someone surprises them and hauls all of their wealth away.

If you're interested in Dr. Robert J. Shiller's Works, here are a few recommendations:

Latest book: Finance and the Good Society, Princeton, 2012

"The Yale Tradition in Macroeconomics" (For 2011 Economics Reunion)

Disclosure of Outside Activities

With Randall Kroszner, Reforming U.S. Financial Markets, MIT Press, 2011

"Stimulus and Regulation," Testimony before UN General Assembly, 2nd Committee, 2010

The Squam Lake Report, Princeton, 2010

Animal Spirits (with George Akerlof), Princeton, 2009

Subprime Solution, Princeton, 2008

Information Site for Subprime Solution

Stockmarket Confidence Indexes

Standard & Poor’s/Case–Shiller Home Price Indices

Behavioral Finance

Behavioral Macroeconomics

Information Site for The New Financial Order

Information Site for Irrational Exuberance

“Finance in the 21st Century” Column for Project Syndicate

“Economic View” Column for New York Times

Online Video “Financial Markets” Course via Open Yale

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Yes, brothers and sisters - a change is gonna come.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist Blog





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Trend-Spotting Key: Amount Of News Coverage By Category.

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The percentage of news and social media communications (these latter communications are actually a type of derivative news, or of news commentary) coverage dedicated to certain categories changes from day to day and year to year, depending upon several important variables. A sampling of these influential variables, in no particular order of significance, would include:

• Cultural, Social, Business, Political, Economic, Technological, Medical/ Healthcare, Entertainment and other topics of interest or concern to readers, presumably because they exert an effect (real or perceived, current or anticipated) upon the readership, and the readers' appetites for information about things thought to be relevant to them will help "sell more papers." (an anachronistic but viable cliche);

• Demographic changes in cultural, intellectual, academic, economic (in terms of disposable personal income and wealth) and other composition factors;

• The exertion of influence, contribution of "editorial" content and advertising and amount of promotion expenditures reflecting the respective agendas and marketing efforts of business, political and social special interest groups utilizing the news media as a bullhorn for messaging;

• The exertion of topical influence and directional (i.e., opinion) bias by the companies which own or control the news media;

• The increase in the proliferation of international commerce, global markets, and the rise in the frequency (coupled with the precipitous decline in the costs) of worldwide social communications/conversational capabilities between individuals and organizations...

The first two and last one of the items bulleted above may be deemed, for analytic purposes, as demand-driven, while the third and fourth items may be considered supply-driven. There are, of course,  areas of overlap and of autocorrelation (i.e., cause-and-effect interdependencies) between the two types of drivers.

Note: In using the term drivers, this satisfies a need for some generalization and simplification in the interest of discerning trends and making projections using this information. The distinctions used in this article are my own, but they are not arbitrary.

The other major technological/cultural variable (actually a catalyst) that is apparently too obvious to mention (but I will mention it anyway) is the dramatic increase in citizen journalism in all of its forms. Cyberspace is filled with text messages, emails, social media status updates, publicly-accessible blogs, virtual discussion forums and, of course, VoIP webcam and telephone calls. Skype, Vonage and other providers are making communication and commerce much less expensive, and much more probable between any given parties.

This phenomenon is exerting a powerful and growing influence on each and all of the five bulleted variables above.

Whether reactive or proactive, these myriad bits of information and opinion from diverse, unfettered, outspoken "citizen" sources are accelerating the "climatic" change in the composition and focus of all news media. News travels faster and further than ever before, and media reaction, in the sense of stimulus-response timing, is ever-accelerating. News moves very, very rapidly, and is more widespread and accessible than ever before.


A fine source of media coverage levels or percentages of news communications dedicated to certain topical categories is provided by The Pew Research Center's Project For Excellence In Media ("Year In The News/ State Of The Media") which can be found at http://stateofthemedia.org/2011/year-in-the-news/.

For example, if I compare three news subjects, from two different quarters of 2010 (the fourth and the second), you can see the difference in frequency percentages in three categories. These three categories were deliberately chosen just for the purpose of exaggerating this point.

These short-term variations regarding the coverage of fairly specific (or "hot") topics tend be be very substantial, but not terribly significant from a macroscopic perspective; if we really want to spot serious, meaningful trends, we need to take a look at the coverage of a larger number of generalized and more-broadly categorized topics (nothing as sensational, for example, as BP's ecological catastrophe, which represents more of an aberration than an exemplary trend variable) over longer periods of time.

This adjustment in our trend-spotting approach, i.e., 1) a larger number or matrix of categories; 2) more broadly-defined categories (to avoid the statistical and perceptual distortion associated with coverage of sensationalized items); and, 3) longer expanses of time for making our observations will tend to give us less "news spike hype" and more solid trending and tendencies.

To be continued...

Douglas E Castle [http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com]

The Global Futurist Blog

The Internationalist Page Blog

TNNWC Management Consulting Services Website

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Future Weapons, Technology And Tactics

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This post is not intended to be completely humorous. It is accidentally humorous in that it speaks of typical human behavior, the unfathomable (and expensive) cost of design errors, our obsession with being the most powerful country in the world (because no country trusts any other country, right?).  I've had some fun at the expense of DARPA - it would appear that they have launched another stunning white elephant. Admittedly, no new innovation is without its bugs and some need for testing and refinement.

It makes me wonder -- if all of the world's nations could invest a portion or their respective defense and weapons development budgets in a mechanism to engender international trust through some system of accountability and consequences, then perhaps we could save enough of a fortune to invest in education, entrepreneurship and building a sustainable, peaceful and prosperous civilization. We are more obsessed with the notion of developing lethal pre-emptive strike capabilities (as quickly as possible) than we are about improving the quality of life.

The saddening irony here is that without working toward a decent quality of life (a flourishing economy, ripe with innovation productivity, growth, education, an improved standard of living, better healthcare, a less toxic environment, more time for leisure and social interaction with other members of our species -- as well as with the occasional dolphin --), what are we defending?

You may read more about this at http://douglascastle1.wordpress.com/2011/08/12/americas-secret-weapon/

Douglas E Castle
Chairman
TNNWC Group, LLC

http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com and http://www.LinkedIn.com/in/douglascastle
http://www.TNNWC.com

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Three Permanent Uber-Variables: Capitalism, Government And Sustainability

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Reality Versus Perception - Real Trends Versus "Aftershock" Reactions

We, as Human Beings, are never particlarly good at making objective decisions, judgments or plans. We are sensorially barraged by overlapping discordant waves of staccato advertisements, promotions, and news which is more about entertainment and propaganda (spin doctoring) than it is about reporting of factual information. We are bombarded by the noise (and accompanying sensorial fatigue) that envelops us, and are shaped, in every aspect, by the external environment.

This having been said, we are each burdened by the imposing filter of his own perception. Even if we are given the right raw data or raw material, we may misinterpret or mismanufacture. This comes from inside of us.

Carried to its logical conclusion, it is very difficult for us to differentiate between what is real (and lasting), and what is imaginary (ephemeral and incorrect). We tend to live our lives in a reactive and defensive state, and it is easy to be misled. It is a tough paradox that rules the way in which we think -- i.e., can a psychotic truly know, with any degree of certainty, when he is hallucinating and when he is not?

Every trend-spotter, forecaster, futurist, strategic planner, entrepreneur, investor and street-crosser must work hard to separate reality from perception. Our inherent subjectivity and our brief, rushed lives stand between us and intelligent conclusions.

It is increasingly difficult to know what indicia signify a "fad" or a "knee-jerk response" from a trend that is meaningful with serious consequences.

There are three big uber-variables at play in the world, and we are constantly being demanded to choose sides, to take action, or to "feel" a certain way about each.

One is government, and all that it involves;

One is capitalism, more often than not confused with "greed," and generally being associated with the privileged political "right."

One is sustainability, more often than not confused with, or lumped indiscriminantly in with, environmentalism, ecological sensitivity, and the political "left."

What I am about to state is merely my own opinion about the above three items, rendered in simplistic terms:

Sustainability might just be here to stay; but then again, capitalism (despite some highly negative press) is not expected to make an exit anytime soon, and government (and divisive, partisan politics) will always be a part of our lives as long as there are more than two people on this planet.

Yours Faithfully,

Douglas E Castle

p.s. If you would like to read an article about how two of these uber-variables, Sustainability and Capitalism, might actually co-exist to the benefit of those supporting either side (there are really no "sides"... there are just generalizations and convenient categorizations), please click on the article link below:


http://expertadviceandinsightsfromtnnwc.blogspot.com/2011/07/sustainability-fueled-by-intelligent.html

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NOTICE: This article is Copyright © 2011 by author Douglas E Castle with all rights reserved. It may be republished without permission provided that it is published in full, with all hyperlinks and exhibits left intact, and with full attribution given the author. This article does not contain or constitute medical, health, psychological, legal, regulatory, investment, securities, financial, tax, or any other form of professional advice -- the reader acknowledges and accepts this disclaimer. Further, the reader indemnifies and holds harmless both the author and all publications in which this article appears of any damages, claims, loss, responsibility or liability emerging from the reader’s utilization of any information contained herein.

About This Author: Further information regarding this author’s professional experience, expertise and service offerings can be found at ABOUT DOUGLAS E CASTLE

Other Blogs And RSS Feeds By This Author: A comprehensive list of blogs and RSS feeds on various subjects written or moderated by Douglas E Castle may be found by clicking on the orange icon below.

This Blog Is Powered By TNNWC Group, LLC ™

Contact This Author Directly: Click HERE for an instant pop-up form.

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Labels, Tags, Search Terms, Categories, Keywords, References For This Article: Perception, Social Sciences, Allegory of the Cave, trends, decision-making, staying focused, reality checks, subjectivity, illusion, trend-spotting, fads, the reactive mind, impulse, jumping to conclusions, Douglas E  Castle, altered perception, TNNWC, uber-variables, The Global Futurist Blog, The Internationalist Page Blog, prediction versus supposition, how people think, The Braintenance Blog, psychosis, sensorial overload, hallucination, uber-trends, Lingovations, logic, NLP, mind-mapping, the Subjectivity Paradox...

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NOTICE: This article is Copyright © 2011 by author Douglas E Castle with all rights reserved. It may be republished without permission provided that it is published in full, with all hyperlinks and exhibits left intact, and with full attribution given the author. This article does not contain or constitute medical, health, psychological, legal, regulatory, investment, securities, financial, tax, or any other form of professional advice -- the reader acknowledges and accepts this disclaimer. Further, the reader indemnifies and holds harmless both the author and all publications in which this article appears of any damages, claims, loss, responsibility or liability emerging from the reader’s utilization of any information contained herein.

About This Author: Further information regarding this author’s professional experience, expertise and service offerings can be found at ABOUT DOUGLAS E CASTLE

Other Blogs And RSS Feeds By This Author: A comprehensive list of blogs and RSS feeds on various subjects written or moderated by Douglas E Castle may be found by clicking on the orange icon below.

This Blog Is Powered By TNNWC Group, LLC ™

Contact This Author Directly: Click HERE for an instant pop-up form.

You may follow Douglas E Castle on TWITTER 

The author highly recommends that each of his respected readers becomes Pinglerized (a Lingovation™) in order to maximize SEO, search engine ranking, and to exponentially increase both unique visitors and recurring traffic to your website or blog. Leverage this wonderful technology.



The author wishes to thank the following resource providers:

Feedburner, CoolText Graphics, JavaScript Free Code, Zemanta, Google, WordPress, Widgetbox, and Wikipedia
---------------