Showing posts with label forecasts and predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecasts and predictions. Show all posts

Monday, June 15, 2015

The Virtual Workplace: The Inevitable Disruption - Douglas E. Castle

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .





The virtual workplace is more than just a tech-speak catchphrase. It is revolutionary, and its effects will be felt in every quarter. The Virtual Workplace - The Inevitable Disruption is a topic worthy of consideration to every trend spotter and every futurist.

The virtual workplace is increasingly becoming the norm, while the traditional brick and mortar offices housing the companies' headquarters are becoming increasingly obsolete - more symbolic of the "old paradigm" businesses. Companies are leaning to the extreme in the direction of telecommuting, and expect these disruptive and progressive trends to be on the rise. Please bear in mind that this article does not provide financial or investment advice:

1) Virtual meeting software and platforms will be in increasing demand. Citrix, WebEx and their other market-dominating peers are going to be experiencing competition for their market space due to the increasing demand for virtual forums;

2) Companies will be retaining more independent contractors and employing fewer in-house employees in order to reduce staffing costs and personnel-related overhead;

3) Commercial real estate will be taking a tumble as companies move to virtual environments and away from renting and purchasing buildings and office space;

4) An increasing number of 1 - 5 person corporations and limited liability companies will be formed as contracting and outsourcing increase and direct corporate employment decreases. Incorporation and registered agent businesses such as Legal Zoom and The Company Corporation will be experiencing increased revenues and market demand, as will their less-dominant competitors;

5) The demand for IT and computer systems professionals will increase, disrupting and displacing many middle-management, administrative and accounting positions;

6) Internationalism, in terms of globally-diversified markets and supply chain structure, will be on the rise as outsourcing and offshoring increase;

7) E-commerce will be displacing and outpacing traditional retail commerce;

8) Tax collections by governmental agencies will become increasingly difficult as the traditional employer-employee structure becomes increasingly displaced and de-centralized;

9) The utilization of household interior space will be shifting in favor of a greater percentage of work-at-home or home office space versus family and leisure space;

10) Society will become increasingly destabilized, and interpersonal and communications skills will suffer greatly due to a breakdown in the traditional face-to-face meeting paradigm.

The rise of the virtual workplace will ultimately affect every aspect of society, from simple reading and writing skills (declining) to the deterioration of international boundaries and political barriers (through outsourcing, offshoring, e-commerce and independent contracting). Be prepared for a radical change in all markets and marketplaces. This all-encompassing sea change is already underway and should be anticipated to accelerate in its course and severity over the next three to five years. After that, watch out for the rise of Artificial Intelligence.

Thank you, as always, for reading me.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist

Please join me on LinkedIn!




Respond To Douglas E Castle
http://bit.ly/CASTLEDIRECT

FUNDING BUTTON LINK

THE GLOBAL FUTURIST – Douglas E Castle

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com

Discovering and following significant trends across an extensive range of domestic and international consumer, business, demographic, cultural, economic, political, technological and other key areas of influence and impact on life and business; predicting future change, preparing for it and profiting from it.

Key Terms: business, forecasting, trends, future, prediction, disruption, displacement, innovation, complexity theory, economic waves and cycles, projections, planning



***************
This site is proudly affiliated with Global Edge International Consulting Associates, Inc. ["GEI”]
Free Subscription to The GEI Business Daily!
Sign Up For Our Free GEI Newsletter!
Receive Our Free GEI RSS Feed!

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

2012 And Beyond - Knowing What Will Happen - The Global Futurist Blog

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .



2012 - The Beginning Of The Future




The Futurism business is a tricky, controversial but necessary one. It poses multiple challenges. There are futurists who are primarily in the business of trend-spotting and intelligence reporting -- they provide a crucial real-time as well as "anticipatory" service... and then there are the predictors. In The Global Futurist Blog, I do a bit of both for my readers.

The near-term predictors tend to be judged much more harshly because their predictions will be early-on proved either accurate or inaccurate. Many a predictive guru has back-pedaled to explain (rather like an errant child, a central bank economist, or a politician) what unforeseeable circumstances or "wild cards" caused him to be off the mark. Yet, as a predictor of things, you are not truly permitted the latitude of explanation unless you have prefaced your prediction with a list of assumptions and 'ifs."

The more preconditioned your forecast upon qualifying assumptions, the less useful it will be. Near-term (i.e., within a one- to three-year time horizon) predictions are very difficult.

Those longer-term extrapolators of trends who paint brilliant futurescapes which can be expected to materialize 15 to 50 years from now have much more latitude than their more closely scrutinized and accountable shorter-run colleagues in the prediction arena.  They will not be held to account with as much severity.

And let's not forget that an influential futurist can actually make a prediction turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy by his or her own hints and the series of interrelated events which follow - almost like (in investment terms) making the market instead of calling the market.

In the coming days, weeks and months, I intend to enrich my content and your experience as my guests to include serious looks into not only my views of current intel, emerging trends, short-term predictions and far ahead futurescapes -- I will be adding much more of my colleagues' respective views on these aspects of Global Futurism to give you are better perspective of what my colleagues are thinking to compare and contrast with my individual views on the future.

My objectives are nothing short of making this particular destination the best resource for information regarding all aspects of trending, analysis and prediction available on the internet, and to make the related Twitter accounts a source of deeper, richer, more diversified content from the best sources.

It is my wish that you invest some of your future with me, and I thank you in advance.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist

For a list of interesting Twitter Feeds to follow, please visit The TwitterLinks Hubspot Blog and choose any or all of the feeds that suit your taste. Welcome.



Blogs And RSS Feeds
by Douglas E Castle


Share this page

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

The Unnecessary Decline Of Civilization

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .



Civilization is essentially a business arrangement of convenience entered into by all parties so that each may be better benefited by the expertise, the experience and the contributions (in terms of cooperative and collaborative efforts harmoniously in synergy). A civilization is also very much like a multi-cellular organism, where each cell (i.e., participant) must be reasonably independent and self-managing, but also cooperative in terms of society's "business plan."

If the plan is unclear, if the roles of the participants are uncertain, if there are no policies (i.e., laws and parameters of conduct), or if those policies are capriciously applied without regard to balance, fairness, justice and predictability, and if incentives are not offered for doing things of benefit for society as a whole, the body of civilization disintegrates, as does any overripe, under-managed 'business' that has forgotten or chooses to ignore the reasons for which it was formed.

Every Human Being is a participant in civilization in multiple aspects and capacities.

A bloated system which ignores the notion of contribution and meritocracy, and instead embraces plutocracy, privilege and waste, will lose the faith, initiative and cooperation of its stakeholders (the participants), its employees (the participants) and its clients (the participants).

As the focus of our participants moves away from such once-thought-noble objectives as teaching and helping others; innovating and creating "new" things; gaining and maintaining a reputation for trustworthiness; self-growth; supported entrepreneurship; free and open dialogue and exchanges of ideas; a true opportunity to serve, and direct political elections based upon individual merits of candidates (and not based upon the sizes of their budgets); a streamlined government which does not itself act as an ever-growing parasite subsisting off of the contributions of the participants (hosts) and offering less and less service in exchange for more and more intrusive control at a higher and higher 'commission rate,' extorted in the form of taxes and money creation...we become increasingly (and perhaps preemptively) selfish.

The situation is exacerbated by feeble leadership, increasing inefficiencies, diminished expectations and a lack of positive reinforcement for genuine achievement. When people work for the government but the government doesn't work for the people, when greed eclipses good, when all assessment becomes subjective, the stage is set for a social decline.

Our decline has already begun, and is accelerating worldwide. As a business in the macroscopic sense, civilization neither turns a profit nor justifies, by the decreasing benefits which it bestows upon its participants, its very existence.

As Futurists, we must anticipate a decline in civilization if the implicit trends referenced above are not reversed -- and momentum, combined with typical Human reactivism, are driving us to the brink of some form of neo-feudalism with large enterprises as the warlords who will command us under the guise of protection.

Be prepared. There will be mush more to discuss on the implications, timing, risk mitigation, and intelligent intervention in order to either exploit this coming era of entropy (a seemingly immoral choice), or to plan to surf the coming tsunami.

It is painful to think that this is a generalized trend...poorer service, increased institutionalized lawlessness, de-personalization, diminished expectations and standards, unproductive expenditure and profligate 'bonus entitlement', is, in a sense the triumph of Humankind's animal Nature over the spark of divinity which I believe resides in most if not all of us.

In subsequent posts, we talk about what we need to do as individuals, as families, and as businesses owners and managers.

Douglas E Castle [http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com]

http://BusinessAndProjectPlanning.blogspot.com
http://InfoSphereBusinessAlerts.blogspot.com
http://TakingCommand.blogspot.com
http://SendingSignals.blogspot.com 


Blogs And RSS Feeds
by Douglas E Castle

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Prediction: Science, Logic, Imagination, Intuition and C-Factors

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .





In order to predict the future and to effectively create and prepare for a futurescape, a fusion and balancing of several disciplines is necessary:

1) science and math (extrapolation of trends across a variety of sectors, and the unbiased use of all predictive systems -- some of which may seem illogical but which are none the less proven, effective predictors);

2) logical, critical thought (determining which trends to include and which are less relevant, as well as which elements are exogenous -- such as unexplainable but yet recurring "natural" waves and cycles -- and which are endogenous -- those which are cause and effect-based, and which may or may not be controllable based upon Human intervention);

3) imagination and vision (the ability to hypothesize, construct and visualize alternative futures);

4) intuition (an open-minded sensitivity or "connection" to what mystics, philosophers, theosophists and an increasing number of reluctant scientists are calling anything from the "collective consciousness" and the "Akashic records" to the "universal mind" or simply "prescience"); and

5) something I'll call the "C-Factors," categorically -- these are wild cards, natural or preternatural events and other factors which may impact us in certain seemingly unpredictable ways. Esoteric stuff, I'll admit.

Some have likened the effects of these C-Factors to those phenomena which exist by virtue of Complexity Theory (or Chaos Theory, for those from the original school of thought), where a tiny event can initiate a spiral or sequence of increasingly larger, seemingly unrelated events.

The best way to illustrate something that resembles (albeit crudely and metaphorically) this amazing type of perceptual effect would be certain giant symbols [usually carved into the Earth over many miles, or built to significant pyramid-like size and positioning] which can not be "understood" from walking around them on the ground, but which can be seen as symbols or other indicators only from a pilot's-eye view, i.e., from many miles from the Earth's surface.

This brings to mind many unexplained geological phenomena (Giza, Easter Island, "airstrips" in Peru, and countless others) which we call 'wonders' but which other sentient beings, from a much grander perspective might call 'communications' or 'language.'  These C-Factors must be given attention, and from any number of different perspectives, in order to determine what they might mean, and what they might cause.

We may, as mere Human Global Futurists, be likened to mites looking at one brick in a much larger structure. We may be foolish and conceited enough to believe that our perspective is the intended or grandest perspective.

We must be aware of our inherent limitations and biases when getting down to the business of prediction and preparation.

Returning briefly to the notion of the "C-Factor", or what we might collectively refer to as the "C-Factor Phenomenon."
Here's a wild card worth taking a look at -- solar storm activity, and its short-term possible effects as anticipated by some observers of such phenomena [it is interesting to note that no speculation is offered with respect to the longer-term effects of this type of solar activity]:

Latest Crisis: Solar Storms Are Set to Hit the Earth

The Atlantic WireBy 

Ujala Sehgal | The Atlantic Wire – Sat, Aug 6, 2011

It certainly seems like the world has been under attack lately. Now that "Debtaggedon" is over, Reuters is reporting that there have been three large explosions from the Sun over the past few days, and that "sun storms" are set to hit the Earth. The U.S. government, which is pretty pressed for time as it is right now, is warning "users of satellite, telecommunications and electric equipment to prepare for possible disruptions over the next few days." Or, as National Geographic informs us: "Storms are brewing about 93 million miles (150 million kilometers) away, and if one of them reaches Earth, it could knock out communications, scramble GPS, and leave thousands without power for weeks to months." [click here for more] ####

Hmmm...

Douglas E Castle

The Global Futurist [http://TheGlobalFuturist.blogspot.com]
Links 4 Life Alerts!
[http://Links4LifeAlerts.com]
InfoSphere Business Alerts And Intelligence
[http://InfoSphereBusinessAlerts.blogspot.com]
Business And Project Planning
[http://BusinessAndProjectPlanning.blogspot.com]


Sponsored by: TNNWC Management Consulting Services
Enhanced by Zemanta



Blog Archive

Bookmark and Share