Showing posts with label decisionmaking. Show all posts
Showing posts with label decisionmaking. Show all posts

Thursday, October 22, 2009

16 Phrases to Illustrate Some Human Common Traits

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16 Phrases to Illustrate Some Human Common Traits

The article which follows was authored by Dr. Franco Oboni (foboni@riskope.com) for The Global Futurist. As an expert in multiple areas of international risk assessment, mitigation and management, Dr. Oboni, through his firm (http://www.riskope.com) and http://www.foboni.wordpress.com/ advises both private sector and public sector entities and organizations on integrating risk factors into their decisionmaking processes. Through his dealings with many organizations throughout some of the most dangerous parts of the world, and in his capacity as advisor to senior policymakers, Dr Fanco Oboni has become, albeit inadvertently, somewhat of an expert in behavioral psychology and the "Human Factor" which is involved in every business decision. Dr. Oboni is a Featured Columnist for THE NATIONAL NETWORKER Newsletter.  

As a Risk and Crisis Manager working all over the world supporting corporations, governmental agencies and individuals in their decision making and alternatives selection process, I have learned that we, human beings, share very strong and significant common traits, despite the apparent huge differences contributing to make our world such a colorful and wonderful place.

I am neither a psychologist nor a sociologist, so I will leave the discussion related to the origins of these common traits to those specialists.

Having said this, I feel it necessary to set forth a list, to raise awareness, as I believe that the world would be a better place, and more importantly, that we would build a better future, if we were to modify our characteristic behaviors and responses in these areas.

To make it simpler and clearer I will not describe the traits themselves, but instead compile a list of typical, commonplace phrases which reflect those traits. The list is split into four categories, A to D, describing the situation in which a person “normally/unfortunately” generally comes out with a phrase (I have included four examples per category) corresponding to a trait that we should modify.
So, for example:

WHEN: (A) People are made aware of a hazard (something unpleasant that could happen to those people), they GENERALLY REPLY:

  1. "Oh, yeah, I know, but that will not happen to me...because I know better, I am lucky, It has never happened before...."


  2. "Well, it has happened last year/in the last five-ten years, so we are good for a while."


  3. "Actually we had a security system for that, but we turned it off, as the alarm was scraring off people...and you see, no accident has happened since!"


  4. "Risk assessment is only there to scare people about huge accidents that never happen. Think positively!"

WHEN: (B) Something has gone wrong (could very well be the same guys in the list above), they GENERALLY REPLY:

  1. "What  bad luck, gee..."


  2. "I cannot understand how this happened... we had it all under control until then!"


  3. "Well you know, the alarm did not work that well."


  4. "We should probably do some risk assessment right now."

WHEN: (C) Decisions are to be made (could very well be the same guys in the two lists above), they GENERALLY REPLY:

  1. "You can do all of the analyses you want, but at the end, I will make the decision, following my instinct/my gut feelings, (and other body parts or particular garment areas): it has never failed me before."


  2. "I can see pros and cons and my decision will take all of those into account: you know, I have always taken calculated risks."


  3. "Man, when you are an entrepreneur, you know you have to take risks!"


  4. "You know, we have the experience to deal with whatever might come up in the course of this project."

WHEN:.(D) Contemplating project's fiasco, failure to perform, bankruptcy, they GENERALLY REPLY:

  1. "What happened is unprecedented, unforeseeable, how could we have...."


  2. "Well, there were so many uncertainties, what a pity..."


  3. "Well, we tried with all our best people and invested all of that money, ...well, you know, sometimes the best intentions.... (or, "sometimes things just happen")


  4. "We had done it so many times before, and lots of others have done it, how come it did not work this time?"

I am sure you can dig out examples you have heard about (or you may have lived as an actor), where these or other similar phrases were used by one or more stakeholders.

For instance, the Subprime fiasco and resulting economic turmoil, generated at least the following statements among Bankers, politicians and affiliated professionals:

A1, A3, A4, B1, B2, B3, B4, C1, C2, C3, C4, D1, D2, D3, D4.

You may have noticed that the only one missing is A2 [“well, it has happened last year, so we are good for a while”]. BEWARE: when the next bubble blows up, A2 will most certainly be in the list.

Am I pessimistic? Please do not get that very wrong impression. All my work, and my life is geared toward getting people, corporations and governmental agencies to turn to rational risk and crisis management, to perform risk-based decision making, to establish their risk tolerability and enhance their chances of success. Approaches and methods scalable for small to huge businesses and projects do exist, and I use them every day for the benefit and protection of my clients and their interests.

It's important to note the difference between rational risk and crisis management, and rationalized risk and crisis management. The very Human trait of rationalizing is indeed one of the biggest impediments to sensible risk mitigation or avoidance.

-- Franco Oboni

Thursday, June 11, 2009

ORDER OUT OF CHAOS - A Socio-Economic and Behavioral Commentary

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Dear Friends:

My question for my colleagues is a simple one: Are you motivated more by FEAR, or by the OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN? Be fully honest. Christine West's Seminar: http://ping.fm/SH3ov . My personal commentary follows.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

ORDER OUT OF CHAOS - A SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND BEHAVIORAL COMMENTARY

Throughout the United States and the rest of the world that surrounds us (I sound a bit paranoic, don't I?), people are frightened. The economy is in a contractionary state; many formidable and once-credible "bedrock" institutions have failed amid allegations of major misjudgments and corruption -- and the distinctions between the public and private sectors are becoming increasingly unclear. People tend to be frightened by rapid change and general uncertainty.

Panic makes for some terrible decisionmaking, while maintaining a calm and analytic state of mind while those about us are in a state of irrationality can reveal some contrarian investment bargains. While fear has locked many investors and businesses into a paralytic holding pattern, a distinct minority, virtually a special social class, is quietly buying up controlling stakes and future monopolistic positions in a variety of industries, companies and commodities. This minority, for the most part, is comprised of very wealthy, privileged families...families who have prospered through generation after generation, almost regardless of the political or economic environment. We will refer to them (for the purposes or simplicity) as dynastic families. Their blueblooded names are familiar to many of the rest of us, and they have held tremendous power for quite some time -- centuries, in fact.

I am betting that amongst the pedestrian, "common" population, fear is a far superior motivating force than the promise of an opportunity for gain. I believe that we travel long, circuitous routes in order to avoid confrontation, pain and loss, while we seldom leave the living room couch for an opportunity, which might require effort on our part. Inertia, indolence and a lack of ambition combine to work against the potential efficacy of positive reinforcement, while fear actually creates a physiological reaction (i.e., the secretion of adrenalin, cortisol, etcetera) which actually produces the means for rapid movement in a "fight or flight" response.

The endorphin "rush" produced by the mind's complex neurochemical apparatus is, in contrast, usually much slower to gain a foothold and much weaker in terms of its sway over our responses to the environment and circumstances. It is interesting to note that fear is regarded by many as a visceral reflex, while ambition, and the excitement that accompanies it, is seen to be more of a cerebral, learned action.

Is it possible that the actual physiology of the members of these dynastic families has changed, through some sort of evolutionary genetic mechanism, over the generations? Is it possible that the progenitors who spawned these imperial families started out with an anomalous physiological/ psychological makeup which permitted them to seize ever-increasing stakes of wealth and power while others panicked and fled? Is there a "contrarian gene" that makes these people different, or is it a function of a learned response which is handed down from each generation to its successor?

These few have triumphed through virtually every tragic chapter in the course of Humanity's erratic, ungainly evolution. I am fascinated by the fact that such a small group of persons can continually control the bulk of the world's resources.

These dynastic families all have one thing in common -- they are not motivated by fear.

I am equally fascinated by my almost dull, ho-hum, all-too-calm expectation, in my dual roles as a Strategic Planner and a Futurist, that these dynastic families will become even wealthier and more powerful as a result of the severe economic recession that has befallen us; and that they will emerge, as they always have, with an even greater percentage of the world's wealth when the current crisis has ended. The irony is that these families always benefit by their uncanny ability to maintain their cool in the midst of the confusion -- to make order (and money) out of chaos. This observation has made conspiracy theorists out of many of us. We are indeed, by and large, a fearful group of primitives running from the lightning, while these others are out flying their kites.
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