Friday, December 28, 2012

The Future Of Employment: Auditions And Contractors - 12.28.2012

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .

The job-hunting process is either a "who you know" proposition [if you're well-networked], or a cold "fill in the computer fields, and forget about your cover letter or personalization" process done by computer where reams of submissions are vetted by Human Resources or other departments to simply and algorithmically find what appears to be the "best fit". The personal interface factor has been removed and replaced with a unidimensional matching game. This trend will doubtless continue. In times of great economic uncertainty, people are hesitant to make any commitments. Internal Human Resources personnel will wind up with elimination power, and the actual prospective employees will even have less of a chance to find out (because of the absence of the multiphased interview process) if the fit is truly right.

The result of this process is that companies are totally unfamiliar with the individuals whose services they are buying, and that this blind selection dies not afford the employee any insight as to how the new employee will 1) perform his or her responsibilities in a real-time, company-world environment, 2) be assimilated into the company's particular individual culture.

Add to the foregoing the expense of making a hire (benefits, pension, and other accommodations which are becoming increasingly expensive), and the potentially high cost of termination -- especially in terms of regulatory investigations or legal proceedings and their associated costs.

The solution is increasingly becoming short term contracting of prospective employees who've passed the imbecilic automaton CV submission vetting, and seeing them in action before either contracting with them for a longer term, or actually hiring them as employees. And the trend is that companies are increasingly cutting key employee staff down to a skeletal core, and adding modular talent, as needed, by longer-term contract. This is the way in which many project managers and IT professionals work now.

This tendency is described briefly in some news which I excerpted from a Linked In newsletter several weeks ago.

Try Before You Buy: Why Smart People And Smart Companies Are Ditching the Interview - Once is a coincidence, twice is a trend? Increasingly I'm hearing about talented folks and sought after start ups ditching the interview process as final arbiter of employment and instead...
Trending within the following companies:
The Walt Disney Company

My feelings and the feelings of many of the readers of The Global Futurist Blog is that the trend, which will continue from the beginning of the new year onward, will be marked by these characteristics:

1) Companies will "optioning" employees or contractors and their careers, and being very, very non-committal;

2) Individuals are increasingly going to cloak themselves in a "Me, Inc." attitude, and be ready for sudden travel or change;

3) Contractors and employees will be spending a greater portion of their time on seeking the next engagement or backup contracting plans than actually focusing on the engagement or job at hand - This will cause a decline in the quality of the work...perhaps a sort of self-fulfilling prophesy;

4) Loyalty and commitment will continue to disintegrate between workers and companies, except in the case of start-ups, smaller businesses or developmental-stage enterprises -- many of these will undoubtedly be capitalized through a combination of sweat equity and crowdfunding;

5) The automated job application process (i.e., filling in the fields on an inflexible form on your computer or device screen), combined with the elimination of the personal interview process and conventional cover letters and follow-through where person-to-person factors and chemistry count so very much, will lead to a greater percentage of detrimental trial-and-error Human choices -- especially in the case of the larger companies.

In sum, this process will fail just as the educational system in the US has failed -- The best online computer employment application field fillers (either incredible conformists or persons practiced at "gaming the system" by saying what the HR department wants to hear. People will become poorer as loyal employees and become better at "taking the test" (the online job app).

Any out-of-the-box thinkers and multifaceted or persons with wonderfully diverse but unconventional career histories or educational credentials (pieces of paper) will have to either become entrepreneurs or work with entrepreneurial-founded enterprises. The best, brightest and most creative, across all age groups will be working for the SMEs and start-ups, while the "yes men" or politically correct (ahem) and indecisive followers-on will be filling the cubicles of the largest companies.

The future, especially during this next five-year cycle which commenced with the Winter Solstice (just passed) will cause a shift in the talent that remains in the industrialized nations, from corporate establishment to creative and less-structured. In the short-run, it spells tremendous unemployment --- but in the longer-run it spells a resurgence of creativity, innovation and value-added jobs creation

Thank you, as always for reading me.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist Blog, The Internationalist Page Blog, The Business And Project Planning And Management Blog and The Mad Marketing Tactics Blog.

Please have a look at our newest blogs: The CrowdFunding Incubator Blog , The Crowd Funding RSS Feeds Blog, The CFI CrowdFunding Incubator Blog and The ICS - International Connection Services website.

View DOUGLAS E. CASTLE's profile on LinkedIn

Douglas E Castle
All Blogs & RSS Feeds

Share this page
Contact Douglas Castle
Follow Me on Pinterest

crowdfunding websites, crowdfunding incubators, crowdfunding platforms, crowdfunding startups, crowdfunding news, crowd funding news, crowdfunding updates, crowdfunding rss feeds, crowdfunding incubator, CrowdFunding Incubator, crowdfunding accelerator, crowdfunding projects, crowdfunding ventures, crowdfunding sites, crowdfunding associations, crowdfunding organizations, crowd funding, project finance, micro loans, venture capital, micro-ventures, angel funding, crowd funding, project fundraising, crowd funding sites, crowd funding resources, crowdfunding tips tricks tools techniques, CFI, CrowdFunding Incubator LLC, crowdfunding capital, capital sources, CFI Featured Projects, CFI CrowdFunding Incubator, Crowd Funding RSS Feeds, CrowdFunding Incubator C.F.I., SME, SBA, MBE, WBE, DBE small business grants, loans, credit, growth capital, non-bank, fund a project, kickstarter, Indiegogo, crowd funding start ups, new crowd funding sites, crowd funding laws, JOBS Act, crowd funding contests, entrepreneurs, innovators, inventors, applications, funding technology, growth capital, seedling businesses, kiva, socially responsible projects, crowdsourcing, crowd sourcing, funding phases, business plans, presenting your business idea, crowd forums, government business assistance programs, business mentoring, free business resources and advice,,,, Douglas E. Castle blogs...

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Global Futurist Update - 2013 And Beyond

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .

The Global Futurist Blog has a great deal of territory to cover regarding what to anticipate in the coming year, the coming 5 years and the coming 25 years (futurescaping). Before I start citing trends, confluences of events, predictions and preparations, please take a moment and read through The Global Economy: Reasons And Remedies and bear in mind the notion of what happens to a society that is changed by technology, power shifts, concentrations of influence, archaic institutions and expectations and fails to adapt to the massive series of disruptive waves. Then, please come back.

Of course, this report would not be fully complete without my fellow Futurist Thomas Frey's insights into where we are and where we are going:

Coding is the new literacy of the 21st century
Could you be sitting on the app concept of the century, but you don’t know the programming basics to create it. Now, thanks to coding courses offered by companies such as DaVinci Coders and Codecademy, people are launching new businesses by taking coding matters into their own hands.
Continue reading
Denser cities are smarter and more productive
One of the most important, and at times contentious topics in urban development is density.  Density plays an important role in economic growth. Density brings people and firms closer together which makes it easier to share and exchange information, invent new technologies, and launch new firms.
Continue reading
Baby boomers are the driving force behind 'big data' demand
No matter what generation we are we usually see young adults, who are tethered to their mobile device for texting, gaming and surfing the web, as the drivers of our new data-driven world. But surprisingly, baby boomers aged 46 to 64 represent possibly the largest generation driving rapid growth in data demand.
Continue reading

U.S. Senator presses FAA to allow use of electronic devices during takeoff and landing
Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) wants the Federal Aviation Administration to relax its long-standing rule against the use of portable electronic devices on airplanes during takeoff and landing. The agency has traditionally claimed the rule is necessary to avoid interference with an airplane’s instruments, but it is currently reconsidering the policy.
Continue reading

Top 6 social-digital trends of 2013
It’s that time of year where we predict how in the year ahead technology continues to influence how we work and live.  Previously the trends have been under the “social media” lens because that has been the major disruptive force, creating both opportunities and threats. This year, the trends will be under term “social-digital” to broaden the focus.
Continue reading

The 'flipped academic' in higher education - inform first and publish later
The concept of the ‘flipped classroom’ in schools is when pupils complete course material ahead of lessons to free up time with their teachers and apply the knowledge they have just learned. Now a related philosophy is developing in higher education. Can we also flip academics  or even academia itself?
Continue reading

Google gives $5 million for drones to hunt African rhino poachers
There are horrific photos of subdued rhinos with their horns amputated by poachers that have become a viral phenomenon. Google is now giving $5 million to a conservation group for lightweight drones that will patrol the African bush, exposing ivory hunters along the way.
Continue reading

Harvard's top endowment managers make 20 times as much as a professor

Ron Unz of the American Conservative posits that 375-year old Harvard University has grown so rich that it is now essentially a giant hedge fund with a little school attached.
Continue reading

Are you ready to fly anywhere in the world in under 4 hours?

Are you ready for hypersonic travel?  The British company, Reaction Engines, have passed the European Space Agency’s initial safety tests for their air-breathing rocket engines.
Continue reading

Are billionaires, Amish, the homeless, slum-dwellers, or Masai the happiest?
These are responses to: “You are satisfied with your life,” ranging from complete agreement (7) to complete disagreement (1), where 4 is neutral..
Continue reading

And now some practical predictions of my own for the coming year, and the 4 years to follow:

1) CrowdFunding will become the newest and largest of the capital markets, but within  one to two years, look for regulators to step in and try to spoil the party. Right now, some pundits estimate that the demand for crowdfunding, inclusive of start ups, early-stage entrepreneurial enterprises, SMEs and cause-based organizations (including, humanitarian, charitable, PACs, member-based groups and NGOs) will exceed $1.0 billion in 2013 alone -- to avoid a conflict of interest, I must disclose that I recently became the CEO of CrowdFunding Incubator LLC;

2) Real unemployment and underemployment within the industrialized western nations will continue to rise, as real compensation (inclusive of the value of the customary benefits of the past) will plummet;

3) The price of food and other family staples will rise in all of the English-speaking nations;

4) Brazil and other portions of Latin America will thrive, while China, Thailand and Southeast Asia will experience sufficient internal problems as to offset their anticipated denomination of world wealth and commerce;

5) India will continue to make great economic strides and become an increasingly active world trading power, and not just an outsource resource;

6) Most of the Middle East and parts of Africa will be in a state of war - from Shiites versus Sunnis to Islam versus the West to civil wars and uprisings against the leadership in most of these monarchies - and the US will continue to be involved because the weapons and rebuilding businesses are far to profitable to permit strategic withdrawals, no matter the amount of casualties;

7) Hybrid cars will become increasingly popular as oil and gasoline prices continue in their instability;

8) The idea of Global Warming will win much more acknowledgement and acceptance in the scientific community;

9) Nanotechnology will not be as fruitful or as powerful as many of us thought it might be even a year ago, but genetic engineering, stem cell regrowth potentialities, and a better understanding of the electrodynamics of the Human mind and its diseases will attract a great deal of attention, progress, adoption and capital;

10) The Euro will be a secondary currency as the wealthier countries in the European Union become more and more wary of their weaker partners;

11) An amended version of something like the Glass-Steagall Act (which separated banks from investment houses and brokerage firms in terms of their permitted activities, investments and reserve requirements) will resurface in the US and other western countries;

12) While longevity will experience (over these next five years) will increase up to as much as five years, this number will be based upon the median average and not the mean, as obesity, drug-resistant microbes and poorer medical care for the middle class and the working poor will decline precipitously. We will witness a resurgence in the Caribbean and Africa a resurgence of such diseases as cholera, diphtheria, and new strains of super viruses make their appearance;

13) A knowledge of brain chemistry will grow enormously, while AI (artificial intelligence) development will actually slow down as we continue to redefine the very essence and nature of intelligence;

14) Most communications and commerce will be conducted by mobile devices, and most software and data storage operations will be subsumed under the cloud;

15) Cable television will yield (though not without a fight) to satellite television, and streaming mobile-accessible media. Satellite telephones will become increasingly popular as an alternative to tower-to-tower digitized mobile communications;

16) Civilians will be protesting the availability of weapons to the general public, while arms of every caliber and type will be snapped up by an increasingly armed, albeit hypocritical citizenry;

17) Corporate armies and strategic defense departments will become more and more prevalent. Privatized armies will be loyal to their highest bidders, and nationality and patriotism will take more and more of a backseat to mercenary profits. High-net worth individuals and corporate executives will be guarded by private security firms;

18) Divisions between national governments and the governed will increase and become increasingly violent as citizens try to reclaim their power (#occupy), and governments cling tenaciously to the source of their funds through the ability to tax and confiscate. Militia activity in the United States will see a significant increase. The Taxpayer Revolt Movement will experience a resurgence and governments will strive to eliminate paper currency and supplant it with electronic funds transfers in order to more able to a) monitor the money supply, and to b) directly deduct tax liability assessments from the accounts (bank and brokerage) of citizens. This will favorably impact the prices of precious metals, physical commodities and a re-visitation of barter;

19) Mobile device applications will continue to soar in popularity and utilization;

20) As cyber-dependency invites increasingly audacious cyber attacks, companies and government entities will begin recruiting more and more computer security professionals - of course, cyber-espionage will also be on the rise, and many companies will attempt to recruit otherwise unaffiliated hackers into their ranks. Privacy through electronic communications will have become a complete impossibility, again reaffirming the viability of satellite communications and other, older methods of keeping communications secret.

21) There will be tremendous and exciting discoveries during the course of these next one to three years in the fields of disruption theory, plasma and stealth weaponry, and these will raise many ethical and basic Humanitarian questions and concerns.

Thank you as always for reading me, re-tweeting me and to letting me share my visions of the future with you.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist Blog, The Business And Project Planning And Management Blog and the CrowdFunding Incubator LLC Group Of Blogs

View DOUGLAS E. CASTLE's profile on LinkedIn

Douglas E Castle
All Blogs & RSS Feeds

Share this page
Contact Douglas Castle
Follow Me on Pinterest

CFI, C.F.I., CrowdFunding Incubator,  crowdfunding, crowd funding, incubators, accelerators, finance projects, listing services, start up, small business, SME, funding, capitalization, financing, leverage, company services, management, marketing, fundraising, technology, mentoring, advice, media, branding, memes, business tips tricks tools and resources, entrepreneur, forum, discussion, applications, technologies, risk assessment, business model, strategic planning, organizational development, connections, networking, early-stage, first-round, angel  funding, venture capital, credit lines, assistance, business growth, biz builders, social media power, delegation, automation, monitoring, metrics, brainstorming, meetups, joint ventures, partnerships -,, marketing, messaging, news releases, free, gain market share, increase backlinks, SEO, influence, disruption theory, directory, RSS feeds, Douglas E. Castle, blogroll, blogs, crowdfunding blogs...

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Major Trend Update: Definitions And Predictions - 11.28.12

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .

There are several terms which all Global Futurists, Strategic Planners And Marketers must become familiar with. These terms are already becoming the subject matter of numerous popular and scholarly articles as well as the nuclei for entire fields of academic and business concentration. Some are quite new, while others have been rolling around for several years already. I will note provide you with complete dissertations, but I will provide you with either basic definitions or with hyperlinks to some good source research material:

DRAMATIC CLIMATE CHANGE - The climate is getting warmer. In fact 2012, when the scores come in, will likely have been the warmest year worldwide in recorded history.

DESALINIZATION - The world's most essential commodity for the sustenance of life is water. And with increased climatic heating and the occasional mega-polluting BP catastrophe, pollution of water is becoming a problem of rapidly-growing proportions. The greatest source of water is the ocean, and the little nation of Israel has the best desalinization technology and plants worldwide. A true shortage of fossil fuels will occur after a worldwide shortage of potable water becomes a United Nations priority.

INFORMATION ASSURANCE - Integrity, security, safety and storage of data are becoming increasingly difficult with the advent of the cloud, reliance on computers, the growing sophistication of hackers, and the increasing use of mobile devices. There are entire careers developing around this special info-watchdog function. Read The Business And Project Planning And Management Blog for some details in terms of the issues and the opportunities.

GENETIC MEDICINE - Rather than trying to fight diseases with protocols involving antibiotics and antiviral drugs, more and more companies will be involving in trying to predict and prevent many diseases by gene mapping, finding disease "activator genes" and bolstering those genes which act as "suppressor genes." A related and inescapable term is bio-genetics and another is biomedical engineering.
MENTALISTS - Instead of using terms like behavioral analysts, psychics, hypnotists, NLP practitioners, interrogators, the whole art and science underlying each of these wondrous phenomena is now being referred to as mentalists. Purportedly, Mentalists are highly-trained, well practiced experts at analyzing non-verbal cues, body language, speech patterns and other cataloged habits (or "tells," with apologies to Simon Baker) and deriving conclusions based upon these keen observations in conformity with time-tested behavioral patterns.

DISRUPTION AND DISRUPTION (or DISRUPTIVE) INNOVATION - This is best defined by taking a look at The Disruption Theory And Disruption Innovation Blog. We used to call it "rapid change" or "displacement of markets." Now we have a fancy neologism.

NEUROMARKETING - This field is a cousin to subliminal programming, consumer behavioral psychology, impulse consumption, emotional triggers and a bit of inter-synaptic neurochemistry. You can find out much more about it by visiting (admission is free! While supplies last!) The Neuromarketing - Scientific Influence And Persuasion Blog.

And now, with the vocabulary section finished, here are a few things to start thinking about for the future: immediate, short-run, and longer term.

I'll offer you one: I believe that within the next three to five years, digital photography will become the industry standard and professional (social functions and portraits) photography will decline steeply in demand. Simultaneous with this, I predict that royalty-free stock photos are going to become cheaper and in more common usage.

The items which follow have been excerpted from Thomas Frey's Future Trend Report, published by The DaVinci Institute. As I've said before, while I don't always agree with all of his predictions, Thomas always provides me with some interesting and compelling input as source material for the building of my blog, The Global Futurist Blog

The portions marked with [Editor's Comment] were inserted by the blogger - Douglas E. Castle 

Ray Kurzweil talks about the future workforce
Singularity University’s Vice President of Innovation and Research, Vivek Wadhwa, has written about why he believes this will be the most innovative decade in human history and how we are headed for an era of abundant and affordable health care, and how robotics, artificial intelligence and 3D printing will lead to an era of local manufacturing in which the creative class flourishes.
Continue reading

Text message use falls in the U.S. for first time ever
Around the world, text-message traffic has been declining because Internet-powered alternatives are becoming so widely used. American cell carriers have fought off the decline until now. [Editor's Note: Texting does not permit the vast scope other multi-sensorial inputs and features offered by alternative mobile applications, particularly those which permit transmittal of still images and/or video clips]
Continue reading

Six electronic gadgets you can control with your mind
Brain-computer interface (BCI) has been a favorite of science fiction movies for a long time. So, forget about keyboard, mouse, touch screens or even voice recognition: the real dream is thinking about what you want your gadget to do.
Continue reading

The world's top cities for startups
The world’s unquestionable leader in generating high-tech start-ups that launch new technologies that change the way we live and work is Silicon Valley. Many cities around the world have tried to emulate its success. But until recently, the data has been lacking to calibrate and rank how far they have come.
Continue reading

Social media in the workplace - Is anyone actually working?
It seems like almost everyone is social today.  Every minute, Twitter users average 100,000 tweets, Facebook users post 684,478 pieces of content, Tumblr blog owners publish 27,778 new posts and Flickr users add 3,125 new photos. Facebook and Twitter are great tools for connecting and communicating with people in our social lives, or for brands communicating with customers, the real value of pure-play social tools as standalone applications within a business has yet to be proven.
Continue reading

Top 5 trends that will change HR in the future
When you look at HR trends people tend to look at what we do today and discuss ways it can be done better in the future. Applications and tools for recruiting, training, on-boarding, etc. are being developed at dizzying rates. The problem is that these new HR innovations are going to have a short half life.

[Editor's Note: Having dealt with Human Resources Departments and personnel before, and on too many occasions, they are, in my opinion, the least qualified persons making some of the most key personnel decisions - especially in larger companies -- with current "online job application techniques,' they don't ever receive or review cover letters, and provide no create way (in their automated computer field format) for prospects to differentiate themselves or to explain special extenuating or extra qualifying circumstances. The process is becoming increasingly a study in statistical matching instead of a necessary humanitarian interaction. If something poses a problem for HR departments and personnel, it actually makes me smile...]
Continue reading

Wharton School and startup Evolv use big data to predict when you will quit your job
You did everything by the book when you went in for that job interview. But, after going through all the effort, would you feel slighted if the interviewer made the ultimate decision about whether or not to hire you based on an algorithm? [please refer to the Editor's previous comment]. Sadly, algorithms are only as good as the input data and the programmers who design them. Pattern recognition is not intuitive intelligence or "chemistry." It is a cheap means of stuffing applicants into prefabricated containers.]
Continue reading

Boom in app development lures coders but it's tough to make a living

Over the last two years Shawn and Stephanie Grimes have spent much of their time in pursuing their dream of doing research and development for Apple, the world’s most successful corporation. [Editor's Comment: Perhaps brilliant programmers, designers and coders need 1) self-esteem training and 2) a participation in the revenue or profits associated with the programs, designs, templates, systems and applications which they devlop. Remember incentive management?]
Continue reading

NASA launches Big Data Challenge
NASA along with a couple other government agencies have kicked off a series of TopCoder challenges designed to find innovative solutions to the government’s big data problems. The first contest is all about making disparate, incompatible data sets usable and actually valuable across agencies.
Continue reading

Streaming video viewed on tablets is up 90%
There has been a dramatic increase over the last six months in the amount of streaming videocontent veiwed on tablet devices, according to a report released by Ooyala’s Q3 Global Video Index. (Infographic)
Continue reading

Makeup may be the key to a woman's success
In a recent study  from the Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Procter And Gamble, and Boston University, they had a sampling of over 200 individuals, both men and women, participants rated women wearing makeup as more competent than women without makeup. [Editor's Note: And gentlemen wearing Armani Suits, Patek Phillipe watches, Bruno Magli footwear and sporting Montblanc pens are probably viewed as more competent than chaps in $150.00 suits, Hush Puppies and bathed in drugstore colognes.]
Continue reading

The item which follows has been excerpted from the SmartBrief Newsletter For Nutritionists. It appears that, at least for 2013, the trend will be (amongst the gustatory cognoscenti) toward 1) eating more vegetables and less meats and processed foods; 2) eating raw, uncooked but appetizingly prepared veggie-centered dishes; and 3) consuming fewer calories. As I've mentioned before, in experiments with rodents, a 40% reduction in caloric intake corresponded with a 20% increase in lifespan.  Joyously, we have a client at CrowdFunding Incubator (Chef Brian Au) who is a renowned expert at the preparation and presentation of raw foods.

The forecasts generated by SmartBrief's collection of topically-oriented newletters tend to be highly accurate and observable within the near-term (as in 1 to 2 years), as opposed to The Future Trend Reports more generalized predictions over a longer time horizon (5 to 25 years).  SmartBrief always provides me with some interesting and compelling input as source material for the building of my blog, The Global Futurist Blog.

Low-calorie diet may reduce the risk of age-related diseases
Calorie restriction was associated with a slower aging process in the mitochondria of cells, resulting in a lower risk of age-related diseases including diabetes and heart disease, researchers wrote in the journal Nature. A low-calorie diet appeared to retain the cell membrane's acidity levels, which reduced the degradation of the mitochondria, researchers reported. Yahoo/Asian News International (11/22) 

Thank you as always for reading me, and for retweeting me, as well.

Douglas E. Castle for

The Global Futurist Blog
The Internationalist Page Blog
The Braintenance Blog
The Crowd Funding RSS Feeds Blog
The CrowdFunding Incubator Blog and the CrowdFunding Incubator Website, due to launch tomorrow!

View DOUGLAS E. CASTLE's profile on LinkedIn

Douglas E Castle
All Blogs & RSS Feeds

Share this page
Contact Douglas Castle
Follow Me on Pinterest

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

US Oil Addiction: Deadly Denial

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .

The Global Futurist Blog is predicting that The US' addiction to oil is going to persist, and will probably increase during the next fifteen- to twenty-year time horizon. This is not for lack of interest in alternative forms of energy, or for any lack of existing (or currently developing) substitutes or supplements to oil - it will primarily be due to Big Oil's increasing aggressiveness in domestic oil extraction under the patriotic guise of "oil independence" from middle eastern sources of supply -- who are constantly blamed (scapegoating) for the high price and limited availability of oil and gasoline at the pump. This doesn't solve any real problem. The true source of supply and pricing problems is right here in the US.

The aggressive extraction and production of fossil fuels in the US will only slow down when either 1) there is no longer any petroleum to be extracted [i.e., that our geological reserves are completely exhausted] or 2) the US population actually reduces its demand for automobile travel, oil heat and other refinery products. Neither is likely within the next twenty years. By manipulating supply and periodically dropping prices (only to have them rise during various crises, and then to fall again to new "higher lows"), the domestic oil oligopoly will continue to keep the dependency on oil high.

In the shorter-term (during 2013 -2014), oil and petroleum prices are certain to drop; the oil producers do not want to kill off their addicts -- they merely want them hooked.  And to make the oil companies' strategy all the more effective, the addicts in this instance are in denial.

The article excerpt which follows is excellent evidence of what I've stated above. The piece should be read both on its face and "between the lines."

IEA: U.S. will be biggest oil producer by 2020
The U.S. will replace Saudi Arabia as the top oil producer by 2020, the International Energy Agency said in a report. Around 2030, the U.S. will become a net exporter of oil and by 2035, it will be almost entirely energy self-sufficient, the agency said. Los Angeles Times (tiered subscription model) (11/13), Houston Chronicle/Loren Steffy blog (11/12), Business Insider (11/12)


Celebrating our oil independence from foreign sources is as ludicrous as throwing a party because we have found a more resourceful and industrious heroin supplier closer to our street in a better part of town. It is not something to celebrate about.

The US addiction to oil is not based upon where it comes from -- it is based upon the deeply ingrained consumer philosophy that "cheaper gasoline" is a good thing. The good thing would be a change in the dynamic among automakers, the oil companies and the consumers whereby the consumers would demand an alternative to gasoline instead of topping off the tank whenever the price is a bit lower and the supply appears plentiful.

This will slow down the development, proliferation and acceptance of alternative energy sources and technologies because it will cause an already oil-addicted nation to abandon its recovery attempts and simultaneously drive them (no pun intended) into perpetuating an already dangerous dependency upon oil and to a loss of inspired focus on finding a means of breaking free of the stranglehold that the oil companies have on consumers.

The principal enemy is consumer demand and an incredibly short public memory.

Alternative energy has been gaining a foothold in the US, and the parties involved in its production and acceptance (as an alternative to oil) will have to aggressively step up their marketing efforts and focus more on the threat level posed by the forecast increasing supply of oil.

I believe that the only good news here is that the US may 1) be able to accelerate an economic recovery by (at least temporarily) reducing the price of oil and the oil-related costs which impact the market pricing of so many goods, and 2) be able to export oil to other nations and thereby reduce of growing trade and budget deficits to the benefit of the US' sovereign debt standing.

And yes, oil prices will drop in 2013 for all of the eager US consumers.

Thank you as always for reading me

View DOUGLAS E. CASTLE's profile on LinkedIn

Douglas E Castle
All Blogs & RSS Feeds

Share this page
Contact Douglas Castle
Follow Me on Pinterest

Blog Archive

Bookmark and Share