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Differential rates of growth or development between any two
socio-economic variables over time, i.e., a divergence, create a growing divide - a gap - that is generally indicative of a very powerful, paradigm-shifting
MegaTrend. These MegaTrends are not usually abrupt shocks to the system, but they are
juggernauts, growing either steadily or at accelerating rates over time, with their influence becoming increasingly powerful over time, and affecting every significant aspect of life and commerce.
These growing waves or cracks (depending upon your perspective) are tremendous in terms of their ultimate effect, which can either take the form of a growing shift over time, or, like the stress cracks in an aging bridge, finally yield completely to the elements and the constant flow of traffic and collapse...with catastrophic results.
Ironically, these trends or tendencies are almost
invariably observed and noted by many futurists (including engineers, scientists, geologists, biologists, sociologists and other technical specialists who are involved in prediction and planning), well in advance of serious and irreversible harm. Equally ironic, is the propensity of business and political leaders to defer addressing these issues, postponing taking any action until tragedy is imminent.
A perfect illustrative example is the precipitous near-collapse of the world's financial markets,
central banking systems and the
global economy. Many saw it coming, but few failed to act. As one of my college professors once said (to a crowded lecture hall filled with somnolent students), "There's nothing wrong with selling at a profit while you know that you have one. But when people get too greedy, even if a
collapse in the markets seems imminent, they continue to hold on and to continue doing what they've been doing; usually until it is too late. That's how fortunes are lost."
Speaking candidly, Global Futurists (such as many of my colleagues and myself) actually must "factor in" this typical failure to take timely action in rendering forecasts.
A number of these MegaTrends (each of which carries with it a chance of catastrophic loss and a chance of tremendous gain utilizing the leverage that comes with informational arbitrage) and their associated impacts are briefly described below. I will speak about more of them in my next installment of this article.
The timeframe which I am speaking about is the next 5 to 15 years.
1) The United Nations will become increasingly irrelevant. The reasons for this, as well as the implications associated with it are discussed in my most recent article published in
The Internationalist Page Blog, at:
http://theinternationalistpage.blogspot.com/2011/09/un-becoming-obsolete-irrelevant.html;
2) The average Human attention span will decrease very significantly, interfering with the ability of students to learn conceptually and contextually. Many of our greatest prospective minds will be narrowly focused on the concerns of the moment, and their areas of expertise will be limited to the utilization or creation of technology. Communications, the art of conversation, and the quality of the written and spoken word will decrease, despite an increase in the frequency of brief messaging back and forth.
Non-verbal communication mechanisms and such phenomenal gifts as intuition and native ideation will atrophy as we abbreviate or eliminate virtually every aspect of Human interaction outside of the scope of the briefest frenzied signaling. De-personalized and de-socialized, our species will become an extension of the things which it has created to serve it.
George Orwell,
Aldous Huxley,
Issac Asimov and a host of other futurists from various disciplines were truly prescient, as I believe we shall see during these next five or ten years;
3) Human immunological responses, resiliency and recovery abilities will wane, ushering in a decline in the general level of public health. Despite some wonderful emerging
health care technologies, procedures and pharmacological treatments, we will, as a collective, be more vulnerable to diseases and to accelerated deterioration of health. Epidemiologists and experts at health care and
national security command and control protocols had best make preparations for a resurgence of some 'eliminated' diseases, as well as a plethora of treatment-resistant infections and some record-breaking pandemics;
4) Logistics, fulfillment and transport issues will become increasingly inefficient and technologically unsuitable, e.g., outmoded, to keep pace with the increasing demands for shipments of goods intranationally and worldwide (and to slow the potential for unfettered
economic growth) which are ordered via internet for delivery to the purchasers' homes or offices. With ordinary transportation becoming increasingly impractical, shopping trips will be taking place in cyberspace -- but the deliveries will have to take place in the real world, in real time and in accordance with the basic laws of physics. There's a serious divergence and a serious bottleneck. The costs associated with order processing, handling and shipping will skyrocket in response to the pressure imposed by increased demand, combined with with increasing government taxes and tariffs on transactions (analogous to the
Value-Added Tax) and on the
transportation industry. Ultimately, the purchaser will be made to pay;
5) An increasing percentage of the world's population will become poor, and the differences in living standards and amenities between the small percentage of wealthy persons to working-class (wage-earning) persons will increase to levels which have historically (albeit isolated to states and individual countries) fomented violent social upheavals and revolutions. With each economic contraction, this stratification increases. And with the adjusted increase in wages (actually a decrease in terms of purchasing power) and the increasing costs of necessities, this effect will be exacerbated and accelerated.
Remember that the future is subject to change if preventive or remedial action is taken in the present... but this would require a major change in historically-proven and deeply entrenched patterns of Human and societal behavior.
Douglas E Castle
http://SendingSignals.blogspot.com
http://TakingCommand.blogspot.com
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| Increasing leverage (risk) profiles of 5 major U.S. investment banking firms from 2003 to 2007. Everyone was well aware. But greed overtook a balanced perspective of risk versus return. No one believed that the easily-predictable outcome would actually become a crushing reality. |
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A recursive echo:
Ironically, these trends or tendencies are almost
invariably observed and noted by many futurists (including engineers, scientists, geologists, biologists, sociologists and other technical specialists who are involved in prediction and planning), well in advance of serious and irreversible harm. Equally ironic, is the propensity of business and political leaders to defer addressing these issues, postponing taking any action until tragedy is imminent. After disaster has rendered its casualties, there are accusations, recriminations and a host of plans made to prevent the recurrence of such events in the future. These plans are seldom put into place, allowing history to repeat itself at increasing amplitude.
