Showing posts with label the middle class. Show all posts
Showing posts with label the middle class. Show all posts

Thursday, April 9, 2009

SOME THINGS TO PONDER

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Dear Friends:

Please accept my humble apologies for not having written in a long while. I have spent a great deal of time discussing the global economy with too many people. Most of them want to place blame -- or to complain about the failure of national governments (and the loosely-bound "world government") to properly rescue a world which appears to be both economically and emotionally depressed -- or to ask me what I personally would offer by way of a suggestion to solve the problem. My response to this last question is always the same: "First, you have to give the resources to change Human Nature..." That usually earns its fair share of eye-rolling or the use of the once-popular expression, "Sheesh!" I am a sentimentalist lexicographer, and I enjoy the use of this exclamation. My British friends have a wonderful alternative, which is "No! Get off!"

Here are several things to ponder. They are a short list of observations, acknowledgements, trends and other items that I think are important.

BANKING AND CREDIT

A true credit "Catch 22" is helping to fuel economic contraction worldwide. Banks are taking their government bailout funds and...buying government securities, instead of providing business loans and consumer credit. Credit access is being cut, and credit standards are becoming increasingly stringent, except in cases where a business is self-financing just to liquidate its inventory or to put sales on its books.

Synopsis:
The new credit card scheme
Credit card companies are cutting people's limits below their outstanding balances without notification. » Why?

In a society where there is utter dependence upon credit for fuel, where savings are actually negative (e.g., where people have to pay for their ongoing expnses using borrowed funds), and immediate gratification is a consumption propellant, credit card companies have not only decided to drastically cut lines of credit (even for their very best customers), give belated (and embarrassing) notification of this bad news, and are almost universally charging over limit fees to customers who were not over their contractual limits. Without consumer credit, there can be no economic stimulus or recovery. Period. The credit card companies (affiliates of bailed-out and bloated banks) know this, of course, but it seems that they are not fully in accord to stimulate anyone's economy except that of their executives. If I were judgmental, I would call this type of action, immoral, illegal and treasonous....but, fortunately, I am not sitting in judgment.

If these institutions refuse to become reasonable, civilian credit facilities and a private lending and borrowing business will have to be cobbled together amongst entrepreneurs, vendors and suppliers to fund demand and growth. I would truly delight in seeing this type of a "grassroots" banking movement. Wouldn't you?

SOCIAL MEDIA

If Facebook were to become a nation, it would be the sixth most populous nation in the entire world. The trend toward social and business networking over the internet expands daily. The operators and hosts of these various media are very powerful indeed...we have entrusted them with virtually all of our personal and financial information, as well as with a large amount of our files and records. They offer us instant communication through cyberspace (Frank Herbert would have called it the "folding" of space in his celebrated DUNE series of science fiction books), which gives us a great deal of creative power -- but they hold the key to our destruction. How much do you trust these facilitators? What might make them turn into dominators or decimators? My career would evaporate in a millisecond if I were to be disengaged from social internet media. I sometimes worry about this.

Mark Joyner, a personal development consultant, prolific writer and powerful internet marketer (the inventor of Simpleology) recently sent out a mailing to subscribers to his courses which made the point about social media wonderfully. You have to respect Mark Joyner:


####
Douglas,


Many years ago Seth Godin promoted the importance of blogs ... I thought he was out of his mind.
Well, Seth was right on that one - and I was totally wrong.
Yes, I have my share of accurate predictions, but that was one where I had it wrong ...
Seth was right on another one that I predictedwould fail: his own website "Squidoo."
In fact, I am so willing to admit I was wrong that we are offering a new Cashmap you can downloadright now that will show you how to use Squidoo to get obscene traffic to your site:
http://www.simpleology.com/courses/squidoo/
So, this is an e-tip-of-the-hat to Seth Godin.
Mark
Mark Joyner

Founder of Simpleology
####

THE NEW WORLD ORDER (AGAIN)

Everyone (including Dan Brown, David Icke, Robert Ludlum) loves the notion of a conspiracy. Whether its government cover-ups, traitorous acts, or other manner of domination and puppeteering, it is always interesting to think about. A friend told me that it would not be surprising (Sheesh!) if certain world elitists had "planned" and orchestrated this global financial meltdown just to pave the way toward a New World Order. He mentioned the usual suspects...The Bilderbergers, Skull & Bones, The Trilateral Commission, The Council On Foreign Relations...he stopped short of naming the Illuminati, The Priory of Sion [Zion], and any former U.S. Presidents who had ever been peanut farmers.

Interestingly, the recent G20 Summit started stirring up ideas about neo-globalism and The New World Order. A wonderful article in the Financial Times weekly magazine brought this up for discussion. You'll find this article by going to http://pages.update.ft.com/us/newsletter/april-2009/us-default.htm, and you can download a .pdf of the whole edition of the magazine by clicking on http://www.mediafire.com/?ungcg2ozmjm. I believe that we will see a continuing trend toward globalism, a decreasing dominance by the United States, and an increasing firming up of the EU Members as a sub-alliance within this new G20 organization. Once an organization, subsidized by its constituent governments (and their respective ability to collect taxes), is created, it grows. G20 will grow into something bigger than the WTO or the UN, but these latter two will continue to exert their influence on world events.

INTERNET CONTROLS

Some years ago, there were pay toilets in the United States. There are still a number of gasoline stations who charge for air (the kind that surrounds us, but that we sometimes need to put into our tires). In Illinois (in the U.S.) there is serious talk about restricting internet access for young people -- someone always wants to contol access, tax or regulate anything that promises to permit the free flow of information. I believe this is because many of us believe that the people around us are as dangerous as we believe ourselves to be...and that we can even exploit them with punishment and payment. Censorship, like slavery, is about as likely to vanish from contemporary society as are toll booths on bridges.

You can download an article about this Illinois sensation at http://www.mediafire.com/?1oztyo00qzw. Parents want to protect their children from predators, obscenity, violence and bad influences. The easiest solution (since it is difficult to personally invest time in monitoring and mentoring children, and instilling values in them by virtue of example) is to keep them off of social media. This is rather like stopping terrorism by blocking overseas telephone calls. It is not likely to be successful.

What is likely to be successful is for governments worldwide to find innovative ways of taxing internet access -- right now we worry about cable, telephony and connection fees, but soon (within the next three years) internet access will be taxed; there are so many users, and so much dependence that governments will find this an irresistable solution for the repayment of all of the debt created by the global bailout of the failing private sector by the public sector.
LEADERSHIP AND GREATNESS

Intelligent leadership and intelligent writing are dying arts, and are subject to ever-diminishing standards and expectations. A new writer for THE NATIONAL NETWORKER (you can get a free subscription to this wonderful organization's newsletter by going to http://thetnnwomnigadget.blogspot.com/ , has written a passionate, plainly human essay on the topic of greatness. Yossi Feigenson, who will be a Featured Columnist with TNNW [A column titled, "REAL ESTATE - AND OTHER THINGS OF VALUE"] is a professional real estate broker -- but his also an apt student of Human behavior and a delightful conversationalist. Download Yossi's essay by clicking on http://www.mediafire.com/?2mgyiymynlw. He poses an interesting question: "When the opportunity to do something important arises, will you be ready?"

CAREER SURVIVAL SKILLS

The greatest civilizations in recorded history have been built on the efforts of the middle class, of middle management and middle children. The middle world has historically been a stabilizer and a buffer between the immoral robber barons and the indigent sucklings at the government's nipple (some of these latter people hate some of these former people, and vice versa).

The middle class, and middle management are fast disappearing. They are increasingly unemployed, without credit, without direction and without economic financial skills. The latchkey kids of the streets and the super-rich have wonderfully-honed survival skills, and cultivated resources. Unemployed middle management folks have very limited entrepreneurial and social skills. They are so used to conformism and dependencies that they have been rendered defenseless without a conventional career-to-retirement path to follow. These people have very limited alternatives; they can join the increasing ranks of the poor; they can become innovators and self-employed titans; or, they can cease to live. My bet is that many will join the ranks of the poor, and that many will come to hate the institutions that they once served and counted upon for protection from the realities of tight budgeting, salesmanship, fierce competition and cold fear. Expect a rise in violent crime, identity theft and pockets of anti-government groups forming their own hives and re-inventing their ideas about social structure.
The only portion of the middle class that will be given a pass from intolerable hardship and gut-tearing disillusionment will be those who go to work for the government in some form or fashion. As unemployment continues to rise, expect an increasing perecentage of the "middle" population to working for government agencies, government contractors and other public sector positions of bureaucratic creation and taxpayer funding. The ultimate tax base will be government employees simply tithing a portion of their paychecks back to the government -- this is reminiscent of waste recycling. We need private sector entrepreneurs, and we need them soon!

***


In closing, I wanted to wish all of you a happy and healthy holiday season, and to visit with me at three locations. Click. Lurk. Favoritize. Subscribe. Enjoy...






Faithfully,


Douglas Castle

KEYWORDS, TERMS AND ORGANIZATIONS:

globalism, CFR, NGO, UN, WTO, IMF, central bank, outsourcing, offshoring, capital markets, import, export, international trade, strategic alliances, e-commerce, entrepreneurship, social networking, banking, finance, trade, ventures, business, securities, stock exchanges, indexes, futurism, trends, citizen ambassadorship, enterprise, capitalism, international politics, commodities, prime rate, LIBOR, foreign currencies, foreign exchange, blogs, blogging, bloggers, aol, google, yahoo, msn, AP, news, media alerts, world government, world governments, international affairs, treaties, tariffs, trade restrictions, marketing, advertising, business development, arbitrage, obtaining capital, promotion, publicity, EU, NATO, military affairs, government regulation, trade restrictions, liquidity crisis, business opportunities, web-based businesses, communication, communications, technology, intelligence, embassies, consulates, business resources, Douglas Castle,The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, international politics, elections, time management, cyberspace, AI, energy, industry, productivity, Mixx, Digg, Technorati, Sphere, Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, LinkedIn, advertising, economics, strategy, management, cooperation, widgets, blidgets, links, incoterms, CCH, UCC, freight forwarding, custom house brokers, diversity, employment, culture, micro-loans, technological convergence, trends, financial planning, FOREX, futures, stock index, inflation, recession, sub-contracting, Department of Commerce, CIOF, the next generation, amnesty, humanitarianism, foreign aid, philanthropy, charity, LinkedIn, singularity, transportation, IT, intelligence, complexity theory, energy sources, shortages, climatic change, pop-culture, survivalism, mergers and acquisitions...

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

THE UNITED STATES: CRITICAL TIMES, CRITICAL CHOICES

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WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES.

Dear Friends:

I have chosen to dedicate this space to an article about the United States... The nation where I grew up (arguably), dreamed my first dreams, and have lived most of my life. A country often regarded as the "Leader Of All Nations," and the "Land Of Opportunity." My grandfather came to this country from Russia expecting to find the streets paved with gold.

At this moment, the United States is a nation at the crossroads, and is exhibiting an increasing dichotomy between its celebrated "American Way," and the harsh realities of 1) how it is now perceived by its own population, and 2) how it is now regarded by the rest of the world. The US is going through a trying period of very painful introspection and intense scrutiny by the other nations which inhabit its neighborhood on the planet.

For the US, these are critical times which demand critical choices...both by those of us who make our geological homes here, and by those of us who are outside of its physical borders. Troubled times create great opportunities for intelligent, enterprising individuals, as well as for pirates, unimpeded by conscience.

Whichever category that you have chosen to occupy, I present you with some information. Each of us has: Things to ponder. Plans to make. Actions to take.

1. A ZERO-GRAVITY DECISIONMAKING ENVIRONMENT.

We must do our thinking with the understanding that even the process of our observation, or even our inaction, will have an effect on the circumstances. Remember the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle? Whether we idly wait or act decisively and precipitously, our personal circumstances will be changed because of our choices. My favorite example is the case of the "ultimate conservative," who leaves his currency in his house safe while he "waits for things to stabilize." This poor fellow (probably living in Arkansas) is losing money daily, while he waits for stability -- and stability, despite its definition, is always temporary. There are actions to take, regardless of instability. We must hedge against domestic inflation, the declining value of the US Dollar, and the tempestuous credit markets. If the world is changing and we choose to hold still, we are being moved anyway.

Questions:

Because economies move in waves and cycles, at which point are we on the curve? What will the amplitude of the cycle be? How long will the cycle last? [We Economists like to quietly guess, and then cook up an explanation after the fact].

How do we best incorporate some form of "Chaos Cushioning" into all of our planning.? We must chart a course, but we must constantly monitor it, and be prepared to engage in evasive maneuvers. The whole notion of "Steady State" is a temporal illusion.

How do we avoid the very Human instinctual protection of denial, and dispassionately accept reality and the challenge of change? Our long-held beliefs, if proven unfounded, serve only to hinder and encumber us.

WHOM DO WE TRUST?

Every day we are inundated with information. It may be news radio, RSS feeds, newspapers, magazines, professional advisors, or political (or government agency) speeches. There is a great deal of information available -- so much so, that it has begun to sound like background noise. In this age of information overload, it has become increasingly difficult to 1) get anyone's attention, and 2) determine what we should focus on and what we should ignore. Going further, we must determine (through an increasingly ingrained facility of "sensorial triage") who to listen to [competence criterion] and if who to believe [the matter of trust]. We are constantly posed with the dilemma of judging the veracity of the message by judging the integrity of the messenger.

Knowing this, we have to develop the ability to selectively screen out the conflicted and avaricious self-promoters and purveyors of hidden agandas, and find human resources whom we can trust. They are rare. People in the United States are disenfranchised and disillusioned...they believe, by and large that lying is part of what should be expected of politicians, corporate CEOs and even publishers.

In his Laws Of Relationship Capital, publisher and author Adam J. Kovitz (THE NATIONAL NETWORKER) speaks about an individual's trustworthiness being one of the key variables which enters into the computation of that person's Relationship Capital value.

Author Jay Goldberg, in his critically-acclaimed book, HOW TO GET, KEEP AND BE WELL PAID IN A JOB (Outskirts Press) , invests almost a quarter of the text on dealing with ethical dilemmas in the workplace. Most of the means of dealing responsibly and ethically with the workplace situations addressed by Mr. Goldberg in his book would have seemed obvious to most Americans twenty years ago. I am obligated to report that the conventional wisdom of twenty years ago now has to be codified in a procedure manual. Twenty years ago, this book would not have found an adult market -- today, it is a secular bible. You can get direct information aout this book at http://outskirtspress.com/webpage.php?ISBN=9781432725297 . It's worth reading for any prospective employer as well as for any employee entering or re-entering the work force.

One of the most important investments of time which Americans (and, for that matter, everyone and anyone anywhere) can make is in choosing whom to trust. The persons and business entities which will successfully differentiate themselves from the chattering throng of persistent competitors for our attention and our money will be those who:

  • Have proven their trustworthiness and integrity (character);
  • Have a unique and fascinating way of presenting themselves, their products and their services (innovation/creativity); and
  • Have something to offer which is of great utility and exceptional quality (superiority).

The three simple points above comprise the foundation of branding. Trust is becoming an increasingly significant differentiator in the building of a brand.

In a world of so many choices, where things are bought and sold by and from strangers to strangers through the Internet, and where everything seems so accessible...trust is becoming a critical component in decisionmaking. This is a belated return to a time where one person would say to another, "My word is my bond," and mean it...when a person's reputation for integrity was truly prized. A good reputation was worth earning and defending -- sometimes in a duel.

In sum, Americans would like to know that if someone speaks to them of the threat of "Weapons Of Mass Destruction (just an example, folks)," that those weapons really exist, and that the threat is genuinely imminent. People are certainly jaded, but there is societal sea change in the direction of trust. I am glad about it.

While nations engender and even promote distrust to control their respective subjects or citizens, individuals will increasingly run the contrary course of building and seeking trust.

WHAT IS "EQUITY," ANYWAY? AND WHAT IS/ARE/WERE SAVINGS?

A hypothetical discussion overheard in a bar:

If I can have the use of something without having to own it, isn't that just as good as owning it? If I can make small monthly payments to obtain the use of a car or a home which I could never afford to purchase outright...if I can live like a multimillionaire on a peasant's salary, why shouldn't I? Why wait for years and years to enjoy a life of luxury if I can get it now? If a financial institution offers me credit, doesn't it mean that I'm worthy?...after all, bankers and financial experts would never offer me a loan or a credit line if they weren't certain that I was a good risk, right? Right? Hey! Why is everybody giving me dirty looks? What'd I say? And why is Douglas Castle italicizing all of my words?

We are suffering from a deeply encultured INSTANT GRATIFICATION habit, fueled by the excessive availability of credit. I am calling it "credit" because nobody likes to use the "D - Word." <debt>

Sadly, most Americans are slaves to credit. An increasing portion of personal post-tax income goes to paying off high monthly loan and lease payments. Wages are used to service these payments when savings accounts are nonexistent. When wages disappear, debts go unpaid. When debts go unpaid, repossessions, foreclosures and other undignified and uncomfortable things happen.

As of the date of this writing, the majority of US citizens are so enslaved by debt that they are from between four to six paychecks away from being completely dispossessed? The term "dispossessed" is a politically correct euphemism for "out in the street." We should all feel mighty insecure.

Ironically, while our government can and does print money to pay its debts (although this practice tends to devalue our currency and to fuel inflation), individuals are not permitted to avail themselves of this printshop panacea for fear of incarceration, which can be every bit as unpleasant as poverty, except for the "advantages" of "government-subsidized housing" and "gourmet government dining."

Credit availability drives prices skyward, too. It's human nature: When I know that I can scrape up enough money to make the monthly payment, why should I care about the cost of "buying" the damned thing? Why, if I earn 50,000 USD per year, I can drive out of the auto-dealer's showroom with a 34,000 USD car! Why shouldn't I?

Americans tend to dis-save (e.g., spend more than they actually earn), whereas many Europeans and Asians customarily save and accumulate wealth to provide for the future, and for future generations. This is as responsible as it is romantic and charming.

Relatively speaking, as inflation skyrockets, the Dollar plummets, and jobs are being exported, Americans are getting poorer and poorer than their European and Chinese counterparts.

America's assets are either owned by massive financial institutions (many of which are now failing), or by foreign interests. Our precipitous loss is everyone else's gain. During the course of the next several years, the United States will be a bargain basement for the greater Global Community. The Middle Class, upon whose collective back the greatness of this country was built, is evaporating. Americans are poor, but we don't quite see it yet...we're like the fellow in the movies who is walking about, yelling and screaming, but no one hears him (think "The Sixth Sense" or "Ghost"), and he can't seem to get anybody's attention. That's because he is DEAD but DOESN'T KNOW IT.

THE FINAL FRONTIER FOR VALUE-ADDED.

Americans will not be inventing too much that is new during these next few years, with the exception of advancements in Nanotechnology, Stem Cell viability, Technological Convergence, Artificial Intelligence and nuclear energy provided through Thorium-based reactors. In fact, I would rather be invested in thorium claims than in a portfolio of exchange- traded stocks. Thorium Energy, Inc. is a company with no operations, no management, and with all of its money invested underground. Literally. A share of stock is only as valuable as the competency of the company's management multiplied by the brazenness of its public relations firm -- but thorium, rare earth elements, and other non-precious (a misnomer) resources lying beneath this planet's surface are not subject to the human frailties and the frequent revelations that shock the stock market.

Americans will, however, make product advances in terms of the bundling and re-packaging of existing information and communications technologies. We are still a nation of ingenious marketeers and tinkers, and that is our greatest remaining gift. The irony here is that while we will be comming up with these ceaseless innovations here at home, the manufacturing and servicing will most likely be outsourced to China and India, and the largest global markets will be Asia, the European Union, some of the Slavic countries and some of the Latin-American countries, as well.

Thank you for joining me. It was a pleasure to take a break from the Oil Crisis for a short while.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

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