SOME NOTABLE TRENDS AND SIGNALS: THE TRANSPARENT SOCIETY - April, 2009

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THE TRANSPARENT SOCIETY

Dear Friends:

Several trends and signals have come to my attention that I would like to share with you. Please use the information wisely, and conduct your own research (if you are so inclined) to confirm or debunk my observations and insights.

GLOBAL WARMING

This news item is fresh off the press at the NEW YORK TIMES:

"E.P.A. (the United States Environmental Protection Agency) to Clear the Way for Regulation of Warming Gases."

"The agency on Friday is expected to formally declare carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases to be pollutants that threaten public health and welfare."

Please read more at http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na .

Upon second glance, this is actually a multiple message, and here are some of the threads to follow:

1. Global Warming has now been fully accepted by most of the world's governmental decisionmakers as an indisputable scientific fact -- that it is, indeed, a murderous juggernaut headed our way;

2. Regulators in the U.S. and G20 believe that human activities contribute significantly to Global Warming, and that by changing our ways and our standards, we will be able to either significantly mitigate or forestall the effects of Global Warming;

3. We should expect increased environmental compliance audits, expenses, penalties and taxes as a result of this conclusion and the ensuing regulatory intervention;

4. This should be seen as a major victory by environmentalists;

5. This should be seen as potentially economically discouraging to new and existing businesses (as it represents a signifcant element of increased compliance costs and prosecutorial risk), and as a slight, but possible, hindrance to economic recovery.

6. This may encourage some investment in the technological sector in terms of developing means of reducing or processing gaseous emissions. I do not, however, go so far as to predict an increase in the sales or share price of Beano, or other companies involved in similar businesses.

7. The imposition by the EPA of regulations on US businesses will affect trade viability in international commerce as international co-ventures and transactions will have to conform (whether inbound or outbound)to EPA guidelines. Expect the regulatory bodies of many nations to follow the example of the EPA.

If this trend toward governmental intervention and oversight helps prevent or mitigate the allegedly disasterous effects of Global Warming, it will have indeed been a positive one. If Global Warming is unaffected, it will just have been a further intrusion by government-at-large on the private sector, both in the US and Internationally -- this would indeed be an Inconvenient Truth.

My personal contribution toward staving off Global Warming will be to reduce the amount of CO2 I emit when I spout off hot air. I will also encourage others to minimize their exhalations and expulsions (from all manner of orifices), as well.

INTERNATIONAL STRIFE

There is significant opposing troop movement in the direction of Afganistan. Many US troops (being removed from a still-unstabilized Iraq), as well as other "allied" troops will be amassing forces in and around Afganistan. This will have to incite increasing hostilities between Pakistan and the nations of the West engaged in the interminable "War On Terror." This will also continue the trend of friendlier relations between the West and India, Pakistan's principal nemesis. Did someone once say "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"? Let's watch this play out.

Expect continued histrionics, threats and widely-heralded displays of military ineptitude (i.e., failed rocket, bomb and satellite tests) on the part of North Korea. Certainly not during the current regime, or any familial successor to it.

Darfur, and other emerging nations which are not regarded as politically significant, affluent, or oil-producing, will continue in unabated carnage and suffering while the world superpowers stay focused on economic (recession-related) and environmental issues, rather than on sociological and humanitarian ones.

INTERNET SOCIAL MEDIA

Facebook, Twitter and other social media are finding adherents, members and addicts in increasing numbers daily. While this represents an increase in the qualtity and diversity of Human communications, it also represents a continuing tendency toward "virtual" relationships and the de-personalization of business and human affairs. The art and leisure of socializing are being rapidly supplanted by terse, impersonal communications. These communications are readily accessible by government agencies and any interested (and persistent) third parties, so privacy is a fast-disappearing luxury. Welcome to the Transparent Society.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

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