AS GOES THE USA, SO TOO GO THE REST - USUALLY

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .

---

WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES.

Dear Friends:

The United States has traditionally been viewed by the majority of the world's population as an initiator, a leader, a guide to follow...an example to emulate. This is nothing new -- it dates back to the American Revolution, and America's rebellion against the British in the interests of 1) less regulation; 2) lower taxes and tariffs; 3) freedom of expression; 4) unbridaled entrepreneurship, capitalism and free enterprise; 5) minimal government involvement or intrusion into the personal lives of individuals and into the commercial affairs business enterprises -- each of these, in rapid retrospect, looks like a presidential campaign speech "talking point". My apologies.

The lead time between initiating an activity and seeing its ultimate result is sometimes lengthy. Early followers are often doomed to the fate of those whom they have chosen to follow -- only at a later time. Countries who have mimicked or followed US ideologies, technologies and political structure have frequently benefitted in some fashion, but have invariably paid a dear, albeit deferred, price. The lunacy of the lemmings -- going for that last swim. over the cliff into the ocean.

The reason (and I do have one) for the preamble that you just lip-synched your way through was to arrive at the following basic assertion, to wit: Nations which follow in the footsteps of the United States will eventually slip in the same brand of poop or get sucked down and swallowed into the same bed of quicksand that devoured the US pioneers who preceded them. A smart government understands this, and does not blindly continue to follow the US into a pit; they instead constantly monitor the progression of events in the US, and adjust trajectory accordingly. This requires a great deal of talent.

LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

Note: You should not, as a rule, follow anyone blindly when you have the wonderful gift of long-range vision. Do not just plot a course -- monitor the course, and be prepared for course correction as may be required. Do not commit to any course of action which does not have a maximum timeframe, a maximum budget and a constant review process.

TRENDS -- THESE NEXT TWO YEARS IN THE USA:

1. Increasing US unemployment through attrition and reduced jobs creation because of a severe domestic recession, further enhanced by a global recession. I believe that actual unemployment (as opposed to the statistics reported by the Unemployment Departments and Labor Departments) to exceed 8% by March, 2009. Expect people to be revisiting the expression "depression" within the next six months. With this increase in unemployment, expect a real dollar decrease in GDP, housing starts, construction, exports, investment portfolios (as well as retirement pensions and portfolios), a decrease in consumer spending, a decline in the value of the US Dollar and all dollar-denominated or dollar-backed instruments, increased foreign ownership and control of U.S. properties and investments. Expect an increase in confrontational and violent crime, and in the traditional calls for more rigorous law enforcement, freer prosecutorial lattitude and harsher prison sentences.

2. More and bigger government, more regulation, less lattitude, and more brain drain. Expect the Government to virtually nationalize and control (not merely as an overseer or a trustee, but as an owner) the commercial banking business, and all of the institutions surviving the purge taking place at present. The idea of the "cashless society" is very close at hand. In addition, the US Treasury Department and several other esteemed federal government agencies are exploring ways to exploit various existing technologies to track all movements of persons, vehicles and money. Do not be taken by surprise if the IRS and other government functionaries begin a policy of directly debiting your checking account for amounts which you may owe, or which a government agency "assesses" you owe it. Think about E-Z Pass, IRS Electronic Filing and Payment, RFID implants, and the like. As Delilah said to Samson after giving him history's most infamous crewcut..."How could you give me this great power and expect me not to use it?"

3. An increasing percentage of employed people will be working for the government, for government agencies, and for major contractors virtually controlled by the government. Of the existing labor force, it is estimated that, at present, 1 in 4 persons works for a government (federal state, or local), government agency, or major contractor. You should expect this to become closer to 1 in 3 persons during the course of 2009, due to the extreme loss of corporate positions and the slight increase in government positions for managing the industries which the government seeks to stabilize through privatization.

4. Commercial and industrial real estate will drop precipitously in value as cyberspace becomes the venue of choice for entrepreneurial businesses, and better-established companies which want to minimize costs by eliminating salespersons, cashiers, display racks and replacing them with e-commerce shopping carts supported by thumbnail product sketches.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5. Expect rapid advances in stem-cell research and its applied technologies. Conversely, expect slowdowns (due to a lack of available capital) in nanotechnology, alternative energy technologies and new technological start-up companies. Most start-up companies will be selling re-packaged bundles of existing technologies through artful marketing.

These are a few of the things that you can expect to happen. Candidly, and lamentably, I believe that I am even a bit optimistic in my portrayal of the above scenario.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Faithfully,

LLLLLLLL___________--------------

Douglas Castle

THE GLOBAL FUTURIST

TRENDS at 7 August 2008

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .

---

WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES.

Dear Friends:

It is almost the middle of August, 2008, and the economy of the World is in turmoil. The exact causality is not known, despite what the pundits might tell us after the fact, as they usually do. Sadly, they give very conditional and nebulous advice in terms of facing what lies unseen ahead of us, but they enjoy a lively ex post facto (e.g., too late) debate about why things happened...about the why of history.

The three principal benefits of studying history are 1) understanding human eccentricities and propensities; 2) understanding the conditions at present, and how we have arrived at the position which we are in; and, lastly, 3) to predict the future.

Please take a moment and re-read the top line, printed in honest blue. Some crucial trends (and their projected course for the next three years) are cited below for you to think about, investigate and act upon if you are inclined to maximize your potential benefits and to minimize your potential losses.

UNEMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT and ENTREPRENEURSHIP

With Fortune 500 Companies and the Financial Institutions Sector losing credibility, liquidity, market share, and opportunities for upward mobility, unemployment will rise to levels not seen since the Great Depression in the United States, with the World following at a short lag. Many of the best US minds will "outsource themselves" to become expatriates in other countries with greater opportunity. In a wicked twist of social darwinism, the void in the United States will be filled with less-skilled immigrants belatedly chasing the American Dream. The remaining major corporate employers will hire these individuals at lower wages, lower standards and with the expected result of declining productivity and quality of service.

I suspect that US and G-8 corporations will continue to outsource every single function which is not geographically sensitive. At this moment, the US is an exporter of jobs, training, investible dollars and talent. Despite the decline of the US Dollar, expect this trend to continue, and at an accelerating pace.

The principal survival skills in the coming economy will be frugal living, flexibility, mobility and entrepreneurship. Job security will become something that can no longer be vested through seniority - it will have to be made by each individual through finding a niche and a means of profiting by serving it. Education will be far less of a success-determining factor than innovation. Entrepreneurship is powerful, personal and portable. Expertise in certain vertical technological fields will be almost as potent as entrepreneurship. A combination of technical expertise and entrepreneurship, using the World Wide Web as a medium will indeed be an unbeatable combination.

I would suggest that you carefully review author Adam J. Kovitz's Laws Of Relationship Capital , and take a second look at author Jay Goldberg's straightforward, no-nonsense book titled: HOW TO GET, KEEP AND BE WELL-PAID IN A JOB. (Outskirts Press, Denver, CO.) if you are trying to seek a position within the lower ranks of the corporate heirarchy. The book is superb for workforce returnees, as well as beginners. In the economy to come, every one of us who is not blessed with an enormous trust fund will be a beginner.

THE "GREEN-COLLAR" INDUSTRIES REVOLUTION

Through my work with the CHILDREN'S INTERNATIONAL OBESITY FOUNDATION, I was fortunate enough to meet Executive Director Felix Urrutia at the NYC Police Athletic League (PAL). He is, in so many ways, a kindred spirit. While we met based upon PAL's increasing focus on overweight and obesity, especially amoung the urban ethnic population(who are hardest hit by any social or economic crisis), our conversations have taken us further into the realm of PAL's mission, a great part of which involves getting at-risk youth and youth exiting the prison system to learn skills and to become gainfully employed as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Mr. Urrutia introduced me to the growing world of "green-collar" jobs, careers involved in hydroponic gardening, ecology, environment, natural resource sustenance, recycling and numerous other ecologically-grounded pursuits. PAL actually trains these youth and puts them to work, giving them an opportunity to earn a decent, honest living, without being judged or stigmatized as "ghetto kids" or as "ex-convicts". PAL, in its steadfast dedication to its mission, is a visionary; a pioneer in a new job market which is open to everyone. with growing concerns over the environment and climatic change, watch for an increase in attention and opportunity in the 'green-collar" sector. I had, in my stereotying and snobbery, misjudged PAL.

My favorite foundation (CIOF) and PAL are involved in numerous ventures because of their (PAL's) surprisingly aggressive attitude toward stopping violence by increasing education, employment and self-worth among disadvantaged urban youth. Keep an eye on Felix Urrutia and Bobby Ferazi (who works with newly-released former offenders), both of PAL. They have not only found a wonderful niche, but they are opening it for others to enter. I believe it will be a growth industry through all urban cities in the US and worlwideWelcome to the Green-Collar Revolution, and a chance at reducing violence and despair. And to think that I had always thought PAL was just about boxing. I am proud to count these Pioneers for Humanity among my friends.

If I may wax poetic: I found some greens among the blues. I now sport a PAL golf shirt.

CAREERS INVOLVING WEATHER, CLIMATIC CHANGE and THE ENVIRONMENT

Just as the Green-Collar Revolution is taking off, expect an increasing number of careers in meteorology and environmentalism; the first, because climatic change is a "government-sanctioned" reality, and businesses are concerned about its effects; the second, because every G-8 government is regulating with increased ferocity against environmental abuses, and businesses need to be in full compliance with these tougher regulations. Further, and for the sake of the public's perception, each one of these major companies wants to buy penance by coming up with "save the environment" and environmental conservation programs. While this latter conduct may seem somewhat like a Mafia Don giving a tithe to the church, the ultimate result is that it is a stimulus to this vertical area of employment opportunity.

A quick synopsis of what has been said so far: While conventional careers are unraveling, opportunities in green-collar, weather-related and environmental areas are on the rise. If you do not choose to join one of these vertical sectors, you will have to be an entrepreneur.

CAREERS INVOLVING ALTERNATIVE FUELS and ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

Every G-8 member nation has become concerned with the need for sources of alternative energy. Technical careers in alternative energy research, development and implementation will be growing over these next few years. Ironically, many of these employment opportunities will be sponsored by the recently engorged petroleum companies. These petro-giants 1) have the money, 2) want to either control or squelch these alternative technologies, and 3) want to show the general public, comprised of victimized, wary consumers, that they are "doing something about the energy crisis." That phrase is becoming a pre-emptive defensive public relations mantra for the Sisters of the Oiligopoly.

Most of the dollars associated with these careers will be allocable to the atomic energy alternative, with an emphasis on thorium-fueled reactors. Most of the residual dollars will be allocable to the development of hybrid, solar and wind technologies. Very little of this allocation will go in the direction of "clean coal" (now there's a paradox) because of the impracticality of dealing with its inherent toxicity and pollution potential.

THE RE-EMPOWERMENT OF THE UNITED NATIONS

The United Nations, an institution whose merits and relevance are hotly debated in the United States and other G-8 member nations, will rise to increased prominence as the United States strives to recover credibility, cooperation and friendships lost or injured during the last six years. Many present-day detractors of the UN will find themselves knocking on its doors for assistance in building improved international trade relationships. I am hopeful that the UN can meet this need, and that it will act as an honest arbiter and broker.

THE FURTHER RISE OF NGOs and CAUSE-BASED ORGANIZATIONS

As discussed in numerous earlier posts, NGOs (Non-Government Observers, or Non-Government Organizations) and other cause-based organizations will continue to grow in size and influence. The traditional capitalistic model of the for-profit enterprise is under fire, and while profits may indeed fuel progress, the public has become increasingly disapproving of their social, environmental and ethical performance. Capitalism, as any other system, has its negatives and toxic byproducts. An increasingly traumatized public has become disenchanted with "big business". This perception comes and goes - it is part of a cycle roughly synchronized (albeit at a lag) with such variables as 1) stock market and capital market performance, 2) publicized prosecutions of corporate executives, and 3) rising unemployment and news of layoffs.

A TRADING EXCHANGE FOR NON-PRECIOUS METALS

It was inevitable. As the capital markets become perceived as riskier and less stable in general, the investing public (and the institutions which manage wealth) needs to find a new arena. Low interest rates, erratic stock market performance and a renewed interest in in-the-ground commodities have paved the way for trading exchanges in non-precious metals and minerals. Thorium and the Rare Earth Elements have been receiving a great deal of attention in these emerging micro-exchanges. The effect of this new "marketization," over time, will be an increase in the liquidity of these non-precious metals, and an increased opportunity for all investors to participate in these investments without their having to be owners and operators of mines. It will likely also result in price increases for every one of the traded commodities as trading activity and exchange formalization and acceptance grow.

On August 1st, the following article appeared in Section C-1 of the WALL STREET JOURNAL:

"The New Chemistry of Speculation
Contracts in Metals, Food Show Difficulty in Placing Shackles on Market Bets By IANTHE JEANNE DUGAN -August 1, 2008-

Even as Washington attempts to crack down on speculation in food, fuel and metals, Wall Street is rolling out new ways to bring in money.

In May, Credit Suisse Group and Deutsche Bank AG began offering investments in iron ore, a component of steel. About one billion tons of iron ore is mined a year but isn't traded on a futures exchange. So it has been virtually impossible for speculators to bet on price movements.

Carl Weine

The investment banks were inundated with interest in iron-ore deals, which function like futures contracts. In just two months, investors and hedgers took on more than $500 million of notional exposure -- about 2.7 million metric tons -- making this one of the biggest commodities markets to spring up almost overnight.

The new markets show how hard it will be for legislators to curb commodities speculation.Such trading is spreading to an array of other goods, from jet fuel to chicken, that have been off-limits to investors because they aren't traded on futures markets. They also are offered for commodities already bought and sold on global exchanges, including crude oil, corn and coffee. Through Goldman Sachs Group Inc., clients can invest in palm oil and other biofuel components. Deutsche Bank is trading ruthenium, an obscure metal used in fountain pens. Along with other firms, Deutsche is expanding into rhodium, used in catalytic converters. Deals are being teed up in lithium and "rare earth" metals..." [end of WSJ quote]

As always, thank you for taking time to look into the future with me.

Stay tuned for (cue drumroll...) :

*GROWTH IN THE SELF-IMPROVEMENT AND "INTROSPECTIVE" MARKETS

*CYBERSPACE and TECHNOLOGICAL CONFLUENCE WEAKENS THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

*PRIVATE LENDING and FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS DISPLACE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

*GREAT STRIDES TO BE MADE IN GENETIC TECHNOLOGIES (BIO-ENGINEERING), NANO-TECHNOLOGIES and AI (Artificial Intelligence)

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

THE UNITED STATES: CRITICAL TIMES, CRITICAL CHOICES

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .

---

WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES.

Dear Friends:

I have chosen to dedicate this space to an article about the United States... The nation where I grew up (arguably), dreamed my first dreams, and have lived most of my life. A country often regarded as the "Leader Of All Nations," and the "Land Of Opportunity." My grandfather came to this country from Russia expecting to find the streets paved with gold.

At this moment, the United States is a nation at the crossroads, and is exhibiting an increasing dichotomy between its celebrated "American Way," and the harsh realities of 1) how it is now perceived by its own population, and 2) how it is now regarded by the rest of the world. The US is going through a trying period of very painful introspection and intense scrutiny by the other nations which inhabit its neighborhood on the planet.

For the US, these are critical times which demand critical choices...both by those of us who make our geological homes here, and by those of us who are outside of its physical borders. Troubled times create great opportunities for intelligent, enterprising individuals, as well as for pirates, unimpeded by conscience.

Whichever category that you have chosen to occupy, I present you with some information. Each of us has: Things to ponder. Plans to make. Actions to take.

1. A ZERO-GRAVITY DECISIONMAKING ENVIRONMENT.

We must do our thinking with the understanding that even the process of our observation, or even our inaction, will have an effect on the circumstances. Remember the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle? Whether we idly wait or act decisively and precipitously, our personal circumstances will be changed because of our choices. My favorite example is the case of the "ultimate conservative," who leaves his currency in his house safe while he "waits for things to stabilize." This poor fellow (probably living in Arkansas) is losing money daily, while he waits for stability -- and stability, despite its definition, is always temporary. There are actions to take, regardless of instability. We must hedge against domestic inflation, the declining value of the US Dollar, and the tempestuous credit markets. If the world is changing and we choose to hold still, we are being moved anyway.

Questions:

Because economies move in waves and cycles, at which point are we on the curve? What will the amplitude of the cycle be? How long will the cycle last? [We Economists like to quietly guess, and then cook up an explanation after the fact].

How do we best incorporate some form of "Chaos Cushioning" into all of our planning.? We must chart a course, but we must constantly monitor it, and be prepared to engage in evasive maneuvers. The whole notion of "Steady State" is a temporal illusion.

How do we avoid the very Human instinctual protection of denial, and dispassionately accept reality and the challenge of change? Our long-held beliefs, if proven unfounded, serve only to hinder and encumber us.

WHOM DO WE TRUST?

Every day we are inundated with information. It may be news radio, RSS feeds, newspapers, magazines, professional advisors, or political (or government agency) speeches. There is a great deal of information available -- so much so, that it has begun to sound like background noise. In this age of information overload, it has become increasingly difficult to 1) get anyone's attention, and 2) determine what we should focus on and what we should ignore. Going further, we must determine (through an increasingly ingrained facility of "sensorial triage") who to listen to [competence criterion] and if who to believe [the matter of trust]. We are constantly posed with the dilemma of judging the veracity of the message by judging the integrity of the messenger.

Knowing this, we have to develop the ability to selectively screen out the conflicted and avaricious self-promoters and purveyors of hidden agandas, and find human resources whom we can trust. They are rare. People in the United States are disenfranchised and disillusioned...they believe, by and large that lying is part of what should be expected of politicians, corporate CEOs and even publishers.

In his Laws Of Relationship Capital, publisher and author Adam J. Kovitz (THE NATIONAL NETWORKER) speaks about an individual's trustworthiness being one of the key variables which enters into the computation of that person's Relationship Capital value.

Author Jay Goldberg, in his critically-acclaimed book, HOW TO GET, KEEP AND BE WELL PAID IN A JOB (Outskirts Press) , invests almost a quarter of the text on dealing with ethical dilemmas in the workplace. Most of the means of dealing responsibly and ethically with the workplace situations addressed by Mr. Goldberg in his book would have seemed obvious to most Americans twenty years ago. I am obligated to report that the conventional wisdom of twenty years ago now has to be codified in a procedure manual. Twenty years ago, this book would not have found an adult market -- today, it is a secular bible. You can get direct information aout this book at http://outskirtspress.com/webpage.php?ISBN=9781432725297 . It's worth reading for any prospective employer as well as for any employee entering or re-entering the work force.

One of the most important investments of time which Americans (and, for that matter, everyone and anyone anywhere) can make is in choosing whom to trust. The persons and business entities which will successfully differentiate themselves from the chattering throng of persistent competitors for our attention and our money will be those who:

• Have proven their trustworthiness and integrity (character);
• Have a unique and fascinating way of presenting themselves, their products and their services (innovation/creativity); and
• Have something to offer which is of great utility and exceptional quality (superiority).

The three simple points above comprise the foundation of branding. Trust is becoming an increasingly significant differentiator in the building of a brand.

In a world of so many choices, where things are bought and sold by and from strangers to strangers through the Internet, and where everything seems so accessible...trust is becoming a critical component in decisionmaking. This is a belated return to a time where one person would say to another, "My word is my bond," and mean it...when a person's reputation for integrity was truly prized. A good reputation was worth earning and defending -- sometimes in a duel.

In sum, Americans would like to know that if someone speaks to them of the threat of "Weapons Of Mass Destruction (just an example, folks)," that those weapons really exist, and that the threat is genuinely imminent. People are certainly jaded, but there is societal sea change in the direction of trust. I am glad about it.

While nations engender and even promote distrust to control their respective subjects or citizens, individuals will increasingly run the contrary course of building and seeking trust.

WHAT IS "EQUITY," ANYWAY? AND WHAT IS/ARE/WERE SAVINGS?

A hypothetical discussion overheard in a bar:

If I can have the use of something without having to own it, isn't that just as good as owning it? If I can make small monthly payments to obtain the use of a car or a home which I could never afford to purchase outright...if I can live like a multimillionaire on a peasant's salary, why shouldn't I? Why wait for years and years to enjoy a life of luxury if I can get it now? If a financial institution offers me credit, doesn't it mean that I'm worthy?...after all, bankers and financial experts would never offer me a loan or a credit line if they weren't certain that I was a good risk, right? Right? Hey! Why is everybody giving me dirty looks? What'd I say? And why is Douglas Castle italicizing all of my words?

We are suffering from a deeply encultured INSTANT GRATIFICATION habit, fueled by the excessive availability of credit. I am calling it "credit" because nobody likes to use the "D - Word." <debt>

Sadly, most Americans are slaves to credit. An increasing portion of personal post-tax income goes to paying off high monthly loan and lease payments. Wages are used to service these payments when savings accounts are nonexistent. When wages disappear, debts go unpaid. When debts go unpaid, repossessions, foreclosures and other undignified and uncomfortable things happen.

As of the date of this writing, the majority of US citizens are so enslaved by debt that they are from between four to six paychecks away from being completely dispossessed? The term "dispossessed" is a politically correct euphemism for "out in the street." We should all feel mighty insecure.

Ironically, while our government can and does print money to pay its debts (although this practice tends to devalue our currency and to fuel inflation), individuals are not permitted to avail themselves of this printshop panacea for fear of incarceration, which can be every bit as unpleasant as poverty, except for the "advantages" of "government-subsidized housing" and "gourmet government dining."

Credit availability drives prices skyward, too. It's human nature: When I know that I can scrape up enough money to make the monthly payment, why should I care about the cost of "buying" the damned thing? Why, if I earn 50,000 USD per year, I can drive out of the auto-dealer's showroom with a 34,000 USD car! Why shouldn't I?

Americans tend to dis-save (e.g., spend more than they actually earn), whereas many Europeans and Asians customarily save and accumulate wealth to provide for the future, and for future generations. This is as responsible as it is romantic and charming.

Relatively speaking, as inflation skyrockets, the Dollar plummets, and jobs are being exported, Americans are getting poorer and poorer than their European and Chinese counterparts.

America's assets are either owned by massive financial institutions (many of which are now failing), or by foreign interests. Our precipitous loss is everyone else's gain. During the course of the next several years, the United States will be a bargain basement for the greater Global Community. The Middle Class, upon whose collective back the greatness of this country was built, is evaporating. Americans are poor, but we don't quite see it yet...we're like the fellow in the movies who is walking about, yelling and screaming, but no one hears him (think "The Sixth Sense" or "Ghost"), and he can't seem to get anybody's attention. That's because he is DEAD but DOESN'T KNOW IT.

THE FINAL FRONTIER FOR VALUE-ADDED.

Americans will not be inventing too much that is new during these next few years, with the exception of advancements in Nanotechnology, Stem Cell viability, Technological Convergence, Artificial Intelligence and nuclear energy provided through Thorium-based reactors. In fact, I would rather be invested in thorium claims than in a portfolio of exchange- traded stocks. Thorium Energy, Inc. is a company with no operations, no management, and with all of its money invested underground. Literally. A share of stock is only as valuable as the competency of the company's management multiplied by the brazenness of its public relations firm -- but thorium, rare earth elements, and other non-precious (a misnomer) resources lying beneath this planet's surface are not subject to the human frailties and the frequent revelations that shock the stock market.

Americans will, however, make product advances in terms of the bundling and re-packaging of existing information and communications technologies. We are still a nation of ingenious marketeers and tinkers, and that is our greatest remaining gift. The irony here is that while we will be comming up with these ceaseless innovations here at home, the manufacturing and servicing will most likely be outsourced to China and India, and the largest global markets will be Asia, the European Union, some of the Slavic countries and some of the Latin-American countries, as well.

Thank you for joining me. It was a pleasure to take a break from the Oil Crisis for a short while.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

PLEASE, SIR....I MUST INSIST ON ANOTHER (OR THREE)

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .

---

WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES

(LOOK AT THE EXCITING MONTAGES. THEY ARE COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT.)

Dear Readers:

This post is merely a re-referencing of three other posts, which I would like for you to read immediately, or at least after you've had your second cup of coffee. I am taking a leap here, because I am only too keenly aware that many of my brightest and most faithful readers actually prefer prune juice as their accelerant of choice. Incidentally, you might be interested in this tidbit of factual information: Did you know that Dr. Pepper soda is simply Coca-Cola with prune juice added to it? .

Here are the references:

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/2008/04/please-sirid-like-another.html

THE CHILDREN'S INTERNATIONAL OBESITY FOUNDATION BLOG (most recent posting)

THE INTERNATIONALIST PAGE BLOG (most recent article)

I believe that you will find these articles to be of great interest, as well as a helpful planning tool, with just a small bit of arm-twisting for charity. I make no apologies.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

THE KING IS DEAD- LONG LIVE THE KING

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .

---

WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES

Dear Friends:

The title of this post should bring a smile to the wrinkled face of every Egyptologist or student of secret societies. Throughout the world, and principally in the United States, we are experiencing a radical shakeup in the Citizenry's faith and trust in the Government, and its duly-chartered and licensed institutions.
The scenario is disillusioning enough to bring even some of the most narcoleptic proponents of begrudging apathy to a state of alarm, consternation and re-evaluation. When you wake up to discover that your paradise is actually a prison, and that your protectors are truly your captors, the psychological ramifications are frightening.

The administration in power in The United States, accompanied by a dwindling number of disenheartened allies, is fighting an endless "war" against terrorism, which has greatly increased instability in the Middle east; alienated many western allies and trading partners; put the country into massive debt, much of which is held by other nations (e.g., as creditors); caused a precipitous decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar and massive inflation, principally driven by unprecedented oil-price increases and resultant cost-push increases in all transportation-dependent services and products; precipitated steepening unemployment and declining output (largely due to outsourcing, offshoring and a decline in domestic initiative and entrepreneurship), and the virtual elimination of the "checks and balances" prescribed by the U.S. Constitution (as well as the concept of "due process under the law," which no court has the testicular fortitude to opine upon, let alone rule upon), which is largely disregarded by the occupants of the White House for cited reasons of "executive privilege," "secrecy in the interests of National Security," and "special wartime powers," none of which are apparently subject to any domestic or international laws or codes of justice, ethics, honor or even tradition... and ---

1. The fall of many big-name investment banking firms and commercial banks due to their overextension of readily-available credit, their propensity to gamble for short-term gain, a lack of impartial oversight and accountability, and an incredible failure to prudently diversify investments and avoid large concentrations in any one customer or investment product -- this is Finance 101...Mr. Lehmann is crying out from the grave. As for Keynes, he stopped talking long ago (as some dead people tend to do);


2. Growing concerns about climatic change (whether real or imagined), and its ramifications;


3. Shocking declines in the quality of life, availability of affordable healthcare (and medical insurance), and fitness of the population (I could point to the obesity statistics);


4. Radically changing demographics, and the non-integration and assimilation of most newer immigrants into what used to be "mainsteam American culture." There is an increase in the Tower Of Babel Effect -- the formation of cultural enclaves, barrios, ghettos and other inwardly-oriented protective cultural preservation configurations. We are not a melting pot...we are a camprground for disparate groups who are more co-inhabitants than neighbors. While this effect seems most pronounced in the United States, it is proliferating throughout Europe, as well.

There is a great deal of apocalyptic writing, speaking and thinking. Read the most recent novels by Stephen King, Dean Koontz and others. The motion picture industry is turning out more films about the end of the world than ever before. It is a popular theme, but the crowds do not leave the theatres smiling. The population is squaring off, albeit meekly and slowly, against the government and large institutions. "Big government" and "big business" are being demonized.

During these next five years, watch for the following trends and tendencies, bearing in mind that preparation can be the difference between being hit by a car or getting a lift in one:

1. Acceleration in the proliferation of ecommerce, and a reduction in the prevalence of paper media. As security measures improve on e-commerce websites, and as transportation becomes increasingly expensive, a greater percentage of the world's population will conduct a greater percentage of their purchases online;
2. Personal service, and even telephonic helpdesk services will become increasingly scarce, minimizing the interpersonal contact between consumers and service providers. The availability and quality of all services will continue to decline. Those exceptional sellers and providers of services to the wealthiest minority of consumers will provide interpersonal service, but only at a tremendous price premium;
3. Wires will rapidly begin to disappear as all communications equipment becomes wireless. Newer homes will be built with fewer electric outlets;
4. In several of the G-8 Nations (including the United States), paper currency and coin will vanish, as all payment and transfers will be done by institutional wire or by credit or debit card. Taxes will be estimated and extracted directly by governments from bank accounts, and the burden will be entirely on the individual to contest and disprove the government's "tax estimates" -- this process will be as discouraging as it is difficult;
5. Most of the United States' wealthiest and brightest individuals will live abroad as expatriates, or will apply for alternative citizenship;
6. Fossil fuels will give way to nuclear energy, most likely provided by thorium-based reactors, the first of which will be built in the G-8 nations within the next three years;
7. Executives will opt for private jet charter or lease services as commercial airlines in the G-8 nations continue to decline in their ability to service demand;
8. In the United States, immigrants (both legal and illegal) who are not fluent in English will outnumber English-speaking residents and citizens;
9. Communication media will be more efficient than ever before, but the willingness to take maximum advantage by speaking the same language will continue to steeply decline;
10. There will be a virtual elimination of the middle class throughout virtually every industrialized nation. The bluebloods will continue onward in indifference, some entrepreneurs and professionals will remain at the lower strata of the wealthy class, but the balance of the populace (probably more than 75% by census) will be desperately struggling to survive.

Students of history, as well as some uniquely visionary thinkers will see that we are approaching the end of an era. This invariably means confusion, violence, rampant distrust, re-grouping (as in medieval fiefdoms), and survival of only the extremely wealthy or the very, very enterprising.

If you are reading this (which you are), devise your plans based upon the assumption that you have between three to five years at maximum to become very rich or very clever. I would recommend both. And while you are in the process of building these fiscal and intellectual munitions, try to maintain a low profile so you don't get sidetracked by government investigations or an indeterminate prison sentence. Any actions taken in disagreement with the persons in power are not protected by either civil rights, constitutionally protected rights, or human rights.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

PLEASE, SIR.....I'D LIKE ANOTHER.

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .

---

Dear Friends:

"These are very dangerous times."

How many bleary-eyed street-corner philosophers have you heard making this profound observation regarding the Human Condition ? (which, incidentally, sounds like an incurable disease -- picture it, if only for a moment: the court systems of our increasingly litigious world, as clogged as a long-haul trucker's arteries, with class-action lawsuits against an endless roster of plaintiffs liable for their failure to change Human Nature -- makes you grin, doesn't it?).



The Human Condition remains unchanged, principally due to the persistence of Human Nature, which not only resists change, but has a propensity to avoid it at all possible costs. We generally are happier to dance with "the devil we know" than to go out on a blind date with the unfamiliar. In the paradox of our species, we all seem to understand that all potential gains involve the taking of risks, yet we are generally content to let others take those risks while we hide in our caves and await word of the outcome through the all-pervasive and sensationalistic media.



This risk-aversion is generally a protective instinct, but it becomes an impediment to survival when the circumstances about us change, and new behaviors are called for, while the older, instinctually-entrenched ones become nothing more than enslaving inertia. We stand in utter disbelief, and complain bitterly about situations, and yet we do nothing to change them...that is unless:



1. We are actually starving, homeless, or threatened with danger that is perceived as imminent (i.e., a mean-looking fellow with an unfashionable stocking cap and a sawed-off shotgun tells us that if we do not open the store safe, he will kill our children while we are forced to watch);



2. We can take some action without being identified with its outcome, thereby avoiding persecution, prosecution and other -ution suffixed words relating to "consequences". ***I have avoided mentioning Elliot Spitzer's name here, as that would be bad form and perceived by many of my colleagues as a "cheap shot."



3. We perceive that we have nothing to lose, so we just gamble. Gambling is the contrarian component which is hard-wired into the otherwise conservative and hyper-protective mechanics of Human behavior. If I have $10 left in my bank account, it is worth so little that I would rather buy a lottery ticket or make a sports bet than save it and enjoy the exponential growth effect of compound interest (albeit posthumously).



BUT I HAVE DIGRESSED....



Speaking Globally, watch for the following trends and tendencies in the near-term (1 to 3 years):

A NEW FORM OF LIQUIDITY CRISIS

There will be four major "liquidity" crises, each one brought about by a different type of causal agent.

The U.S. Dollar will plummet against other currencies due to a combination of 1) weakness against the Euro and other world currencies; 2) a rejection of the U.S. Dollar by certain industries as a standard means of acceptable payment; 3) the international credit standing of a United States which is ensnared in accumulating debt -- debt which can only be paid by the printing of reams of scrip (e.g. unsupported paper or electronic currency), or through untenable tarrifs and taxation -- and cannot possibly generate the income or other value to cover debt service payment, let alone actual debt retirement.

There will be an increasing shortage (due to a combination of Global Warming, pollution and inadequate or expensive purification technologies) of safe, pure drinking water worldwide.

There will be an increasing shortage of oil throughout the non oil-producing nations brought about through production decreases by OPEC and Company (to support inflated prices), hoarding of emergency reserves, and an tentative, though appreciably increased, utilization of hybrid and non-fossil fuel-powered vehicles, equipment, and the like.

There will be a worldwide decrease in available liquidity in "meaningful and credible" currencies as a flight to commodities increases and acquires momentum. Simply put, picture masses of concerned persons trading away their paper currencies and financial instruments for tangible commodities, such as precious metals and a host of medieval favorities, plus some newer ones like thorium and the Rare Earth Elements, which have unclear "intrinsic" value at the moment, but have unmistakable practical value as important depletable resources necessary to atomic energy production and many technologies.



TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

By "technological convergence" I mean that different types of communications devices will soon be technologically sophisticated enough that each type can send and receive messages and media from eachother. Simplistically, picture: your daughter's iPod talking your son's Blackberry; watching movies on your Treo or PDA; and. recording news programs (and "Friends" reruns) on your cellphone. All of these devices will become interconvertible -- a great boon to communications, coupled with a great dependency and vulnerabily. Science teaches us (if we bother to go to school that day) that more complex systems are most easily upset by ambitious viruses. Don't say that I didn't warn you. Somes themes for the next presidential administration to ponder:

ALTERNATIVES FOR EVERYTHING

HEALTH CRISES

LEADERSHIP CRISES

ILLITERACY ON THE RISE

COMMODITIES OVER PAPER

THE MIDDLE CLASS FALLS OUT

WE SIGNED WHAT TREATY? WHO AUTHORIZED THIS?

These will be very challenging times for traditionalists and the blindly faithful. They will be superb times for 1) activism; 2) neo-fuedalism: and 3) entrepreneurial individuals who are communications-savvy.

I can hardly wait. As for those of you who are not reading this article (it's always funny to address the audience that isn't there...it's a curious paradox, but very politically expedient)...Bend Over.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

For THE GLOBAL FUTURIST

A RADICAL SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL BALANCE

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .

---

Dear Friends:

History, like a poorly-prepared meal, tends to repeat itself. The only non-technological factors within the context of history that change are 1) the length of the socioeconomic cycle, and 2) the amplitude (e.g., the magnitude) of the highs and the lows. I have heard no end of metaphors for history... a sine wave; a pendulum; a coiled spring... just to name several.

This systematic repetition will likely be the case until such time as the deeply ingrained nature of the Human psyche actually evolves.

We tend, as a group, to have a short span of memory, a limited temporal focus, and an "all or nothing" response pattern to things happening around us. We have lived through numerous holocausts, bouts of xenophobia, periods of induced paranoia, civil wars that turn into protracted zero-sum games, lies (and careers) that have come unravelled, and economic depressions. We have a foolish proclivity to think that whatever social or economic circumstances we find ourselves in have never occurred before.

Our persistent failure to analogize (have I invented a word?) keeps us running into to same tree, over and over again. Nobody ever moves the tree -- we just keep forgetting that it's there.

Before I continue this post, I bring you a timely advertisement from Ex-Im Bank regarding an upcoming International Trade Conference in California. After this brief commercial, we can discuss the Future.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


"This conference will bring together small to mid-sized enterprises and trade promotion service organizations in both the public and private sectors with experts from across the state to dialog on the current issues, challenges and opportunities facing California's global trade and investment community. This year's conference will feature panels and presentations on using web based solutions for qualified information, marketing, trade finance, interpretation/translation, collaboration and security.
AgendaOnline RegistrationMail-in RegistrationSponsors-ExhibitorsConference History
Event Info
April 25, 20088:00a.m.-4:00 p.m.California Chamber of Commerce1215 K STREET, 14TH FLOOR (At the corner of 13th and K Street ESQUIRE BUILDING)SACRAMENTO, CA 95814

More Info
Monterey Bay International Trade Association (MBITA)P.O. Box 523Santa Cruz, CA 95061 Tel. 831-335-4780Fax 831-335-4822http://www.mbita.org/ http://us.f559.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=tlivoti@mbita.org
SUPPORTING ORGANIZATIONS...."


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

It is a comfort to know that Ex-Im is still in the business of fostering and assisting in solidifying trade opportunities for the benefit of U.S. exporters, for the Balance Of Payments, for the Balance Of Trade and for other things patriotic and fiscally salubrious.

The sad irony is that the U.S. does not have many things that it can export. Most every manufactured item is outsourced to enterprises in foreign nations. Most U.S. consumers purchase durable goods that were either imported, produced by multinationals, or which are merely packaged in the United States, but with the bulk of the value being added overseas.

The U.S. has several things that it can and does export:

• Jobs and employment opportunities;
• Dollars (in the purchase of goods and services provided by other countries);
• Agricultural commodities;
• Weaponry;
• Natural resources (metals, minerals, and mined commodities).

Let's take a quick look at each of these, and the associated benefits and costs:

JOBS AND EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Domestic companies can increase their profit margins in the shorter-term by outsourcing and offshoring. But the aggregate costs include rising permanent unemployment; loss of the value-added components of profits, and increased dependence upon foreign labor. The longer-run costs include the loss of management skills and the exodus or loss of technical talent; the loss of entire businesses and industries; the loss of income and wealth to the extent that we become weaker consumers, as well as weakened producers...

DOLLARS

The U.S. spends dollars on foreign goods and labor...they seem less expensive. But in the longer-run, this causes a devaluation of the dollar, and an exodus of dollar-denominated wealth from the United States. In addition, a great deal of the instruments representing the National Debt are in the hands of non-U.S. holders. As the U.S. borrows increasing sums from outside of its own citizenry and domestic institutions, the U.S. becomes enslaved by its indebtedness owed to parties offshore, and becomes perceived as a poorer international credit risk; this further devalues the U.S. dollar, and all instruments denominated in U.S. dollars. This effect is rapidly being heightened by the rise in the value of the Euro versus the U.S. dollar. The U.S.' most fundamental weakness -- we are utterly dependent on OPEC nations to give us the bulk of our fuel. As oil prices rise (as of the day of this writing oil was selling at an average of $105.32 per barrel!), the U.S. dollar declines, as well as virtually all of the other indices of prosperity.

Nightmare: The OPEC nations (and other nations in the course of ordinary commerce) insist on payment in Euros instead of U.S. dollars for virtually everything that they supply. Dollars become useless scrip. The wealth of a nation is wiped out immediately. The U.S. is vulnerable, and doesn't hold much leverage (as a non-supplier of too many things made and obtainable elsewhere) except in terms of its formidable military. But a military needs funds to pay for manpower and materiel. A trained mercenary goes to the highest bidder. What's a soldier to do when patriotism does not pay his/her family's living expenses?

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

The U.S. is blessed with fertile soil and sophisticated agricultural technologies. It is one of the few arrows left in the national quiver. The U.S. has the capacity to feed many of the world's hungry. It is also unlikely that we'll experience any serious blowback from this: if I were a betting type of fellow, I would bet that there are very few emerging nations who are turning our carrots into dangerous projectiles, or weaponizing wheat for the launch of a stealthy moonlight Triscuit attack on the United States, its territories or possessions. I am only slightly concerned about brussells sprouts being used as warheads aimed toward key cities and national monuments.

WEAPONRY

Someone famous once said "If you give a person power, he will be compelled to use it." I tend to agree. The reality of U.S. troops being killed by U.S.-made weapons has already arrived. This blowback continues, and dates back to the arming, by the United States, of Afghanistan in the latter's conflict with the former Soviet Union. Combine this with the problem that much U.S. weapons production and actual soldiering has been, well, outsourced. Hmmm. Human nature, as evidenced by history, would indicate that weapons will invariably be turned on the seller. This is only a matter of who, when and to what extent.

There is also that quirky aspect of Humanity that somehow compels friends of convenience (individuals, as well as nations) to become enemies.

NATURAL RESOURCES

The United States is rich in metals and minerals. These metals and minerals, mostly considered industrial or "non-precious" are becoming increasingly important. Thorium will likely come into common use as a fuel for atomic reactors as many non oil-producing nations accept a safer variation on atomic power theme. And the United States has quite a bit of thorium, as well as Rare Earth Elements (reference, THORIUM ENERGY, INC., which can be located at: http://thoriumenergyinc.blogspot.com ), which are absolutely essential to virtually all modern technology, and which are continually finding increased applicability. Thinking about it, having valuable natural resources and reserves in the U.S., coupled with a steadily-increasing demand for the these materials in all of the technology-producing nations should give the U.S. a big stick with which to negotiate. Right? Maybe not.

With a declining dollar and little else to sell to other nations, the United States' exporting of these increasing precious non-precious resources and reserves is similar to tearing down the walls of your home and throwing them into the fireplace to heat the living room. This is the economic version of a Black Hole.

Yes, there will be a radical shift in the world's balance of power, and it has already begun, with momentum increasing daily. But the media and other forces within the United States are trying to defer admitting the inevitable.

The United States should be careful that it doesn't sell itself completely into slavery.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle