Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Merger, Acquisition And Joint Venture Activity For the Next 5 - 10 Years

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For those of you who either enjoy a mystery or an opportunity to laugh at the expense of others, look closely at the spelling of the words on the embedded image which follows underneath. Braintenance button was switched off. Obviously. -DC

During the next 5 to 10 years, merger, acquisition and co-venture activity is going to be fascinating to watch, and an interesting field for gamblers to play in. To gain some insight into the effects of some of these potential multinational mega-mergers, you might wish to briefly review the following post from the Internationalist Page Blog, and then hit your browser's "BACK" button to return here:

http://theinternationalistpage.blogspot.com/2012/02/international-exchanges-mergers-and.html.

Here's what I am expecting:

1) Large amount of domestic and multinational mergers and joint ventures between small to medium-sized businesses in developing technologies, emerging consumer goods manufacturing and distribution, and others, founded upon synergistic vertical or horizontal integration and obvious synergy.

2) Joint ventures (non-mergers) between companies internationally which run along the lines of outsourcing, distribution and an evolving form of tariff-reducing "triangular trade:"

3) Acquisitions by publicly-traded companies in mature and non-tech or middle tech industries of smaller, emerging enterprises to create better utilization of resources and higher stock prices based upon social media buzz;

4) Mergers of publicly-traded companies which are currently multinational or international with others of the same status, but fewer mergers of publicly traded companies across sovereign boundaries;

5) Acquisitions of strategic and controlling blocks of shares of public companies in the United States and the EU by substantial and cash-rich Asian Investors;

6) Very few mergers of governmental, governmentally-controlled or quasi-governmental entities across national borders;

7) Mergers of mature companies whose technologies or captive consumer bases are perceived as possibly being in jeopardy -- expect some oil and gas company mergers, both domestically and internationally.

Please do stay tuned -- they'll be much more in the way of specific industry-focused predictions to come soon. Thank you for visiting with THE GLOBAL FUTURIST.

Douglas E. Castle [http://www.LinkedIn.com/in/DouglasCastle]

p.s. Please begin to follow The Internationalist Page at http://TheInternationalistPage.blogspot.com. No Futurist can limit his or her vision to any single domestic economy or society any more.

p.p.s. You might find one or more of our many Twitter streams to be of great interest. For a comprehensive list of Twitter Feeds worth following, you are cordially invited to visit the newly-modernized TwitterLinks Hubspot Blog.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Regrowth And Regeneration Of Limbs - New Frontiers

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It is a tragedy when an individual loses a limb. Medical research has focused on the areas of robotics, prosthetics, rehabilitation and compensating devices to provide, in some fashion for these losses. We've all heard tragic stories of "phantom limb pain," months and years of therapy and destruction of lives, careers and relationships because of these losses, whether due to amputation (in the case of diabetes for example), war injuries, atrophy (muscular and neurological) and congenital deformities.

The ideal solution, of course, is to be made physically and functionally whole again. This would not be an ungainly workaround -- it would be a direct solution.
Please read the article which follows (from several weeks ago, but still desperately relevant) and continue to read my commentary for THE GLOBAL FUTURIST, which appears afterwards. An amazing future may be possible, and we should look at its possibilities and opportunities now.

####
BigThink Weekly Newsletter:

How to Regrow a Limb

Megan Erickson on January 4, 2012, 12:00 AM

What's the Big Idea?

The loss of a human limb is a tragedy. We know that once they’re gone, mammalian arms and legs can't ever be restored. But if you cut off a salamander's leg - or tail - it will reappear in just a few weeks. The enigma of amphibian organ regeneration has puzzled scientists since it was first recorded by Aristotle, reaching its strangest and most scientifically-accepted heights in the 1700’s, when Voltaire decapitated a snail just to see if the head would grow back. (It did.)

Now, a new generation of longevity-seekers hopes to apply the power of amphibians like the salamander, the axlotl, and the worm to human medicine. Sonia Arrison, policy analyst and author of 100 Plus, believes that tissue engineering will revolutionize the treatment of chronic illnesses: “In the future, if we had the ability to grow a brand new heart or parts of hearts with that person’s very own adult stem cells, then when we know that they have heart disease, we could just replace the heart. All of those [costly] visits to the hospital, all of the drugs, won’t be required.” Better tools will enable us to repair people rather than just sort of patching them up for a little while until they get sicker and sicker, she says.

What's the Significance?

This idea is more practical than it sounds. Over the past few decades, scientists have begun to understand exactly how the regeneration process works in nature. When a salamander is injured, a clump of cells called a blastomea forms at the site of the wound. Like embryonic stem cells, the blastomea are especially plastic. These cells are then triggered to de-differentiate and re-initiate growth. (Debate remains over whether they're fully pluripotent, meaning that they have the ability to form any type of tissue, or whether the cellular dynamics merely have to be reprogrammed, as in recent studies by Doug Melton of the Harvard Stem Cell Institute.)

The trick, of course, is applying this knowledge to human anatomy. Arrison explains, "Since we all evolve from the same place, humans must have a set of genes that can allow for growing back new limbs - it’s just that they’re 'turned off' right now ." If we could figure out how to turn them back on, or to add new genes based on the salamander model, then it could be possible to create new organs from scratch. In fact, one of the biggest spenders in this story is the Pentagon, which has put at least $250 million in to the search to find a way to create new human organs in the lab.

“They’re funding work in terms of growing all sort of organs - bladders and windpipes and hearts and lungs, livers," says Arrison, "but also in hopes of figuring out how to regrow arms and legs" for soldiers wounded in combat. Thanks to this influx of public money, the field has moved forward much quicker than it would have otherwise. So far, researchers have succeeded growing hearts, livers, breast tissue, and bone in the lab. The brain remains elusive - but Arrison is optimistic: "The brain is much tougher than other organs in the human body, but work is moving along."

There are, however, two things that she's worried about. The first is that technology won’t move quick enough for those alive today. "We’ve made a lot of progress in terms of reverse engineering the human code, we’ve made a lot of progress in tissue engineering and gene therapy, but it’s that we still have a ways to go." she says. The second is that, if we do see organ regeneration applied to medicine, the distribution of benefits like faster healing and increased longevity will be inequitable:

How long will the gap be between the wealthy getting it and the poor getting it? Because we’re already starting from a point of inequality. If you look around the world, life expectancy in Monaco in the South of France is around 90 years. Life expectancy in Angola is around 38 years. That’s like a 50-plus gap of an entire lifetime, really. And then within the United States, there’s a pretty decent gap as well. An Asian-American woman living in New Jersey has a life expectancy of around 91 years. A Native-American man living in South Dakota has a life expectancy of about 58 years.

There's already a fifty year difference in what it's like to be rich and poor in the world, which may or may not be alleviated by technology, she says, depending on how we choose to use it.

####

Observation, Conjecture And Commentary:

Putting aside, for a moment, the issues of longevity and its correlation to wealth and exogenous environmental or situational variables, let's look at where we might start to be looking (and investing resources):

1) Studying and developing cellular plasticity - observing how certain cells, each equipped with a full complement of the organism's DNA, can assume different functions to compensate for the loss of other cellular functions;

2) Studying and developing stem cell research - where "basic cells" can be "influenced" or "instructed" to become specialized in certain ways. Either outside of the body, or appended to the body, these initially amorphous cells can "learn" to become the necessary parts or assume the needed functions;

3) Studying electromagnetic and electrochemical forces which can cause regeneration based upon (these are highly theoretical reasons) an activation of new growth from the "root" or "remnant" of an old limb, or through a stimulation of the electronic "framework" of the body as it would be if whole to create new growth through completion of the blueprint. I personally believe that the greatest possibilities lie in the notion of regeneration chambers or similar devices -- the mystery is precisely what force stimulates completion/construction of the body to duplicate its complete blueprint.

Douglas E Castle for THE GLOBAL FUTURIST

Thursday, January 5, 2012

The Ever-Widening Wealth Gap

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"If the peasants are crying because they haven't any bread, then let them eat cake." This is a loosely translated quotation from some plutocratic, indifferent, callous, out-of-touch-with-the-common-serf, and likely French woman of great stature who should have shut up before she ultimately lost her head. Statements like the previous are almost as offensive as Leona Helmsley's infamous "Taxes are for the little people."

The perception of the pampered, rich and powerful (can't you feel my envy?), who live in a certain isolation from the trials and tribulations of the wage-earning or unemployed crowd (the masses), is quite different than that of their poorer counterparts and, in the case of politics, constituents. There are very few truly wealthy people in the world, and they are vastly outnumbered by the struggling peasants who aspire to what amounts to at least a reasonable standard of living.

The disparity in wealth and income which separates these two groups is increasing rapidly, and dramatically. The social configuration is inefficient in terms of "government by the consent of the governed," or "government representing the interests of citizenry." This is because those who attain high political office and become part of the ruling class are so much wealthier than those who elect them that they cannot possibly empathize with the issues of the voters...the unrepresented majority.

This is happening all over the world. The United States is only one example.

To bring this difference in perception into clearer focus, when a Fortune 100 Director says he's struggling to get by, he might be saying it in a fine restaurant over cocktails while his chauffeur awaits, patiently parked at the curb. Or he might complain about it at the country club or at an executive retreat. When a commoner (as I am) says I am broke, he literally is on the verge of having his home foreclosed, clunky car repossessed, and has less than $4.75 in his jeans pocket. He is truly immobilized and worried to an extent which those elected officials, sheltered as they are on Mount Olympus, cannot remotely understand or relate to.

This makes for government of the increasingly growing population of poor folks by bodies comprised of wealthy, ideologically removed, wealthy folks. They cannot represent the interests of people to whom they cannot hope to relate!

An interesting article extract follows for your review. After you've taken a good read through it, take a look at my conclusions for THE GLOBAL FUTURIST.
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The Wealth Gap Between Congress and Voters Is Growing

By Dashiell Bennett | The Atlantic Wire – Tue, Dec 27, 2011

Both The New York Times and The Washington Post have separate reports today about the widening wealth gap between members of Congress and the people they represent. Almost half of all Congresspeople are millionaires and their median net worth has climbed to $913,000, compared to $100,000 for the rest of America households.

According to the Post, that number drops to $725,000 when excluding home equity (and adjusting for inflation), but the same median figure for American families is just $20,500. And that gap has only grown wider in recent years.

The biggest reason for the disparity is the sheer cost of running for office, which is both a full-time job and an expensive undertaking. The average successful House race costs $1.4 million to stage (the average Senate campaign is almost $10 million), and candidates are allowed — and often need — to donate as much as they want to their own effort.

The costs of advertising and travel make it increasingly difficult for anyone who doesn't already have money to get their name out there. There have also been concerns raised recently about the ability of politicians to profit from their position, both through contacts made and the ability to trade stock based on privileged information.

Even putting aside the questions of influence and corruption, the biggest concern is that those who elected to Congress are more out of touch with the world of their constituents than ever before. How can they be expected to look out for the interest of citizens when the biggest issues facing them — unemployment, health care, wages — are unknown to most of those who are supposed to be looking out for them? Or worse when addressing those issues directly contradicts their own interest, as when millionaires are asked to vote on a "millionaire's tax"? The biggest political movement of the last year, Occupy Wall Street, has been devoted almost exclusively to addressing the gap between rich and poor, but it's hard to see how any change becomes possible when that gap is greatest among those in a position to do something about it.

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I am predicting:

1) An increasing number of one-term politicians, and increasing legislative turnover;

2) Increasing protests and acts of rebellion (i.e., "Occupy Wall Street") on the part of the citizenry against any person or institution which represents wealth and power;

3) Increasing pressure on investigative journalists prosecutors and judges worldwide to bring investigate, isolate and punish (i.e., make examples of) many of the world's rich and powerful, rendering this latter group somewhat paranoic for the first time since the Middle Ages;

4) An exodus of the powerful from public life to private puppeteering and market manipulation;

5) Ordinary envy turning to heightened animosity, acts of rebellion, and citizen activism.

I foresee dramatic upheaval in the composition and privileges of elected officials and government in general during these next five years. In defense, I would also expect to see many politicos finding new nesting places in the military-industrial complex, where they will continue to rule, but with a great deal less transparency, and with increased power.

While the rich will always win, I envision wild, extremist political battles, and the shift into the private sector of those who are old hands at being part of the governmental elite. This could portend a new brand of medieval feudalism surfacing as the new form of government.

"Let them eat cake?" Not one of the answer choices.

Douglas E. Castle

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

5 Giant Industry And Techno-Trends: The Global Futurist

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Drawing from a variety of sources during the course of these past four weeks, I've distilled the information I've gathered regarding major trends (industries and technologies) down to my favorite five, each of which which I believe is going to be booming during the next five years, and each of which warrants careful observation, as well as some business and investment planning. But, of course, I do not offer any investment, financial, legal, health or tax advice.

One thing that all of these giant industry and technological trends have in common is that they are each already significantly underway. They are all gaining momentum. Quickly.
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1. Nanotechnology, Nanotubes And Cardiovascular Pipecleaning.

Big Think Daily Ideafeed 15 October 2011

BIOTECH REVOLUTION
Microscopic Robots in Your Bloodstream

Engineers have used carbon nanotubes to create artificial muscle that moves like an elephant's trunk, which could be used to propel microscopic nanobots through the bloodstream.

2. Stem Cells, Computers and LIFE.

Researchers grow partial pituitary gland using stem cells

Japanese researchers used embryonic stem cells to grow partial pituitary glands, then transplanted the tissue in the kidneys of mice without pituitary glands. The transplanted tissue returned hormone levels to normal, according to the study published in Nature. The initiative is part of a worldwide effort to grow complete organs in a lab setting using stem cells. The Guardian (London) (12/4)...

And there's much more:

What's the Latest Development? [From BigThink's Idea Newsletter] - Computer Printer-Assisted Bone Regrowth.

3D printers have been used to create bone-like material which researchers say could aid in repairing injuries. The new material would act like scaffolding, promoting the growth of new cells and then dissolve away with no ill-effects. Professor Susmita Bose, who helped carry out the work at Washington State University, has been at work on the material for four years. A breakthrough came recently when she found a way to double the strength of the main ceramic powder—calcium phosphate—by adding silica and zinc oxide.

What's the Big Idea?

Within just a few years, doctors could use the printing technique to custom-order replacement of bone tissue. "Tests carried on immature foetal bone cells in the laboratory found that new bone cells started growing over the scaffold within the first week of it being attached." Dr. Bose predicts that within a decade or two, doctors will be able use artificial bone from 3D printers as scaffolds, along with bone growth factors, to repair anything from a broken jaw to a broken spine.

Photo credit: shutterstock.com

3. Video Surveillance, Mobile Tracking and RFID

Retailers use RFID, security cameras to track buying habits
Retailers are using in-store video cameras and RFID tags to track buying habits of their customers. The data are used to improve inventory and display positions to prompt customers to buy more. "Before we were just working based on certain know-how and intuition. This is designing a retail business based on real statistics," said Montblanc brand manager Rodrigo Fajardo. Bloomberg Businessweek (12/15)

Malls use cellphone location data to track shoppers
Malls in California and Virginia have begun using cellphone signals to track the locations of shoppers. The malls use the tools to triangulate shoppers' locations based on their cellphone signals as part of a trial that runs through the end of the year. Forest City, which owns the malls, says it is not collecting any data that could identify a shopper, though experts say the data could be paired with other sources of information to target offers. Some experts, however, have raised questions about the legality of such tracking. Ars Technica (11/26)

4. An Increase In The Number Of Prisons, Prisoners, Privatization Of Facilities, And Incarceration-Related Employment - Prisons Are One Of The Largest Domestic Growth Industries In The USA.

Prison Nation

December 21, 2011 by Bob Livingston

PHOTOS.COM

There are more than 2.3 million people in American prisons.

America has come to be more like North Korea than the America our fathers grew up in. The United States is not a country descending into totalitarianism. Totalitarianism, the police state, is here.

According to a recent study in the journal Pediatrics and reported in USAToday, one in three Americans will be arrested by the time they are 23. That’s up from 22 percent of youths that age 44 years ago.

Crimes leading to arrest in this age group range from truancy and vandalism to shoplifting and underage drinking to assault and murder. Criminologist Megan Kurlychek told the newspaper that localities handled many minor offenses more informally 40 years ago than they do now.

“Society is a lot less tolerant of these teenage behaviors,” she said.

In fact, it’s not just teenage behaviors society is not tolerating. Now elementary school children are charged with sexual assault over innocent hugs and kisses and assault when they get into fights on school grounds.

And with drug laws criminalizing possession of as little marijuana as a seed or stem, it’s easy to understand why there are more than 2.3 million people in American prisons.

According to a 2008 study by the Pew Center on the States, one in 100 Americans is behind bars. For blacks, the statistics are staggering. One in 15 black men aged 18 or older is behind bars. For blacks ages 20 to 34, the number is one in nine. Black women are three times more likely to be incarcerated than white women.

America’s rate of incarceration far outpaces countries like South Africa and Iran. For every 100,000 Americans, 750 are in jail. In Germany the rate is only 93 per 100,000.

In America, people can be fined and/or imprisoned for simply taking raw milk across State lines, selling “unapproved” rabbits, or uprooting a plant or draining a pond on their own property.

Now, Congress has passed and the President has signed legislation that designates America a battlefield in the War on Terror and subjects Americans to indefinite incarceration without a hearing.

Face it: America is now a prison Nation. And with America’s penchant for militarism and her people’s fondness of orators, Herr Hitler would feel right at home. ####
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The profits and possibilities for companies in the building and management of prisons are promising. They'll be job opportunities for returning soldiers, retired law enforcement, and some local, but otherwise unskilled labor. And demand will continue to expand as the "Nation Of Regulation, Litigation And Incarceration" -- that's the United States...Land of the free/ Home of the brave -- continues to try to fuel a failing economy and an ever-increasing draconian system of punishment by A) locking up non-violent offenders and destroying families [leading to more crime] and B) giving non-productive jail-based jobs to anybody who is still outside of the prison (and is not an escapee) after the evening's lockdown.

5. Electroshock, Direct Computer-Brain Interaction And Virtual Reality To Enhance Learning Ability, Accompanied By A Renewed Interest In Subliminal Entrainment.

The following article excerpt appears courtesy of a slightly-dated but highly-relevant edition of BigThinks's Daily IdeaFeed. The article was every bit as stimulating (pun intended) as the slightly-Frakensteinian notion of using a highly-refined variant of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT), a controversial treatment for schizophrenia, catatonia, and some forms of severe clinical depression in order to stimulate and accelerate learning (the assimilation of knowledge) as well as recall (the ability to rapidly access the assimilated knowledge), and intelligence (the ability to use assimilated knowledge to identify and solve problems -- putting it simply):

BIOTECH REVOLUTION
Mild Electric Shocks Speed Learning

Running a mild electric current through the brain improves learning speed, according to Air Force researchers. The technique was used to teach personnel how to identify drone targets.

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Don't throw away those binaural and subliminal CDs. Keep Your Headphones. Entrainment [the creation of thoughts and emotions by inducing brain wave patterns through external means] will indeed be making a comeback, with improved targeting and precise technology. It is interesting to note that the brain tends to "pick up the rhythm' to certain patterned beats and sounds through an amazing process of mimicry. Whether this is done with headphones or electrodes, the possibilities are exciting, if not just a bit frightening. The ultimate result would be similar to Neo's crash course in, and rapid mastery of various styles of martial arts by immersion in a computer-simulated and controlled environment. Virtual reality is going to be an increasing preoccupation. Whether for education or recreation, the temptation of alternative realms is far too exciting to stay put.

Douglas E. Castle for THE GLOBAL FUTURIST

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Bioenergetics - The Ultimate Power Source

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Living organisms consume food (as fuel) and carry on with the various tasks of living. Each living creature is a consumer and creator of bioenergy. Plant and animal bioenergetics is being looked at very seriously as a potentially limitless source of power for virtually every conceivable use. The difference between input (food) and output (work) is the magical key.

The issues surrounding its inevitable development and deployment include:

1) Obtaining it efficiently;

2) Transporting (or 'conducting') it efficiently;

3) Storing it for future use with a minimal loss or decay factor;

4) Converting it from one form to another as may be required in the circumstances;

5) Multiplying its efficiency in terms of input versus output, and perpetuating the production cycle.

Regarding this latter issue, picture the example of trying to get a hamster to cycle a wheel to the greatest number of revolutions per minute while feeding it the least expensive source of nutrition.

If you combine living creatures which are highly energetic little machines (such as microbes or even viruses) which consume waste products or pollutants for the purpose harnessing a source of energy, several perplexing problems facing us in the present and in the future could theoretically be solved (or at least mitigated) simultaneously.

The utopian picture of bioenergetics would be harnessing energetic output to produce electricity from a species of microbes which consumes oil spills and excretes (as a byproduct of the energy production process) harmless waste products that are readily biodegradable, or perhaps even useful.

I strongly believe that enterprises which invest in bioenergetics in any aspect will begin to make an appearance late in 2012 (principally as academically-sponsored start-ups and ventures), and will be very valuable in terms of profit potential and stock pricing potential by the third quarter of 2015.

The following article excerpt comes to us courtesy of SmartPlanet:

Using everyday microbes to power electrical devices

A grad student is improving technology that creates electrical fuel cells from everyday microbes like yeast. Read the full story

This field is fashionably green, ecologically unassailable, and addresses an almost unimaginably enormous demand while simultaneously solving some very serious problems. It has the ancillary sociological benefit of bringing together a merger of interests between naturalists and preservationists with the lust for innovation and profits of entrepreneurs and capital providers. Perhaps some venture capitalists, accredited angel investors and crowdfunding organizers are listening.

I would certainly hope so.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Trading Commercialization For Public Access: Crowdsourcing, Brainstorming, Collaboration

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Image via Wikipedia - Apps and Icons

Crowdsourcing, Brainstorming And Collaboration: everyone seems to see the benefits to the populace as a whole when 'free' computer and mobile apps, 'open source' programs and software products are made available to the eager, ever-hungry public. The group-centered creative process is indisputably powerful -- its magic formula... limitless access to limitless numbers of limitless minds. The distribution process is hyper-efficient: all of the co-creators and their social circles will use, review and promote what's produced. Ultimately, word and utilization travel virally.

The social media and communications platforms benefiting (i.e., improving or increasing their respective use of their platforms; platforms and communications media like Twitter, Facebook, iPad, Blogger, Wordpress and others) by this seemingly endless cloudburst of apps even help to encourage ["Developers? Work with our API to develop your ingenious new applications and integrated uses for our product! Work with our development team.), advertise and promote them.

Confession: The title of this article is slightly misleading. Apologies. My trend-watchers, predictors, market prognosticators and sophisticated business audience already know that the notion of "trading" commercialization for public access is actually ephemeral. Sooner or later, the endgame is invariable the harnessing of every application, innovation and invention for a profit. It's just a matter of "How?" and "When?" And after these are answered, the question is "Who will gain and who will turn (the customerization process) from a free-user to a monthly payer or subscriber?"

Skeptics ask two questions: "Who makes a profit?" and "How do they make it?" Take a glance at the following article excerpt, which is over a month old but incredibly applicable, and then please hit the "BACK" button on the upper left-hand corner of your browser and return. We'll wait for you.

From the BigThink Daily IdeaFeed:

FREE DOWNLOAD:
Crowdsourced And Free Navigation Apps Taking Off
New, free navigation apps with an emphasis on social features and crowdsourced data are providing competition for premium providers such as TomTom, Garmin, CoPilot and Navigon.

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And now to the ever-irksome questions that are begging to be asked by business strategists, obsessive monetizers, dependent users and Global Futurists... and other persons who are considered by some to be skeptics and cynics, but whom I consider to be intelligent business pragmatists.

The process of monetization of these "open" and "free" source innovations is ongoing, but I believe that the timeframe from first release of new technology to monetization is going to be shrinking as a result of the weak global economy, the rise in the acceptability and utilization of cybercommerce, the increasing dependence on mobile devices for information and communication, and the growing population of people actively involved (either socially or commercially) in social media.

Ego gratification and the desire to share may initiate the creative processes, but real-world, real-time necessity accelerates the compulsion to convert from ego gratification and "psychic income" to creative conversion over to monetization.

WHO WILL PROFIT? AND HOW WILL THEY PROFIT?

1) Developers - Developers will be paid in the form of awards, contest prizes, promotion, and occasionally sales-based royalties from the benefitted platforms and media. If the developers have used open-sourcing, collaboration or crowd-sourcing they could, in theory pro-rate their benefits (both direct financial and endorsement-based) with their many collaborators as stakeholders. It is far more likely that the visionary organizers of these projects shall benefit directly and give 'thanks' to their contributors in the form of honorable mention. Exploiters often dominate and prevail. Others, less assertive merely settle for 'thanks,' laminated MVP certificates, bragging rights and other honorable discharges and trivial dismissal documents.

Some developers will be acquired, individually or corporately by the platform and media hosts in a "brain roundup" of talent and in marriages of political convenience -- i.e., to avoid IP legal battles and to avoid encouraging too much entrepreneurial independence. Picture a kinder, gentler Bill Gates, giving you a choice between a wonderful, glamorous career or an exsanguination.

Other developers will remain independent and continue to offer a free version of their innovations, but will begin developing and offer a "premium" or "professional" upgraded version of their products and services for a small recurring fee to the users. Picture charging a growing population of adherents a very small nuisance tax that is just too inexpensive to be objectionable. Heck, my subscription to Pingler only costs me $5.00 per month. I couldn't live without it. To get the Widgetbox "Pro" membership costs me, on average, $1.99 per month -- while I don't use it much, I just can't be bothered to cancel it.

2) The Platform Hosts And Media Providers - These companies will be benefitted by an increased flood of user volume to their respective platforms and media due to the convenience and an increased us of these applications, from Sudoku, to GPS restaurant locators, to mobile apps to access and support all of your social media and messaging activity. Firstly, their revenues will be increased from advertisers and commercial users due to their decreasing CPM and ever-increasing social and business audience and influence. Advertisers and promoters will be paying more to these old pros -- rates will rise.

After advertisers and commercial users are more fully trussed up and dependent, these larger hosts and providers will go after consumers (picture Bank Of America, Netflix and your beloved utilities providers raising prices to end-users directly, but with less fanfare, and engendering less hatred or mass exodus threats). Of course, once consumers begin to get used to the idea of paying a "trivial" fee for what used to be free services, those fees will never, ever be reduced --- I would predict a high likelihood that they will be increased on a regular basis thereafter.

3) Collaborators, As Teams And Individual Members - As the participants in these large, currently nameless, faceless crowds become more sophisticated with time, experience and watching the success of the early-exploiters (my projected horizon for this awakening is over the course of three years, starting toward the end of the first quarter of 2012, and slowing down toward the end of the time horizon due a flooding of the marketplace with app litter, increased competition amongst these collaborative developer teams, i.e., bidding the price of the services down in accordance with the basic Law Of Supply And Demand), and the increased acceptance of software as a service with the expansion of the Cloud.

Incidentally, "The Cloud" still scares me. This is not only in terms of the dependency on yet a new set of utilities-like companies, but also due to the increased vulnerability to data theft, and the cost of downtime and defaults, and a feeling of the backups and modifications and parallel systems which will have to be deployed by companies which wish to mitigate and contain the risks involved in this "one-size-fits-all" type of solution. Also, The Cloud sounds ominously like the title of a B-grade science fiction movie or of a lesser Stephen King short story.

Douglas E. Castle for The Global Futurist
*****

THE GLOBAL FUTURIST

Pages

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Merger, Acquisition And Joint Venture Activity For the Next 5 - 10 Years

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Regrowth And Regeneration Of Limbs - New Frontiers

How to Regrow a Limb

Thursday, January 5, 2012

The Ever-Widening Wealth Gap

The Wealth Gap Between Congress and Voters Is Growing

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

5 Giant Industry And Techno-Trends: The Global Futurist

Prison Nation

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Bioenergetics - The Ultimate Power Source

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Trading Commercialization For Public Access: Crowdsourcing, Brainstorming, Collaboration

Blog Archive

THE GLOBAL FUTURIST

Pages

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Merger, Acquisition And Joint Venture Activity For the Next 5 - 10 Years

Related articles

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Regrowth And Regeneration Of Limbs - New Frontiers

Related articles

Thursday, January 5, 2012

The Ever-Widening Wealth Gap

The Wealth Gap Between Congress and Voters Is Growing

Related articles

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

5 Giant Industry And Techno-Trends: The Global Futurist

Prison Nation

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Bioenergetics - The Ultimate Power Source

Related articles

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Trading Commercialization For Public Access: Crowdsourcing, Brainstorming, Collaboration

Some related (but dated) articles relating to the subject of this article follow. A number of them are still quite relevant, while others are now just reduced to historical records:

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