REALITY CHECK: Wading Through A "Propaganda Swamp" to get at the Truth.
This article was originally written by Douglas Castle for publication in THE GLOBAL FUTURIST (http://TheGlobalFuturist.blogspot.com), with all right reserved. This article may be reprinted or re-published provided that it is reproduced in whole, and that this portion regarding attribution is set forth immediately beneath the title heading.
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Dear Readers:
There is the truth (which is not relative -- it is actual and factual), and there is misinformation or misinterpretation, either of which lead us to mistaken beliefs and wrongful actions. Some of this un-truth springs from the instruments of the self-appointed guardians of the public safety (who will spread any story in order to avoid a panic); some of it through poor information-gathering and flawed analysis; and some of it through wishful thinking. In this last case (which is very Human and is typically well-intended) we subjectively engage in "whistling past the graveyard," or in "faking it until we've made it." There is a pact we make with ourselves about self-fulfilling prophesies and that is to avoid them if they are potentially negative and to believe them if they are possibly positive.
Some of it is a function of our inherent biases (things which we are either invested in or attached to), and some of it is fed to us by others who would like to impose their system of thinking upon us in order to get us to react in a certain way.
A classic example is in the case of some MENSA-mentat spin doctor saying "If we can get some top-ranked economists and public thought leaders to say that 'the recession is over,' people will go out and start buying things, and factories will start making things, and yada ad infinitum. This is not completely untrue, but there are some serious limiting factors:
- Rising Unemployment - As unemployment continues to rise (and the degree of joblessness is significantly underreported based upon the way in which governmental agencies gather these statistics), people have no money for discretionary consumption. If I have exactly three hundred dollars in my wallet (i.e., right after payday from my barnacle-scraping job), and I also have a letter from my employer (Bill) saying that I am to receive my last check next week, I cannot buy your $450,000.00 foreclosed home even if it is on sale at the bargain price of $45,000.00. A bargain price is irrelevant if you have no expendable income;
- Banks Are Not Lending - In the preceding example, had I been able to get the money for a mortgage to purchase the "bargain home," I might have done it, and just quickly resold the property for a fast gain. But most banks (especially in the U.S.) are not really lending, except to the federal government, with purchases of treasury instruments. Schucks...if the government 1) yelled at me for making bad loans and taking foolish risks, 2) bailed me out with freshly-printed money to ultimately be paid for by the taxpaying public, and 3) permitted me to purchase government bonds at a theoretically risk-free yield, I would 4) stop making credit decisions, stop making loans, reduce lines of credit, raise fees for every imaginable service and raise salaries for the cowboys (and cowgals!) in the C-Suite.
Finding the truth in any situation is not unlike panning for gold.
When the US media goes into a wild frenzy about how the Chinese are exporting all manner of dangerous, poisonous, potentially baby-killing consumer products, one has to wonder how much is factual, and how much is manipulative protectionism sponsored by an administration outmaneuvered by a political foe and commercial rival.
But enough about that...
Here are a few things to look at dduring the next three years:
1. The US will emerge from its recession slower than any other industrialized nation, with permanent losses. I believe that a genuine recovery will begin in 2012, and that the US will no longer be a world leader from the standpoint of productivity or popularity;
2. The best students and baby-boomer professionals in the United States will become expatriates, while the new inhabitants of the US will be less-educated, less-motivated and painfully reliant upon the government to attend to their needs;
3. China will become the most influential nation in the world, and will be buying many "bargains" from fallen giants;
4. Most employment opportunities will be in the Middle East and in Asia;
5. Commercial real estate worldwide will suffer devaluation as more and more business becomes cyberspace-based, and more consumers get into the habit of purchasing products and services online. Residential, industrial and resort real estate will stabilize and begin a slow trend toward appreciation.
6. The US and its allies will waffle and waver over Afghanistan, troops will continue to occupy the region, and the dealth tolls for all parties will mount.
7. The "Green Lobby" will continue to grow stronger and more politically significant in all quarters. Environmental protectionism, will become social mantra and corporate dogma. The one anomalous area within the "clean energy" sector that will gain surprising acceptance will be atomic reactors. Of course, there will still be hybrid cars, windmills and solar panels to reduce the worldwide dependence on fossil fuels -- but these will be dwarfed in visibility and significance by the re-emergence of nuclear power.
And now, a gift from the NEW YORK TIMES, Orient Express Edition*
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Faithfully, Douglas Castle | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
* C'mon...there's no such thing as The Orient Express Edition. It was just a play on words.
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