Dear Friends:A very intelligent and insightful individual recently responded to a brief article which I posted on THE NATIONAL NETWORKER - THE RELATIONSHIP CAPITAL TOOLKIT. I have reposted this comment here, with my response. David makes an excellent observation regarding Human behavior...particularly in Americans.
The global economy has been dependent upon the human nature of the American consumer. When the American consumer goes on a spending diet it not only impacts the Dow Jones, it sends the economies of Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Americas into cardiac arrest.If you understand dieting and human nature, you know that this spending fast will be broken. The pent up spending urge will break loose, especially as the credit markets are freed up. Look for a spending take-off in late 1Q or early 2Q 2009.You heard it here...David Burnett, CEcD
November 27, 2008 9:13 PM
David:
Thank you for your comment.
While I fully agree with your superb analogy, I disagree with the optimism of your timing.In certain cases, dieting is within the realm of the individual's control (endogenous and voluntary), and sometimes it is more harshly constrained by the tightened parameters of the individual's income (exogenous and involuntary).There is indeed a powerful element of pent-up and unfulfilled demand...but there are the harsh realities of 1) rising domestic unemployment and job losses; 2) the steepening increase during the last ten years in consumption of U.S. products (by percentage) by the foreign sector; 3) the reluctance of banks ("bailed out" or not) to extend the credit to consumers that has fueled domestic consumption more than earnings during the past six years, and 4) the inability of the investment banking firms to raise the sums necessary to infuse capital into businesses which create jobs, wages and consumption.
My compliments on your excellent analogy, and on your optimism, which I hope will become contagious.I am taking the liberty of reposting your comment on THE GLOBAL FUTURIST at http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/ - Douglas Castle
p.s. I hope that your predicted timing becomes reality. I am personally looking for a turnaround in the economy (domestically and internationally) in 2011-2012.
November 28, 2008 11:50 AM
November 28, 2008 11:50 AM
THE ORIGINAL POST to THE NATIONAL NETWORKER - THE RELATIONSHIP CAPITAL TOOLKIT [edited repost] :
Dear Readers:
The study and proper acknowledgement of Human Nature is an integral part of accomplishing anything in this world. All of what we perceive as reality, with the exception of certain natural phenomena, is borne of the Human mind and its imaginings. Take a few moments and examine the notion of the SELF-FULFILLING PROPHESY and what its implications are. You may find this very interesting. Better -- you might be able to put it to practical use in the process of conducting your social and business affairs in your path toward success. Please view THE GLOBAL FUTURIST to confirm and solidify your thoughts about something which you have probably always suspected.
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
http://aboutdouglascastle.blogspot.com/
KEYWORDS, TERMS AND ORGANIZATIONS:
globalism, CFR, NGO, UN, WTO, IMF, central bank, outsourcing, offshoring, capital markets, import, export, international trade, strategic alliances, e-commerce, entrepreneurship, social networking, banking, finance, trade, ventures, business, securities, stock exchanges, indexes, futurism, trends, citizen ambassadorship, enterprise, capitalism, international politics, commodities, prime rate, LIBOR, foreign currencies, foreign exchange, blogs, blogging, bloggers, aol, google, yahoo, msn, AP, news, media alerts, world government, world governments, international affairs, treaties, tariffs, trade restrictions, marketing, advertising, business development, arbitrage, obtaining capital, promotion, publicity, EU, NATO, military affairs, government regulation, trade restrictions, liquidity crisis, business opportunities, web-based businesses, communication, communications, technology, intelligence, embassies, consulates, business resources, Douglas Castle,The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, international politics, elections, time management, cyberspace, AI, energy, industry, productivity, Mixx, Digg, Technorati, Sphere, Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, LinkedIn, advertising, economics, strategy, management, cooperation, widgets, blidgets, links, incoterms, CCH, UCC, freight forwarding, custom house brokers, diversity, employment, culture, micro-loans, technological convergence, trends, financial planning, FOREX, futures, stock index, inflation, recession, sub-contracting, Department of Commerce, CIOF, the next generation, amnesty, humanitarianism, foreign aid, philanthropy, charity, LinkedIn, singularity, transportation, IT, intelligence, complexity theory, energy sources, shortages, climatic change, pop-culture, survivalism, mergers and acquisitions...
KEYWORDS, TERMS AND ORGANIZATIONS:
globalism, CFR, NGO, UN, WTO, IMF, central bank, outsourcing, offshoring, capital markets, import, export, international trade, strategic alliances, e-commerce, entrepreneurship, social networking, banking, finance, trade, ventures, business, securities, stock exchanges, indexes, futurism, trends, citizen ambassadorship, enterprise, capitalism, international politics, commodities, prime rate, LIBOR, foreign currencies, foreign exchange, blogs, blogging, bloggers, aol, google, yahoo, msn, AP, news, media alerts, world government, world governments, international affairs, treaties, tariffs, trade restrictions, marketing, advertising, business development, arbitrage, obtaining capital, promotion, publicity, EU, NATO, military affairs, government regulation, trade restrictions, liquidity crisis, business opportunities, web-based businesses, communication, communications, technology, intelligence, embassies, consulates, business resources, Douglas Castle,The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, international politics, elections, time management, cyberspace, AI, energy, industry, productivity, Mixx, Digg, Technorati, Sphere, Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, LinkedIn, advertising, economics, strategy, management, cooperation, widgets, blidgets, links, incoterms, CCH, UCC, freight forwarding, custom house brokers, diversity, employment, culture, micro-loans, technological convergence, trends, financial planning, FOREX, futures, stock index, inflation, recession, sub-contracting, Department of Commerce, CIOF, the next generation, amnesty, humanitarianism, foreign aid, philanthropy, charity, LinkedIn, singularity, transportation, IT, intelligence, complexity theory, energy sources, shortages, climatic change, pop-culture, survivalism, mergers and acquisitions...
No comments:
Post a Comment