Friday, November 28, 2008

AN EXCELLENT ANALOGY ABOUT THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

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Dear Friends:

A very intelligent and insightful individual recently responded to a brief article which I posted on THE NATIONAL NETWORKER - THE RELATIONSHIP CAPITAL TOOLKIT. I have reposted this comment here, with my response. David makes an excellent observation regarding Human behavior...particularly in Americans.



DTB said...


The global economy has been dependent upon the human nature of the American consumer. When the American consumer goes on a spending diet it not only impacts the Dow Jones, it sends the economies of Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Americas into cardiac arrest.If you understand dieting and human nature, you know that this spending fast will be broken. The pent up spending urge will break loose, especially as the credit markets are freed up. Look for a spending take-off in late 1Q or early 2Q 2009.You heard it here...David Burnett, CEcD
November 27, 2008 9:13 PM



David:


Thank you for your comment.


While I fully agree with your superb analogy, I disagree with the optimism of your timing.In certain cases, dieting is within the realm of the individual's control (endogenous and voluntary), and sometimes it is more harshly constrained by the tightened parameters of the individual's income (exogenous and involuntary).There is indeed a powerful element of pent-up and unfulfilled demand...but there are the harsh realities of 1) rising domestic unemployment and job losses; 2) the steepening increase during the last ten years in consumption of U.S. products (by percentage) by the foreign sector; 3) the reluctance of banks ("bailed out" or not) to extend the credit to consumers that has fueled domestic consumption more than earnings during the past six years, and 4) the inability of the investment banking firms to raise the sums necessary to infuse capital into businesses which create jobs, wages and consumption.


My compliments on your excellent analogy, and on your optimism, which I hope will become contagious.I am taking the liberty of reposting your comment on THE GLOBAL FUTURIST at http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/ - Douglas Castle


p.s. I hope that your predicted timing becomes reality. I am personally looking for a turnaround in the economy (domestically and internationally) in 2011-2012.
November 28, 2008 11:50 AM


THE ORIGINAL POST to THE NATIONAL NETWORKER - THE RELATIONSHIP CAPITAL TOOLKIT [edited repost] :

Dear Readers:


The study and proper acknowledgement of Human Nature is an integral part of accomplishing anything in this world. All of what we perceive as reality, with the exception of certain natural phenomena, is borne of the Human mind and its imaginings. Take a few moments and examine the notion of the SELF-FULFILLING PROPHESY and what its implications are. You may find this very interesting. Better -- you might be able to put it to practical use in the process of conducting your social and business affairs in your path toward success. Please view THE GLOBAL FUTURIST to confirm and solidify your thoughts about something which you have probably always suspected.


Faithfully,


Douglas Castle

http://aboutdouglascastle.blogspot.com/

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Thursday, November 20, 2008

WHEN ANTICIPATION BECOMES REALITY: THE SELF-FULFILLING PROPHESY

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Dear Friends:

Our actions of today are led by our anticipations about tomorrow. Stated in another way, thinking about the future shapes the present moment. If we anticipate peace and prosperity, we conduct ourselves in one way -- if we perceive a bleak future of war and economic collapse, we act accordingly. This recurring theme of the self-fulfilling prophesy in human affairs is fascinating as well as frightening. Masterful leaders and statesmen have learned to harness the powerful nature of this phenomenon in order to triumph in elections, to get legislation passed, to initiate social transformation and religious movements, and, of course, to start wars.

This phenomenon is culturally and technologically engrained into the capital markets, where traders, anticipating a price increase (for example, the price per barrel of crude oil), actually bid up the price by their pre-emptive action; or where the public, anticipating the precipitous financial decline of a company or industry, stop investing in the company or industry's securities, and stop buying its products and services as well. In theory, a good rumor, spread rapidly and across a large segment of the population, can be turned into fact. Our perceptions become our reality. The fans of theosophy and esoteric studies believe that this is an outgrowth of or a corollary to The Law Of Attraction. They may well be right.

A recent article from THE NEW YORK TIMES follows, by way of example:
####


Markets Dive in Last Hour, Carving New Lows
By JACK HEALY
Published: November 19, 2008

Wall Street doubled down on its losses on Thursday, just a day after financial markets closed at their lowest point in nearly six years.

In a day dominated by fear and uncertainty, financial markets plunged in late trading, carving new lows, after spending much of the day bobbing between positive and negative territory. The Dow Jones industrial average was 444.99 points or 5.5 percent lower Thursday afternoon at the close. The wider Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 54.14 points or 6.7 percent, adding to its losses after tumbling 6 percent on Wednesday. The Nasdaq fell 5 percent.
As stocks hopped from red to green and back again, investors continued to seek cover in safe havens like Treasury notes and gold, driving those prices higher. And a new report that jobless claims had crested to their highest levels in 16 years reminded investors that the frail economy continues to weaken.
“We think it’s going to continue to go lower,” said Ryan Detrick of Schaeffer’s Investment Research. “We don’t think people are scared enough. They’re just not showing enough fear. People are numb to this, they’re almost immune to it.”
On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that new claims for unemployment benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 542,000 last week, the highest level since July 1992. On Capitol Hill, the Senate was expected to take up a bill extending unemployment assistance to people whose benefits have expired.
Economists said the swelling jobless numbers were creating a vicious circle between Wall Street’s losses and the afflictions of the broader economy.
“The profit drag on corporate America is widening and deepening, and this is leading to more layoffs and cutbacks in capital spending, which is extending and deepening the recession,” said Stuart Schweitzer, global markets strategist for J.P. Morgan Private Bank. “We’ve gotten into a full-blown, self-feeding downturn.”

Financial shares, which took the brunt of Wednesday’s losses, continued their bad streak on Thursday. Citigroup fell by double digits for a second day, to less than $5 a share, despite news that Prince al-Walid bin Talal of Saudi Arabia was increasing his stake in the troubled banking giant to 5 percent. Banks from Wells Fargo to Bank of America to JPMorgan Chase were all down in afternoon trading.
Shares in America’s two largest automakers were mixed after Congressional leaders said any proposal to bail out the auto industry would fail if it were put to a vote this week. Democratic leaders from the House and Senate criticized the executives of Ford, Chrysler and General Motors, and said the automakers needed to make a more persuasive case that they would be responsible stewards of $25 billion in federal aid. Shares of G.M. were up slightly while Ford was lower.

Investors sold off early Wednesday after confronting data that showed an unexpectedly large drop in consumer prices, which suggested deflation could become the newest problem for policy makers. The Dow fell more than 5 percent Wednesday while the Nasdaq fell more than 6 percent.

“The problem is there is absolutely no silver lining visible,” said Arjuna Mahendran, head of Asian investment strategy at HSBC Private Bank in Singapore. “The financial crisis may now be at its tail end and we are now in a second phase where corporate distress is the key issue. A third phase may come early next year, when emerging markets will really struggle as the crisis widens and exports continue to shrink.”

Oil prices slipped below $50 a barrel, settling at $49.62 a barrel, down 7 percent.
In Europe, the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, closed down 3 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in London was down 3.2 percent. The CAC 40 in Paris declined 3.4 percent, and the DAX in Frankfurt 3 percent. In Moscow, the Micex exchange halted trading for one hour after shares fell 7.6 percent.

Credit markets remained tight. The so-called Ted spread, the gap between yields on safe three-month United States government securities and the rate that banks charge one another for loans of the same duration, was unchanged at 2.11 percentage points. The spread is well down from its peak of 4.6 points on Oct. 10, but the improvement in the credit markets has stalled over the last two weeks. Analysts consider a level of 0.5 point to 1.0 point to be normal.
Asian markets stumbled badly. The Tokyo benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average finished 6.9 percent lower, taking its loss to the year to nearly 50 percent. Government data Thursday showed Japanese exports were down 7.7 percent in October from a year earlier, the steepest decline since December 2001. The drop contributed to Japan’s $665.8 million trade deficit.
While a drop had been expected — overseas consumers have long been cutting down on spending, and the yen’s strength against other currencies makes Japanese goods more expensive overseas — the amount of the decline does not bode well for the wider economy.
The Hang Seng in Hong Kong closed down 5.2 percent, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index fell 1.7 percent.

In Sydney, the S&P/ASX in Sydney dropped 4.2 percent. The index was dragged down by the giant mining companies BHP Billiton, which fell 9.1 percent, and Rio Tinto, which plunged 13.1 percent. Like other raw materials companies, they have been affected by worries that the global downturn will damp demand.

On Wednesday, the German chemical conglomerate BASF said it would cut global production by as much as 25 percent because demand from automakers, textile companies and the construction industry dried up.

Bettina Wassener and David Jolly contributed reporting.
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####

It is important to know that the recent events in the economy do not reflect a sudden downturn at all -- these inefficiencies, abuses and areas of neglect have been going on for years -- it is simply that the news of these problems has come to light. This bad news (i.e., a poor economic report card) initiated the negative response which we see reflected in the economy.

Think about this: A bank will keep on loaning your company money until it hears that you might not continue to be creditworthy (even if this last is merely an ill-intended rumor leaked by some naysayer or detractor) -- then, it will take anticipatory action and stop making further loans. In fact, it might even declare all of your outstanding loans immediately due, creating an immediate crisis in your company.

A rumor can cause a run on the banks. A rumor can cause the destruction of virtually anything Human-made. Propaganda and news control are powerful weapons. And we base our present reality upon a supposed future. Dreams, either good or bad, might well come true, depending upon whether or not we act on them.

Philosophically (or perhaps metaphysically), there is no present: there is only the past and the anticipated future, which makes the present inconsequential.

The next time that a well-intended friend admonishes you for your depression or malaise and reminds you to "live in the present," simply tell him or her that preparing for the future has stolen your present from you.
Oh...and about the economy -- it will magically rebound as soon as people begin to believe that it has hit bottom and that it is ready to rebound.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. Please take a moment and view my new blog at http://aboutdouglascastle.blogspot.com/. Let me know your thoughts!

KEYWORDS, TERMS AND ORGANIZATIONS:

globalism, CFR, NGO, UN, WTO, IMF, central bank, outsourcing, offshoring, capital markets, import, export, international trade, strategic alliances, e-commerce, entrepreneurship, social networking, banking, finance, trade, ventures, business, securities, stock exchanges, indexes, futurism, trends, citizen ambassadorship, enterprise, capitalism, international politics, commodities, prime rate, LIBOR, foreign currencies, foreign exchange, blogs, blogging, bloggers, aol, google, yahoo, msn, AP, news, media alerts, world government, world governments, international affairs, treaties, tariffs, trade restrictions, marketing, advertising, business development, arbitrage, obtaining capital, promotion, publicity, EU, NATO, military affairs, government regulation, trade restrictions, liquidity crisis, business opportunities, web-based businesses, communication, communications, technology, intelligence, embassies, consulates, business resources, Douglas Castle,The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, international politics, elections, time management, cyberspace, AI, energy, industry, productivity, Mixx, Digg, Technorati, Sphere, Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, LinkedIn, advertising, economics, strategy, management, cooperation, widgets, blidgets, links, incoterms, CCH, UCC, freight forwarding, custom house brokers, diversity, employment, culture, micro-loans, technological convergence, trends, financial planning, FOREX, futures, stock index, inflation, recession, sub-contracting, Department of Commerce, CIOF, the next generation, amnesty, humanitarianism, foreign aid, philanthropy, charity, LinkedIn, singularity, transportation, IT, intelligence, complexity theory, energy sources, shortages, climatic change, pop-culture, survivalism, mergers and acquisitions
...

Monday, November 17, 2008

THE PARADOX OF "PROGRESS"

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Dear Friends:

This is a terrific font. It rather reminds me of my first electric typewriter, which was a Smith-Corona. Every term paper that I wrote looked like a ransom note. It has subsequently been donated to the Smithsonian, where it hangs next to Mr. Rogers' sweater and other sacred artifacts of civilization. Yes, civilization, indeed.


There are three terms (contained within a much larger group) which have never been defined to my satisfaction, and I struggle in head-wracking cerebration to understand what they really mean, as much as I find myself looking down at the floor any time that some "expert" starts using any of them without contextually defining them. They are:



  1. Civilization

  2. Intelligence

  3. Normal

Another term that I thought I understood was "progress". To me, progress always seemed to have a positive, "moving ahead and making things better" feel to it. I have come to the conclusion that progress is merely change unless there is an element of improvement or betterment to it.


In the 1960's the American Dream was one of progress. We would be better-educated; employed, promoted and paid based upon education and merit, without social or racial barriers; a multi-ethnic but fiercely undivided society of foreigners-turned-Americans united under a banner of stars and stripes, of "Liberty and Justice for All"; inventors, innovators, initiators; harmonious, grateful people, with increasing amounts of leisure time as robots and computers evolved to do more and more of our work...


The American Dream of Progress was one that become a standard by which many of the World's other societies judged themselves. The United States set the pace. Our ways, our means, our ideology spread throughout the entire planet, and permeated every pore of so many other cultures. With improved communications capability and international trade possibilities, the United States transformed all of human civilization (whatever that latter term means). There was the dream of democracy, and the lure of lucre (I couldn't resist this biblical reference...calling it "capitalism" would be too easy, and would be too nonjudgmental).


Welcome to the Winter of 2008, and to our Progress Report, both for the United States and for the "westernized" portion of the World.



  1. Financial institutions are collapsing after years of reckless speculation, lending to unworthy borrowers, and hyper- leveraging every asset, both real and imaginary;

  2. Capital markets are imploding after years of spinning blue sky into fool's gold;

  3. Unemployment is rampant and rising, with those who are fortunate enough to be employed not earning quite enough to meet current obligations;

  4. The Middle Class is becoming poorer and poorer, with decreasing longevity and a diminished quality of life;

  5. Major businesses, after years of unjust enrichment, insane greed, creative accounting, wasted third-party money and growing inefficiency are pleading with their governments for bailouts -- which are, historically speaking, bridges to nowhere but to future inflation -- so that they may serve society by keeping the citizenry (taxpayers and voters) employed.

In basic terms, there has been a great deal of change, but no progress. Perhaps we have experienced "negative progress" or "dis-progress." The World is in an economic, sociological and emotional depression, with the United States (the standard-bearer) leading the way. A very small group of people have gotten unfathomably rich during the most recent years leading up to this season of reckoning -- and they have done so at the cost of everyone else. I will not name them here.


Here is what to expect during the span of time between this moment and the Spring of 2011:



  1. A steadily increasing role on the part of governments in commercial and personal affairs at every level;

  2. A reversal in the trend toward privatization, and an increase in governmental takeovers and "nationalization" activities;

  3. An increasing percentage of people in the employ of governments and their agencies, which is the only sector of the world economy where there will be growth in employment and jobs creation;

  4. A decreased emphasis on energy independence, education, physical fitness;

  5. An increased affinity amongst many people, feeling dispossessed by capitalism, to embrace socialist ideals;

  6. A tremendous increase in violent crime -- crime borne of desperation and the perception of a lack of any viable alternative means of survival;

  7. Gains in industries which serve vice and escapism, but which are not heavily invested in real estate and infrastructure. Liquor stores will do much better than theme parks in terms of solvency and profit margins.

  8. A decline in home ownership, and an resurgence in residential rentals;

  9. A precipitous decline in commercial and industrial real estate, while businesses migrate to telecommutation and cyberspace;

  10. A revival in religion, as is customary for Humans during a deep depression and a crisis of faith in man-made social institutions, and an increased look at self-growth and self-help movements and modalities;

  11. A slow but steady increase in the number of home-centered, internet-based entrepreneurial enterprises, and local "cottage" businesses;

  12. Logjams in the areas of courts and legal systems, and a decline in attention paid to the notions of "justice" and "due process of law."

  13. The professions losing their luster as they become less well-compensated, and as individuals start making their own decisions because of a decreased faith in the time-honored validity or utility in a Professional Opinion.

  14. A relentless sytem of tax collection, as governments need to find money to replace the funds expended on bailouts, subsidies and other economically non-productive activities and poor investments.

  15. A serious re-evaluation, amongst the World's populace, of priorities and values -- a great deal of fear, worry and introspection.

How do you take advantage of this adversity? I'll share my thoughts with you on that in my next post. I have a hint, though, which I will offer all of those willing to listen:


THIS IS THE TIME FOR CEMENTING RELATIONSHIPS AND BUILDING TEAMS. There are opportunities for safety, and even prosperity there.


Faithfully,


Douglas Castle


p.s. If you have not yet subscribed to THE NATIONAL NETWORKER's FREE NEWSLETTER, I would suggest that you do so now. It's free, but filled with priceless information. Go to http://www.thenationalnetworker.com/, or to THE NATIONAL NETWORKER - THE RELATIONSHIP CAPITAL TOOLKIT.


p.p.s. Start paying serious attention to the INTERNAL ENERGY PLUS MOVEMENT. Visit THE INTERNAL ENERGY PLUS FORUM and IEP.

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Saturday, November 8, 2008

TO REWARD STUPIDITY IS TO ENCOURAGE AND PERPETUATE IT

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Dear Friends:

To reward stupidity is to encourage and perpetuate it. To my sorrow, this post is about the United States of America.

A government which "bails out" or pays off the debts of companies which have been inordinately avaricious, corrupt, inefficient, negligent, noncompetitive or just incompetent is a curious way to shore up an economy which is headed into a profound depression. When I speak of depression, I speak of people being foreclosed upon, unemployed in massive numbers and unable to provide for their basic needs. When the average American Citizen is two weeks away from total financial devastation (i.e., homelessness, joblessness, hunger and potentially violent desperation), there is, in fact, a depression.

When the volatile and knee-jerk-of-the-moment, poll-conforming stock market rises and falls based upon the news of that particular day's political speeches without reflecting any corporate performance fundamentals or longer-term potential in its assessments of stock values, it becomes anti-analytic and dangerous. Even more telling than the incredible volatility based upon rumor and innuendo is the fact that whenever the market indexes and prices rise, all of the "gains" are pulled out (and traded for desperately-needed cash) by individuals and institutions who have lost faith in both the underlying companies and in the sensibility and rationality of the markets.At the root of this disaster there exists a deadly crisis of confidence.

Sadly:


  1. Individuals are generally overleveraged to the extent that they work to pay off interest and amortization, with very little for essential expenditure and none for savings;

  2. Institutions have encouraged this by their irresponsible practices and policies, and the terms "earning it" or "saving up for it" have become quaint anachronisms amongst the populace, which is largely obessessed with FICO scores and borrowing -- all of which have been fueling incredible inflation in virtually every commodity, from housing to automobiles, because of the availability of too much money from lenders;

  3. Free Enterprise does not exist in the United States, where barriers to change are immutable, and incentives to conformity and indolence are systemically inculcated. Innovation is hindered, and a "follow the crowd" mindset has predominated a culture once fecund with inventiveness and entrepreneurship;

  4. The theoretical "Middle Class", the buffer and bedrock of any civilization is disappearing;

  5. The United States government, through its arms and agencies, seeks short-term "politically expedient" fixes by "bailing out" failing institutions (banks, investment banking houses, insurance companies and large employers) with money which it must either print or borrow, fueling inflation, increasing the National Debt, incentivizing begging, borrowing and stealing instead of earning, innovating and private-sector problem-solving.

The United States is in a severe domestic depression, and this will likely steepen over these next few years. The world, to a lesser extent, is experiencing a deepening financial crisis as well, largely due to our example. Our country has spent incredible sums on prosecuting wars, financing "reconstruction," and spreading democracy -- and it seems that all of the funds have come from the domestic treasury and have "left the system" through the use of overseas banking, contractors and other parties outside of the scope of the domestic economy.

In brief, we are an impoverished nation, living on borrowings, and on borrowed time. Our wealth may be counted on unsupported paper...paper which is inexchangeable for buying necessities. The more that our political superstructure subsidizes inefficiency and misbehavior, the deeper the pit becomes. The problem is compounded when we insist on issuing these funds without any promise, in return, for a change in the conduct that has led a great nation to the eve of reckoning of its own mortality.

The money must ultimetely go to consumers, and not to the parties who have consistently, without contrition or compunction, exploited them. The benefits must be rewards for jobs creation, innovation, efficiency -- for problem-solving instead of problem creation.

Author Patrick Kennedy has written an article about a proposed series of actions which he would see the United States undertake in order to recover from its current crisis. I agree with Pat on many of his points, and I disagree on several of them, as well. But what is most important is that Mr. Kennedy, as a concerned citizen, thought about the problem and actually set about tp the colossal undertaking of proposing a blueprint for its solution. I respect innovation and intelligence, as I respect the courage to confront the truth and to take direct action without untenable, inefficient compromise. The article follows for your information and enjoyment.


####


SOLVING THE UNDERLYING CAUSES OF OUR FINANCIAL DISASTER, by Patrick Kennedy
NOTES & SUGGESTIONS (Written on 7/6/2006 )
http://blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-HCis9sc6fqgYzJzE_UTQSloMDpctRPTVwhE0sJ742ms-?cq=1&p=6

I am not an economist, politician or an expert on war, taxes or law and it is doubtful that any reader would fully agree with all of the recovery concepts expressed in this memo. If you are interested enough to read it, you probably have an opinion – this is mine. I am aware that such things as welfare, unemployment benefits, Medicare, grants, loans, social security etc. exist; I am concerned with their administration, funding and future.

Terror is an ominous word; used daily by the media to alert us to potential danger from terrorists. Seldom is the word used by commentators or writers to describe the horror most often experienced by thousands of US citizens during their lifetime. Terror is also an appropriate word to describe;
· The mind set of a father or mother who has just lost their job to “out sourcing” and is faced with explaining to their family, why he or she cannot support them.
· The feeling that consumes you at the moment you realize that you are walking away from a house that you have loved, knowing that you have lost it and will never be going “home” again.
· The helplessness, when a family member is involved in a tragic accident or is seriously ill with no insurance or reserve and is confronted with the nightmare of substandard medical treatment or bankruptcy.
· Being too old to be hired, knowing that the social security you have paid for and counted on for 40+ years is delayed and may even be cut.
· Facing a monthly choice between food and medicine.
· A parent with a child or other family member hopelessly hooked on illegal drugs. These terrors have not been adequately addressed.

We are an industrious and resilient people, we are enthusiastic and optimistic and believe that all is never lost; that we can turn the tide and work our way through any government or self made dilemma. These assets have carried us far but, we do make mistakes – we savor and covet our right to make them and.... we all make them! We have always garnered the courage to forebear in the face of them and the will; to rise again and again in spite of them but now, we really need some legislative leadership.

We must strive to find leadership with the courage and sense of humanity to; ignore the lobbyists for deceitful agendas, the manipulating special interests with self serving issues, the colleagues who don’t share their passion for better American solutions and to fight for us – not for them!

It is easy, for the oracles of our society, who have not experienced these terrors, to say that all citizens should save more, work harder, get a better education and plan better. All of this is true and we should. But, it is equally as easy for us to say that our government is a large beneficiary of our labors and that the equity that we invest in it should help to support, in every way possible, its contributors and all of its citizens. This is also true and it doesn’t.

We are involved in a conflict testing our strength of arms and technology against an enemy that fights on will alone - at least that is what they think. They believe that; with every suicide bomber and attack against any free society - we lose our will to fight. They keenly observe that; each sadistic violent murder becomes tomorrows high profile story, each story solicits new protestors and each new protest convinces more Americans that we cannot win or that the price in American lives is too high or even that the war is costing too much money. We cannot allow this to be true.

Whether it is right or wrong to be in a conflict for the freedom of the Iraqi’s, it is definitely wrong to protest this war while it is being fought; protesters fuel our enemy’s endurance and their determination to continue to kill our soldiers. The time for objecting has past; it expired when our elected legislators voted (right or wrong – misinformed or not) to declare this war. This is a time for Americans to show their “iron”. A politician could never voice this opinion – he would be accused of violating our freedom of speech but, I can as, I am obviously not a politician.

Every sane person in the world wants the war to end and their troops to come home now, whether they believe in liberating Iraq – or not! However, we are now committed to the extent that, if we yield to the will of these assassins, hundreds of thousands of people, who now believe in us, will systematically be murdered and no one will ever trust us again. We will have delivered them into the hands of our enemies. We must stay the course, until they are capable of militarily supporting their new democracy. Despite what these terrorists think, our most feared weapon is not our strength of arms or technology; it is (as it has always been) the American will to win and prevail. These murderer’s do not need a cheerleading squad, if we let them win in Iraq they will be blowing themselves up in our cities! They proved their willingness to do this on 9/11, before we ever put a soldier in the field.

Americans all support the elimination of the evil dictators and zealots that call for American blood, who slay the innocent and repress their people’s thinking with self serving “religious” misinterpretations - all free people do. No one wants to go to war, particularly those who fight it and I personally, do not support the idea of allowing this particular war to be a catastrophic financial disaster because; it does not need to be!

Implementing the creation of any new tax, duty, tariff or law is difficult and sometimes dangerous as tax revenue must be used as intended however; desperate times call for desperate measures. There is no doubt that all of the subject matter here has been discussed (some is in place in half measures) but dismissed by CYA cautious advisors as politically not acceptable. It is easy to blame someone/everyone else for our current predicament; that exercise only empowers bitter people who are unable or unwilling to resolve difficult problems. In this spirit, I have some suggestions and observations:

This war has exacted American lives and an economic burden that our youngest and most valuable citizens will be required to endure long after we have departed. I suggest that we manage the financing of this war as a benevolent debt and not just as an act of charity.

· That we allow the Iraqis to produce their oil but insist that they execute an exclusive call on oil, for export or sale, to all nations who gave the lives of their soldiers and the funds to carry on (proportionately with the numbers of troops sent and the funds expended) in perpetuity.
· That we increase the combat benefits to our soldiers & their families by 5 times.
· That we assist them with every “oil producing” technology available.
· I suggest that we pay the Iraqi’s 50% of posted prices and use the difference to reduce the debt. This then, would give the US and its true allies a financial interest as well as a humanitarian interest in preserving their democracy.

Note: The critics will say that the US started the war to gain a foothold in a Middle Eastern oil state. Terrorists started this “war” and an ignorant, self serving, murdering dictator who sought WMD’s to exterminate any glimmer of freedom, precipitated it. We were doomed, by his arrogance, to fight him eventually – as with Hitler, better there than here and better now than later. Those that will protest this logical step (strangely), criticize and seem to be hardened against anything that generates revenue for nationalistic programs however, this is necessary. The people who love this country will not feel ashamed if we are informed that we are not giving the lives of our young and expending our financial freedom solely for holistic reasons – even if it is politically incorrect. I am not ashamed of the fact that, for whatever reason, there is another free nation in the world; though it cost us dearly.

Install a US import tax on all foreign crude oil, exempting the first $25.00/barrel and taxing 20% of any amount over $25.00/barrel. Use the proceeds to:

· Finance/subsidize alternative energy technology.
· Discourage foreign price gouging. I understand that they can produce and deliver crude oil to any destination at a cost of less than $6.00/barrel (they will soon realize that by charging over $25.00/barrel, they are financing their, alternative energy, competition).
· Balance the trade deficit.
Install a “special” windfall profit tax on domestic crude oil, exempting the first $45.00/barrel and taxing 20% on any amount over $45.00/barrel.
Use the proceeds to:
· Create funds to subsidize exploration, production and refiners, if oil falls below $20.00/Barrel (preventing the loss of continuous investment in exploration).
· Stabilize US production revenues at a profitable but, manageable level.
· Allow the economy and manufacturing to anticipate the upper level of energy and shipping costs.
. Install a “parity” tax on all imported goods and services arriving from any; non-democratic country, any country owing the US money and/or any country that violates international human rights laws as defined by us. Use the average of the 3 lowest priced US manufacturers, of like goods or services, as the marker.
*Important: Mexican goods or services should be exempt from this tax. This will;
· Decrease the exporting of US jobs.
· Regenerate the US manufacturing base with livable wages.
· Alleviate the trade deficit.
· “Possibly” reinstate and fund the social security system via new tax $ stimulation.
· Create an investment and manufacturing climate in Mexico that would induce their laborers to stay home and/or return to better opportunities than they have as illegal aliens in the US.

Install a 1% tax on each share of publicly traded stock that is sold to or by US entities with a 4% “provisional” tax on all pharmaceutical company and publicly traded pharmacy retailer stocks. The provision would exempt pharmaceutical companies that supply drugs to seniors or persons living below the US income poverty level at their cost, never market their drugs with more than a 200% markup and that did not sell medicines to (or in) foreign countries for less than they sell them to US retailers or citizens.

· This will not severely impact investors or R & D companies and it should only affect those wealthy enough to deal in stocks.
· With billions of stocks trading hands monthly, it may finance a workable, national health and livable senior drug plan.
· A national health plan, funded in this manner, would bring many corporations (auto manufactures, for example) back to the US - as supplying their workers with health care benefits has forced them into opening foreign plants.
· Forty million Americans, without health insurance, will be eternally grateful.

Replace our current income tax system with the Fair Tax Act (H.R. 25, S. 25) which has been languishing in the "in-box" of the House Ways and Means Committee since at least 1996. Exempt personal homes under $200,000 and all fuel and energy sources that are of non-fossil origin. This would;

· Eliminate the corporate income tax, and the huge cost of dealing with the income tax system that is passed on to the end consumer by every company that has a role in the making, marketing, distributing or retailing of everything we purchase. This (hidden) federal sales tax is paid by every consumer on top of all the other taxes we pay, and amounts to 15%-to-30% of the cost of every consumer product. It is paid by every person who buys things, whether they pay with Food Stamps or the proceeds of their trust fund.
· Cause the millions of tourists and illegal aliens who pay no taxes now, to pay their fair share of the cost of operating our government.
· Each year, according to the U.S. Customs Service, 60 million people enter the United States on more than 675,000 commercial and private flights. Another 6 million come by sea and 370 million by land. In addition, 116 million vehicles cross the land borders with Canada and Mexico . More than 90,000 merchant and passenger ships dock at U.S. ports. Another 157,000 smaller vessels visit our many coastal towns; none of these visitors pay US income tax.
· Allow every working American to keep his/her entire paycheck. Imagine what that alone will do for the economy!
· Make all American-made goods 15-30% cheaper on foreign markets.
· Eliminate the IRS, the single greatest disincentive to enterprise in this country.
· Promote bio-diesel (positively impacting farming and agriculture), all alternative fuel vehicles and solar/wind energy for electricity etc.
· Repatriate hundreds of millions of dollars that are lost monthly because drug dealers and others involved in illegal activities avoid paying any taxes (If they were taxed as they spent the money, the tax payers would get something out of it).
· Reclaim billions of dollars that are parked offshore (and are leaving) in accounts that are non-taxable; virtually billions would return and..... be taxable.
· The people who have money and are spending it; pay more tax and the people with little money; pay less tax. This sounds fair to me. The “hundreds” of good reasons to change the current (intentionally complex) tax system, far outweigh the “special interests” illogical rationale to keep it.

Install a “serenity” tax of 4% on, personal use, fossil fuel vehicles retailing for over $50,000. Distribute the funds to disenfranchised community tax treasuries to pay;
· Heads of households with disabilities that keep them unemployed.
· The property taxes on behalf of the senior citizens with homes valued at less than $100,000 and incomes below the poverty level. These folks do not deserve to lose a home that they have labored to own for 20+ years to a tax collector!
· This would also encourage clean burning, alternative fuel vehicle use. It may even encourage manufacturers to lower the cost of gasoline and diesel engine vehicles.
Redefine the “War on Drugs” by removing the profit to criminals. Illegal drug use costs the nation approximately $110 billion annually (not including the cost of loss of life, hospitalization, the prosecution/imprisonment of criminals and the US dollars that are lost to foreign criminals). We are a religiously orientated country and no religion advocates the use of these debilitating and dangerous substances however, no religious doctrine would advocate the costs in loss of life, human suffering or in crime either. These national disasters are and will remain a fact of our lives for as long as our government does not change our drug laws! We are perpetuating this travesty; we are creating a favorable climate for criminals and the purveyors of death by not decriminalizing drug use. Even a worse result of this failed policy, is the impact on our schools and children. I suggest the following as an alternative:

· Have all types of drugs evaluated and select only those drugs that do the least amount of physical and mental harm – primarily being natural substances.
· Tax and sell all of the chosen drugs through liquor stores subject to all local, state and federal ordinances, including legal definitions of minor’s laws and warnings.
· (This is the part that really gets interesting) Establish a non-punitive Random Student Drug Testing (RSDT) program in every school. Check all of the student population for drugs and alcohol weekly. If the use of these substances is found, include the findings on the student’s report card. Students who fail the drug/alcohol testing and/or are failing should be required to attend special “instructional” classes to get them back on track If there is no violation, issue a monthly, federally funded check of $300.00 to the parent(s) for each drug and alcohol free student who maintains passing grades!. This creates an incentive and rewards; the parents for monitoring their children and the children who do want an education and who refuse to use drugs or alcohol. This would be the ultimate “stimulus” package.
· Decriminalizing the use of “illegal” drugs would save the US 110,000,000,000 annually; there are about 30,500,000 students (including college) of the age that are susceptible therefore, we could pay the parents $300.00/month for keeping their children on track. This would also offset the amount of expense that is necessary to maintain a student in school through college, thus helping single parents and/or struggling families.
· There are many moral and religious reasons, for all parents to forbid their children to use drugs or alcohol. The truth is that many parents just cannot or will not! This “financial” incentive not only encourages them to try harder (they will) but, rewards the parents who are successful.
· Stop treating individuals that are “hooked” on drugs as criminals so they will not be forced to hook others or turn to burglary, prostitution, robbery, or embezzlement etc. in order to support their habit (resolving 80% of all existing crime). They would not be imprisoned (which would clear 75% of our future prison inmates), but rather could, without recrimination, seek legitimate medical attention with no reprisals.
· This alone will save the tax payers Billions of dollars. By decriminalizing drugs we remove the profit from the criminals, we will remove their incentive to hold our citizens hostage to their terror. Short of destroying all sources of grown drugs (We have the technology, see the novel “To Slay a Demon”), there is no other resolution that I can envision, to end the most costly war ever waged and worse terror ever imagined; the “War on Drugs”.

We, the concerned citizens of the United States, need to elect legislators who have the courage to tell us exactly what must be done; in the face of every other interest (political or otherwise) – no matter how much we like it or don’t like it– no matter what it might cost them in “ratings” or political equity and then... DO IT. Cut through the unconscionable government tangle that we have all created and/or allowed to exist and re-establish our path to financial dignity and to nationalistic pride. We need to go down in history as the generation that;

· Gave democracy a foothold in a Middle Eastern oil producing nation, without adding to the national debt.
· Did something about our dependency on foreign oil.
· Saved our county’s manufacturers.
· Resolved our illegal alien problem.
· Saved social security.
· Gave us a real national health care program.
· Saved hundreds of thousands of homes for hardship families and seniors.
· Helped to save our environment.
· Ended the IRS nightmare.
· Worked to pay off our national debt.
· Saved hundreds of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars by decriminalizing and thereby ending the War on Drugs.
· Ended our everyday terror.

P. Kennedy, a concerned citizen.

Best Regards,

Patrick Kennedy

kennedy200@sbcglobal.net


####


I am an ardent internationalist, a old-fashioned constitutionalist, and a skeptic who has worked closely enough with our government to understand just what lengths certain political aspirants ro privateers will go to in order to either get us involved in a war, or to steal our civil and constitutionally guaranteed rights (including, but not limited to lying, aiding and abetting supposed "enemies," scapegoating, malicious prosecution, abuse of "executive privilege," classifying (i.e., hiding) critical records as "secret" in the protection of the "National Interest," extortion and, of course, murder), and I do not share Mr. Kennedy's view of who actually started (or permitted) the 9/11 tragedy, or of the mechanism by which oil prices are established. But I think he gives noble recertification to the notion of "Freedom Of Speech," as well as to the idea of the virtue of trying to solve problems instead of glancing around the Capitol to find somebody to blame.

Mr. Kennedy, it seems, is worthy of the gift of democracy. If more of us cared to be as forthright and constructive as he has chosen to be, we could hoist ourselves out of the fiscal and spiritual famine that has come over this once-blessed country. Democracy, as I view it inlight of Patrick's passionate arnd coherent article, requires constant analysis and mionitoring. It requires vigilance. It needs positive inducements for decent behavior than excessive regulation and capriciously applied laws and standards.

Thank you, Pat.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

KEYWORDS, TERMS AND ORGANIZATIONS:

globalism, CFR, NGO, UN, WTO, IMF, central bank, outsourcing, offshoring, capital markets, import, export, international trade, strategic alliances, e-commerce, entrepreneurship, social networking, banking, finance, trade, ventures, business, securities, stock exchanges, indexes, futurism, trends, citizen ambassadorship, enterprise, capitalism, international politics, commodities, prime rate, LIBOR, foreign currencies, foreign exchange, blogs, blogging, bloggers, aol, google, yahoo, msn, AP, news, media alerts, world government, world governments, international affairs, treaties, tariffs, trade restrictions, marketing, advertising, business development, arbitrage, obtaining capital, promotion, publicity, EU, NATO, military affairs, government regulation, trade restrictions, liquidity crisis, business opportunities, web-based businesses, communication, communications, technology, intelligence, embassies, consulates, business resources, Douglas Castle,The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, international politics, elections, time management, cyberspace, AI, energy, industry, productivity, Mixx, Digg, Technorati, Sphere, Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, LinkedIn, advertising, economics, strategy, management, cooperation, widgets, blidgets, links, incoterms, CCH, UCC, freight forwarding, custom house brokers, diversity, employment, culture, micro-loans, technological convergence, trends, financial planning, FOREX, futures, stock index, inflation, recession, sub-contracting, Department of Commerce, CIOF, the next generation, amnesty, humanitarianism, foreign aid, philanthropy, charity, LinkedIn, singularity, transportation, IT, intelligence, complexity theory, energy sources, shortages, climatic change, pop-culture, survivalism, mergers and acquisitions...

Thursday, October 9, 2008

AS THE USA GOES...

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Dear Readers:

Please re-visit and re-read my last blog post here.

I would suggest that everyone be well prepared for these next two years.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

KEYWORDS, TERMS AND ORGANIZATIONS:

globalism, CFR, NGO, UN, WTO, IMF, central bank, outsourcing, offshoring, capital markets, import, export, international trade, strategic alliances, e-commerce, entrepreneurship, social networking, banking, finance, trade, ventures, business, securities, stock exchanges, indexes, futurism, trends, citizen ambassadorship, enterprise, capitalism, international politics, commodities, prime rate, LIBOR, foreign currencies, foreign exchange, blogs, blogging, bloggers, aol, google, yahoo, msn, AP, news, media alerts, world government, world governments, international affairs, treaties, tariffs, trade restrictions, marketing, advertising, business development, arbitrage, obtaining capital, promotion, publicity, EU, NATO, military affairs, government regulation, trade restrictions, liquidity crisis, business opportunities, web-based businesses, communication, communications, technology, intelligence, embassies, consulates, business resources, Douglas Castle,The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, international politics, elections, time management, cyberspace, AI, energy, industry, productivity, Mixx, Digg, Technorati, Sphere, Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, LinkedIn, advertising, economics, strategy, management, cooperation, widgets, blidgets, links, incoterms, CCH, UCC, freight forwarding, custom house brokers, diversity, employment, culture, micro-loans, technological convergence, trends, financial planning, FOREX, futures, stock index, inflation, recession, sub-contracting, Department of Commerce, CIOF, the next generation, amnesty, humanitarianism, foreign aid, philanthropy, charity, LinkedIn, singularity, transportation, IT, intelligence, complexity theory, energy sources, shortages, climatic change, pop-culture, survivalism, mergers and acquisitions...

Saturday, September 6, 2008

AS GOES THE USA, SO TOO GO THE REST - USUALLY

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WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES.

Dear Friends:

The United States has traditionally been viewed by the majority of the world's population as an initiator, a leader, a guide to follow...an example to emulate. This is nothing new -- it dates back to the American Revolution, and America's rebellion against the British in the interests of 1) less regulation; 2) lower taxes and tariffs; 3) freedom of expression; 4) unbridaled entrepreneurship, capitalism and free enterprise; 5) minimal government involvement or intrusion into the personal lives of individuals and into the commercial affairs business enterprises -- each of these, in rapid retrospect, looks like a presidential campaign speech "talking point". My apologies.

The lead time between initiating an activity and seeing its ultimate result is sometimes lengthy. Early followers are often doomed to the fate of those whom they have chosen to follow -- only at a later time. Countries who have mimicked or followed US ideologies, technologies and political structure have frequently benefitted in some fashion, but have invariably paid a dear, albeit deferred, price. The lunacy of the lemmings -- going for that last swim. over the cliff into the ocean.

The reason (and I do have one) for the preamble that you just lip-synched your way through was to arrive at the following basic assertion, to wit: Nations which follow in the footsteps of the United States will eventually slip in the same brand of poop or get sucked down and swallowed into the same bed of quicksand that devoured the US pioneers who preceded them. A smart government understands this, and does not blindly continue to follow the US into a pit; they instead constantly monitor the progression of events in the US, and adjust trajectory accordingly. This requires a great deal of talent.
LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Note: You should not, as a rule, follow anyone blindly when you have the wonderful gift of long-range vision. Do not just plot a course -- monitor the course, and be prepared for course correction as may be required. Do not commit to any course of action which does not have a maximum timeframe, a maximum budget and a constant review process.

TRENDS -- THESE NEXT TWO YEARS IN THE USA:

1. Increasing US unemployment through attrition and reduced jobs creation because of a severe domestic recession, further enhanced by a global recession. I believe that actual unemployment (as opposed to the statistics reported by the Unemployment Departments and Labor Departments) to exceed 8% by March, 2009. Expect people to be revisiting the expression "depression" within the next six months. With this increase in unemployment, expect a real dollar decrease in GDP, housing starts, construction, exports, investment portfolios (as well as retirement pensions and portfolios), a decrease in consumer spending, a decline in the value of the US Dollar and all dollar-denominated or dollar-backed instruments, increased foreign ownership and control of U.S. properties and investments. Expect an increase in confrontational and violent crime, and in the traditional calls for more rigorous law enforcement, freer prosecutorial lattitude and harsher prison sentences.

2. More and bigger government, more regulation, less lattitude, and more brain drain. Expect the Government to virtually nationalize and control (not merely as an overseer or a trustee, but as an owner) the commercial banking business, and all of the institutions surviving the purge taking place at present. The idea of the "cashless society" is very close at hand. In addition, the US Treasury Department and several other esteemed federal government agencies are exploring ways to exploit various existing technologies to track all movements of persons, vehicles and money. Do not be taken by surprise if the IRS and other government functionaries begin a policy of directly debiting your checking account for amounts which you may owe, or which a government agency "assesses" you owe it. Think about E-Z Pass, IRS Electronic Filing and Payment, RFID implants, and the like. As Delilah said to Samson after giving him history's most infamous crewcut..."How could you give me this great power and expect me not to use it?"

3. An increasing percentage of employed people will be working for the government, for government agencies, and for major contractors virtually controlled by the government. Of the existing labor force, it is estimated that, at present, 1 in 4 persons works for a government (federal state, or local), government agency, or major contractor. You should expect this to become closer to 1 in 3 persons during the course of 2009, due to the extreme loss of corporate positions and the slight increase in government positions for managing the industries which the government seeks to stabilize through privatization.

4. Commercial and industrial real estate will drop precipitously in value as cyberspace becomes the venue of choice for entrepreneurial businesses, and better-established companies which want to minimize costs by eliminating salespersons, cashiers, display racks and replacing them with e-commerce shopping carts supported by thumbnail product sketches.
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5. Expect rapid advances in stem-cell research and its applied technologies. Conversely, expect slowdowns (due to a lack of available capital) in nanotechnology, alternative energy technologies and new technological start-up companies. Most start-up companies will be selling re-packaged bundles of existing technologies through artful marketing.
These are a few of the things that you can expect to happen. Candidly, and lamentably, I believe that I am even a bit optimistic in my portrayal of the above scenario.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Faithfully,
LLLLLLLL___________--------------
Douglas Castle
THE GLOBAL FUTURIST

Thursday, August 7, 2008

TRENDS at 7 August 2008

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Dear Friends:

It is almost the middle of August, 2008, and the economy of the World is in turmoil. The exact causality is not known, despite what the pundits might tell us after the fact, as they usually do. Sadly, they give very conditional and nebulous advice in terms of facing what lies unseen ahead of us, but they enjoy a lively ex post facto (e.g., too late) debate about why things happened...about the why of history.

The three principal benefits of studying history are 1) understanding human eccentricities and propensities; 2) understanding the conditions at present, and how we have arrived at the position which we are in; and, lastly, 3) to predict the future.

Please take a moment and re-read the top line, printed in honest blue. Some crucial trends (and their projected course for the next three years) are cited below for you to think about, investigate and act upon if you are inclined to maximize your potential benefits and to minimize your potential losses.


UNEMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT and ENTREPRENEURSHIP

With Fortune 500 Companies and the Financial Institutions Sector losing credibility, liquidity, market share, and opportunities for upward mobility, unemployment will rise to levels not seen since the Great Depression in the United States, with the World following at a short lag. Many of the best US minds will "outsource themselves" to become expatriates in other countries with greater opportunity. In a wicked twist of social darwinism, the void in the United States will be filled with less-skilled immigrants belatedly chasing the American Dream. The remaining major corporate employers will hire these individuals at lower wages, lower standards and with the expected result of declining productivity and quality of service.

I suspect that US and G-8 corporations will continue to outsource every single function which is not geographically sensitive. At this moment, the US is an exporter of jobs, training, investible dollars and talent. Despite the decline of the US Dollar, expect this trend to continue, and at an accelerating pace.

The principal survival skills in the coming economy will be frugal living, flexibility, mobility and entrepreneurship. Job security will become something that can no longer be vested through seniority - it will have to be made by each individual through finding a niche and a means of profiting by serving it. Education will be far less of a success-determining factor than innovation. Entrepreneurship is powerful, personal and portable. Expertise in certain vertical technological fields will be almost as potent as entrepreneurship. A combination of technical expertise and entrepreneurship, using the World Wide Web as a medium will indeed be an unbeatable combination.

I would suggest that you carefully review author Adam J. Kovitz's Laws Of Relationship Capital , and take a second look at author Jay Goldberg's straightforward, no-nonsense book titled: HOW TO GET, KEEP AND BE WELL-PAID IN A JOB. (Outskirts Press, Denver, CO.) if you are trying to seek a position within the lower ranks of the corporate heirarchy. The book is superb for workforce returnees, as well as beginners. In the economy to come, every one of us who is not blessed with an enormous trust fund will be a beginner.

THE "GREEN-COLLAR" INDUSTRIES REVOLUTION

Through my work with the CHILDREN'S INTERNATIONAL OBESITY FOUNDATION, I was fortunate enough to meet Executive Director Felix Urrutia at the NYC Police Athletic League (PAL). He is, in so many ways, a kindred spirit. While we met based upon PAL's increasing focus on overweight and obesity, especially amoung the urban ethnic population(who are hardest hit by any social or economic crisis), our conversations have taken us further into the realm of PAL's mission, a great part of which involves getting at-risk youth and youth exiting the prison system to learn skills and to become gainfully employed as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Mr. Urrutia introduced me to the growing world of "green-collar" jobs, careers involved in hydroponic gardening, ecology, environment, natural resource sustenance, recycling and numerous other ecologically-grounded pursuits. PAL actually trains these youth and puts them to work, giving them an opportunity to earn a decent, honest living, without being judged or stigmatized as "ghetto kids" or as "ex-convicts". PAL, in its steadfast dedication to its mission, is a visionary; a pioneer in a new job market which is open to everyone. with growing concerns over the environment and climatic change, watch for an increase in attention and opportunity in the 'green-collar" sector. I had, in my stereotying and snobbery, misjudged PAL.

My favorite foundation (CIOF) and PAL are involved in numerous ventures because of their (PAL's) surprisingly aggressive attitude toward stopping violence by increasing education, employment and self-worth among disadvantaged urban youth. Keep an eye on Felix Urrutia and Bobby Ferazi (who works with newly-released former offenders), both of PAL. They have not only found a wonderful niche, but they are opening it for others to enter. I believe it will be a growth industry through all urban cities in the US and worlwideWelcome to the Green-Collar Revolution, and a chance at reducing violence and despair. And to think that I had always thought PAL was just about boxing. I am proud to count these Pioneers for Humanity among my friends.

If I may wax poetic: I found some greens among the blues. I now sport a PAL golf shirt.

CAREERS INVOLVING WEATHER, CLIMATIC CHANGE and THE ENVIRONMENT
Just as the Green-Collar Revolution is taking off, expect an increasing number of careers in meteorology and environmentalism; the first, because climatic change is a "government-sanctioned" reality, and businesses are concerned about its effects; the second, because every G-8 government is regulating with increased ferocity against environmental abuses, and businesses need to be in full compliance with these tougher regulations. Further, and for the sake of the public's perception, each one of these major companies wants to buy penance by coming up with "save the environment" and environmental conservation programs. While this latter conduct may seem somewhat like a Mafia Don giving a tithe to the church, the ultimate result is that it is a stimulus to this vertical area of employment opportunity.

A quick synopsis of what has been said so far: While conventional careers are unraveling, opportunities in green-collar, weather-related and environmental areas are on the rise. If you do not choose to join one of these vertical sectors, you will have to be an entrepreneur.

CAREERS INVOLVING ALTERNATIVE FUELS and ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

Every G-8 member nation has become concerned with the need for sources of alternative energy. Technical careers in alternative energy research, development and implementation will be growing over these next few years. Ironically, many of these employment opportunities will be sponsored by the recently engorged petroleum companies. These petro-giants 1) have the money, 2) want to either control or squelch these alternative technologies, and 3) want to show the general public, comprised of victimized, wary consumers, that they are "doing something about the energy crisis." That phrase is becoming a pre-emptive defensive public relations mantra for the Sisters of the Oiligopoly.

Most of the dollars associated with these careers will be allocable to the atomic energy alternative, with an emphasis on thorium-fueled reactors. Most of the residual dollars will be allocable to the development of hybrid, solar and wind technologies. Very little of this allocation will go in the direction of "clean coal" (now there's a paradox) because of the impracticality of dealing with its inherent toxicity and pollution potential.

THE RE-EMPOWERMENT OF THE UNITED NATIONS

The United Nations, an institution whose merits and relevance are hotly debated in the United States and other G-8 member nations, will rise to increased prominence as the United States strives to recover credibility, cooperation and friendships lost or injured during the last six years. Many present-day detractors of the UN will find themselves knocking on its doors for assistance in building improved international trade relationships. I am hopeful that the UN can meet this need, and that it will act as an honest arbiter and broker.

THE FURTHER RISE OF NGOs and CAUSE-BASED ORGANIZATIONS

As discussed in numerous earlier posts, NGOs (Non-Government Observers, or Non-Government Organizations) and other cause-based organizations will continue to grow in size and influence. The traditional capitalistic model of the for-profit enterprise is under fire, and while profits may indeed fuel progress, the public has become increasingly disapproving of their social, environmental and ethical performance. Capitalism, as any other system, has its negatives and toxic byproducts. An increasingly traumatized public has become disenchanted with "big business". This perception comes and goes - it is part of a cycle roughly synchronized (albeit at a lag) with such variables as 1) stock market and capital market performance, 2) publicized prosecutions of corporate executives, and 3) rising unemployment and news of layoffs.

A TRADING EXCHANGE FOR NON-PRECIOUS METALS

It was inevitable. As the capital markets become perceived as riskier and less stable in general, the investing public (and the institutions which manage wealth) needs to find a new arena. Low interest rates, erratic stock market performance and a renewed interest in in-the-ground commodities have paved the way for trading exchanges in non-precious metals and minerals. Thorium and the Rare Earth Elements have been receiving a great deal of attention in these emerging micro-exchanges. The effect of this new "marketization," over time, will be an increase in the liquidity of these non-precious metals, and an increased opportunity for all investors to participate in these investments without their having to be owners and operators of mines. It will likely also result in price increases for every one of the traded commodities as trading activity and exchange formalization and acceptance grow.

On August 1st, the following article appeared in Section C-1 of the WALL STREET JOURNAL:


"The New Chemistry of Speculation
Contracts in Metals, Food Show Difficulty in Placing Shackles on Market Bets By IANTHE JEANNE DUGAN -August 1, 2008-

Even as Washington attempts to crack down on speculation in food, fuel and metals, Wall Street is rolling out new ways to bring in money.

In May, Credit Suisse Group and Deutsche Bank AG began offering investments in iron ore, a component of steel. About one billion tons of iron ore is mined a year but isn't traded on a futures exchange. So it has been virtually impossible for speculators to bet on price movements.

Carl Weine

The investment banks were inundated with interest in iron-ore deals, which function like futures contracts. In just two months, investors and hedgers took on more than $500 million of notional exposure -- about 2.7 million metric tons -- making this one of the biggest commodities markets to spring up almost overnight.

The new markets show how hard it will be for legislators to curb commodities speculation.Such trading is spreading to an array of other goods, from jet fuel to chicken, that have been off-limits to investors because they aren't traded on futures markets. They also are offered for commodities already bought and sold on global exchanges, including crude oil, corn and coffee. Through Goldman Sachs Group Inc., clients can invest in palm oil and other biofuel components. Deutsche Bank is trading ruthenium, an obscure metal used in fountain pens. Along with other firms, Deutsche is expanding into rhodium, used in catalytic converters. Deals are being teed up in lithium and "rare earth" metals..." [end of WSJ quote]

As always, thank you for taking time to look into the future with me.

Stay tuned for (cue drumroll...) :

*GROWTH IN THE SELF-IMPROVEMENT AND "INTROSPECTIVE" MARKETS

*CYBERSPACE and TECHNOLOGICAL CONFLUENCE WEAKENS THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

*PRIVATE LENDING and FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS DISPLACE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

*GREAT STRIDES TO BE MADE IN GENETIC TECHNOLOGIES (BIO-ENGINEERING), NANO-TECHNOLOGIES and AI (Artificial Intelligence)

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

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