PLEASE, SIR....I MUST INSIST ON ANOTHER (OR THREE)

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WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES

(LOOK AT THE EXCITING MONTAGES. THEY ARE COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT.)

Dear Readers:

This post is merely a re-referencing of three other posts, which I would like for you to read immediately, or at least after you've had your second cup of coffee. I am taking a leap here, because I am only too keenly aware that many of my brightest and most faithful readers actually prefer prune juice as their accelerant of choice. Incidentally, you might be interested in this tidbit of factual information: Did you know that Dr. Pepper soda is simply Coca-Cola with prune juice added to it? .

Here are the references:

http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/2008/04/please-sirid-like-another.html

THE CHILDREN'S INTERNATIONAL OBESITY FOUNDATION BLOG (most recent posting)

THE INTERNATIONALIST PAGE BLOG (most recent article)

I believe that you will find these articles to be of great interest, as well as a helpful planning tool, with just a small bit of arm-twisting for charity. I make no apologies.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

THE KING IS DEAD- LONG LIVE THE KING

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WE MUST EITHER ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE OR CREATE IT OURSELVES

Dear Friends:

The title of this post should bring a smile to the wrinkled face of every Egyptologist or student of secret societies. Throughout the world, and principally in the United States, we are experiencing a radical shakeup in the Citizenry's faith and trust in the Government, and its duly-chartered and licensed institutions.
The scenario is disillusioning enough to bring even some of the most narcoleptic proponents of begrudging apathy to a state of alarm, consternation and re-evaluation. When you wake up to discover that your paradise is actually a prison, and that your protectors are truly your captors, the psychological ramifications are frightening.

The administration in power in The United States, accompanied by a dwindling number of disenheartened allies, is fighting an endless "war" against terrorism, which has greatly increased instability in the Middle east; alienated many western allies and trading partners; put the country into massive debt, much of which is held by other nations (e.g., as creditors); caused a precipitous decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar and massive inflation, principally driven by unprecedented oil-price increases and resultant cost-push increases in all transportation-dependent services and products; precipitated steepening unemployment and declining output (largely due to outsourcing, offshoring and a decline in domestic initiative and entrepreneurship), and the virtual elimination of the "checks and balances" prescribed by the U.S. Constitution (as well as the concept of "due process under the law," which no court has the testicular fortitude to opine upon, let alone rule upon), which is largely disregarded by the occupants of the White House for cited reasons of "executive privilege," "secrecy in the interests of National Security," and "special wartime powers," none of which are apparently subject to any domestic or international laws or codes of justice, ethics, honor or even tradition... and ---

1. The fall of many big-name investment banking firms and commercial banks due to their overextension of readily-available credit, their propensity to gamble for short-term gain, a lack of impartial oversight and accountability, and an incredible failure to prudently diversify investments and avoid large concentrations in any one customer or investment product -- this is Finance 101...Mr. Lehmann is crying out from the grave. As for Keynes, he stopped talking long ago (as some dead people tend to do);


2. Growing concerns about climatic change (whether real or imagined), and its ramifications;


3. Shocking declines in the quality of life, availability of affordable healthcare (and medical insurance), and fitness of the population (I could point to the obesity statistics);


4. Radically changing demographics, and the non-integration and assimilation of most newer immigrants into what used to be "mainsteam American culture." There is an increase in the Tower Of Babel Effect -- the formation of cultural enclaves, barrios, ghettos and other inwardly-oriented protective cultural preservation configurations. We are not a melting pot...we are a camprground for disparate groups who are more co-inhabitants than neighbors. While this effect seems most pronounced in the United States, it is proliferating throughout Europe, as well.

There is a great deal of apocalyptic writing, speaking and thinking. Read the most recent novels by Stephen King, Dean Koontz and others. The motion picture industry is turning out more films about the end of the world than ever before. It is a popular theme, but the crowds do not leave the theatres smiling. The population is squaring off, albeit meekly and slowly, against the government and large institutions. "Big government" and "big business" are being demonized.

During these next five years, watch for the following trends and tendencies, bearing in mind that preparation can be the difference between being hit by a car or getting a lift in one:

1. Acceleration in the proliferation of ecommerce, and a reduction in the prevalence of paper media. As security measures improve on e-commerce websites, and as transportation becomes increasingly expensive, a greater percentage of the world's population will conduct a greater percentage of their purchases online;
2. Personal service, and even telephonic helpdesk services will become increasingly scarce, minimizing the interpersonal contact between consumers and service providers. The availability and quality of all services will continue to decline. Those exceptional sellers and providers of services to the wealthiest minority of consumers will provide interpersonal service, but only at a tremendous price premium;
3. Wires will rapidly begin to disappear as all communications equipment becomes wireless. Newer homes will be built with fewer electric outlets;
4. In several of the G-8 Nations (including the United States), paper currency and coin will vanish, as all payment and transfers will be done by institutional wire or by credit or debit card. Taxes will be estimated and extracted directly by governments from bank accounts, and the burden will be entirely on the individual to contest and disprove the government's "tax estimates" -- this process will be as discouraging as it is difficult;
5. Most of the United States' wealthiest and brightest individuals will live abroad as expatriates, or will apply for alternative citizenship;
6. Fossil fuels will give way to nuclear energy, most likely provided by thorium-based reactors, the first of which will be built in the G-8 nations within the next three years;
7. Executives will opt for private jet charter or lease services as commercial airlines in the G-8 nations continue to decline in their ability to service demand;
8. In the United States, immigrants (both legal and illegal) who are not fluent in English will outnumber English-speaking residents and citizens;
9. Communication media will be more efficient than ever before, but the willingness to take maximum advantage by speaking the same language will continue to steeply decline;
10. There will be a virtual elimination of the middle class throughout virtually every industrialized nation. The bluebloods will continue onward in indifference, some entrepreneurs and professionals will remain at the lower strata of the wealthy class, but the balance of the populace (probably more than 75% by census) will be desperately struggling to survive.

Students of history, as well as some uniquely visionary thinkers will see that we are approaching the end of an era. This invariably means confusion, violence, rampant distrust, re-grouping (as in medieval fiefdoms), and survival of only the extremely wealthy or the very, very enterprising.

If you are reading this (which you are), devise your plans based upon the assumption that you have between three to five years at maximum to become very rich or very clever. I would recommend both. And while you are in the process of building these fiscal and intellectual munitions, try to maintain a low profile so you don't get sidetracked by government investigations or an indeterminate prison sentence. Any actions taken in disagreement with the persons in power are not protected by either civil rights, constitutionally protected rights, or human rights.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

PLEASE, SIR.....I'D LIKE ANOTHER.

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Dear Friends:

"These are very dangerous times."

How many bleary-eyed street-corner philosophers have you heard making this profound observation regarding the Human Condition ? (which, incidentally, sounds like an incurable disease -- picture it, if only for a moment: the court systems of our increasingly litigious world, as clogged as a long-haul trucker's arteries, with class-action lawsuits against an endless roster of plaintiffs liable for their failure to change Human Nature -- makes you grin, doesn't it?).



The Human Condition remains unchanged, principally due to the persistence of Human Nature, which not only resists change, but has a propensity to avoid it at all possible costs. We generally are happier to dance with "the devil we know" than to go out on a blind date with the unfamiliar. In the paradox of our species, we all seem to understand that all potential gains involve the taking of risks, yet we are generally content to let others take those risks while we hide in our caves and await word of the outcome through the all-pervasive and sensationalistic media.



This risk-aversion is generally a protective instinct, but it becomes an impediment to survival when the circumstances about us change, and new behaviors are called for, while the older, instinctually-entrenched ones become nothing more than enslaving inertia. We stand in utter disbelief, and complain bitterly about situations, and yet we do nothing to change them...that is unless:



1. We are actually starving, homeless, or threatened with danger that is perceived as imminent (i.e., a mean-looking fellow with an unfashionable stocking cap and a sawed-off shotgun tells us that if we do not open the store safe, he will kill our children while we are forced to watch);



2. We can take some action without being identified with its outcome, thereby avoiding persecution, prosecution and other -ution suffixed words relating to "consequences". ***I have avoided mentioning Elliot Spitzer's name here, as that would be bad form and perceived by many of my colleagues as a "cheap shot."



3. We perceive that we have nothing to lose, so we just gamble. Gambling is the contrarian component which is hard-wired into the otherwise conservative and hyper-protective mechanics of Human behavior. If I have $10 left in my bank account, it is worth so little that I would rather buy a lottery ticket or make a sports bet than save it and enjoy the exponential growth effect of compound interest (albeit posthumously).



BUT I HAVE DIGRESSED....



Speaking Globally, watch for the following trends and tendencies in the near-term (1 to 3 years):

A NEW FORM OF LIQUIDITY CRISIS

There will be four major "liquidity" crises, each one brought about by a different type of causal agent.

The U.S. Dollar will plummet against other currencies due to a combination of 1) weakness against the Euro and other world currencies; 2) a rejection of the U.S. Dollar by certain industries as a standard means of acceptable payment; 3) the international credit standing of a United States which is ensnared in accumulating debt -- debt which can only be paid by the printing of reams of scrip (e.g. unsupported paper or electronic currency), or through untenable tarrifs and taxation -- and cannot possibly generate the income or other value to cover debt service payment, let alone actual debt retirement.

There will be an increasing shortage (due to a combination of Global Warming, pollution and inadequate or expensive purification technologies) of safe, pure drinking water worldwide.

There will be an increasing shortage of oil throughout the non oil-producing nations brought about through production decreases by OPEC and Company (to support inflated prices), hoarding of emergency reserves, and an tentative, though appreciably increased, utilization of hybrid and non-fossil fuel-powered vehicles, equipment, and the like.

There will be a worldwide decrease in available liquidity in "meaningful and credible" currencies as a flight to commodities increases and acquires momentum. Simply put, picture masses of concerned persons trading away their paper currencies and financial instruments for tangible commodities, such as precious metals and a host of medieval favorities, plus some newer ones like thorium and the Rare Earth Elements, which have unclear "intrinsic" value at the moment, but have unmistakable practical value as important depletable resources necessary to atomic energy production and many technologies.



TECHNOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE

By "technological convergence" I mean that different types of communications devices will soon be technologically sophisticated enough that each type can send and receive messages and media from eachother. Simplistically, picture: your daughter's iPod talking your son's Blackberry; watching movies on your Treo or PDA; and. recording news programs (and "Friends" reruns) on your cellphone. All of these devices will become interconvertible -- a great boon to communications, coupled with a great dependency and vulnerabily. Science teaches us (if we bother to go to school that day) that more complex systems are most easily upset by ambitious viruses. Don't say that I didn't warn you. Somes themes for the next presidential administration to ponder:

ALTERNATIVES FOR EVERYTHING

HEALTH CRISES

LEADERSHIP CRISES

ILLITERACY ON THE RISE

COMMODITIES OVER PAPER

THE MIDDLE CLASS FALLS OUT

WE SIGNED WHAT TREATY? WHO AUTHORIZED THIS?

These will be very challenging times for traditionalists and the blindly faithful. They will be superb times for 1) activism; 2) neo-fuedalism: and 3) entrepreneurial individuals who are communications-savvy.

I can hardly wait. As for those of you who are not reading this article (it's always funny to address the audience that isn't there...it's a curious paradox, but very politically expedient)...Bend Over.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

For THE GLOBAL FUTURIST

A RADICAL SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL BALANCE

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Dear Friends:

History, like a poorly-prepared meal, tends to repeat itself. The only non-technological factors within the context of history that change are 1) the length of the socioeconomic cycle, and 2) the amplitude (e.g., the magnitude) of the highs and the lows. I have heard no end of metaphors for history... a sine wave; a pendulum; a coiled spring... just to name several.

This systematic repetition will likely be the case until such time as the deeply ingrained nature of the Human psyche actually evolves.

We tend, as a group, to have a short span of memory, a limited temporal focus, and an "all or nothing" response pattern to things happening around us. We have lived through numerous holocausts, bouts of xenophobia, periods of induced paranoia, civil wars that turn into protracted zero-sum games, lies (and careers) that have come unravelled, and economic depressions. We have a foolish proclivity to think that whatever social or economic circumstances we find ourselves in have never occurred before.

Our persistent failure to analogize (have I invented a word?) keeps us running into to same tree, over and over again. Nobody ever moves the tree -- we just keep forgetting that it's there.

Before I continue this post, I bring you a timely advertisement from Ex-Im Bank regarding an upcoming International Trade Conference in California. After this brief commercial, we can discuss the Future.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


"This conference will bring together small to mid-sized enterprises and trade promotion service organizations in both the public and private sectors with experts from across the state to dialog on the current issues, challenges and opportunities facing California's global trade and investment community. This year's conference will feature panels and presentations on using web based solutions for qualified information, marketing, trade finance, interpretation/translation, collaboration and security.
AgendaOnline RegistrationMail-in RegistrationSponsors-ExhibitorsConference History
Event Info
April 25, 20088:00a.m.-4:00 p.m.California Chamber of Commerce1215 K STREET, 14TH FLOOR (At the corner of 13th and K Street ESQUIRE BUILDING)SACRAMENTO, CA 95814

More Info
Monterey Bay International Trade Association (MBITA)P.O. Box 523Santa Cruz, CA 95061 Tel. 831-335-4780Fax 831-335-4822http://www.mbita.org/ http://us.f559.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=tlivoti@mbita.org
SUPPORTING ORGANIZATIONS...."


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

It is a comfort to know that Ex-Im is still in the business of fostering and assisting in solidifying trade opportunities for the benefit of U.S. exporters, for the Balance Of Payments, for the Balance Of Trade and for other things patriotic and fiscally salubrious.

The sad irony is that the U.S. does not have many things that it can export. Most every manufactured item is outsourced to enterprises in foreign nations. Most U.S. consumers purchase durable goods that were either imported, produced by multinationals, or which are merely packaged in the United States, but with the bulk of the value being added overseas.

The U.S. has several things that it can and does export:

• Jobs and employment opportunities;
• Dollars (in the purchase of goods and services provided by other countries);
• Agricultural commodities;
• Weaponry;
• Natural resources (metals, minerals, and mined commodities).

Let's take a quick look at each of these, and the associated benefits and costs:

JOBS AND EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Domestic companies can increase their profit margins in the shorter-term by outsourcing and offshoring. But the aggregate costs include rising permanent unemployment; loss of the value-added components of profits, and increased dependence upon foreign labor. The longer-run costs include the loss of management skills and the exodus or loss of technical talent; the loss of entire businesses and industries; the loss of income and wealth to the extent that we become weaker consumers, as well as weakened producers...

DOLLARS

The U.S. spends dollars on foreign goods and labor...they seem less expensive. But in the longer-run, this causes a devaluation of the dollar, and an exodus of dollar-denominated wealth from the United States. In addition, a great deal of the instruments representing the National Debt are in the hands of non-U.S. holders. As the U.S. borrows increasing sums from outside of its own citizenry and domestic institutions, the U.S. becomes enslaved by its indebtedness owed to parties offshore, and becomes perceived as a poorer international credit risk; this further devalues the U.S. dollar, and all instruments denominated in U.S. dollars. This effect is rapidly being heightened by the rise in the value of the Euro versus the U.S. dollar. The U.S.' most fundamental weakness -- we are utterly dependent on OPEC nations to give us the bulk of our fuel. As oil prices rise (as of the day of this writing oil was selling at an average of $105.32 per barrel!), the U.S. dollar declines, as well as virtually all of the other indices of prosperity.

Nightmare: The OPEC nations (and other nations in the course of ordinary commerce) insist on payment in Euros instead of U.S. dollars for virtually everything that they supply. Dollars become useless scrip. The wealth of a nation is wiped out immediately. The U.S. is vulnerable, and doesn't hold much leverage (as a non-supplier of too many things made and obtainable elsewhere) except in terms of its formidable military. But a military needs funds to pay for manpower and materiel. A trained mercenary goes to the highest bidder. What's a soldier to do when patriotism does not pay his/her family's living expenses?

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

The U.S. is blessed with fertile soil and sophisticated agricultural technologies. It is one of the few arrows left in the national quiver. The U.S. has the capacity to feed many of the world's hungry. It is also unlikely that we'll experience any serious blowback from this: if I were a betting type of fellow, I would bet that there are very few emerging nations who are turning our carrots into dangerous projectiles, or weaponizing wheat for the launch of a stealthy moonlight Triscuit attack on the United States, its territories or possessions. I am only slightly concerned about brussells sprouts being used as warheads aimed toward key cities and national monuments.

WEAPONRY

Someone famous once said "If you give a person power, he will be compelled to use it." I tend to agree. The reality of U.S. troops being killed by U.S.-made weapons has already arrived. This blowback continues, and dates back to the arming, by the United States, of Afghanistan in the latter's conflict with the former Soviet Union. Combine this with the problem that much U.S. weapons production and actual soldiering has been, well, outsourced. Hmmm. Human nature, as evidenced by history, would indicate that weapons will invariably be turned on the seller. This is only a matter of who, when and to what extent.

There is also that quirky aspect of Humanity that somehow compels friends of convenience (individuals, as well as nations) to become enemies.

NATURAL RESOURCES

The United States is rich in metals and minerals. These metals and minerals, mostly considered industrial or "non-precious" are becoming increasingly important. Thorium will likely come into common use as a fuel for atomic reactors as many non oil-producing nations accept a safer variation on atomic power theme. And the United States has quite a bit of thorium, as well as Rare Earth Elements (reference, THORIUM ENERGY, INC., which can be located at: http://thoriumenergyinc.blogspot.com ), which are absolutely essential to virtually all modern technology, and which are continually finding increased applicability. Thinking about it, having valuable natural resources and reserves in the U.S., coupled with a steadily-increasing demand for the these materials in all of the technology-producing nations should give the U.S. a big stick with which to negotiate. Right? Maybe not.

With a declining dollar and little else to sell to other nations, the United States' exporting of these increasing precious non-precious resources and reserves is similar to tearing down the walls of your home and throwing them into the fireplace to heat the living room. This is the economic version of a Black Hole.

Yes, there will be a radical shift in the world's balance of power, and it has already begun, with momentum increasing daily. But the media and other forces within the United States are trying to defer admitting the inevitable.

The United States should be careful that it doesn't sell itself completely into slavery.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

YOU HAVE BEEN SERVED.

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Dear Friends:

YOU HAVE BEEN SERVED.

...an ominous title for a post about what we can expect during these next five years. I see that it has caught your attention. That is a positive occurrence for both of us.

There will be some tremendous and traumatic changes in the world during the course of only a few years, and savvy individuals will incorporate these anticipated changes into their plans and thrive, while others will merely suffer the consequences. By crude analogy, it is a matter of "surf, or be crushed by the tidal wave."

NOTICE: The article which follows is not intended to be treated as tax, financial, investment or legal advice.The reader is advised to seek the assistance of legal and investment counsel, and other experts and advisors as may be necessary, prior to embarking upon any investment strategy and before making any investment. Investment feasibility varies from individual to individual, depending upon personal economic circumstances, expectations and objectives.

1) The United States will be embroiled in economic warfare with the EU, the oil-producing countries and with China, as: the US dollar declines against the Euro and other currencies; as more jobs are exported from the US through increased outsourcing and offshoring; as the US domestic economy declines steeply (in terms of falling employment, decreasing real personal income, increasing price levels, increasing imports, decreasing imports, forced consolidations of numerous financial institutions, increasing outbound investment by US enterprises and funds in foreign economies) and as China becomes an increasingly powerful exporter and consumer. This trend will continue, without reversal, for more than ten years, and US dollars (as well as many US dollar-based investments) will lose tremendous value. The threat of a "cold war" with China, and perhaps even Russia will replace terrorism as the principal national security concern.

2) The US and other G-8 Nations will move in the direction of a cashless society as the counterfeiting of currency becomes increasingly easy due to improved computer scanning technologies.

3) Despite existing fears about identity theft, Internet-based commerce will boom as fuel prices continue to rise (or remain uncertain), consumers become more computer-oriented and educated in facilitating transactions online, and computer security technology is significantly improved.

4) Investments in all aspects of alternatives to fossil fuels will do increasingly well, especially those involving clean nuclear power. Holdings in thorium properties and thorium mining rights will dramatically increase in value internationally, as thorium becomes acknowledged as one of the safest and "cleanest" nuclear fuel sources. Hybrid automobiles will increase in popularity and proliferation, and electricity will be revisited as a transportation power source.

5) Religious fundamentalism, principally Christian, will find an increasing number of adherents in the G-8 Nations, and particularly in the US. There will be a growing preoccupation with The Book Of Revelations, and the notion of The Apocalypse. Religion will become an increasingly profitable enterprise worldwide.

6) Astrology, mysticism and spiritualism, as well as various occult practices, ideas and beliefs will become increasingly accepted, popular and integrated into mainstream G-8 culture. There will be a growing interest in the study of ancient societies, primitive religions, magic and alchemy.

7) A steeply greater percentage of all social and business interaction will be conducted between persons via web-based teleconferencing and communications than during the past five years. The facilitating technology will continue to improve and decrease in actual cost. In-person meetings will cease to be the norm for smaller, entrepreneurial businesses and many international enterprises. By 2012, most educational programs and business meetings will be conducted in cyberspace.

In closing, I will state that the future cannot be predicted so much as reasonably anticipated through a combination of three evaluative elements:

• THE STUDY OF TECHNOLOGY;


• THE STUDY OF HISTORY;


• THE STUDY OF PSYCHOLOGY.

Thank you for being here with me. Good joss!

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. The photograph above was taken at Winter Solstice. There is relevance here if you look for it purposefully.

THE IRONY OF POLLS

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Dear Friends:



We are all too familiar with the notion of the self-fulfilling prophesy -- a fascinating psychological phenomenon (used here in the negative context) whereby we are gripped by a fearful anticipation to such a great extent that we subconsciously help to make it come to fruition through our defensive responses and our instinctual, reflexive behavior.

Extrapolating and philosophizing just a bit (simultaneously!), it might be said that the future will be just as wonderful or just as horrific as we imagine that it will be.

In Bruce Klein's NOVAMENTE blog (there is a link to his blog in the Links section of this one), Bruce cites the top 10 Existential Risks, and asks, indirectly, that we prioritize which ones we would rate as the most important/ worrisome by how much money (based upon a theoretical total budget of $100 million) we would choose to allocate to researching each of them. Simply: the greater the perceived threat, the more money we would be willing to apportion to researching it. It is presented as a poll, and I look forward to seeing the results.

The risks, unranked, but ordered in the construction matrix of the poll, are listed below:

BIOLOGICAL (viruses, etc.)
SPACE THREATS (asteroids, etc.)
ENVIRONMENTAL (global warming, etc.)
EXTRATERRESTRIAL (invasion, etc.)
NANOTECHNOLOGY (gray goo, etc.)
NUCLEAR (holocaust, etc.)
GOVERNMENTS (abusive power, etc.)
SIMULATION SHUT DOWN (assumes we live in one, etc.)
SUPERINTELLIGENT AI (unfriendly, etc.)
OTHER:________________

There are several statistical biases inherent in this type of a poll that emerge from a confusing confluence of two effects -- the actual nature of how the question is framed (e.g., the manner in which you ask a question, or request an answer), and human nature, with its idiosycracies and encultured conformities.

A brief look at some of these interesting bias points:

1. The assumption that all of the risks presented are truly the "Top Ten", or at least the "Top Nine" and a write-in.

2. The inclination by many prospective respondents to inherently view the likelihood or severity of the risks in a declining order, with the most dangerous being first on the list. We all have a tendency to do this, by the way.

3. The implicit tendency to assume that the more money we allocate to studying a problem, the more likely it is to be solved. <"We need your donations to find a cure!">

4. The implicit understanding that any study, in fact, can or will yield a solution of some sort...or even have any effect on the possibility of preventing the occurrence of some disaster, or, at least, mitigating the damage that it wreaks.

5. The natural propensity to mitigate or "hedge" answers, by a kind of diversification. Simply put, if I truly believe (for the sake of illustration) that ENVIRONMENTAL risks (either Global Warming, or having to listen to Al Gore lecture about Global Warming) are the only ones which we can proactively short-circuit via research, I will still not put all of the $100 million into the ENVIRONMENTAL category; I will spread that money around a bit, because I have been indoctrinated with the cultural paradigm that diversification = safety.

I would suggest that you visit Bruce's blog, and participate in the poll. I think that simply designing a poll which yields metrics undistorted by "human nature error" is something worth studying, too.

One final observation about the poll, or about any poll, is that if the category OTHER is given as an alternative, many respondents will allocate some of the $100 million to that category automatically, because they are subconsciously trying to address an ingrained perception that we are always "leaving something out". OTHER becomes the "just in case..." hedge. Not unlike when you jiggle the mailbox chute, or check your doorknob, or look behind you to be certain that your car's lights are off.

I wonder if there is a way to segregate people's actual thoughts from the way in which they express them when confronted with a poll format.

************************************************

Now, to the business of The Global Futurist. We are going to be seeing more of the following:

1. Decisions, both in business and in politics being made by the use of public polls.

2. Polls being used as a propagandist tool to incite concern, fear, or to simply divert attention away from other issues or actions.

3. Polls as the primary horsemen of the self-fulfilling prophesy.

4. Increased reliance on polling and a corresponding decreased reliance on expertise.

5. Published polling results supplanting creative thought and innovation.


Keep watching. On a serious note, it causes me a feeling of impending loss when I think of the possibility that people may ultimately wait for poll results before they formulate opinions of their own. Perhaps we might consider spending some of Bruce's hypothetical $100 million on ways to preserve spontaneity and originality.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

911

OIL - THE NEW CURRENCY OF CHOICE?

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Dear Friends:



As of the date of this post, oil prices are hovering at close to $100 per barrel. All products and services which require transportation as part of the delivery process are being forced to endure higher transportation costs, which are, as is customary, being passed along to the consumer. The world economy is still quite oil dependent. The capital markets, the securities exchanges, and many other indicators of economic stability and strength are showing the strain.

With the Chinese and numerous other oil-producing nations loudly rattling their sabers about the prospect of accepting other currencies (and perhaps even excluding the U.S. Dollar) in exchange for their oil, this bodes poorly for the value of the U.S. Dollar. While it bodes somewhat better in the shorter term for the Euro and some other currencies which compete with the U.S. Dollar, the ultimate effect will be the creation of uncertainty at the capriciousness of the oil-producing and exporting countries, and a net devaluation of all currencies in a rush for currency diversification among oil purchasers eager to hedge their bets.

Anticipate the rise to prominence of several types of products during the course of these next 24 months:

1. A spate of oil hedge contracts and other pre-emptive cost insurances;

2. A spate of currency de-valuation insurance products;

3. An upsurge in the type, number and volume of diversified currency funds and fund products available in the U.S. and elsewhere;

4. An upsurge in the prices of shares in publicly-traded "alternative energy" stocks worldwide;

5. Some token tax and other economic incentives to be promulgated by the US Government to encourage the development of alternatives to fossil fuels;

6. An increasing number of exporters (into the U.S.) unwilling to accept the U.S. Dollar as a preferred form of payment;

7. A number of innovative financial instruments which are not only backed by, but which are denominated in gallons or barrels of oil;

8. A worldwide revisitation of the notion of barter.

9. Escalating hostilities between nations which are net producers of oil and those nations which are net consumers of oil. Veiled threats couched in overtures at compromise. Ironically, this exercise will be noisy but relatively ineffective for several simple reasons, including the facts that: A) Too many unholy alliances exist between multinational companies in both camps; B) Too many net consumers of oil are also heavily invested in oil as an asset and a store of value; C) The wide-scale use of any viable, and useable substitute for fossil fuels is likely quite far off in the future (due to the preceding conflicts, and many other reasons, as is so often the case when so many parties are more deeply invested in the problem than any true solution).

BLACK GOLD? I THINK SO.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. Should I fill my gas tank or pay my mortgage? Perhaps I should simply consolidate, and live in my car.