Predicting the future is a very tricky business. If you paint distant futurescapes, you'll likely be gone by the time your projection is either proven or fails to materialize...If you're ostracized, you won't be around (probably) to have to suffer humiliation -- if your futurescape actually comes into being -- you'll be complimented, albeit posthumously [i.e., you will not be able to collect your prize or cash your check].
Predicting the one- to three-year term is very precarious - you'll be around for your neighbors and colleagues to poke fun at (if you're wrong), and if you're right the time span will not have been enough for you to be truly honored as a visionary.
If you predict short term swings in the capital markets, and you're wrong, you'll have to rationalize to your disgruntled followers or clients. If you're right, you'll probably be investigated for manipulating the markets or for abusing insider information and self-dealing.
But the biggest challenge at the outset of the predictive process has to do with determining which events are truly the beginnings of major cycles, waves or trends that will affect major systems, or if they are merely knee-jerk reactions or media-made 'hot air balloons'.
When I report on something and use a "dated" article or a slightly-aged (usually by one to three months) study to support my forecast or prediction, it is precisely because I believe that a bit of additional examination/observation and a slight passage of time (for reaction) are two critical parts of distinguishing between whether our radar is picking up a signal from a seagull or from a meteorite headed for the Earth.
Anything less is irresponsible. As a sentient Human Being, I must keep my impulses controlled and my reflexes in check to be certain that the fellow coming toward me is pulling out a gun, or a business card.
Now you're better informed as to how the mind of The Global Futurist Douglas E Castle works, and I feel as if I've made some headway toward being understood and appreciated. We're both a bit better off.
Thank you for letting me vent. - DEC
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