Dear Friends:
It is highly likely that tensions between the two principal factions of the Islamic world – the Sunni Muslims and the Shia Muslims -- will heat up within the next year as Iran builds up its nuclear threat potential.
Iran’s Islamic neighbors are far more fearful than they are currently letting the West know. There is the possibility that the war between these two factions (which has been seething for more than 1,000 years) for control of the Islamic world could actually outshadow, by some order of magnitude, the increasing hostilities between the Islamic and non-Islamic peoples of the world.
Iran, which is allied with the Arab nations which harbor the greatest political instability and which breed terrorists, will likely initiate events leading to a tremendous conflict between the two factions. The horrific fighting involved would not only spread like a brush fire throughout the Middle East, but it could leak out into much of Europe, as well.
The Staits of Hormuz, which are dominated and controlled (arguably) by Iran, are the principal artery through which Middle East oil barges must pass in order to supply industrialized nations with the fossil fuels which they require. At the commencement of hostilities, sometime in 2011, expect the Straits to be impassable – I believe that oil prices through the industrialized nations will skyrocket to their highest real level in history. In the US, precautionary demand, opportunism amongst the big oil companies, and speculation in the petromarkets could, in compounded effect, lead to the most rapid and precipitous rise in oil prices fo any country in the world.
Estimates are that prices could shoot up from their current levels to between US$160.00 and US$260.00 per barrel in the United States. Those invested in oil, petroleum processing/ refining and delivery will stand to reap enormous gains, while those invested in oil-dependent industries will be crushed -- as will all fossil-fuel consumers.
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
Douglas Castle
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