Monday, May 6, 2013

10 Predictions: The Death Of Trustworthiness And Trust

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Trust is ultimately the most significant aspect of interpersonal relationships. When avarice, lust and all of the other baser (but sometimes entertaining -- usually in reflective retrospect) needs have been addressed and satisfied, it all comes down to "Can I trust you?"

We value trust most of all. It is one of the reasons that friendships develop, people can collaborate in groups, we can engage in commerce, and there can be civilization. Its existence, and the faith that it is there, is what keeps us from pre-emptively killing all of our neighbors for fear that they'll get to us before we can get to them. Trust is the glue of communities, countries and civilizations; and trustworthiness (the quality of having proved time after time that one can be trusted) is regarded as a precious -- perhaps the most precious -- attribute in a person. It is prized more than wisdom.

People put their faith in institutions (i.e., government, banks, etc.), too. This furthers the structure and evolution of society and of empires and civilizations.

We are witnessing a funeral. Without eulogy. Without fanfare. Without closure or a time to mourn. We are witnessing a simultaneous worldwide decline in the level of trust on the part of virtually every sentient member of our species (to some extent) in our Human Institutions. These mighty institutions are not crumbling. They are thriving, albeit parasitically. They show no remorse because they haven't any. And they haven't any need to, either.

Our institutions, which were built by people and which are comprised of people, have become a bestial life-form unto themselves, feasting on what is left of ravaged economies and crippled households. This does not bode well. Read On... 

The following article summary appears courtesy of The New York Times:
The New York Times | BREAKING NEWS ALERT
EXCLUSIVE Thursday, May 2, 2013 10:01 PM EDT

JPMorgan Warned Over ‘Manipulative Schemes’ in Energy Markets
Government investigators have found that JPMorgan Chase devised “manipulative schemes” that transformed “money-losing power plants into powerful profit centers,” and that one of its most senior executives gave “false and misleading statements” under oath.
The findings appear in a confidential government document, reviewed by The New York Times, that was sent to the bank in March, warning of a potential crackdown by the regulator of the nation’s energy markets.
The possible action comes amid showdowns with other agencies. One of the bank’s chief regulators, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, is weighing new enforcement actions against JPMorgan over the way the bank collected credit card debt and its possible failure to alert authorities to suspicions about Bernard L. Madoff, according to people who were not authorized to discuss the cases publicly.
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The above looks like a legitimate inquiry, and might even have originated as such, but The Global Futurist Blog predicts, with great certainty, that JP Morgan will probably be fined and convicted (corporately) of some watered-down and off-center offense, a few employees (not from the top, but from the fatty middle to upper management midsection, will be thrown under the bus, i.e., "forced" to resign, with pensions, packages and parachutes intact [remember Scooter Libby? -- this will be similar except no individual will actually be convicted of a crime, so no sentence need be commuted] and will carry on quiet but lush lives).

JP will pay the fine out of ill-gotten gains, and be none the worse for it, and the government and the firm will shake hands and remain friends after the show (for the benefit of the public and a few political careers) is over. The item will then rapidly fade from sight, as if it had never happened.

Here is some slightly older news, but with the same theme, pervasive throughout:

The following article excerpt appears courtesy of SmartBrief, and may be very indicative of the increasing case against trusting in powerful and conflicted institutions which have agendas which cause them to serve multiple masters in multiple ways:

Feds accuse S And P, McGraw-Hill of fraud for MBS ratings
The Justice Department has sued credit rating agency Standard & Poor's and parent McGraw-Hill, saying S&P intentionally understated the credit risk of mortgage-backed securities. The civil case accuses McGraw-Hill and S&P of three types of fraud. McGraw-Hill's share price saw its largest percentage decline in 25 years on Monday. Bloomberg (2/5), Reuters (2/4), Los Angeles Times (tiered subscription model) (2/4)

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And one more item that is coming up with increasing frequency in both the mainstream media and in the "fringe media," which latter source is often the first place to look for trends in their infancy [clarification: History has it that a great many of the ideas, subjects, innovations, inventions and things that appear outrageous by the standards of the time, ultimately become the accepted mainstream -- with apologies to Jamie Lee Curtis -- the "New Normal."] which is very disturbing and is happening here in the U.S., but which has already begun its viral spread throughout other industrialized nations in one form or another, reminding me of a well-organized 'Arab Spring':


http://www.douglasecastle.com - Douglas E. Castle - Patriot AND Internationalist - author of The Global Futurist Blog, The Internationalist Page Blog and Member Of The Executive Advisory Board Of The CFI Group Of Companies.



































There is a sea change on a MegaTrend scale taking place quite simultaneously and seemingly spontaneously throughout the industrialized world: The people, be they citizens or subjects have not only lost faith in their respective governments, or perhaps in the notion of 'government' entirely -- they no longer thrust in the motives and integrity of those giant institutions, both governmental and quasi-governmental, upon whom they are dangerously dependent and forced to rely.

Be poised for a major disruption, aided by the accelerant which we refer to as social media - the most precocious and aggressive child spawned of the Internet.

Expect to see this happening in the real-world, in real-time NOW -- in every "industrialized" mature economy and culture (we'll include the U.S., despite its relative youth). And without any signs of abating:

1) Increased arms sales in the civilian economies;

2) Increased government-militia skirmishes;

3) Increased 'nationalization' of private enterprise;

4) Escalating violence, both within nations and between nations;

5) Anti-Internationalist movements;

6) Increasing poverty and underemployment;

7) Thriving of vice-oriented establishments from corner liquor stores to Indian casinos to internet gaming to variations on sexting (text messaging of a sexual nature, with or without video enhancements to drug dealers and traffickers, who will find the best market that has existed since the late 1960s;

8) Thriving of video and virtual reality games, platforms and technologies. Hi-tech escapism;

9) An increasing number of mergers (trans-nationally and internationally) among major media firms;

10)  A sharp decrease in the number of well-educated, career-oriented couples having children, and a more-than-compensatory increase in the propensity of less-educated and poorer couples to produce large families.

As always, thank you for reading me, and for sharing my articles with your contacts, comrades and colleagues through your social media portals and platforms. Really. Thank you.

Douglas E. Castle







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Monday, April 22, 2013

5 Top Megatrends: Human Civilization 2013 - 2033 [Updated]

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There are five top MegaTrends which will alter the structure of Human civilization, the quality of life for all peoples, the methods by which we deal with industrial and healthcare issues, the way in which we communicate [reference: The Sending Signals Blog], and the dominant and dangerous dependencies which will become all the more powerful because of our A) failure to find alternatives, and our B) building virtually every aspect of our socialization and commerce upon them. As said before in The Global Futurist Blog, these are neither all good nor all bad -- they are just megatrends to be prepared for in terms of our basic behavioral responses, as Human Beings, to change:


  • Acceptance (a passive approach, wherein we accept what is given us and do not exert our will to shape the anticipated change, nor do we exert our will to resist the change heading toward us) -- which is the reaction of the greatest percentage of our species;

  • Active Participation -- An approach where we do not leave the future to chance, but instead proactively and aggressively participate in an effort to change the course of the future or to pointedly build the future to our anticipated needs and desires (this is the rarest of responses from the standpoint of behavioral psychology and sociological dynamics;

  • Revolt Or Revolution -- A purely reactive response to predictions, when we are sufficiently threatened by the likelihood of their coming true. This is the second most popular type of anticipatory response to change when it is already happening

Here are the predictions, outlined cursorily, and in no particular order temporally or in terms of priority, greatest potential effect, or any other ordinal criteria:


1) Demographics - Amongst the educated and intellectually superior individuals in the most industrialized nations, marriage will become less popular, reproduction will become less popular, and the family unit and  geographical "neighborhood" concept will all but disappear. Amongst the uneducated and poor, reproduction will continue at its present rate, creating an even greater disparity between social classes, and imposing an impossible strain upon governments seeking to "reallocate" via fiscal policy or monetary policy, resources to provide for all citizens and residents. Governments will become either resource-depleted and abandoned by the most resourceful and promising individuals, or they will try to enslave their peoples with tighter monitoring and controls both fiscally and physically.

2) Privacy Electronic communications of every sort will not be private or protected by any means, and will have been completely compromised by a wide variety of agencies with a wide variety of motives and for an ever-increasing variety of uses. There will be no privacy between Human Beings where electronic, satellite, wave or other physical technologies are employed. Privacy will be very rare, hard to orchestrate and very expensive to arrange.Variations on RFID, GPS and other tracking technologies will be used to geo locate every inventoriable pereson. A small percentage of the population of the world will attempt to circumvent this intrusiveness by living "off the grid" in self-sufficient hideaways.

3) Health, Wellness And Medicine - The quality of life for those very few who will be able to afford it will be quite good, with excellent prospects for healthy, robust longevity of at least 33.33% greater than it is at present. The technologies employed will include: genetic engineering and re-engineering: cloning, nanotechnology, stem cell 'directing', electromagnetism and auto-donorship or regrowth of body parts, systems, organs and tissues. Such issues as skeletal, muscular, ocular and cardiac deterioration (as associated with telomere shortening) will occur much further on (i.e., later) in life, and diseases of the brain and nervous system will all but have been eliminated.

4) Mechanical Creationism - Through the utilization of three-dimesional computer-generated real-world objects, the ideations of visionaries will be birthed into the real world via computer design, programming and production. Whole objects, from individual molecules of a chemical substance for industrial or medical use to cars and buildings will be generated from diagrams -- rather like putting dough into a pasta-making machine. There will be a spate of mechanical "concept to corporeal" designs and increasing unemployment as manual skills will be in ever-diminishing demand, and only highly-skilled technicians, project managers and senior-level management will have any means of entry into a limited, telecommuter-filled marketplace. This bodes well for a better work-life balance, but it also portends further economic class divisions and poverty for those who cannot become entrepreneurs or solopreneurs in various niche markets.

5) Home and office security, as well as data and device access will  have become multivariate biometric, with voice recognition to accompany the various reads and scans, and with passwords or smart cards (chip- or strip-implanted) only as a final line of defense in the security protocol of people, property, processes and data. And then again, data are never truly safe if transmitted by way of electrons, referring back to item #1, listed above.

Thank you as always, for reading me, and for sharing The Global Futurist Blog and The Internationalist Page Blog Articles with your connections and colleagues through your social media dashboards and channels.

Douglas E. Castle

Join me on LinkedIn at http://www.LinkedIn.com/in/douglascastle

Sponsored by:
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Global Edge Technologies Group LLC
ICS - International Connection Services

*And now, a brief contemporary social observation and commentary (as public laughter and open amusement are legal for the time being, and because the Future, with the exception of certain major geological or astronomical events, can still be quite bright if that is how we choose to make it...:

FORGIVE ME READERS, FOR I KNOW NOT WHAT I'M DOING (Too Much Of The Time!)




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Friday, April 12, 2013

Shocking World Forecasts: 2013 - 2063

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As the author of The Global Futurist Blog, I take the more conservative road in predictions.

When I forecast for the near-term, I endeavor to keep my visionary insights turned off to the greatest extent possible, while I choose certain specific variable relating to equally specific trends which I feel will either peak and fall (in the fairly near-term), or which have sufficient gravity (as used here, I am speaking of combination of such factors as: their importance to the economy; widespread media coverage; ongoing research grant allocations and investment; the amplitude of the change they would create; the power of the established industries or technologies which they would have to -- David and Goliath style -- disrupt and displace; and the views of other futurists and prognosticators looking at the same variables in the shorter-term) to be carried forward and create a serious rippling effect,  radical sociological paradigm shift or revolutionary technological change.

I've only chosen a few items to focus on, and they are in areas where: the trending is swelling in amplitude; there are limits in accessibility to depletable resources (a finite quantity parameter); there are artificially subsidized or sustained institutions, industries or practices;
there are untenable compromises which foster instability; there are urgent changes required for society's and Humanity's survival; or, where there are institutions which are fatalistic by their nature, and have a "loot and pillage all that we can RIGHT NOW" mentality while the New Rome (or Babylon) burns, or while the Titanic slips into the freezing depths of an unforgiving dispassionate ocean.

I'll limit my global forecasts for the 50-year time frame to a simple outline form without going into the reasoning behind them in great detail:

1) The world's supply of potable water will be scarce, and Israeli desalinization technology will be used, subject to license, by many nations. There will be mass starvation and famine in Africa, parts of the Middle East, island republics and the Amazon;

2) Climate change, unpredictable and increasingly volatile, will create great damage to world infrastructure, significant alterations to continental positions, the decimation of some island civilizations and will make travel increasingly difficult;

3) There will be increased clashes between deprived and infuriated citizens (or servants or subjects) and the governments which have bankrupted them and helped to enslave them;

4) Asia will lose its economic advantage, and that advantage will move to parts of industrialized Europe, with some benefit to the United States.

5) The Caucasian and poorly educated minority of the U.S. citizenry will become increasingly armed and hostile toward the government, and violent (but media-suppressed)skirmishes will ensue; the demography of the U.S. will shift in favor of Latinos and Asians, and virtually all employment with the exception of the entrepreneurial sector, will be by governments or their agencies;

6) There will be bloody war in the Middle East and parts of Africa between Shiite Muslims and Sunni Muslims;

7) Fossil fuels will decrease in use and utility as their availability is compromised by surface transport issues;

8) The United States will be militarily involved in multiple wars throughout the world;

9) Complete invisibility cloaking will be in use by covert and acknowledged government agencies domestically and internationally.

10) Plasma, laser and other wave-based or radiation-based weapons will be in ordinary use.

11) Mexico will become a rogue state, run by a coalition of corrupt government officials and the drug lords. Other countries will likely follow suit;

12) There will have been a shift toward atomic energy;

13) There will have been a shift from internet to satellite communications;

14) Entire limbs and organs will be grown utilizing stem cells combined with electromagnetic technology and genetic engineering, and for the few who can afford it, the Human lifespan will have been increased to in excess of 130 years. Females will outlive males. The average lifespan due to environmental and socio-economic factors will decrease significantly from where it is today;

15) Those persons who can get work will be telecommuting from their secured residences, and most recreation will not take place outside secured zones in enclosed areas;

16) A great deal of recreational time will be spent in virtual reality, as an escape into fantasy from the harsh realities of future life;

17) Society will not have attained Kurzweil's point of Singularity, but substantially all menial, physical or clerical jobs will be undertaken by robots. Machines will build machines, but none will exhibit genuine Artificial Intelligence;

18) There will be movements amongst various governments to eliminate paper currency to facilitate better tracking of money, materiel and personnel, as well as to simplify the tax collection process. There will be riots in otherwise civilized countries over this;

19) Most device and access security will be by a combination of biometrics instead of encryption;

20) Humanity will be de-socialized to the extent that we will be living in a sort of high-technology Medieval revival, with corporate-government cartels being the lairds of their respective territories, and individuals will serve them, putting country and citizenship affiliations second;

21) Most of the world's wealth will be controlled by less than 1% of the total population -- the other 99% will be struggling for survival in a polluted, unsafe, violent world -- a world overcome by the madness that comes of hyper-vigilance and constant fear;

22) Most educated couples will choose not to have children, while the uneducated will continue to create families which they cannot responsibly support;

23) Pollution in Asia and in certain parts of Latin America will make the air quality so poor that people will not be able to spend any time outdoors, except with air filtration gear;

24) Most of the world's peoples will be living in abject poverty, and will literally be fighting for their their lives;

25) The tremendous resurgence which we are witnessing today amongst the Doomsday Preppers, the End-Times Groups and the militant anti-government groups is ultimately a foreshadowing of items 1 through 24, above. As someone once told me, "Just 'cause you's paranoid don't mean that they ain't out to get you." In these extreme cases, these groups are partially prophetic and partially a disparate self-fulfilling prophesy. There will be incidents involving drones killing innocents, planned assassinations, chemical and biological tests gone wrong and some tragedies involving 'dirty nukes'.  Rhetorically-justified lawlessness will be the privilege of  those who can either choose to be or  pay to be exempt from the law.

---------------

I also believe that there will be the promising beginnings of colonization of other planets or their moons by the next wave of Human pioneers, and they will be Humankind's greatest hope for the future. These colonists will have wonderful, powerful technologies to aid them in their re-creation of a society, but (and this is conjecture -- not forecast), hopefully these few will have sociologically, psychologically and spiritually advanced to the point that they do not want to invest in a zero-sum game.

Instead, I hope that these few will be collaborative, and see the very notion of civilization as a goal to be striven for above all else except for the right to be different from others, but yet fully accepting of them.

Thank you, as always for reading me, and for sharing my articles with your colleagues and connections over the interconnectedness of social media.

Douglas E. Castle

Sponsored By:
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Global Edge Technologies Group LLC
ICS - International Connection Services





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