Dear Mr. Castle, Global Futurist: A momentous event just occurred this afternoon:
For the first time in many years, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve went before Congress, set aside his rose-colored glasses, dispensed with most of his sugar-coated platitudes and made some hard-hitting statements about the U.S. economy.
Bernanke on jobs:
"This is the worst labor market since the Great Depression." Bernanke on housing:
"The market remains weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and construction."
Bernanke on fears about the future:
"Most ... viewed uncertainty about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the majority saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside." Bernanke on tight credit for small businesses:
"Bank loans outstanding have continued to contract. Small businesses, which depend importantly on bank credit, have been particularly hard hit." And never forget: All this is coming from a man whose job invariably makes him extremely reluctant to admit to negative trends in any sector at any time — if Bernanke is saying things are bad, you can bet your bottom dollar they're actually far worse.
Our recommendation:
- Act on our warnings to greatly reduce your exposure to the stock market, especially in the sectors we've been pinpointing as vulnerable to a double-dip recession: Housing and construction, retail, manufacturing, banking and more.
- Keep most of your money safely tucked away in short-term Treasury bills or equivalent. The return on your money (no matter how low) is not nearly as big of an issue as the return OF your money.
- To hedge against any threat to the purchasing power of your dollars, maintain a core position in gold — through bullion, a gold ETF or both.
- Above all, stay safe!
Good luck and God bless!
|
------------------
AND NOW, MY PREDICTIONS CONCERNING WHAT THIS ACTUALLY MEANS FOR THE UNITED STATES, AND GLOBALLY (AT A SLIGHT LAG). DOUGLAS CASTLE PROGNOSTICATES:
1. Citizens are buying up weapons and ammunition for both home and street protection in anticipation of rampant crime -- some of them (mostly the militia crowd) are stockpiling military ordnance to defend themselves against a giant government that is growing in its fiscal appetite and its vampirical bloodfest off of the public at a neoplastic rate, unchecked, unstoppable and infinitely powerful.
2. Unemployment (non-government unemployment) will continue to rise as the availablity of credit for smaller business and for consumers shrinks.
3. Occasional upticks in consumer spending will be the sad result of a combination of factors, including:
- Interest rates on bank instruments are too low relative to the real rate of inflation -- there is less incentive to save and more to consume;
- Pension plans and capital markets (principally equities and index-based funds) are either a) too volatile for a person of average cardiac capacity to monitor and tolerate or b) are steadily eroding legitimately-earned principal;
- Consumers buy durable goods on interest-free layaway plans from large stores that are eventually going to go out of business but need to book current sales;
- An increasing portion of spending is going toward gambling-related activities, substance abuse (escapism), and frivolous consumption ["since the world is going to end tomorrow, I might as well buy a pepperoni pizza"];
- The release of new media/communications gadgetry.
None of this is positive, none of it is economically supportive, and all of it reeks of fatalism.
4. Cooperative consumer movements and anti-government sentiment will be on the rise as an alternative to and a protest against irresponsible and immensely expensive government doles and metastically-growing, amoral monopolistic conglomerates;
5. The notion of community will begin to return as more public services are weakened or discontinued;
6. The IRS will be all the more vigilant in its efforts to audit, assess and repossess in order to assist the government in narrowing and ever-increasing national debt;
7. The underground (cash economy) will continue to flourish, and become regarded by the general public as more respectable than ever in history;
8. The gap between what banks pay for deposits (very, very little) and what banks will charge for the few loans they make (loaded with costs, fees, points and hidden charges) will continue to widen;
9. The new Financial Reforms will be of no consequence in regulating against massive financial institutional failures, but will create more government jobs and some more work for some of the larger, better-established multipartner law firms;
10. Taxes, fines tolls, tarrifs, surcharges, fees and "mandatory contributions" will increase steadily and lethally during the next two years to cover the costs of minimalist public services and to narrow the federal and state budget deficits;
11. Not-For-Profits will have a very difficult time getting donations -- many will go out of business;
12. Commercial real estate values will continue to decline in a downward "sawtooth" wave;
13. There will be increasing friction between federal and state governments on issues of funds allocation, jurisdiction, constitutionality, regulatory issues, law enforcement and conflicts between laws -- some of these conflicts will result in massive civil unrest, and a generalized sentiment or peception of seeing the federal government as having interests increasingly detrimental to those of the individual states. Some serious showdowns and confrontations will occur;
14. The demographics in the US will shift in favor of peoples of color with limited professional technical skills and education, while educated professional caucausians and established and successful people of color will seek to become expatriates;
15. US involvement in military and nation-building projects throughout the world will continue, with a handful of "contractors" profiting tremendously and with their profits remaining unrepatriated and uninvested in the US markets;
16. All forms of offshore or international investment, trusts and entities will be increasingly scrutinized and regulated against as being "unpatriotic."
17. I believe that a US economic rebound (and never a restoration to its former glory or leadership role) is possible through a very slow process (fueled by American entrepreneurship and foreign investment in the US) which may commence in the second half of 2013 and take in excess of seven years.
18. To add an additional nugget to the apex of a growing governmental cow pie, military efforts, expenditure and loss of life in Afghanistan will increase, as will the likelihood of more aggressive confrontation with Iran. The US presence in the "newly-rebuilt" Iraq will actually increase, but the increase will be in the form of lucrative (to a select few) mercenary and rebuilding engagements.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
Douglas Castle Join my TNNWC Group, LLC collaborative business community (GICBC) at no cost by clicking on http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC.
NOTE: This Article was originally published in The Global Futurist blog at http://TheGlobalFuturist.blogspot.com
KEY WORDS, TAGS AND TERMS: Bernanke, causes of economic recession, federal reserve system, recession and depression, the capital markets, Douglas Castle, TNNWC, The Omnigadget, The National Networker.
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The Misguided Notion of "TRENDING NOW" - Douglas Castle
Dear Fellow Futurists and Friends:
The latest fad to stick itself between the eyes of every informationally overburdened and sensorially bombarded "gotta know everything now...gotta be up-to-the-minute...news monkey and aspiring corporate climber (despite the notable absence of ladders, steps, and destinations) is the "Trending Now" dynamic ticker that you can see on the homepages or opening pages of all of the major computer hosting and service providers (Google, Yahoo!, Bing, AOL, MSN and a growing number of others).
This feature, which is really a dynamically updated ranking of the top 10, 20 or 30 topics which are most frequently searched by the public at any given moment, is supposed to be extremely meaningful. If they were financial data, they might be useful, but all we can glean from these ticker displays are the fads of the moment. Ironically, they are not even trends -- they are ranked search frequencies as of the moment of measurement. The fact that so many of them change so rapidly attests to their volatility (perhaps a function of some combination of intensity of news story saturation and the fickle and limited nature of many people's attention spans.
Now if you were to isolate a particular search topic and follow its relative positioning daily over a length of time; or, if you were to codo the same thing with two different brands, or ideologies or atmospheric gases...well then, you would be citing a trend. A trend is a measurement of change or tendency in a particular variable over a period of time. The difference between a "Trending Now" display and a "Trend" per se is analogous to the difference between a point and a line. A point can (possibly) be observed, but its direction is unknown. It takes several points to plot a trend line, or to plot two or more competitive trend lines in a comparative or correlative analysis of brands or products. And these points are gathered over time.
If you'd like to see a trend instead of a daily ranking (this is safe experiement which you can do at home without setting the house on fire or putting your kid brother's eye out), just use the same "Trending Now" report, choose a "hot" topic (i.e., Lady Gaga) and examine it daily to see which position it occupies daily. Plot a chart based upon rank. Then, as ranking rises or falls, you can site a trend, or direction. You may even plot a graph with percentage changes and other exciting (stifled yawn) metrics! See how easy this Futurism thing can be?
In Futurism, we do not seek to just 'get the point' -- we seek to find the best-fitting line, and extend it using a combination of skills.
NOTE: By the way, you'll likely notice that the fastest risers tend to plummet the most precipitously, while the slower climbers have a tendency to occupy a higher ranking position (on average) for longer.
Let's just remember that a momentary ranking is not indicative of a trend.
Class dismissed!
Faithfully, and wishing you a wonderfully vertical success path, I am,
Douglas Castle
Douglas Castle
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Ben Bernanke Speaks In Somber Tones - Douglas Castle Predicts The Effects.
Ben Bernanke Sets A Somber Tone for the U.S. Economic "Recovery." -- Perhaps this is a pre-emptive political strike against allegations of fraud... hmmm.....
Dear Colleagues and Friends:
I am not fond of Ben Bernanke, nor of his knee-jerk, symptomatic relief reactions, duplicity and delay policies. In fact, when a prestigious New York magazine named this bailout baron "Man of the Year," for keeping the US out of a "dangerous recession," I had mentioned to a handful of friends (that's about as many as I have) that the award was rather like having an arsonist set fire to your house, watching it burn for awhile, and then running in to rescue one of your five children... and winning a medal for courage. Sadly, many have believed in Bernanke's intrusive policies, taxpayer-crushing bailouts, backroom merger deals to merely forestall the inevitable, his philosophy of borrowing our way out of debt (sounds screwy, no?) and his notably uncharismatic "positive yet cautious" tone. If he's not delusional, he is merely a rather cold-hearted fibber trying to buy the current US economy and the current administration time to somehow "come around" based upon miracles and propaganda.
It's failed.
Banks aren't lending to consumers and small businesses. Joblessness (the true measure of unemployment) continues to climb. Productivity is also decreasing, great minds are leaving the country (as are many jobs), and businesses are seeking other home domiciles in order to 1), get cheaper labor -- the kind where people work for a wage instead of waiting for a government check, and to 2), escape before taxes in the US become impossibly burdensome and back-breaking in order to pay for the government's irresponsible policymaking.
Compounding the problem, is the influence that the US still exerts over the World economy -- It's what I like to refer to as the "Weapons Of Mass Destruction hoakum, trap 'em and choke 'em" routine.
The following news, excerpted from a newsletter issued by David Weiss speaks about about Bernanke's latest, most realistic declaration of the unpleasant truth, as the US slides (as do all major sovereigns) into a double dip recession that is actually a profound, fundamental depression:
Breaking news:
Bernanke slams U.S. economy! What to do ...
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
Dear Mr. Castle, Global Futurist: A momentous event just occurred this afternoon:
For the first time in many years, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve went before Congress, set aside his rose-colored glasses, dispensed with most of his sugar-coated platitudes and made some hard-hitting statements about the U.S. economy.
Bernanke on jobs:
"This is the worst labor market since the Great Depression." Bernanke on housing:
"The market remains weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and construction."
Bernanke on fears about the future:
"Most ... viewed uncertainty about the outlook for growth and unemployment as greater than normal, and the majority saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside." Bernanke on tight credit for small businesses:
"Bank loans outstanding have continued to contract. Small businesses, which depend importantly on bank credit, have been particularly hard hit." And never forget: All this is coming from a man whose job invariably makes him extremely reluctant to admit to negative trends in any sector at any time — if Bernanke is saying things are bad, you can bet your bottom dollar they're actually far worse.
Our recommendation:
- Act on our warnings to greatly reduce your exposure to the stock market, especially in the sectors we've been pinpointing as vulnerable to a double-dip recession: Housing and construction, retail, manufacturing, banking and more.
- Keep most of your money safely tucked away in short-term Treasury bills or equivalent. The return on your money (no matter how low) is not nearly as big of an issue as the return OF your money.
- To hedge against any threat to the purchasing power of your dollars, maintain a core position in gold — through bullion, a gold ETF or both.
- Above all, stay safe!
Good luck and God bless!
|
------------------
AND NOW, MY PREDICTIONS CONCERNING WHAT THIS ACTUALLY MEANS FOR THE UNITED STATES, AND GLOBALLY (AT A SLIGHT LAG). DOUGLAS CASTLE PROGNOSTICATES:
1. Citizens are buying up weapons and ammunition for both home and street protection in anticipation of rampant crime -- some of them (mostly the militia crowd) are stockpiling military ordnance to defend themselves against a giant government that is growing in its fiscal appetite and its vampirical bloodfest off of the public at a neoplastic rate, unchecked, unstoppable and infinitely powerful.
2. Unemployment (non-government unemployment) will continue to rise as the availablity of credit for smaller business and for consumers shrinks.
3. Occasional upticks in consumer spending will be the sad result of a combination of factors, including:
- Interest rates on bank instruments are too low relative to the real rate of inflation -- there is less incentive to save and more to consume;
- Pension plans and capital markets (principally equities and index-based funds) are either a) too volatile for a person of average cardiac capacity to monitor and tolerate or b) are steadily eroding legitimately-earned principal;
- Consumers buy durable goods on interest-free layaway plans from large stores that are eventually going to go out of business but need to book current sales;
- An increasing portion of spending is going toward gambling-related activities, substance abuse (escapism), and frivolous consumption ["since the world is going to end tomorrow, I might as well buy a pepperoni pizza"];
- The release of new media/communications gadgetry.
None of this is positive, none of it is economically supportive, and all of it reeks of fatalism.
4. Cooperative consumer movements and anti-government sentiment will be on the rise as an alternative to and a protest against irresponsible and immensely expensive government doles and metastically-growing, amoral monopolistic conglomerates;
5. The notion of community will begin to return as more public services are weakened or discontinued;
6. The IRS will be all the more vigilant in its efforts to audit, assess and repossess in order to assist the government in narrowing and ever-increasing national debt;
7. The underground (cash economy) will continue to flourish, and become regarded by the general public as more respectable than ever in history;
8. The gap between what banks pay for deposits (very, very little) and what banks will charge for the few loans they make (loaded with costs, fees, points and hidden charges) will continue to widen;
9. The new Financial Reforms will be of no consequence in regulating against massive financial institutional failures, but will create more government jobs and some more work for some of the larger, better-established multipartner law firms;
10. Taxes, fines tolls, tarrifs, surcharges, fees and "mandatory contributions" will increase steadily and lethally during the next two years to cover the costs of minimalist public services and to narrow the federal and state budget deficits;
11. Not-For-Profits will have a very difficult time getting donations -- many will go out of business;
12. Commercial real estate values will continue to decline in a downward "sawtooth" wave;
13. There will be increasing friction between federal and state governments on issues of funds allocation, jurisdiction, constitutionality, regulatory issues, law enforcement and conflicts between laws -- some of these conflicts will result in massive civil unrest, and a generalized sentiment or peception of seeing the federal government as having interests increasingly detrimental to those of the individual states. Some serious showdowns and confrontations will occur;
14. The demographics in the US will shift in favor of peoples of color with limited professional technical skills and education, while educated professional caucausians and established and successful people of color will seek to become expatriates;
15. US involvement in military and nation-building projects throughout the world will continue, with a handful of "contractors" profiting tremendously and with their profits remaining unrepatriated and uninvested in the US markets;
16. All forms of offshore or international investment, trusts and entities will be increasingly scrutinized and regulated against as being "unpatriotic."
17. I believe that a US economic rebound (and never a restoration to its former glory or leadership role) is possible through a very slow process (fueled by American entrepreneurship and foreign investment in the US) which may commence in the second half of 2013 and take in excess of seven years.
18. To add an additional nugget to the apex of a growing governmental cow pie, military efforts, expenditure and loss of life in Afghanistan will increase, as will the likelihood of more aggressive confrontation with Iran. The US presence in the "newly-rebuilt" Iraq will actually increase, but the increase will be in the form of lucrative (to a select few) mercenary and rebuilding engagements.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
Douglas Castle Join my TNNWC Group, LLC collaborative business community (GICBC) at no cost by clicking on http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC.
NOTE: This Article was originally published in The Global Futurist blog at http://TheGlobalFuturist.blogspot.com
KEY WORDS, TAGS AND TERMS: Bernanke, causes of economic recession, federal reserve system, recession and depression, the capital markets, Douglas Castle, TNNWC, The Omnigadget, The National Networker.
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A Quick Survey For Entrepreneurs and Emerging Enterprises TNNWC Group, LLC needs your input...the input of innovators, leaders, initiators and prominent, active members of the entrepreneurial and emerging enterprise social and business communitees!
July 13th, 2010: A Brand New Quick Survey, open to all...
TNNWC Quick Survey 7: Rank The Reasons Why New Or Young Businesses Fail.
Click to take this terrific, brief, but important survey:
http://www.surveymonkey.com/TNNWC7
***If you’d like, become a Member of TNNWC for free at http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC.
The National Networker Companies™ “Empowering Emerging Enterprises” Membership in TNNWC’s Global Interactive Cooperative Business Community is free of charge and entitles you to receive both The National Networker Newsletter and The BLUE TUESDAY Report, as well as access to our unparalleled Suite of Business Services. Visit our website at http://www.TheNationalNetworker.com
Douglas Castle
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The Ultimate Power Grab.
Dear Colleagues, Members and Friends:
It is one thing to be victimized by a cleverly-disguised, subtle takeover of control...a plan or scheme of great engineering, elaborate progressive steps, and a formidable attempt at misdirection, distraction or obfuscation. It is much sadder to watch sovereign nations, deeply in debt due to years of systemic inefficiency, thievery and tremendous waste grope at the shrinking wallets of their citizens, states and businesses to pick up the tab so that they may continue their policy of empowering and enriching themselves.
Throughout the community of industrialized nations, governments are creating new agencies to "solve the problems" created by the old ones; they are trying to nationalize, federalize and control smaller geograpical subunits (already starved), businesses (except those who can afford it) and individuals to grab whatever funds they can to keep themselves afloat at the expense of their victimized constituents.
These big sovereigns are not serving or solving -- they are stealing in able to sustain themselves at the expense of the very citizenries which entrusted and empowered them. They only know how to take -- and they offer nothing in return except for specious rhetoric, steaming piles of teleprompted fertilizer about the "national security," "terrorist threats," and "protecting the people whom they are charged to 'serve'.
The one-time "slaves" have become the new masters. The one-time hosts have become the new parasites, metastasizing at an alarming rate, and with an instatiable appetite for money. They will either disregard laws or create new laws (and enforcement protocols) to get it. This effect is multiplied by the increased intertwining relationships and blurred lines between the highest levels of government and those corporate giants and financial institutions which are simply, to quote Man Of The Year Ben Bernanke, "Too Big to Fail."
Entrepreneurs and emerging enterprises which have not received the "Too Big To Fail" stamp of immortality are being starved of resources and being audited, harrassed and choked out of business...discouraged, burdened, scrutinzed andf beaten into submission only to increase the market share of the insatiable goliaths who are sleeping with their unholy respective governments.
Without united entrepreneurial and activistic intervention the futurescape will be a bleak sci-fi scenario where a few giant olympians, in fortified quarters and armed to the pointed teeth, will be looking over a poverty-infested sea of the disenfranchised and doomed. I give this particular scenario five to eight years to become reality, unless there is an uprising which is serious enough to stop the trajectory of this voracious , amoral juggernaut which we have let grow, unpruned and untamed.
Then again, I should just bring you, gentle readers, up to date on the reality of what is occurring in the industrialized nations as I write this [this may well put a bit of a shiver up your spine]:
1. Federal governments are seizing legislative, regulatory and enforcement power from states and provinces;
2. As governments become increasingly concerned about the violence that often follows hunger and betrayal, they are tightening up on the law-abiding citizens' right to keep and bear arms. Of course, gun stores are now beseiged by old and new clients trying to get guns and ammunition in order to protect home, property and family. Criminals, both independent and government-sanctioned, are continuing to get unlimited access to weaponry, detection and defense sytems that would make any drug lord jealous -- are they are getting them through the traditional channels;
3. BP (British Petroleum) has created, and continues to sponsor, the greatest environmental and ecological catastrophe in the history of all of Humanity. They have been chastened by some politicians. But they are still the principal supplier of fuel to the militaries of several world powers. Look for very expensive and scarce seafood, decimated tourism, tarball-tossing competitions, a wordwide potable water shortage, and, as a bonus, along with the incredible inflation in prices of all basic and monopoly-run services and essential supplies within the next two fiscal quarters, look for oil to be back at in excess of $150 per barrel, with gasoline (in the US) priced at in excess of $5.00 per gallon at the pump. Think of all of those neanderthals who took their "cash for clunkers" and bought Humvees...Humvee housing might become a real possibility in certain trailer parks. Haitian-style tent cities might begin cropping up in parts of the Urban US.
4. Expect interest rates (the ones actually charged) by banks to increase dramatically, credit guidelines to become impossibly stringent, and conventional bank lending to all but dry up. Credit card abuses will continue. There will be an increasing number of homes available for sale throughout the civilized world due to a combination of economic depression and abandonment, but this supply will not be absorbed by the market regardless of the seeming "bargain potential" due to the fact that mortages will be very difficult to obtain. Foreign investors, prinicipally Asian, will be snapping up a great deal of real estate and other properties in the United States. At a 30% incremental savings rate, these people have savings and cash, while (whilst) the US citizens are borrowing as best they can to simply cover current living expenses.
5. Expect many large private companies and medium-sized publicly-traded companies, trusts and other entity forms in all of the industrialized nations to become increasingly popular targets of Asian acquirors who tend to be strategic, controlling buyers, and not merely passive investors.
Economies which are held together by credit, impulsive consumption and propaganda often meet this type of fate. Watch, over the next few years (2010 - 2013) as companies, jobs, talent, minds, fortunes and the tax base flee the G-8 Nations and head to other established and emerging nations in a flight to safety and quality. After this expatriation phase, and some panicked border closings and limitations on travel, things should really heat up.
As they say in China (translated to English here), "May you live in interesting times."
I promise that you will.
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
Douglas Castle
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