Wednesday, December 30, 2009

The Next 7 Years: 2010 - 2017

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The Next 7 Years: 2010 - 2017

Dear Readers:

I would like to take this opportunity to wish each and all of you a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year -- a year filled with epiphanies, satori moments, recovering investments, renewed faith and energy, and love. That was the friendly component of this bulletin, and I am glad to offer it. What follows is about trends to watch during these next seven years. At the very end, you'll find an embedded video that has absolutely no relevence whatsoever to the subject matter of this brief article.

The years 2010 - 2017 will be pivotal, and will be marked by the tempest and challenge of change and an altered perception of reality. Unlike Nostradamus, I will not present you with mysterious quatrains. I do not possess the gift of clairvoyance -- but I do have the ability, as you all do, to connect the dots and to draw a line. This is more extrapolation than 'second sight'. But then, I have come to believe that what we term "supernatural" is more often than not merely the temporarily unexplainable.

Succinctly:

1. The "invisible" longer-term health hazards associated with wireless communications (electromagnetic radiation, radio waves, microwaves), as well as those associated with proximity to electronic cabling and utility wiring will be revealed to the public, and a number of opportunistic class action lawsuits (in the true John Grisham fashion) will emerge from the ether faster than you can say 'mesothelioma' or 'Konigsberg and O'Shaunessy, attorneys fighting for your rights'. Companies involved in the development and sale of radiation shielding for homes and workplaces will begin to thrive, and the telecomm industry lobby will not be able to keep the legislature from enacting all manner of safety laws. You can anticipate that the EPA and other government agencies will increase in their influence and prominence;

2. Cloud computing will begin to displace sales of many types of "utility software" and hardware. Firms like Microsoft will be beseiged and have their sales volume eroded by fragmented entrepreneurial competition from cloud computing service providers and innovators. It may well be time to Google "Cloud Computing";



3. There will be an increase in both the number and types of electronic devices being surgically implanted (like the pacemaker, for example) in the Human population to assist the heart and other organs with their functioning;

4. Obesity will continue to affect an increasing percentage of the population, but there will be tremendous resistance to addressing the issue as a full-blown (no pun intended) pandemic because of the widely and deeply-held perception that all obesity is associated with gluttony, laziness and other "controllable" character flaws. It will continue to be in the headlines, but it won't warrant the wearing of wristbands and ribbons like the ones associated with breast cancer and some of the other "real" and better-established diseases which are better entrenched in the media;

5. China will be the most economically and politically influential sovereign power in the world;

6. The severity and fatality of many diseases and chronic conditions currently treated with medication or transplantation will be dramatically reduced with genetic engineering, stem cell-based organ regeneration, and some rudimentary applications of nanotechnology. A number of physiologically-caused emotional illness will be treated or become treatable in this manner as well, and the companies which manufacture anti-depressant drugs (especially SSRIs and SNRIs) will be hurt by declining sales of these staples and by the inevitable rash of attorney-driven class-action lawsuits which will spread like a psoriatic inflammation;

7. Gold, in both its physical form, and in the form of claims secured, backed or collateralized by the metal will become an increasingly large percentage of investment portfolios and as a store of value due to increased fears about the volatility and intrinsic value of other investments as the consumer world shakily emerges from the recession sometime in 2012, and begins to reinvigorate itself in a classic self-fulfilling prophesy...except there will not be as much rejoicing as there will be caution and a few uears of attempted moderation;

8. Both large corporate and governmental excesses will continue, unchecked and essentially unchanged. The public's memory is short, and the immediate monetary gratification of the porkers in the executive suites and boardrooms will far overshadow any pangs of conscience or concerns about the longer-term effects of these unproductive expenditures at the expense of stakeholders and the tax-paying public;

9. The "Green Movement" will continue to gain momentum, legislative and public support, financial backing, media coverage and lobbying strength;

10. There will be a worldwide resurgence of interest in the occult, astrologically-based predictive systems, psychic phenomena and in dimensions theorized, but as yet, unproven;

11. There will be an increasing acceptance of the notion of Internationalism and transnational entities (mostly conglomerates and diverse combinations) will increase in size and number.

12. The demography of the industrialized nations (especially that of the United States) will change radically as more immigration into these countries takes place to absorb the capacity and demand left unaddressed by the many skilled workers, businesspeople and professionals who will be leaving these floundering giants to find employment in Asia and South America.

13. People throughout the English-speaking world will still be superstitious about the number thirteen (13). I am not certain how it is spelled, but I believe that this particular superstition-based fear is occasionally referred to as tristadecaphobia. There are times when I wish I hadn't poisoned my editor (kidding).

Faithfully,



As an added bonus, I have embedded a YouTube Video Player with a performance of Sofrito (O Mi Shango) by Mongo Santamaria. If the video does not appear, just click this link to receive the same thrill. He is one of the understated ambassadors of Afro-Cuban (Latin Jazz) music from Havana to the United States. Listen and become entranced:





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Friday, December 18, 2009

Poor Bargains and Empty Threats - Bread and Circuses for the Masses

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Poor Bargains and Empty Threats - Bread and Circuses for the Masses.

Dear Readers, Internationalists and Global Futurists:

A Quick Look at Finances and Economics During The Next Two Years: Expect continued and increasingly precipitous failures in the banking and insurance sectors, as governments throughout the world put on a spectacular entertainment for the masses in each of their respective countries. The international recession will deepen during 2010 and 2011. Unemployment and the lack of available credit (for either businesses of consumers) will make any real recovery all but impossible. We can also look forward to increased movement toward a united international agency or cooperative agreement among many if not all of the world's industrialized organizations. This is a push toward Globalism on one front, but it is not a genuine move toward international cooperation and increased trade opportunities: it will just mean an increase in the free exchange of information between all banks about all customers, an end to the few banking privacy laws remaining, an expanded role both domestically and internationally for regulators and legislators.  It will be of no direct benefit to the individuals or to entrepreneurial enterprises, although it will increase the ratio of government employees to employed persons in total throughout the world.

A Quick Comment: Remember the notion of "privatization?" Look forward to at least to years of increasing "Governmentalization" throughout the industrialized nations.

Behavioral Psychology at Play: When regulators begin counting on their private sector charges to advise them on policy matters, you ultimately blur the lines between government and big business, and wind up with a large, cumbersome, wasteful, unethical, multiheaded beast  (not unlike King Kong or Mothra) dominating world events and creating a clearer distinction than ever before between what I'll call the Party Elite and the enslaved masses. Small businesses, unless they are cyber-based or in the most remote outposts of civilization will be taken out of the game. The greatest percentage of employable people will be working for and paid by governments, governmental agencies and international organizations, some of which will be the outgrowths of treaties among nations, and some of which will be very well-financed (and deeply-conflicted) NGOs.

Internationalism: Yes. I favor Internationalism, enlightened capitalism and the GICBC entity concept. But this is not the way I wanted to see it come about.

Case In Point: Bread and Circuses for the Masses!

The dance between big bankers and big government contributes to Global Warming. At meetings between high-ranking government officials and the big banks which helped to precipitate and exacerbate the world economic recession (and continue to do so), the end-result is the unprecedented production of hot air. Poor bargains, nebulous directives, unenforceable appeals to "sensibility and responsibility" are invariable (and predictably) yielding to greed and an even more precarious resurrection of the old-school power elite status quo. The dynamics of the talks between government leaders and bank leaders have the same underlying psychodynamics as those of government leaders and big oil. The big difference is that the oil companies have a capitalistically-constructed monopoly, while the bankers were given a carte blanche franchise by their respective governments years ago to build their own monopolies.

When pressured government leaders have serious high-level meetings with major monopolists, they are merely putting on a show for the worried and troubled masses. Unemployed, bankrupt and frightened citizens watch these "shows" with hopes of change that will somehow "trickle down" and help save them...but in cold reality, they are just being kept busy with bread and circuses. They are merely voting, taxpaying drones. The masses are like cattle in the eyes of all but the smallest, most enlightened government and business leaders.

In this most recent recession episode, certain parties benefitted tremendously, while others lost horrendously. Historically, in the wake of every one of these crises, the world's wealth becomes concentrated amongst a decresing percentage of the population, while the rest of the population works even harder and becomes poorer. It is a game of slaves and masters.

The fact is that big businesses and big goverments are both on the same side -- the side of the ruling class. They are both interested in ammassing power, and neither has any interest in serving the public, except perhaps on a platter. Propaganda notwithstanding, the lines are already drawn, and will not be changed by any empty, toothless rhetoric between governments and the big businesses (especially big banks) to whom they are actually married. The people are invariably called upon to make real sacrifices and to pay the price. By the sufference of the people, big organizations grow fatter and more indifferent to the very real needs of the populace. These institutions no longer relate to the plight of the "common person." There is neither a positive nor negative incentive for them to do so.



December 15, 2009

Obama Presses Biggest Banks to Lend More

WASHINGTON — President Obama pressured the heads of the nation’s biggest banks on Monday to take “extraordinary” steps to revive lending for small businesses and homeowners, prompting assurances from some financial institutions that they would do more even as they continued to shed their supplicant status in Washington.

Meeting with top executives from 12 financial institutions, Mr. Obama sent a clear message that the industry had a responsibility to help nurse the economy back to health and do more to create jobs in return for the huge federal bailout last year that kept Wall Street and the banking system afloat.
But Mr. Obama also confronted the limits of his power to jawbone the industry as banking companies continued to repay government money received in the bailout. Citigroup and Wells Fargo, two of the biggest, announced on Monday that they were doing precisely that.
If the banks came hat in hand to Washington a year ago to assure their survival, they returned on Monday in a much stronger position to deal with the government. As they scurry to repay the government and escape its influence over their operations, they have been fighting elements of legislation to regulate their industry more tightly.

At the same time, the banks are seeking to restore executive pay to high levels and asserting that the government’s demand that they hold bigger financial buffers against possible losses makes it hard for them to issue more loans.

During the hourlong meeting in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Mr. Obama prodded the executives to stop fighting the regulation legislation intended to deal with the problems that led to the financial crisis, White House officials said.

“I made very clear that I have no intention of letting their lobbyists thwart reforms necessary to protect the American people,” Mr. Obama said in remarks after the meeting. “If they wish to fight common sense consumer protections, that’s a fight I’m more than willing to have.”

The heads of three of the biggest companies — Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup — did not even make it to the White House meeting in person. They had waited until Monday morning to travel on commercial flights to Washington and then were held up by fog.

By contrast, James E. Rohr, PNC Financial’s chief executive, drove his own car on Sunday evening to Washington from Pittsburgh, stopping at a Wendy’s for a sandwich en route. Other chief executives made sure they would arrive on time: Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase flew into Washington on one of the bank’s private jets, while Kenneth D. Chenault of American Express took Amtrak.

Executives at the meeting said that Mr. Obama had told the missing three that he understood that their flight had been canceled. But he directed strong words at the industry afterward.
“America’s banks received extraordinary assistance from American taxpayers to rebuild their industry,” Mr. Obama said. “Now that they’re back on their feet, we expect an extraordinary commitment from them to help rebuild our economy.”

He added, “Ultimately in this country we rise and fall together; banks and small businesses, consumers and large corporations.”

In the glare of the presidential spotlight, Bank of America used the occasion to say it would increase lending to small and mid-size businesses by $5 billion next year over what it lent to them in 2009. JPMorgan Chase announced a similar increase in early November and recently experienced an increase in new applications for loans.

Wells Fargo said in a statement on Monday that it expected to increase lending in 2010 as much as 25 percent, to more than $16 billion, for firms with $20 million or less in annual revenue.
The banking executives promised Mr. Obama that they would take second looks at loans they had denied over the last year. Richard K. Davis, the chief executive of US Bancorp, told reporters after the meeting that the executives were aware of the public perception that they were profiting with hefty bonuses at taxpayer expense, and that they realized they were “under a microscope” and needed to align themselves more closely with the needs of consumers.

But he cautioned that banks had a responsibility to carefully evaluate the qualifications of each client, lest there be a repeat of the bad lending practices that contributed to the financial crisis to begin with.

“We simply want to assure that we make qualified loans,” he said.

White House officials acknowledged that beyond the legislation on Capitol Hill, the administration’s leverage to prod the bankers, particularly on lending, was limited. But Robert Gibbs, the White House spokesman, said that Mr. Obama would keep up the public pressure. “I think that the bully pulpit can be a powerful thing,” he said.

In calling the bankers to the White House, Mr. Obama was seeking to capitalize on public anger over the continuation of big bonuses for Wall Street executives, coupled with the slow pace of renewed lending by institutions bailed out by taxpayers.

During Monday’s meeting, Mr. Obama did not repeat the language he used in an interview on “60 Minutes” on CBS Sunday night, in which he termed the bank executives “fat cats.” During the meeting, “he didn’t call us any names,” Mr. Davis said, adding that “we agree viscerally that more lending needs to be done.”

But with the unemployment rate at 10 percent, the White House needs to move the conversation from visceral to specific, administration officials said. Mr. Obama pressed the bankers to come up with possible solutions, according to administration officials and industry officials. In contrast to the lecturing tones of a similar meeting last March, several people in attendance Monday described this session as more constructive.

“There were no pitchforks, no fat cat bankers,” said Mr. Rohr of PNC.

Several of the chief executives, armed with statistics about initiatives to hire new bankers, replied that they were very focused on lending. Some, like Mr. Davis of US Bancorp, raised ideas like giving a second look to previously denied loans. Others proposed cutting the red tape on Small Business Administration loans.

Mr. Obama will meet next week with representatives of smaller banks, where he is expected to sound similar tones.

Helene Cooper reported from Washington, and Eric Dash from New York.

 A meaningless conference in the Roosevelt Room of the Whitehouse among the US President and the leaders of the banking and investment banking (which are now called, categorically, "bankers").  Telling these people that they should help to stimulate the economy, jobs creation and entrepreneurial enterprise is like telling a drug cartel leader to "please stop selling cocaine, or even more people will become addicted." Serious and productive negotiations require serious incentives for change. Our elected leaders (either by popular vote, electoral college or litigation, as in the celebrated case of Bush v. Gore) are all carrot and no stick.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. Some years ago, Pacific Gas & Electric performed a wonderfully revolutionary song. It combined some of the best aspects of charismatic gospel singing with angry protest and rock and roll. I tend to skip the guitar solo in the middle. Listen and enjoy this lost 45 recording.

If the YouTube Video Player doesn't appear immediately below (it gets testy with certain browsers and settings), simply click on:

   



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Thursday, December 17, 2009

Leveraging "Emerging" Adversaries: Pre-Emptive Strategies

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Leveraging "Emerging" Adversaries: Pre-Emptive Strategies
Written by Douglas Castle (http://aboutdouglascastle,blogspot.com/)  and first published in Taking Command! (http://takingcommand.blogspot.com/).

Dear Friends:

Hyper-conservative publishers like Robert Livingston (whose articles I often disagree with, but always enjoy reading -- I read the "lefty liberal" stuff as well as the "right-wing conservative stuff" -- this keeps me "fair and balanced" [ahem]) are increasingly pointing to China's rising prominence in the global economic arena as a threat to the United States and other industrialized western nations. Tagging China as an "enemy" is useless. Viewing China as a prospective "resource" opens up a world of possibilities. Once again, perception proceeds action.

Many supposed "enemies" can be strategically positioned as assets, instead of liabilities, if we remember the following principles:

1.    An adversary can be directed to either distract or attack your other enemies. Let them fight it out while you sit on the sidelines and sip lemonade. This requires simple rumor-mongering and baiting. It is invariably effective because it feeds every sovereign power's paranoia about being defeated, either in economic reality or in international perception. The sin of pride screams out to be used as a manipulative tool, especially when it is founded upon insecurity.

2.     An adversary can become our supplier or our customer through a purely-economically themed strategy. In either case, we can be successful in using greed (another one of those doggoned sins) to manipulate an adversary into working with us if we can demonstrate a direct economic advantage without becoming entrapped in political or philosophical debate. We can create an interdependence, or the semblance of an independence which would cause our adversary to view our commerce as an integral part of its benefits and security. That having been said, we must caution ourselves against letting the other party become a sole source provider or customer...we must quietly hedge our bet by diversifying suppliers and customers. This is crucial. we do not want to be desperately dependent -- we want to appear politely dependent.

3.     Investing in an adversary (financially and/or politically) can help us to own a piece of a possible winner, much like hedging a bet or selling a stock short. Having an adversary invest in us (preferably as an equityholder and not as a creditor in corporate or governmental debt instruments) also defuses an adversary's temptation to attack us...even if this is only in the interest in safeguarding their own portfolios and positions.

If we sense an adversary's rising to prominence, we can either attack them in the earliest stages in their demonstration of intended harm, or, failing that, we can entangle them in one of the three strategies delineated above. If we are completely successful, we may find ourselves with a trading partner instead of a threat of fiscal or physical war.

On this subject, some interesting news follows, with appropriate attribution. The tone of the article and its political implications are interesting and significant. The investment consideration being promoted in the article do not necessarily represent my views. I don't give investment advice. Nowadays, I don't request any either.

In Peace and Prosperity,

Douglas Castle
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China’s Century: The Impending Threat to America and the Dollar

December 16, 2009 by John Myers for PERSONAL LIBERTY DIGEST
China’s Century: The Impending Threat to America and the Dollar

“India conquered and dominated China culturally for 20 centuries without ever having to send a single soldier across her border”—Hu Shih, 20th Century scholar.

We are a little more than two weeks away from the second decade of the 21st century. More and more it is beginning to look like China’s century.
It’s been 60 years since the Communists seized power. According to Fareed Zakaria, the host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria’s GPS, “Mao Zedong dragged the country through a series of catastrophic convulsions that destroyed its economic, technological and intellectual capital.”

But in December 1978 Mao’s successor, Deng Xiaoping, gave his famous cat speech which marked the fulcrum upon which the giant nation turned. At a Communist Party meeting he urged economic development over ideology. “It doesn’t matter if it is a black cat or a white cat,” said Deng. “As long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat.”

The question three decades later is what exactly is the Chinese cat hunting? Is it cooperation with the United States and the continued development of the global economy, or is it the relentless pursuit of global power and resource wealth? All the evidence is not yet in, but what we do know seems to indicate the latter with all its chilling ramifications.

But any discussion of China has to be first and foremost about its incredible economy, for the nation has risen towards superpower status in such little time. It is an economy that has doubled every eight years for the past three decades!
Just consider the following:
  • China has foreign exchange reserves totaling almost $2.2 trillion, double the next largest holder, Japan.
  • The number of cars driven in China doubles every three years.
  • China is the world’s largest producer of coal, steel and cement.
  • Twenty of the world’s fastest growing cities are all in China.
  • China manufactures two-thirds of all the world’s photocopiers, microwave ovens, DVD players and shoes.
  • Starbucks predicts that sometime next year it will have more cafes in China than in the U.S.
  • China is the world’s second largest defense spender (behind the USA).
It’s the final item that reveals the claws in China’s carefully crafted Panda Bear self-portrait.

A 2006 U.S. Department of Defense assessment of China was chilling. According to that report the Pentagon viewed China as the next big military threat to the U.S. “There are some real concerns about China’s military modernization,” said Adam Segal, senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Then in 2009 a report from the Council on Foreign Relations said that China has been steadily building up its strategic and conventional capabilities since the 1990s.

According to U.S. defense experts, in 1990 China had a “bare-bones” military: basic capabilities, but nothing sophisticated or top-of-the-line. But two decades of double-digit spending increases have completely changed that picture.
The Pentagon estimates China’s total military spending for 2007 to be between $97 billion and $139 billion, as compared to $52 billion reported by China.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations most of that spending has gone to building a sophisticated, modern military: a large, increasingly capable fleet, an air force stocked with Russian warplanes, and technical strides which have improved China’s ballistic missile arsenal, as well as satellite surveillance, radar and interception capabilities.

“(U.S.) Hawks insist that the Chinese are seeking to drive the U.S. military out of the Pacific, and make it Beijing’s lake rather than what it has been for decades, an American pond,” said Time Magazine in an April 2009 issue.
China is constructing a nuclear aircraft carrier with a lethal and global reach to support its growing fleet of technologically advanced nuclear submarines.

Why is Beijing arming itself to the teeth? Perhaps for global dominance. Perhaps just for the natural resources it needs to sustain its growth: Core among them being oil.

This year Asia will have consumed about 50 percent of Middle East exported oil. China understands it might have to count on its military to lock-in future supplies.

That could mean another arms race or worse. That is something the U.S. can ill afford.

Another Golden Empire

China is also arming itself with gold.

According to the China Gold Association, Chinese demand for gold could total more than 16 million ounces this year, up from 12.9 million ounces in 2008.

China has also become the world’s largest gold producer, having surpassed South Africa in 2007.
“China is likely to become the number-one supplier and consumer of gold this year,” said Rozanna Wozniak, investment research manager at the World Gold Council.

On Nov. 31, China’s Economic Information Daily published remarks by a senior Chinese official indicating that Dubai’s debt crisis could be a good opportunity for China to purchase gold and oil assets.
Ji Xiaonan (Chairman of the Supervisory Committee overseeing large state-owned enterprises) was quoted as saying that the Dubai debt crisis "could give China an opportunity to put some of its foreign exchange reserves into gold or oil."
Just two weeks ago Ji Xiaonan said that China should increase the amount of gold it holds in reserves to reduce potential losses from a depreciating dollar. Currently China has relatively small gold reserves, just 1,200 metric tons or about 7 percent of the world total.

But Ji Xiaonan wants to change that. He wants China gold reserves to reach 6,000 metric tons within three-to-five years and possibly to 10,000 metric tons in eight to 10 years. (Ten thousand metric tons represents 350 million ounces of gold or about four years of global gold production.)

Money is Not a Problem

China has a lot of money to invest in gold and other real assets. It has foreign currency holdings of $2 trillion which include $800 billion in U.S. Treasury debt. With that kind of dollar exposure it is little wonder that China wants to increase its gold reserves 10-fold.
This will be an unprecedented national build-up of official gold reserves (in fact for the past 50 years most nations have been net sellers of gold). China’s radical increase in its bullion reserves is likely a harbinger for much higher prices for the Midas metal. How high is anyone’s guess, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see gold above $1,500 by next spring.

Action to take: Don’t be surprised by a correction in the price of gold going into January. I think that over the very short-term the bull is tired. Over the long-term the bull market in gold is very much alive. I recommend you use any correction to add to your physical gold holdings in anticipation of considerably higher prices in 2010.

Yours for real wealth and good health,
John Myers
Myers’ Energy and Gold Report

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globalism, internationalism, cartels, CFR, NGO, UN, EU, WTO, IMF, central bank, outsourcing, offshoring, capital markets, import, export, international trade, strategic alliances, e-commerce, entrepreneurship, social networking, banking, finance, trade, ventures, business, securities, stock exchanges, indexes, futurism, trends, citizen ambassadorship, enterprise, capitalism, international politics, commodities, prime rate, LIBOR, foreign currencies, foreign exchange, blogs, blogging, bloggers, aol, google, yahoo, msn, AP, news, media alerts, world government, world governments, international affairs, treaties, tariffs, trade restrictions, marketing, advertising, business development, arbitrage, obtaining capital, promotion, publicity, EU, NATO, military affairs, government regulation, trade restrictions, liquidity crisis, business opportunities, web-based businesses, communication, communications, technology, intelligence, embassies, consulates, business resources, Douglas Castle,The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, international politics, elections, time management, cyberspace, AI, energy, industry, productivity, Mixx, Digg, Technorati, Sphere, Facebook, YouTube, MySpace, LinkedIn, advertising, economics, strategy, management, cooperation, widgets, blidgets, links, incoterms, CCH, UCC, freight forwarding, custom house brokers, diversity, employment, culture, micro-loans, technological convergence, trends, financial planning, FOREX, futures, stock index, inflation, recession, sub-contracting, Department of Commerce, the next generation, amnesty, humanitarianism, foreign aid, philanthropy, charity, cooperation, peaceful cooexistence, a world without walls, The National Networker, Artificial Intelligence, AI, symbiosis, Interworked Cooperative Business Communities, ICBC, Lingovations, commerce versus combat, trends, analysis, imagination, innovation, introspection, exponentialism and the mastermind, exponentiality, predicting the future, shaping the future, adaptation, evolution, twitter, google, social media, networking groups, tendencies, statistics, joint venturing metrics, prediction, strategic interdependence, communications technologies, skype, New World Order, The 1% Rule, Mutually Assured Destruction, imperialism, fuedalism, freedom, peace, prosperity, demography, allocation of wealth, Digg, Zimbio, TNNW BUZZWORKS, Articles by Douglas Castle, search engines, entreprenership, business tools, networking, relationships, convincing, negotiating, energy, parapsychology, systems, chaos, complexity, perspective, entropy, behavioral psychology, systems of government, sovereignty, ethics, objectivisim, subjectivism, relativism, multidimensionalism, perspective, inflation, recession, valuations, intellectual property, trust, balance of power, balance of trade, balance of trade, gross domestic foreign investment, indexing, growth industries, commodities, options, exhanges, control strategies, risk evaluation, survivalism...

Thursday, December 10, 2009

The End of Computers - As We've Come to Know Them

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The End of Computers - As We've Come to Know Them

Dear Readers:

Within a short period of time, perhaps these next two years, I forecast that an enormous change in computer technology will make current technology obsolete. This will impact every computer manufacturer, and every computer user, as well as scores of merchants in the business reselling computers and hardware-related paraphernalia. It is a large enough consideration to be more than an inconvenience -- it contains the potential for a redistribution of wealth and power between companies and among individuals. This type of quantum jump may effect such luminaries as Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, the Big Blue Crew at IBM and many of the suppliers and contractors to their monolithic and iconic companies. They might do well to worry; they might do better to read articles like this one.

The below advertisement popped up on my computer screen early today. It was sponsored by The Motley Fool, a fascinating collection of information and articles on trends principally relating to the direction of technology, and, more specifically, on technology-based investment opportunities and strategies. In fact, I am adding The Motley Fool to the list of sitelinks on the GLOBAL FUTURIST. I do not offer financial, investment, tax or accounting or legal advice -- I do not necessarily endorse the views promulgated or the investments recommended by The Motley Fool, but I believe that the mere publication of this advertisement, along with other intelligence I have been gathering for these past three months indicate that all trend-watchers and Global Futurists should be on the lookout for the emergence of a radical change in technology. Very often there is a highly poitive correlation between these announcements and the actual technological events which follow. Whether they are self-fulfilling prophesies or cold predictions is not the issue. The issue, as Milton Friedman once said, is "Can they predict ?" A mentor of mine once told me that "today's dream is tomorrow's reality." A dedicated Futurist keeps his eyes on the dreams and musings of others, especially when similar dreams seem to spring forth from a variety of sources.

Some general signs of change:

  • Smaller computers, greater storage and processing capacity;
  • Increased cross-pollination and consolidation of computational, information access and communications capabilities;
  • Increased computer mobility, increased storage in smaller "containers" or plug-ins;
  • Increased software which directs, controls and even emulates (if not replaces) hardware functions;
  • Smallerization (a lingovation) of virtually all processing and storage functions;
  • Increased utilization and improvement of wireless capabilities;
  • Quiet by significant progress in Nanotechnologies;
  • Experimentation with "jellyware" (the actual integration of the human mind and the computer database and functions -- i.e., in the simplest terms, downloading data and capabilities into the human brain as if it were the ultimate computer itself), and with RFID implantation.
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The Two Words Bill Gates Doesn't Want You to Hear...

Plus, the 2 companies poised to rule the post-Microsoft world

On October 30, 2005, something incredible happened...
In Redmond, Washington, one of the world's richest -- and most powerful -- businessmen sent an urgent memo to his top engineers and most-trusted managers.
It sounded the alarm that a very disruptive "wave" was about to wash over the entire world -- forever changing the way we get information and do business.
It also warned this would wipe out the $200 billion business empire he'd spent his life building.
Meanwhile, a few hundred miles south, on the banks of the Columbia River, a mysterious outfit known only as "Design, LLC," quietly constructed two massive windowless warehouses.
This mammoth undertaking was code named "Project 2," and the International Herald Tribune described the towering monolithic structures as "looming like an information-age nuclear plant."
This may sound like something out of a Tom Clancy novel, but you'll want to have all the facts because...

Merrill Lynch estimates this "wave" has grown into a $160 billion tsunami.

And experts say it's going to upend a $1 trillion industry. Yet very few investors understand just how huge it's going to be.
That's why it's crucial to take the next few minutes to read this report in its entirety.
At the very least, you'll get the full story so you can decide for yourself if you'll be front and center when the big money starts rolling in.
But be warned, the smart money is on the move...
A handful of investors are already quietly positioning themselves to cash in on this incredible economic shift. Soon, tens of thousands will be rushing to join them.

One of the most lucrative investment opportunities we'll ever encounter

The next great technological revolution is already under way.
And now that the last pieces are falling into place, the floodgates are beginning to open.
Which is exactly where you come in...Just ask David Gardner, co-founder of The Motley Fool. He's convinced that this technological shift will dump millions of dollars into the portfolios of investors just like you.
You've probably seen David on CNBC discussing his favorite growth stocks with some of the nation's other top-tier equity analysts. Or perhaps you've read one of his many best-selling investment books...
Or maybe you're just familiar with some of his remarkable stock recommendations... eBay in 1999... Starbucks in 1998... AOL in 1994... Amgen in 1998... Amazon in 1997.
Regardless, it's not hard to see why Money.com says he's "among the most widely followed stock advisors in the world."
And surely you can understand why anytime David gets excited about an investment opportunity, people stand up and take notice...
He's been closely tracking the development of this blockbuster technology and the 3 dominant players heading the revolution.
These are the companies he believes will rule their respective industries over the next 5 to 10 years and hand investors life-changing wealth along the way.
Recent developments have him particularly excited about one of the companies. Right now he considers it the No. 1 way to profit from this coming technological boom. And he's telling his followers to snap up shares immediately.
To see why he's so convinced about this company, you must learn the six traits he looks for in a growth stock -- and how they have led him to companies that have soared 231%, 233%, 375% and even 478% in just the past four years.
But first, a little bit more about this amazing technology and why, once again...

The Unimaginable Is Fast Becoming a Reality

You probably remember when computers took up entire rooms and were used only by companies that needed to do intense mathematical calculations.
That all changed when Intel unveiled the microprocessor and a geeky college dropout started writing software with his former high school pal.
Thanks to the virtual desktop they developed, the PC quickly replaced the mainframe as the center of corporate computing and began showing up in homes across America.
Before long, companies began building interoffice networks so that their employees could run programs like Microsoft Word and Excel on their PCs and also access programs, files, and printers from a central server.
But this model was far from perfect.
Due to a lack of standards in computing hardware and software, competing products were rarely compatible -- making PC networks far more inefficient than their mainframe predecessors.
In fact, most servers ended up being used as single-purpose machines that ran a single software application or database.
And every time a company needed to add a new application, it was forced to expand its data centers, replace or reprogram old systems, and hire IT technicians to keep everything running.
As a result, global IT spending jumped from under $100 billion a year in the early 1970s to over $1 trillion a year by the turn of the century.

Here's the dirty secret behind this mind-boggling growth -- and the two words that will put an end to the party

IT consulting firm IDC reports that every dollar a company spends on a Microsoft product results in an additional $8 of IT expenses.
And one IT expert admits, "Trillions of dollars that companies have invested into information technology have gone to waste."
Yet, companies have had no choice but to run these obscenely expensive and highly inefficient networks.
But that's all about to change...
And that's precisely why the two words "cloud computing" scare the hell out of Bill Gates.
You see, thanks to the thousands of miles of fiber-optic cable laid during the late 1990s, the speed of computer networks has finally caught up to the speed of the computer processors.
Suddenly computers that were once incompatible and isolated are now linked in a giant network, or "cloud."
As a result, computing is fast becoming a utility in much the same way that electricity did...

"The next sea change is upon us." -- Bill Gates

Think back a few years -- anytime you wanted to type a letter, create a spreadsheet, edit a photo, or play a game, you had to go to the store, buy the software, and install it on your computer.
But nowadays, if you want to look up restaurants on Google... find directions on MapQuest... watch a video on YouTube... or sell furniture on Craigslist... all you need is a computer with an Internet connection.
Although these activities require you to use your PC, none of the content you are accessing or the applications you are running are actually stored on your computer -- instead they're stored at a giant data center somewhere in the "cloud."
And you don't give any of it a second thought... just like you don't think twice about where the electricity is coming from when you plug an appliance into the wall.
But cloud computing isn't going to be just a modern convenience -- it's going to be an enormous industry.

You see, everyone from individuals to multinational corporations can now simply tap into the "cloud" to get all the things they used to have to supply and maintain themselves. This will save some companies millions and make others billions.

"Is cloud computing the next big thing?"

That's the title of an article in PC Magazine.
The answer was an overwhelming yes. And PC Magazine isn't the only one taking note of this sweeping trend...
Computing Heads for the Clouds
Computing Heads for the Clouds
Computing Heads for the Clouds
The Economist claims, "As computing moves online, the sources of power and money will increasingly be enormous 'computing clouds.'"
David Hamilton of the Financial Post says this technology "has the potential to shower billions in revenues on companies that embrace it."
And Nicholas Carr, former executive editor of the Harvard Business Review, has even written an entire book on the subject, entitled The Big Switch. In it, he asserts: "The PC age is giving way to a new era: the utility age."
He goes on to make this prediction: "Rendered obsolete, the traditional PC is replaced by a simple terminal -- a 'thin client' that's little more than a monitor hooked up to the Internet."
While that may sound far-fetched, in the corporate market, sales of these "thin clients" have been growing at over 20 percent per year -- far outpacing the sales of PCs.
According to market-research firm IDC, the U.S. is now home to more than 7,000 data centers just like the one constructed on the banks of the Columbia River in 2005.
And the number of servers operating within these massive data centers is expected to grow to nearly 16 million by 2010 -- that's three times as many as a decade ago.

"Data centers have become as vital to the functioning of society as power stations." -- The Economist 

The simple truth is that cloud computing is becoming as big a part of our everyday lives as cell phones or cable television.
And one company is shaping up to be a remarkable way for investors like you to cash in on the fast-moving cloud computing technology.
You may already know what it is... and you may have even guessed that it's the real face behind Design, LLC.
But what you may not realize is that this is still an excellent time to get invested -- despite what many so-called "experts" in the financial media might be telling you... 

Buying This Tech Juggernaut Today Is Like Buying Microsoft in 1990

Don't forget, even after the dot-com collapse and the recent market sell-off, every $10,000 invested in Microsoft would now be worth over $466,601.
Even a modest $3,000 investment would have grown into more than $139,980!
Just imagine what you could do with that kind of money...
Now imagine being given a second chance to secure that kind of profit.
Well, look here... this is your second chance.
You see, like Microsoft in the early 1990s, Google [Nasdaq: GOOG] is just getting started.
It's already won the search engine war, set the standard for online advertising, and turned the company's name into a word tens of millions of people use daily.
And now it's fast becoming synonymous with the future of computing...
Over 500,000 companies -- including GE [NYSE: GE] and Procter & Gamble [NYSE: PG] -- have already signed up for Google Apps.
This grab bag of business applications can be purchased and run over the Web for just $50 per year and is just one of many Google products now giving Microsoft a run for its money.
Considering that Google Apps costs just one-tenth of what a traditional business software suite does, it's no surprise that more than 2,000 businesses are signing up per day.
No wonder the Financial Post says, "The cost savings in offering scaled-down versions of large enterprise software is making cloud computing a huge business."
But at just $50 a pop, you might be wondering how big this business can really get.
Industry research firm Gartner, Inc., says the market for Internet-based software hit $5.1 billion last year and conservatively estimates it will more than double to $11.5 billion by 2011.
But don't forget, this is just one small part of the giant and highly profitable cloud computing world.
Given its dominance over the online world, massive network of strategic partnerships, and unmatched ability to innovate, you can bet the great majority of the fortunes generated by cloud computing will flow through Google's coffers.
Even so, you may be wondering...

Isn't it too late to buy Google?

Not at all!
Well, let's just say this isn't the first time David has recommended a stock after the hotshots on Wall Street declared it was "too late"...
Back in 2005, he recommended robotic surgery specialist Intuitive Surgical to a small group of opportunistic investors.
At the time, shares were selling for $44.17. One year prior, shares had sold for $17.46, and a year before that they were selling for just $8.68.
You read that right... Intuitive Surgical had risen 500% in the two years before he recommended it -- and that scared lesser investors off.
But this visionary investor recognized that Intuitive Surgical was both "top dog" and "first mover" in its industry and still had plenty of room to run...
Shares traded as high as $359.59, and even after the recent market downturn, those who followed his lead are sitting on a whopping 478% gain.
Had you joined them, you could have turned $10,000 into a brand-new car... or a year or two of college tuition... or a prestigious golf-club membership -- and all in just 3 short years.
And this wasn't just some sort of lucky break or fluke, either.
You see, David's world-famous career began when he caught the financial media's attention by recommending AOL in the summer of 1994 - after it had quadrupled in just 12 short months.
Of course, the story is the same with AOL -- he recognized it as both a top dog and a first mover in an important emerging industry and knew it was only getting started.
Six years later, AOL was a 200-bagger, turning every $10,000 invested into a whopping $2 million -- and this growth investor into a living legend.
Here are just a few more of the top dogs and first movers he's uncovered recently:
  • Myriad Genetics -- locked in 252% gains
  • Millennium Pharmaceuticals -- locked in 142% gains
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals -- up 375%... and counting!
Surely you'd love to have gains like that in your portfolio... Any investor would.
Well, you're in luck because now David is extremely excited about the incredible profit potential of 3 companies he calls...

The 3 Kings of Cloud Computing

These are 3 exceptionally well-run companies that David and his team of cutting-edge equity analysts have identified as both top dogs and first movers in their respective industries.
You already heard about Google, and just ahead you'll get all the details on the others -- including David's No. 1 cloud computing pick. 
But first, you're probably wondering how David can be so sure about these companies. It's quite simple really -- they all have...

The 6 traits of a Rule Breaker

David begins his search by looking for what equity analysts call "top dogs" and "first movers."
A "top dog" is a company that dominates its industry... and a "first mover" is a company with a technology or product so revolutionary that it disrupts an existing industry and creates an entirely new one.
On the rare occasion that you find a company that is both a top dog and a first mover, the chances are pretty good that you've found your next big winner...
Just think of eBay in the online auction market... Amazon in the online retail market... or Netflix in the DVD-rental market (David led investors to big gains on all three).
These companies redefined the way business was done, launched entirely new industries, and continue to dominate those industries to this day. And you don't need me to tell you how handsomely they've rewarded shareholders along the way.
So you can see why David and his Rule Breakers teamwork around the clock to find companies that are both top dogs and first movers.
But they don't stop there... Because David discovered long ago that in order to find companies that will deliver truly life-changing investment returns, you have to break the rules and go against much of what passes for "wisdom" on Wall Street.
That's why he searches for companies with...
  • a sustainable competitive advantage that can be exploited for years to come
  • strong past price appreciation
  • excellent management
  • strong consumer appeal
And here's the big one...
  • documented proof that the financial media thinks it's "overvalued"
Remember, many of David's biggest winners were recommended after all the fast-talking experts on Wall Street already declared you'd missed your chance to buy.
And it's much the same story with the second king of cloud computing he's recommending you buy today...

A Bona Fide Rule Breaker With Very Real Profits

Not only does this company meet all of David's criteria for a classic Rule Breaker, but it also has a stranglehold on a niche market that's absolutely essential to the future of cloud computing.
This rising tech superstar designs extremely complex software that allows central servers to function in the first place.
While the market for this software sits at roughly $1 billion today, it is estimated it will soar to $5 billion by 2011 -- an astonishing 50% compound growth rate.
And thanks to various patents, a considerable head start, and immense technical know-how, there is very little chance competitors will be able to wrestle the lion's share of that $5 billion away from this company.
So it's no wonder over the past year, VMware [NYSE: VMW] has seen its revenue climb 9% and its earnings per share also climb 9%. Not to mention, returns on equity and invested capital have never dropped below double digits.
But here's what has really caught David's attention...
A recent shake-up in management has caused shares to tumble well below their fair value -- giving investors who act now a rare opportunity to snap up an incredible growth stock on the cheap.
But ambitious investors might be able to do even better...
You see, David is convinced another revolutionary company is changing everything about how we use computers. As more and more people and businesses go online, its rampant success will continue -- and richly reward savvy investors who buy shares now...

This Company Makes the Internet Fly

When David first recommended this company to the
Rule Breakers community back in 2005, he admitted it wasn't "cheap." Since then, it's up 48% -- handing our group some nice gains.

David still admits it's not cheap... but with the arrival of cloud computing, he's more excited than ever about its potential to make investors rich.
In fact, its potential currently outshines both Google and VMware -- making it the No. 1 cloud computing play for new money.
You see, it works behind the scenes to make sure you can access everything the Web has to offer at lightning-fast speeds.
And thanks to the ever-growing number of people now using the Internet to do everything from watch movies to buy houses, this once-flailing refugee of the dot-com meltdown is now one of the most important tech companies in the world.
Apple [Nasdaq: AAPL], Microsoft [Nasdaq: MSFT], Sony [NYSE: SNE], and Nintendo [NTDOY.PK] are among its top clients -- and they're all more than happy to pay up for the quality this company consistently delivers.

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While this usually runs somewhere in the neighborhood of $275,000 per year, more and more complex applications are coming online all the time -- giving this company even greater pricing power.
At last count, it had more than 100 clients paying $1 million or more per year. So it's no wonder that cash from operations has more than tripled from $83 million in 2005 to over $381 million today... Or that the cash on its balance sheet has grown from just $92 million to a whopping $321 million.
You can bet that this growth will only accelerate as cloud computing becomes an even more vital part of our personal and professional lives.
And because it is both a top dog and a first mover, it has been able to gain an almost insurmountable lead in market share -- allowing it to sport superb operating margins.
Gross margins currently sit at an incredible 76%; meanwhile, net margins have climbed to an all-time high of 18% -- and continue to grow.
All things considered, you can understand why David thinks this will be one of the most dominant players in the cloud computing world for years to come.
And by becoming a Rule Breaker, you can get its name and stake your claim before the big money gets behind it.
But you may be asking yourself...

Is now really a good time to be buying growth stocks?

Sure, the market looks pretty grim.
But David's not worried.
For one thing, our current economic situation bears a striking similarity to the economic downturn of the early 1990s. And Morningstar reports that during that recession, growth stocks more than doubled the return of "value" stocks.
For another thing, SmartMoney recently confirmed that "growth stocks can excel even if the broad market continues to stumble." In fact, it reported that right now, "analysts expect better profit prospects for growth stocks than for value stocks."
Money manager Dan Becker says, "Growth is as rare as a diamond, and everyone's looking for it."
Meaning, right now, we have a historic opportunity to snap up Hope Diamond investments at cubic zirconia prices.

A small number of investors will build bold fortunes...

Will you be one of them? You could be. 
How? Simply join our Rule Breakers community absolutely without any risk.
This is hands down your best opportunity to ride the wave of cloud computing all the way to massive profits -- and get full details on the No. 1 company spearheading the charge.
You see, at Rule Breakers, we stand behind every piece of advice, insight, and recommendation we make, with 100% confidence. Your complete satisfaction is guaranteed -- or your money back!
This is our "keep everything" & "risk nothing" DOUBLE GUARANTEE

One of Motley Fool Rule Breakers' HUGE advantages!

A small sampling of people David has sat down with over the past few years...
  • Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos
  • Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman
  • Best Buy CEO Dick Schulze
  • Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban
  • Marvel Enterprises Vice-Chairman Peter Cuneo
  • Stanford economist Thomas Sowell
  • Former JetBlue CEO David Neeleman
  • FedEx CEO Fred Smith
  • Former Coca-Cola CFO Gary Fayard
  • Vanguard founder John Bogle
  • Former Sysco CEO Charles Cotros
  • Former Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach
  • Electronic Arts CEO John Riccitiello
  • Third Avenue Funds chairman Martin Whitman
  • Nobel Prize-winning economist Vernon Smith
  • Whole Foods CEO John Mackey
  • Staples President and CEO Ron Sargent
  • Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel
  • Netflix CEO Reed Hastings
  • Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz
  • Nucor CEO Dan Dimico
  • Legg Mason Funds SVP Robert Hagstrom
...to hammer out the best moneymaking strategy for the months and years ahead! 
Go ahead and take a good look at every breakout company we've uncovered -- including the No. 1 king of cloud computing you read about above. At Rule Breakers, you get all the details on the companies that will change the world over the next 10 to 15 years...
And then if for any reason you're not totally thrilled... just have us send your money back, up to the last day of your first month. NO QUESTIONS ASKED.
What's more, if you decide you'd like to opt out at any point after your first month, you'll be entitled to the full dollar value of the remainder of your membership term.
After all, you'll be the first to know about tomorrow's next great companies and have the rare chance to get these fortune makers into your portfolio before the masses catch on and drive prices out of reach.

How much are these potential fortune makers worth?

Thousands of dollars? Sure. But you won't have to pay thousands to get your hands on them.
That's because, when you join us at Rule Breakers, you can put a team of experts -- including Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner; tech guru Tim Beyers; biotech whiz Charly Travers; nanotech expert Karl Thiel; and early adopter expert Rick Munarriz -- to work for you for just a fraction of that.
No other team will work harder on your behalf -- doing all the research, making the contacts, poring over the financial books, doing the key calculations -- to make sure you get the best investments for the months and years ahead! Look at this...
You can gain access to every top recommendation on the
Motley Fool Rule Breakers 
scorecard, plus get all our updates and reports, plus access to the members-only website that archives everything covered by Motley Fool Rule Breakers, all at the regular membership rate of $199 -- a bargain in itself.

But when you join us through this special offer today... you can knock $50 right off the top!

There's only one catch: To take advantage of this remarkable offer, you must join through this report today!
Once you are a member, you'll receive...
High-growth stock opportunities in every issue: Every issue of Motley Fool Rule Breakers features two picks from sectors like biotech, nanotech, next-generation technologies, and alternative energy. We're not a fan of "sound bites." Every stock we select comes with an in-depth company profile, product description, competitive analysis, risk analysis, and discussion of the company's finances and sales prospects. Plus, you get your tough questions answered in the detailed Q&A.
Valuable insight and feedback from our Rule Breakers network: Got an investing question? Post it on the board. Odds are that another Rule Breaker or one of our analysts will have the answer you're looking for. Every day you can talk with folks who are out there in the market, digging deep to find those next breakthrough investments that could hand you a lifetime of wealth.
In-depth CEO interviews available nowhere else: Over the years, David Gardner has sat down with the top CEOs and power players like Jeff Bezos... Meg Whitman... Mark Cuban... John Bogle... Terry Semel... and Howard Schultz. As part of the Rule Breakers family, you'll have exclusive access to all the powerful moneymaking insights and timely profit opportunities they revealed to him.
As with any truly great offer -- this one's only available for a limited time!
Simply click here to join us and begin securing a lifetime of wealth today!
All returns as of October 16, 2009, unless otherwise stated. 
####
I say to all of my Futurist Friends. A Change is in the wind, and we would all be wise to investigate it. Now.

As always, your comments are welcome and profoundly appreciated.

Faithfully,
p.s. You can subscribe to THE NATIONAL NETWORKER Newsletter and The BLUE TUESDAY Report for free at http://twitlik.com/IN. Do it today.

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