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FORECASTING AND FUTURISM:
USING “UNCONVENTIONAL” INDICATORS
Should Unconventional
Predictive Systems Be Used By Forecasters?
By Douglas E. Castle, From
The Global Futurist Blog
In forecasting and in
futurism, I believe that it is best not to exclude any predictive
system or indicator, regardless of how
unconventional or seemingly –
superstitious, from consideration. What is likely a great deal more
important is just how much weight to assign to each of these systems
and indicators. Going one step further, the more of these systems
that one uses (assuming that each is given appropriate consideration
or “weight” due to its historical correlation with the actual
occurrence of events) in a multivariate prediction model, the better
the quality and reliability of the forecast.
In a configuration being
used by a forecaster where there appears to be a confluence amongst a
large number of these predictive systems, both scientific and
anecdotal, the more likely the outcome and the validity of the
particular event being forecast. Plainly speaking, when all of the
indicators in all of these systems point in the same direction and at
the same time, the greater the likelihood of a given event's
occurrence. Let's call this Douglas E. Castle's Theory Of Predictive
Confluence. I like the sound of it.
Given that most
self-proclaimed “Futurists” [i.e., pundits, gurus and prophets –
I'm grinning now...] base their predictions either upon an
amalgamation of predictions made by other forecasters or
trend-spotters, or upon a combination of the extrapolation of past
trends and events in combination with some applied imagination, I
refuse to rule any potentially predictive system “out” simply
because it is associated with the seemingly supernatural or
superstitious.
In the recent past, it has
been repeatedly demonstrated that when a significant number of
supposedly credible authoritative sources predict an event,
especially in the capital markets, it tends to come true; this, to
me, is less about prediction and more about a self-fulfilling
prophesy based upon a “herd movement” mentality.
In the simplest example, if
a large number of these authorities and experts are predicting a
bank's imminent collapse (regardless of any real financial data to
support the prediction), there will be a high probability of
depositors running to the bank to withdraw their funds in order to
place tham at a “safer” institution, and, if the bank's shares
are traded on a public exchange, it is also highly probable that the
market price of the shares will take a precipitous dive. In this
case, the future was actually made, and not merely predicted because
of the influence of the forecasters on the behavior of consumers and
investors. This is a kind of “forced future.”
In my forecasting, I use a
recipe comprised of these ingredients:
An extrapolation based
upon correlative history and an application of my imagination;
A Prediction Equation
based upon all types of systems, both conventional and
unconventional; and
A composite of the
predictions of other notable and influential futurists.
In the past, I have found
this recipe to be the best for both short-term and longer-term
forecasts.
Enjoy the spectacle of the
Blood Moon in particular, and more generally, open your mind to all
predictive systems and indicators – they all exist, some for
thousands of years, for a reason. I choose to keep an open mind and
be receptive, as I believe every businessperson, investor and
futurist should.
Douglas E. Castle
NOTE:
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED BY
THE READER AS BEING LEGAL, FINANCIAL, TAX, ACCOUNTING, ECONOMIC OR
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SOLICITATION FOR THE PURCHASE OF SECURITIES OR OTHER INVESTMENT
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INTENDED FOR GENERAL INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND REPRESENTS THE
VIEW OF THE AUTHOR ONLY.
THIS
ARTICLE IS COPYRIGHT 2014 BY DOUGLAS E. CASTLE, WITH ALL RIGHTS
RESERVED. ANY REPRODUCTION, TRANSMITTAL OR DISTRIBUTION OF THIS
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